Archive Route Development & Rumours

[TM3]

Maybe I have missed something but VS is showing daily to both destinations this summer. That is on the booking engine.

The reason there are fewer seats than pre covid is to do with the exchange rate and the unpopularity of holidaying in USA compared with a few years ago. US airlines are still reinforcing outbound holiday destinations rather than city pairs.

I know that BHX to US passenger numbers are the same as pre covid. Maybe that would be worthy of a debate on a BHX forum because, as far as I can see, this debate has no merit.

The original point still has merit though if what you say is true demand does appear to be maxxed out at MAN right now for US destinations, partly because Aer Lingus have stepped in to fill available demand.

For any expansion at JFK at least Virgin will now have to compete with IAG/Aer Lingus. On other routes they will also have to compete with BA/IAG connections through LHR, for which Manchester is very well served indeed.

Plus you don't really know what Virgin will do next year as they announced Sao Paolo and cancelled it again without even running a flight.

I would say going daily on these 2 routes is what is needed for Virgin to claim any real presence as a major carrier out of MAN.

 

[mullion]

This is a waste of time even replying because you keep going over the same thing. For info Brasil is a bit of a dodgy market at present as is the whole of South America not that USA is much better and with the elections coming up and the likely hood of good ol Donald likely to win I think I will pass.

 

[David_itl]

IAG have already indicated that they do see MAN as a potential profit growth centre,. If it were to be solely on the basis of feeding LHR then you would have seen GLA and EDI also feature. EI have stated that they can see a "manyfold" increase in services in coming years out of MAN.

The scope for MAN transatlantic expansion is there but as in the case of TCX, it may need an "independent" carrier to fully maximise it as new routes out of VS and EI will be focused on DL and AA hubs. I don't see SEA featuring anytime soon again but TCX did operate it 2 or 3 weekly with over 80% loads, never forgetting that the airline was profitable even if the group wasn't.

As for where I get the figures, I did state they were out of Anna Aero but as that website no longer functions, I can't directly link it. They would have access to certain data (OAG/Cirium?) to produce those reports and if they were wrong, I have no doubt they would have been forced to retract them.

What you won't see is a "please fly to us as we are near London" mantra. That just gives the vibe of an area not worth visiting or investing in,

 

[TM3]

@David_itl I agree on your point about existing carriers, I feel that all the carriers out there will ultimately gravitate towards their hub cities. In this respect all UK cities (outside of London) are in the same boat. However whilst a proliferation of different carriers is good for competition it does ultimately limit the number of routes and frequencies that each airline can run vs having a dominant hub carrier and I think this is the challenge for MAN in balancing the growth of EI to Virgin, along with a host of other potential entrants once demand increases, MAN could for example see an entrant offering low cost NYC only which would dilute loads for any established full service carriers.

Don't want to go too far off topic as this is the MAN thread but I will say;

I'm OK with the "Gateway to London" tag if you are talking about BHX, if the shoe fits I'm happy for the airport to wear it, that shoe may not fit at Manchester but I believe you need to play the cards you've got.

If the area/airport wanted to market itself as the gateway to London I still think it's an opportunity to showcase the benefits of location in Birmigham and the immediate locality of the airport, both of which have plenty of to offer in terms of skills whilst still being less than 2 hours by train from London but also a number of UK cities including Manchester, Leeds, Bristol and Liverpool.

 

[gulftraveller]

Nobody in the aviation world (except, perhaps, Ryanair) will ever describe BHX as the Gateway to London. Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted are the gateways to London and they have no need for a surrogate.

 

[TM3]

Nobody in the aviation world (except, perhaps, Ryanair) will ever describe BHX as the Gateway to London. Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted are the gateways to London and they have no need for a surrogate.

Why not?

 

[Aviador]

Nobody in the aviation world (except, perhaps, Ryanair) will ever describe BHX as the Gateway to London. Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted are the gateways to London and they have no need for a surrogate.

That is a very good point to be honest and those airports have been chasing the same airlines for years without any success, particularly Gatwick.

I said in an earlier post how most people in places like Leeds and Liverpool see Manchester as their intercontinental airport of choice but people catching long haul flights generally accept they need to shop around for the cheapest deals and generally speaking Heathrow is going to come up trumps everytime unless you're prepared to go via Dubai or Qatar or from one of the European hubs, so the departure airport isn't going to be as important to people.

For this reason I think all airports outside of London will struggle to attact these kind of services. Our travelling options are already plentiful by other means.

Looking back to the 90s many of these airlines tried flights from the regions and but couldn't make them a success.

