Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Dobbo]

Thanks @IanFarquharson - I expect BA to move into the new T2 - I would be surprised if the investment is not part of this move.

 

[Dobbo]

The BA lounge investment will come when they move to T2.

Great minds...

 

[ethanegcc]

The BA lounge investment will come when they move to T2.

They won't spend money on something that now has a very limited lifespan, but I've heard a few MAN based airlines will really up their lounge game once T2 re-opens.

Possibly Virgin?

And, if BA are planning a lounge for T2, does this suggest Level Low-Cost TATL isn't the intention? I assume Cathay and Qatar customers would be able to use the BA lounge also.

 

[Philbky]

Third, I don't agree that the VFR market to Australasia has declined like Canada. I think it remains strong with significant two way flows.

I have to disagree there in particular respect to New Zealand. The decline started with the passing of the generation which emigrated from the UK between 1945 and 1960. It was never strong in the first place as a combination of distance, time needed for a worthwhile trip and lack of competition on the route conspired to keep fares high. BA pulled out of New Zealand years ago as the route was unsustainable and, indeed ts presence in Australia is much reduced, damaged by the ME3. Virgin Atlantic failed to sustain its route to Sydney also.

Going back to New Zealand in particular, the bulk of the UK traffic is tourist without family ties, many on discounted round the world tickets - and that applies in both directions. I have family in NZ and my last two trips, in 2014 and 2016 were on multi stop round the world discounted tickets, including Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia Pacific islands and the USA. The first covered 11 sectors, included 3 domestic Australian sectors and cost £2100 London to London, the second covered 10 sectors including 3 US domestic and one NZ domestic and came to £2350. Business traffic between the UK and NZ is hardly massive. New Zealand's finance and economy sectors are more geared to S E Asia, India and the west coast of the USA than to Europe.

I go back to my very first point. In the 35 years ANZ has been serving London on its own account it has never expanded, indeed the current 777-300 operation offers fewer seats than the previous B747-400 offering and there is nothing I can see which will change that - not even Brexit!

 

[Dobbo]

The BA lounge investment will come when they move to T2.

They won't spend money on something that now has a very limited lifespan, but I've heard a few MAN based airlines will really up their lounge game once T2 re-opens.

If I had to guess:

• VS - club house.
• BA - depends on their long haul plans but I think they'll want their own lounge unless OW pony up.
• Emirates - this will be a new, probably very expensive one.
• Etihad - as above.
• Star/OW lounges - between them they should be able to provide a decent lounge offering - particularly OW.
• Escape/1903 - I bet these are also provided.

 

[User001]

The lounges should be:

Emirates, Etihad, Qatar, BA/OneWorld, escape, 1903, aspire, Lounge 23, clubhouse, V-room and 2 more yet undisclosed. There will be a whole floor dedicated to lounges.

I've not heard about a Star alliance lounge, but, given the level of star flights now, I wouldn't be surprised to see one.

The new escape loung will be a rather large one too.

 

[Jerry]

The lounges should be:

Emirates, Etihad, Qatar, BA/OneWorld, escape, 1903, aspire, Lounge 23, clubhouse, V-room and 2 more yet undisclosed. There will be a whole floor dedicated to lounges.

I've not heard about a Star alliance lounge, but, given the level of star flights now, I wouldn't be surprised to see one.

The new escape loung will be a rather large one too.

Does KLM and Air France fly into the same terminal as Virgin and Delta? I'm just wondering if Skyteam have a lounge at MAN?

 

[User001]

AF/KL currently use T3 while VS and DL use T2.

SV also in Skyteam but also use T2.

 

[Dobbo]

If the two undisclosed are Star and Skyteam that would make sense...

 

[Philbky]

Third, I don't agree that the VFR market to Australasia has declined like Canada. I think it remains strong with significant two way flows.

I have to disagree there in particular respect to New Zealand. The decline started with the passing of the generation which emigrated from the UK between 1945 and 1960. It was never strong in the first place as a combination of distance, time needed for a worthwhile trip and lack of competition on the route conspired to keep fares high. BA pulled out of New Zealand years ago as the route was unsustainable and, indeed ts presence in Australia is much reduced, damaged by the ME3. Virgin Atlantic failed to sustain its route to Sydney also.

Going back to New Zealand in particular, the bulk of the UK traffic is tourist without family ties, many on discounted round the world tickets - and that applies in both directions. I have family in NZ and my last two trips, in 2014 and 2016 were on multi stop round the world discounted tickets, including Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia Pacific islands and the USA. The first covered 11 sectors, included 3 domestic Australian sectors and cost £2100 London to London, the second covered 10 sectors including 3 US domestic and one NZ domestic and came to £2350. Business traffic between the UK and NZ is hardly massive. New Zealand's finance and economy sectors are more geared to S E Asia, India and the west coast of the USA than to Europe.

I go back to my very first point. In the 35 years ANZ has been serving London on its own account it has never expanded, indeed the current 777-300 operation offers fewer seats than the previous B747-400 offering and there is nothing I can see which will change that - not even Brexit!

