Archive Route Development & Rumours

[David_itl]

Amazing how a change in Indian policy was the key to potentially unravelling a route thanks to the number of aircraft/number of years operating before eligible for international routes rule being about to be scrapped. The part of that policy with aiming for open skies for countries more than 5000 km away from Delhi would not have been as key as any airline could come here

 

[Dobbo]

Trying to wrap up the current new route rumours (for approx 2017/18):

1. Air China - Shanghai
2. Air China - Chengdu
3. Hainan - Xi'an
4. China Southern - Guangzhou
5. Delta - Detroit
6. American Air - Dallas
7. Air Canada (not rouge) - Toronto
8. Vistara India - Delhi(?)
9. NokScoot - Bangkok
10. Thomas Cook - San Francisco(?)
11. Thomas Cook - Cape Town
12. Norwegian - New York
13. Norwegian - Boston
14. Norwegian - Las Vegas
15. Norwegian - Oakland

I have no idea what TUI have planned from MAN. It is probably safe to say Virgin Atlantic will start a new route - my money is on LAX - in 2018.

Have I missed anything? Frequency increases to follow...

 

[Dobbo]

Rumoured changes to existing routes for the 2017/18 period:

1. Hainan - Beijing to daily
2. Cathay Pacific - Hong Kong to daily.
3. Singapore - decoupled from MUC and non-stop.
4. Virgin Atlantic - San Francisco year round, increase frequency.
5. Virgin Atlantic - Boston year round.
6. Thomas Cook - Los Angeles year round and increase frequency.
7. Thomas Cook - Boston year round and increase frequency
8. Thomas Cook - Miami year round and increase frequency.
9. American Air - New York year round 767.
10. United - EWR to 767.
11. Emirates - 4x daily to Dubai.
12. Etihad - increased frequency to AUH.
13. Qatar - reduced frequency for short period to DOH.

I presume we will see a general increase in european short haul routes but don't have the information to hand.

 

[Land23R]

Thanks for your lists Dobbo which make great reading. However, unless you have sources for all those 'rumours',
can I suggest we distinguish genuine rumours from what might be termed speculation even if there is some rationale behind them. For example, I'm not aware that EK or EY might be increasing frequency shortly, or that SQ are to de-couple MAN from MUC. If you have heard something, that's fine, but perhaps you would clarify.

As regards TCX, I was under the impression that plans to increase frequencies on those US routes have been retracted, or at least put on ice, and I assume CPT is speculative although not an unreasonable possibility.

I love to hear about rumours from those 'in the know', but for less clued up readers, it might seem that some of these things are highly likely within a short time frame and create unrealistic expectations, leading to disappointment if they don't happen.

MAN is certainly on a roll just now (as is BHX), but as Aceshigh mentions on another thread, there may well be a point where there is over capacity on certain long haul routes and even growth from a wider catchment won't fill all the extra seats. Although short haul, MAD was a salutary lesson in that respect.

That said, there is certainly great potential for MAN over the next 10 years - that's why it's so important we have the apron and parking space to meet demand.

 

[Dobbo]

I'll add the source to the list later. Not all can be referenced by an article but at least the root source
Of the information can be identified.

 

[User001]

There are lots of rumours going around at the moment regarding new routes, but, I'm personally going to reserve judgement until they start coming to the fore.

We have 11 new confirmed routes already, so, we are off to a great start, but, I'm not sure if the 60-65 of this year can be matched.

In terms of the USA 'weakness', I'm not particularly worried about that at this time, I think it's just a blip as the pound is a little weaker against the dollar of late, and, it's not just MAN seeing poor loads on the hub links, as I've already posted (BOS and LAX have got off to cracking starts however, which is great).

I have already done the UK wide weak loads to the USA, but, just looking at flights again the past few days, it's difficult to find many LHR-JFK/ORD/PHL/MIA/IAH/DFW and ATL with over 100 pax. LHR-West Coast, Denver and Austin seem to be the better loaded flights.

Like all destinations, it's a cycle and loads will pick up again. Incidentally, the MAN-MCO route has been one of the best performing routes load wise in the past 2 weeks, only 3 routes on average have done better.

 

[Land23R]

Thanks User001. Good to hear LAX and BOS have started so well.

As it happens, loads on the US carriers looked much healthier this morning looking at seat plans just before SDT, so hopefully fairly accurate. Both UA flights over 90% as was AA to ORD. AA to JFK and PHL both over 80%. Delta showing only 6 empty seats but my impression is they have been fairly consistently the best performers in recent weeks.

Out of interest, any guess as to what the next announcement might be - Norwegian perhaps, or Air China?

 

[User001]

I'm going to say Air China next, then Norwegian for S17.

I just feel everything is pretty much all set to go with Air China, now they have the PVG slots, they were the final piece of the jigsaw, so I'm not aware of anything holding it back.

