Archive Route Development & Rumours
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Has it been established that it's an airline that doesn't already fly to MAN although it's probably fair to assume that?
No but given there is a tourism campaign and the only other star alliance member with 359s is SQ and they recently comitted to SIN-MAN-IAH 77W it is most likely a new carrier...and User 001 said it is a new route so unless SQ pulls something else out of the bag which seems extremely unlikely it surely must be TG!
andyc941
Platinum Member
Also User said that BHX has the diversion contract for these flights,if it was Thai wouldn't LHR be the fist choice of diversion airport?
Do you think they would choose LHR because they already operate there? Because the only airlines that operate to BHX that MAN doesn't have are AI, Turkmenistan, Blue Air and Czech Airlines. None of these have A359s so whatever the new flight it's going to be a client that BHX doesn't already have with regular flights.
Dobbo
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- Oct 27, 2015
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I thought I'd recap the MAN long haul programme, including possible changes to existing routes, confirmed new routes as well as possible new routes and some wild speculation on my part.
The single most important thing to have happened since the last update was Brexit. No one yet knows how this will impact MAN (or, quite frankly, UK plc) so watch this space.
Current Routes where changes may occur
JFK/EWR - continues to go from strength to strength with TCX, DL, UA and AA operating a pretty much daily service that is slightly
Reduced in winter. TCX are aiming to go to daily in summer 2017. This may or may not be possible due to aircraft shortages. AA and UA are moving towards offering a widebody service, with VS taking over from DL using an A333 from March.
IAD – a seasonal operated by UA which looks to have been suspended for the entire winter season. Whether this is due to the news about IAH or underlying lack of demand remains to be seen.
ORD – as with IAD, this is also a seasonal route (with only January to March being free of flights). This is currently operated by the B788 although there have been reliability issues. This may be one for UA to examine with their hub at ORD (I note DL are looking to expand here so they may also be in the frame). I'd like to see this become year round.
MIA – operated by TCX and to be increased to 3x weekly. May be a route where more competition could join in time, could be a good way for VS to rotate off a west coast route?
ATL – I would like to mention this, as it is a route that has been performing very well. It will be interesting to see whether the addition of more services to other parts of the US by VS and others affects this route.
LAX – TCX have commenced 2x weekly using the A330. This will remain at 2x weekly over the winter. It was due to increase to 3x weekly from summer 2017 although lack of aircraft seems to have scuppered this for now. There have been rumours about VS being interested in this route but there has been no specific public comment. I fully expect VS to commence this route by the summer of 2018 unless economic headwinds bite.
BOS – commenced the route at 2x weekly in May using the A330. This looks seasonal for now, but VS are entering the market in March 2017. If Norwegian can sort out their issues we may see a third operator.
HKG – CX have performed superbly on this route and it is expected that the current 4x weekly will be doubled to 8x weekly. It is not known whether the B77W will continue to be used (they do well on freight) or if this will change to the A359.
SIN – the most interesting move since the last update. SQ will now fly nonstop to SIN and also to IAH. The downside is it is 5x weekly for now, and there are mixed reports about whether it is planned to increase in future. Perhaps SQ will be happy with daily MAN and 5x weekly IAH? Who knows but it is better than Scoot... Next steps are to agree codeshares with UA, Flybe and *A partners.
DXB – EK continues to perform strongly from MAN. It seems likely that either a 4th daily (most likely B77W) will be announced in 2016.
AUH – as with the other members of the MEB3, EY are having a good year. They are at a point where they have a 2x daily B77W service, which are very full, and to increase capacity they are either looking at using an A380 or more likely adding a third daily flight. They have indicated they want to bring it to MAN one day, and one of MANs renders of the TP shows an EY branded A380. Moving to a three daily operation and using more A330s and B789s seems to me to be the most likely next step if they want to increase capacity.
DOH – QR seem to take two steps forward and one step back. From 16x weekly down to 15. Now starting to see a more consistent B77W/B788 product.
ISB/LHE – PIA are in the midst of a battle with Shaeen, so there may yet be further capacity poured into this route or cut backs.
YYZ – currently served seasonally by Air Canada Rouge and Air Transaat. There is talk that the AC mainline operation during July was a tester to commence full time operations from next summer. There are good reasons why that may not be the case. I am confused why there is no year round daily service to YYZ - from AC or Rouge. It just seems odd.
PEK – Hainan started this route on 10 June 4x weekly using the A333. This has already been up-gauged from the A332, due to the amount of advance bookings. It is due to go daily from the start of 2017.
Soon to Start
SFO – VS are to start this route in March 2017 at 3x weekly using the A333. I hope this proves not to be seasonal and we will see this bed down at close to a daily flight. Previously, TCX seemed to have tipped their hand at starting this route in the summer 2017 at 2x weekly using the A330. This was scuppered due to lack of aircraft.
PVG – Air China are expected to announce this shortly, presumably it will use the A330 but no indication about frequency. I think it is reasonable to assume that they will mirror Hainan and start at 4x weekly with an aspiration to go daily.
MCT - the surprise (to me) is that Oman Air will start a daily flight to Muscat from March 2017 on a B788. On sale from 15 September.