 

[robsh34]

Nobody in the aviation world (except, perhaps, Ryanair) will ever describe BHX as the Gateway to London. Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted are the gateways to London and they have no need for a surrogate.

And Luton.

 

[KARFA]

Why not?

because BHX is several hours away from London. it quite simply isn't a "gateway to London" by any sane measure.

everyone made fun of Oxford when the rebranded themselves as "London Oxford Airport".

 

[gulftraveller]

Sorry. Yes, and Luton.

 

[mullion]

TM3 question where is Aer Lingus UK based and why would Virgin move back to Heathrow
Birmingham gateway to London get real.

 

[Jerry]

Why not?

Because it's 100 miles away.

 

[TM3]

because BHX is several hours away from London. it quite simply isn't a "gateway to London" by any sane measure.

BHX is 1hr and 5 minutes from London Euston with a 2 minute people carrier transit from the station to the terminal. When HS2 arrives it will be 37 minutes.

For context it takes 45 minutes to get to Heathrow from Euston at least, Google says 53 minutes, plus you can spend a lot of time travelling around the terminal when you get there.

Stansted Express takes 45-57 minutes from Liverpool St depending on the available trains.

Gatwick takes 30 minutes from Victoria, but there are only 2 trains per hour.

Luton is 36 minutes from St Pancras for the parkway station there there is now a new transfer train but Luton is heavily restricted for long haul due to the runway length. In any event LHR, LGW and LTN are all close to or reaching capacity and no-one is building a new airport in London anytime soon.

TM3 question where is Aer Lingus UK based and why would Virgin move back to Heathrow
Birmingham gateway to London get real.

Maybe google it?

It's not a question of Virgin moving back to London, they never left, as numerous people have said already what Virgin care about most is protecting their Heathrow slots. Competing with Aer Lingus is clearly second.

I don't know why people moan so much about the status quo at Manchester as most other cities would be happy with these services.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

TM3 - We're not moaning. This is the legitimate thread to discuss route development at MAN, and that's what we do on here. If anything, it is you who is moaning about your wishlist for BHX remaining unfulfilled. You have pre-determined certain outcomes which you want to see, and are trying to force a narrative which supports those outcomes. Sometimes the facts just won't fit.

Note to everyone: Perhaps if we all just acknowledge that BHX is the bestest airport in the world with the largest and most affluent catchment surrounding it (more so than any London airport); and that major carriers such as VIR, EUK, SIA and CPA should give up on their hubs and move all ops to BHX instead, we can move on.

Did I mention that Mongolian Airways, Yeti Airlines, COPA Airlines and Air Senegal would be perfect fits for BHX as well? MAN should just shut up shop and give up.

 

[Seasider]

EGCC_MAN, are you being serious?

 

[KARFA]

BHX is 1hr and 5 minutes from London Euston with a 2 minute people carrier transit from the station to the terminal. When HS2 arrives it will be 37 minutes.

For context it takes 45 minutes to get to Heathrow from Euston at least, Google says 53 minutes, plus you can spend a lot of time travelling around the terminal when you get there.

Stansted Express takes 45-57 minutes from Liverpool St depending on the available trains.

Gatwick takes 30 minutes from Victoria, but there are only 2 trains per hour.

Luton is 36 minutes from St Pancras for the parkway station there there is now a new transfer train but Luton is heavily restricted for long haul due to the runway length. In any event LHR, LGW and LTN are all close to or reaching capacity and no-one is building a new airport in London anytime soon.

You are quite correct. Welcome to London Birmingham Airport, nowhere near where you actually want to be

 

[Aviador]

I think the point here is neither Manchester or Birmingham have a god given right to a particular airline or route. There is no harm in debating why one airline or another might suite one airport over the other. Let's keep it a sensible debate. Its OK to disagree with someone but please gentlemen, and women, be polite.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

I don't believe that there is merit in going onto the BHX forum (or LPL, LBA etc.) to post over and over that all their operators should give up and move their services to MAN instead. I have never indulged in such abject nonsense. I simply ask that some contributors reciprocate that courtesy. This has gone well beyond reasoned debate. This is wishcraft. No more, no less.

 

[lbaspotter]

Southwind Airlines along with the charter company Holiday Best have taken off sale all flights that were due to operate from late March up until late May on its new UK summer 24 routes from Antalya to BHX, BRS, EDI, EMA, GLA, LBA, LPL, STN, MAN, NCL & Dalaman to STN.

They are due to operate Antalya - Manchester 2x weekly (Wed & Sat) now starting May 25th

 

[EGCC_MAN]

There was mention that potential Russian funding could be an issue with Southwind. I'm not sure whether the same applies to Holiday Best, but perhaps they could look to another airline if that is the problem?