Archive Route Development & Rumours

[BlueManc]

BKK is certainly a strange one. The numbers suggest a viable route (?)

However, even LHR just has a double daily TG and a daily Eva (origin TPE). No BA or VS. If this was a benchmark (only double daily London) then there are many other long haul routes to consider above BKK?

 

[domino85]

Seems like another carrier starting in May to Cairo

Credit @SPD travels on X

 

[laviation]

If this comes off, a nice addition to MAN's portfolio and would bring Cairo up to 9 weekly with the route only having started in July 2023.

Connections would be available intra-Egypt and to other parts of Africa and the Middle East.

3 weekly seems right for these guys - they just won't be able to compete with the much larger Egyptair on the connection side.

Also, if the Royal Air Maroc slot request comes to pass, this will be the fourth African-domiciled carrier at MAN, joining Ethiopian (2019) and Egyptair (2023).

 

[TM3]

In recent years Thai have held slots in S20, S23 and did not apply in S24 although it was 'close'.

Air India have held slots in S23, W23, S24, and appear that they will apply for W24 too.

Royal Jordanian have held in S23 with the route coming off S24

Juneyao were to launch S20, we know what happened then, have applied in S23/4.

A quick like for like search on BKK from MAN in March shows 1 stop these flights are available cheaply already from MAN, it's at least £150 extra per person from BHX.

I don't deny the demand is there but MAN is very well served with 1 stop options, particularly with gulf carriers. Maybe Thai would like to serve a destination where there is less price competition on the route.

Also the fact that MAN already has SIN and HKG flights reduces their ability to sell regional connections both to those destinations and they destinations those hubs link to.

It's been noted elsewhere than LHR is underserved vs demand to London as BA have declined to run it, it's also difficult for any new interested parties to get slots there.

BHX would probably be a better choice for Thai for the reasons above. Its's also very easy for LHR cachement passengers to get there due to reasonably easy journey on the M40 and M1 motorways and good rail links to London Euston.

Thai and EVA are selling around the £700 mark in economy which indicates either could afford to undercut 1 stop services at BHX and still make a profit. At MAN they would either have to sell tickets for less than at LHR or have to rely on passengers paying a premium for a direct flight.

Obviously any passengers flying Thai direct would reduce sales on all of the other 1 stop competitors on that route, as such they may enter and find themselves in a price war with one of the ME carriers on BKK as the may not want to give up a significant chunk of their traffic.

 

[laviation]

BHX is also well served with one stop options to BKK?

Qatar, Emirates, Air India among others?

 

[Nobby63]

A quick like for like search on BKK from MAN in March shows 1 stop these flights are available cheaply already from MAN, it's at least £150 extra per person from BHX.

I don't deny the demand is there but MAN is very well served with 1 stop options, particularly with gulf carriers. Maybe Thai would like to serve a destination where there is less price competition on the route.

Also the fact that MAN already has SIN and HKG flights reduces their ability to sell regional connections both to those destinations and they destinations those hubs link to.

It's been noted elsewhere than LHR is underserved vs demand to London as BA have declined to run it, it's also difficult for any new interested parties to get slots there.

BHX would probably be a better choice for Thai for the reasons above. Its's also very easy for LHR cachement passengers to get there due to reasonably easy journey on the M40 and M1 motorways and good rail links to London Euston.

Thai and EVA are selling around the £700 mark in economy which indicates either could afford to undercut 1 stop services at BHX and still make a profit. At MAN they would either have to sell tickets for less than at LHR or have to rely on passengers paying a premium for a direct flight.

Obviously any passengers flying Thai direct would reduce sales on all of the other 1 stop competitors on that route, as such they may enter and find themselves in a price war with one of the ME carriers on BKK as the may not want to give up a significant chunk of their traffic.

Can I ask why you are bringing up Birmingham on a Manchester forum page.
I have noticed that you do this quite a lot and fail to understand your obsession with Manchester having routes not currently served from Birmingham.
Do you ever see anyone from Crdiff,Newcastle or other airports complaining that they don't have Air India or Qatar,Saudi or Emirates? The answer is no.
At the end of the day airlines will fly from where they feel they can make a profit from not where aircraft enthusiasts think they should.
Maybe you should get KJAY to write to them.