 

[Land23R]

An interesting debate. I suspect Phil is correct about the VFR market declining. However the leisure / holiday market might be different. Read recently as I may have mentioned before that inbound tourism to NZ rose by 12% last year leading to a shortage of hotel rooms in places. Where those extra tourists came from wasn't reported as I recall. Business traffic between MAN and AKL would be fairly minimal but some retired / semi-retired folk may well be prepared to travel PE or J class for extra comfort for their far away holiday. Presumably though, it would only be viable, if at all, for a relatively short season. If it were mainly UK originating, the NZ late Spring / Summer is what - November-Feb/March?

As Dobbo alluded to however, it would also depend on whether such a route would primarily be considered as, and rely on, MAN-AKL or 3 separate sectors for traffic.

All I can say is that MAN were in discussion with ANZ some years ago, and from what I was told it progressed far more than a general 'keeping in touch' type of conversation that the airport maintains with many airlines. How close it came to fruition, I couldn't say.

With developments since with the MEB3 and CX in particular, ANZ coming in now looks far less likely. It just seemed more of a possibility than some of the suggestions for 'transit' flights.

 

[Dobbo]

@Land23R do you know if it was a via America or Via Asia routing AKL-MAN?

I've seen a few unusual things such as man airport tweeting ANZ about launching a route to celebrate winning the rugby World Cup in 2015...

I think it's a long shot, and @Philbky may we'll be right about VFR - but as you say this is one piece in a larger puzzle - if an unlikey one!

 

[Coathanger16]

Slightly different from the New Zealand discussion that has been going on, but another development that could impact the Europe to Australia/New Zealand market (not suggesting that these flights would be likely to come to Manchester):

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...on-stop-flights-real-possibility-within-five/

 

[Philbky]

ANZ have thought about another UK route from time to time over Asia and both Heathrow and Manchester figured in the thinking. Heathrow would have been first choice but Manchester figured due to slot constraints at Heathrow based on timings for departures from New Zealand and any intermediate stop.

When you see four Emirates A380s on the ground at one time at Auckland with a Qatar now also there with a 777 and realise a fifth Emirates A380 has also landed at Christchurch, you realise just where the European travellers and NZ travellers to Europe are spending their flight cash.

BTW, a female cousin of mine, born in Manchester but resident in NZ since 1960, is responsible for persuading Emirates to terminate all of its Australian flights in Auckland when she was Chairperson of the Auckland Airport Authority. Her name is Joan Withers,

 

[Dobbo]

Good ins there @Philbky put in a good word!

I think ANZ used to fly AKL-HKG-LHR but gave up the HKG-LHR sector to CX who lease their slots. They might not be suitable for a North American arrival which is why MAN might be a serious contender if ANZ wish to bring another route to Europe (for the reasons discussed this seems unlikely in the near term).

Yes, EK are also big players trans Tasman and the direct service DXB-AKL is one I am on soon and works with european departure banks (evening departure, which id like to see SQ do for their bank of morning arrivals into Australasia).

 

[ethanegcc]

Route Summary:

There have been quite a few changes in the Manchester route development landscape recently, from the exit of Shaheen, the entry of supposed start-up Saif Air and the increases with PEK and particularly HKG. Here is my route development summary

Routes already served:

San Francisco - off to a good start it seems, with Thomas Cook about to join. The main question is, will SFO go year-round at the end of 2018 for business travellers?

Beijing - the change to 787s and daily frequency July-October is widely speculated, including being reported by @User001 and the AlphaFive facebook page, but it isn't bookable yet - will it happen?

Hong Kong - rapid growth rates and amazing to get this route to daily! Will they break the mould and go more than daily for next summer season? (This is more of a wish than a necessity although would be very nice)

Routes not served:
Shanghai - China Eastern are initiating major expansion from Shanghai long-haul wise and Air China have launched a route to Barcelona (a route applied for after the MAN route). It makes you wonder, with Brexit, have the plans just been dropped for the time being? Does anyone have any updated info on this?

Bangkok - Another route that has gone very quiet. For a December start, it should be being announced soon. If it comes off, it would be yet another major coup for Manchester.

Bangladesh Transit - re-appeared on Biman's plans. Would obviously reinstate DAC from MAN.

Kuwait Transit/Kuwait Airways Flights - it is now speculated that the transit will return to MAN. A new standalone route with the A330 is on for 1st October I believe.

India (Delhi/Mumbai) - Any updated stance on this?

 

[Seasider]

I can not see the advantage of Air New Zealand offering a flight to Manchester's travelling public. It would have to have a stop and there are already 5 airlines that already offer a one stop service. Why dilute the traffic any further?

 

[Dobbo]

I'm not confident SFO will go year round, or even return next year. Never say never, but the fact that the route has been foreshortened this summer, and ATL has apparently been cut. Perhaps SFO will be added in and the aircraft will be rotated through either JFK or ATL, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[ethanegcc]

I'm not confident SFO will go year round, or even return next year. Never say never, but the fact that the route has been foreshortened this summer, and ATL has apparently been cut. Perhaps SFO will be added in and the aircraft will be rotated through either JFK or ATL, but I'm not holding my breath.

ATL been cut?!

 

[Dobbo]

Poorly phrased, reduction in frequency, not cut altogether.