Norwegian may have a new route or 2 for winter, but long haul/base is S17 so plenty of time to get it sorted. There should be 8 routes from Norwegian this winter.

 

[Dobbo]

Rumoured new routes with supporting information. In fairness, some of it is a compilation of User_001's information, but I think we are not likely to argue that he is generally well informed and ahead of the curve:

1. Air China - Shanghai (widely reported)
2. Air China - Chengdu (User noted that they are on the cusp of applying for this route)
3. Hainan - Xi'an (User)
4. China Southern - Guangzhou (User)
5. Delta - Detroit (routesonline)
6. American Air - Dallas (speculation, fuelled by AA tweet about running the Dreamliner to MAN from DFW)
7. Air Canada (not rouge) - Toronto (the theory is that AC are testing the market to see if the Rouge brand can be deployed elsewhere)
8. Vistara India - Delhi (view held that they do not want to fly from LHR or LGW)
9. NokScoot - Bangkok (dried fruit)
10. Thomas Cook - San Francisco (TCX preliminary schedule which was scuppered due to lack of aircraft)
11. Thomas Cook - Cape Town (rumoured due to cruise operator advertising direct flight from MAN)
12. Norwegian - New York (all Norwegian routes speculated but Boston appears in the booking engine)
13. Norwegian - Boston
14. Norwegian - Las Vegas
15. Norwegian - Oakland

Rumoured changes to existing routes for the 2017/18 period:

1. Hainan - Beijing to daily (User)
2. Cathay Pacific - Hong Kong to daily (widely reported - issues have been crew and aircraft)
3. Singapore - decoupled from MUC and non-stop (widely reported, but the recent launch of nonstop to SFO may have pushed this back again. SQ are reportedly talking to BHX and whilst I doubt they'd dilute the MAN offering by launching BHX it might suggest that they are interested in expansion and logic would suggest that they would move at MAN first).
4. Virgin Atlantic - San Francisco year round, increase frequency (speculation, but logical based on performance)
5. Virgin Atlantic - Boston year round (ditto).
6. Thomas Cook - Los Angeles year round and increase frequency (based on TCX preliminary schedule)
7. Thomas Cook - Boston year round and increase frequency (as above)
8. Thomas Cook - Miami year round and increase frequency (as above)
9. American Air - New York year round 767 (widely reported)
10. United - EWR to 767 (user, info from UA representative)
11. Emirates - 4x daily to Dubai (speculated, but may be likely based on passenger numbers)
12. Etihad - increased frequency to AUH (as above)
13. Qatar - reduced frequency for short period to DOH (supposedly due to engineering work on the Dreamliner fleet).

 

[User001]

Where/when was this tweet by AA about the Dreamliner to DFW?

Given the AA social media team are pretty atrocious when it comes to detail, I would take that tweet with a very large pinch of salt. (when asked about the Dreamliner to MAN just before it was confirmed, they even denied they had any dreamliners in service!?!).

It's no secret DFW want a MAN route, but, it's no different to MAN wanting a BKK route, wanting and getting are 2 very different things.

 

[Dobbo]

Wish I could find it - but it's a needle in the haystack. In any case, I agree it's not exactly reliable information, but does make sense.

 

[User001]

And destination 61 for 2016 is New Orleans with Thomson. Yes, it's only 2 flights in December, but sod it, we're on a roll so I'm counting it!

 

[Dobbo]

Charter? Interesting destination...

 

[User001]

Yes cruise charters.

 

[Comet]

User
In your list above about new routes for 2016 you mention
37: British Airways Groningen
38: British Airways Bremen

I know these have been mentioned as possible but I can't find any announcement about them or that they are on sale - Certainly the BA website has nothing. Will they be new routes and when do they start

 

[User001]

They are on sale for the corporate contract only, they have their own private website. Both routes will be 12 weekly. 2 flights mon-Fri, no flights on Saturday and one on Sunday for both routes.

 

[David_itl]

So potentially 4 Sun Air Do328s on the ground at the same time in the evenings. That would make a decent photo if they were parked next to each other.

 

[Aceshigh]

ORD AA. Cancellations...seems odd

 

[User001]

Air India could be back on the table:

http://indiagbnews.com/industry/midas-champions-calls-for-direct-manchester-india-air-link/

Given events like this is how Birmingham regained its link, and the fact Air India is attending these events and saying a route is likely should be swiped and acted on.

Long haul is doing so well at the moment, a Link to India is a matter of when, not if, so, we just need them to get on with it now.

 

[User001]

Oh and it's worth pointing out, MIDAS are responsible for getting us Austrian to Vienna, Virgin to San Fransisco and Boston, Ryanair to Nurenburg, Hainan to Beijing and Oman Air to Muscat amongst other.