 

[TM3]

Can I ask why you are bringing up Birmingham on a Manchester forum page.
I have noticed that you do this quite a lot and fail to understand your obsession with Manchester having routes not currently served from Birmingham.
Do you ever see anyone from Crdiff,Newcastle or other airports complaining that they don't have Air India or Qatar,Saudi or Emirates? The answer is no.
At the end of the day airlines will fly from where they feel they can make a profit from not where aircraft enthusiasts think they should.
Maybe you should get KJAY to write to them.

To answer your question the BHX is full of posters talking about MAN routes, but no-one on the BHX forum is telling them they aren't welcome there.

I'm talking about the same routes as everyone else.

 

[Scottie Dog]

***** I'm aware of how easy it is for posts to get misunderstood so, before anything untoward happens here, can I ask you to respects the forums rules *****
That's all I wish to say.

 

[TM3]

BHX is also well served with one stop options to BKK?

Qatar, Emirates, Air India among others?

There are lots of options to BKK from BHX but not as many as at MAN.

MAN has quite a few extra carriers offering BKK in fact;
Cathay, Ethiopian, Etihad, Finnair, Gulfair, Hainan, SAS, Royal Jordanian, Kuwait Airways and SAS.

Admittedly it doesn't have Air India but it has significantly more seats on the other 2 carriers you mentioned.

 

[domino85]

A quick like for like search on BKK from MAN in March shows 1 stop these flights are available cheaply already from MAN, it's at least £150 extra per person from BHX.

I don't deny the demand is there but MAN is very well served with 1 stop options, particularly with gulf carriers. Maybe Thai would like to serve a destination where there is less price competition on the route.

Also the fact that MAN already has SIN and HKG flights reduces their ability to sell regional connections both to those destinations and they destinations those hubs link to.

It's been noted elsewhere than LHR is underserved vs demand to London as BA have declined to run it, it's also difficult for any new interested parties to get slots there.

BHX would probably be a better choice for Thai for the reasons above. Its's also very easy for LHR cachement passengers to get there due to reasonably easy journey on the M40 and M1 motorways and good rail links to London Euston.

Thai and EVA are selling around the £700 mark in economy which indicates either could afford to undercut 1 stop services at BHX and still make a profit. At MAN they would either have to sell tickets for less than at LHR or have to rely on passengers paying a premium for a direct flight.

Obviously any passengers flying Thai direct would reduce sales on all of the other 1 stop competitors on that route, as such they may enter and find themselves in a price war with one of the ME carriers on BKK as the may not want to give up a significant chunk of their traffic.

If this was the case about carriers not starting due to other competitors flying to the same place, there would only be 1 carrier flying to Turkey or Spain for example. The demand is there at MAN for these routes and Thai would be a great addition to the route network.

 

[mullion]

I guess we are part way there as we have a Thai A330 stored here lol!

 

[David_itl]

Back in 2015, there were still well over 100,000 passengers a year doing MAN-elsewhere-BKK. We had no Gulf Air, Hainan, Royal Jordanian, Ethiopian, Cathay. BHX-BKK has never been touted as a "needed" route or as a route that is surprisingly not served. Any TG route would attract a better pricing premium by being non-stop with the more cost conscious passenger still routing over an intermediary point.

If we were to add a potential route that will remain destined to be unserved then I would look no further than MAN-Lagos. SPD_travels posted an image on X breaking it down and this is the article in question

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/behr...uja-nigeria-activity-7155147743051628544-rR8A
A real leap in booking to 57000 passengers a year with Ethiopian leading the way.

 

[TM3]

Back in 2015, there were still well over 100,000 passengers a year doing MAN-elsewhere-BKK. We had no Gulf Air, Hainan, Royal Jordanian, Ethiopian, Cathay. BHX-BKK has never been touted as a "needed" route or as a route that is surprisingly not served. Any TG route would attract a better pricing premium by being non-stop with the more cost conscious passenger still routing over an intermediary point.

I'm not saying there is not demand, for context this is about 270 passengers per day which is enough to fill a widebody but commercially you've got to consider that tickets to BKK from BHX are selling for more.

