Archive Route Development & Rumours

[User001]

Check your PM's Dobbo.

 

[David_itl]

Suspense is killing me.. its like the film i'm watching on the train, Apollo 13.

 

[User001]

News is in the appropriate thread.

 

[Dobbo]

Preempted VS-SFO and now SQ-SIN/IAD.

I think I'm in the wrong career...

 

[User001]

I do think the news of IAH is quite impressive too.

While there has been the perpetual bun fight over which UK regional got the first China flights, it hasn't let MAN take their eye off the ball USA wise.

For 2016 and 2017, we have had two brand new unserved USA routes added, really bolstering up that network. 2015-2017 has seen at least 1 new USA route added each year.

We had Los Angles and Boston added in 2016, San Fransisco and Houston added in 2017, and Miami added in 2015. Hopefully Detroit will still be added next summer.

Where next? Denver and Seattle in 2018? Getting a very good network over to the USA!

 

[Land23R]

User001, I think the gain of direct non-stop services is a big plus, while recognising there will likely be some impact on existing flights to US hubs. For example, if the CAA stats for April are accurate (I've doubts about one or two figures), the 29% drop in ATL pax is a concern. Easter being one week earlier wouldn't explain it to that extent. Were there many cancellations?

Of the 2 destinations you mention, I would have thought Seattle was the more likely based on the big companies based there. Denver on the other hand is more of a leisure destination for the National Parks and winter ski holidays.

As regards the bun fight over China flights, is there any more news about PEK going daily or progress with Air China to Shanghai? 86% LF on PEK that you refer to elsewhere is very impressive for a new start-up.

 

[Dobbo]

I can't see that US destinations are going to continue to skyrocket.

The most likely new ones after Detroit would be Charlotte or Dallas, neither of which I think is particularly likely.

I fancy VS to expand into LAX and MIA and possibly increase frequency on SFO/BOS. They may fancy taking on AA at ORD or UA at IAD but can't see a Seattle or Denver route just yet.

If SQ get a codeshare and US domestic connections with UA I expect they will do very well from MAN-IAD because their product is so much better than DL/AA/UA.

 

[Dobbo]

Thinking about the expected/anticipated new long haul routes, I have come up with the following that we can look forward to soon(ish):

Detroit
Shanghai
Guangzhou
Xi'an
Tehran

 

[User001]

The US destinations certainly won't continue to sprocket, but, it was just interesting that since 2014, we have had at least one brand new route to the USA that wasn't already served by another carrier:

2014: Charlotte (since ended again)
2015: Miami (also had increases to MCO/LAS/JFK)
2016: Los Angeles and Boston (increases to MCO/JFK)
2017: San Fransisco and Houston (increases to MCO/JFK/BOS/EWR and hopefully new route to DTW comes off).

Next up new destination wise, I do think Seattle could have legs if the Manchester tech and broadcasting industry continues to rise. Denver could be a good ski route and a bit out there, but after Condor added San Diego, there is a very outside chance. Fair few connections from the North/North West heading to SAN, more than you'd think!

 

[Dobbo]

I think you are right, but I would expect to see a bump to SFO before Seattle comes into the picture. I would also expect Seattle to be a VS route, and think they would run to LAX before any of that.

Of the 25 routes identified a couple of years ago, we must be getting close to seeing 10 of those filled (on paper at least).

 

[Aceshigh]

Does anybody have access to the actual size of the US market from Manchester?

Superb news re SIA but are we getting near critical mass re US routes ?

Demand cannot possibly be finite or can it ?

 

[Dobbo]

I don't know the demand SIN-IAH but it's important to remember that MAN is not being asked to fill a complete aircraft on either MAN-SIN or MAN-IAD sectors.

It is simply "topping off" and the hope has to be that eventually demand is there for another flight to SIN to give some choice of timings.

 

[User001]

New 2 aircraft base next summer.

 

[Dobbo]

New 2 aircraft base next summer.

Is that a new carrier base? Assume Norwegian is (somehow) back on?

 

[User001]

It's not Norwegian. Neither is the BHX one.

 

[Dobbo]

It's not Norwegian. Neither is the BHX one.

Interesting - is it for short haul?

 

[Land23R]

Does anybody have access to the actual size of the US market from Manchester?
Superb news re SIA but are we getting near critical mass re US routes ?
Demand cannot possibly be finite or can it ?

Good question, but I suspect it's a bit of an unknown and the 'chicken and egg' quandary applies.

Putting aside financial crisis and economic issues for the moment, demand can increase by successfully tapping into a wider catchment area. Potential custom from that wider catchment will be won if the flights exist and at a decent frequency at a reasonable price and with good transport & road links; otherwise pax will continue to use a more local airport and fly via another hub or travel to London. Transfer traffic can be another driver of increased demand and there are signs that MAN are making progress in that area, but the transfer process needs to be as smooth and efficient as possible. But airlines will only put on the flights if convinced that the demand, and potential demand, is there to make the service viable.

Of course, if people feel confident about the future and financially secure, then demand can increase from the local catchment as well if the US is an attractive option to places nearer home.

The downside is if the economy is doing well, then airports in MAN's wider catchment will also be vying for extra services, which is what is happening at BHX.

So, I don't think the size is limitless, but I imagine the number is not a fixed one and will change with circumstances.
It's a highly competitive market and I'm sure MAN will be fighting hard to maximise its opportunites in the US.

And then there's the APD effect ........

Sorry to go on a bit

 

[Land23R]

New 2 aircraft base next summer.

While I was waffling, missed this teaser. How about Vueling?

 

[Jerry]

While I was waffling, missed this teaser. How about Vueling?

Considering they have a shortage of aircraft this summer would they have the aircraft? Do they have any on order?

 

[Land23R]

It's not Norwegian. Neither is the BHX one.

Have we established that it's the same carrier at both airports? And does the airline fly to both currently from other bases?

Jerry - interesting point about a current aircraft shortage for Vueling.