There is absolutely no reason why this route needs to be serviced out of MAN if it makes better commercial sense to service it through BHX where in addition to better fares there is more exclusivity on onward regional connections that are served by SQ and CX.

Are there any more passengers flying that route now there is more supply? Otherwise there will be significantly more pressure on yields now than in 2015.

 

[Nobby63]

I'm not saying there is not demand, for context this is about 270 passengers per day which is enough to fill a widebody but commercially you've got to consider that tickets to BKK from BHX are selling for more.

There is absolutely no reason why this route needs to be serviced out of MAN if it makes better commercial sense to service it through BHX where in addition to better fares there is more exclusivity on onward regional connections that are served by SQ and CX.

Are there any more passengers flying that route now there is more supply? Otherwise there will be significantly more pressure on yields now than in 2015.

What proof do you have to back up your "expertise "?

 

[TM3]

What is your expertise?

 

[gulftraveller]

A quick like for like search on BKK from MAN in March shows 1 stop these flights are available cheaply already from MAN, it's at least £150 extra per person from BHX.

I don't deny the demand is there but MAN is very well served with 1 stop options, particularly with gulf carriers. Maybe Thai would like to serve a destination where there is less price competition on the route.

Also the fact that MAN already has SIN and HKG flights reduces their ability to sell regional connections both to those destinations and they destinations those hubs link to.

It's been noted elsewhere than LHR is underserved vs demand to London as BA have declined to run it, it's also difficult for any new interested parties to get slots there.

BHX would probably be a better choice for Thai for the reasons above. Its's also very easy for LHR cachement passengers to get there due to reasonably easy journey on the M40 and M1 motorways and good rail links to London Euston.

Thai and EVA are selling around the £700 mark in economy which indicates either could afford to undercut 1 stop services at BHX and still make a profit. At MAN they would either have to sell tickets for less than at LHR or have to rely on passengers paying a premium for a direct flight.

Obviously any passengers flying Thai direct would reduce sales on all of the other 1 stop competitors on that route, as such they may enter and find themselves in a price war with one of the ME carriers on BKK as the may not want to give up a significant chunk of their traffic.

With respect, your argument makes no sense whatsoever. Airlines do not work like that. If Thai adds another UK route, it will be to MAN because airlines respond to market demand which, we can assume, is far larger at MAN than BHX. As for London catchment passengers driving up the M40 to catch a flight to BKK, that simply will not happen. Conversely, that proximity is precisely why BHX will not get CX, SQ or TG.

 

[David_itl]

It's a pity that the anna,aero site historic pages have been taken down when it was sold. One such article on 24th Jan 2017 allowed me to extract this info

MAN-BKK market size around 135,000 passengers a year
BHX-BKK market size around 45,000 passengers per year.

 

[TM3]

With respect, your argument makes no sense whatsoever. Airlines do not work like that. If Thai adds another UK route, it will be to MAN because airlines respond to market demand which, we can assume, is far larger at MAN than BHX. As for London catchment passengers driving up the M40 to catch a flight to BKK, that simply will not happen. Conversely, that proximity is precisely why BHX will not get CX, SQ or TG.

I don't get the assertion that people won't travel to get a flight to Birmingham, when they do travel from Birmingham to get flights from LHR and MAN. Can you qualify that one with an explanation please?

Essentially every overlapping area within both airports' cachement areas should be up for grabs. What is it, other than the lack of direct services at their local airport that encourages Brummies to travel to a different airport and why shouldn't Manchester or London be the same?

 

[gulftraveller]

The evidence shows people will gravitate towards a larger airport, whether because of cost or better schedules. When I lived in London, I would search for flights from LHR, LGW, STN and possibly LTN. I would never search for flights from BHX just as passengers at MAN will rarely look at flights from LBA.

Your argument that an airline will open a long haul service to an airport with lower demand, charging lower fares, in the hope passengers will travel to that airport by car is not an argument a serious long haul airline would entertain.

Once TG mention BHX in one of their maps of proposed destinations (as they have with MAN) or apply for slots, we can reopen this debate.

 

[Aviador]

The evidence shows people will gravitate towards a larger airpo

People gravitate to where they find their desired choice and availability. It isn't because an airport is bigger.