IAH - starting with SQ in October at 5x weekly. Great route great airline. Hope they sort the codeshares and connections at each end and it should be a success. As with SIN, mixed view on whether it is planned to go daily in future.
DTW - all but confirmed for S17 albeit there is no indication on whether it will be run by DL or VS.
Unserved Routes that may be feasible in the short/medium term
DFW – a major hub for AA, primarily for South America. AA have previously tweeted their desire to run MAN-DFW using a B788 but given the problems with the B788 at ORD and SQ running to IAD, this seems likely to be in the back burner.
SAN - might be a good bucket and spade route for TCX. Quite how this may be impacted by other west coast routes remains up for discussion.
SEA - this may be one for DL/VS although I expect LAX to be higher up their pecking order of routes.
CTU - a possibility for Air China. The region of Chengdu has recently agreed to a £1bn investment into the Sheffield City region, evidence of the growing economic ties between China and the North or England.
CAN - rumoured to be under consideration by China Eastern using a 3x weekly B788. The downside of sorts is that it is close to Hong Kong and may impact CX, but by that time CX should (hopefully) have a settled daily operation.
XIY - anticipated 2x weekly by Hainan. Would be an interesting routing and tourism destination on the B788.
KUL – previously served by MH using the B744 this remains a major market that is consistently in the MEB3’s (and Turkish) most popular destinations ex MAN. MH are apparently (and incredibly) going through an expansion phase albeit there is no information about European expansion plans. This may be a TCX, Air Asia X or Norwegian route.
BKK – TG have apparently had their eye on MAN for some time but are in a poor financial position. BKK-MAN is apparently the third most popular (by gross numbers) unserved route on earth (200k per year - approx 1x B77W round trip per day), and with onward connections my view is that they would do well. Yield seems to be the major issue. However, NokScoot, TCX and Norwegian could be options, as could a surprise full service carrier from further east.
CPT/JNB – these have been tried in the past, but SAA are not in a position to run the route so we are looking at domestic operators. I think TCX or VS can make MAN-CPT work as a 3/4x weekly operation – particularly in winter. Perhaps the cruise stories are true?
DEL - Air India. Understandably their focus is on Birmingham but I would find is astonishing if AI did not commence MAN by the close of 2018 on the B788.
BOM – Vistara (founded by SQ) are currently in the process of founding an international network. Apparently MAN is slated to be one of the first cluster of destinations.
RUH – strong indications that Saudia will start this, quite when is unclear.
ADD - on the MEN hitlist, must be with Ethiopian. I'd not expected this but a welcome route into a major african hub, with the possibility of a tag to somewhere in North America.
Tehran - with the opening up of ties to the Middle East this is surely a matter of time?
HND – JAL have been sniffing around, but very little seems to have happened. Rumoured at 4x weekly on a B788. With business/financial routes like San Francisco, LA, Shanghai being filled, Tokyo is the missing piece of the puzzle to me.
And some wild speculation on my part...
TPE - I believe I've seen a route from China Airlines from TPE-MAN via BKK. This may make sense as regards MAN-BKK but how the rest of the route would perform I'm not sure.
ICN - KAL seem interested in MAN with the cargo route. Seoul would be a major business route for the North but I have no information on how popular it is indirectly?
Vietnam (HAN/SGN) - VN may be interested in joining a growing list of routes to the Far East. This would have to be a LCC route.
AKL - whilst Qantas have their successful JV with Emirates, ANZ have no equivalent. Passengers from MAN are routed via SQ. ANZ currently have a moratorium on new routes to Europe, but are undergoing a general period of expansion. They have leased a LHR slot to CX, but show no sign of taking it back. My guess is that any new route to Europe would be to a *A hub (FRA) but you never know.
The other notable comment was that of a BA return to long haul at MAN being "not on the immediate radar". This marks a softening of position and is something to keep an eye on.
Please feel free to comment and discuss.
The single most important thing to have happened since the last update was Brexit. No one yet knows how this will impact MAN (or, quite frankly, UK plc) so watch this space.
Current Routes where changes may occur
JFK/EWR - continues to go from strength to strength with TCX, DL, UA and AA operating a pretty much daily service that is slightly
Reduced in winter. TCX are aiming to go to daily in summer 2017. This may or may not be possible due to aircraft shortages. AA and UA are moving towards offering a widebody service, with VS taking over from DL using an A333 from March.
IAD – a seasonal operated by UA which looks to have been suspended for the entire winter season. Whether this is due to the news about IAH or underlying lack of demand remains to be seen.
ORD – as with IAD, this is also a seasonal route (with only January to March being free of flights). This is currently operated by the B788 although there have been reliability issues. This may be one for UA to examine with their hub at ORD (I note DL are looking to expand here so they may also be in the frame). I'd like to see this become year round.
MIA – operated by TCX and to be increased to 3x weekly. May be a route where more competition could join in time, could be a good way for VS to rotate off a west coast route?
ATL – I would like to mention this, as it is a route that has been performing very well. It will be interesting to see whether the addition of more services to other parts of the US by VS and others affects this route.
LAX – TCX have commenced 2x weekly using the A330. This will remain at 2x weekly over the winter. It was due to increase to 3x weekly from summer 2017 although lack of aircraft seems to have scuppered this for now. There have been rumours about VS being interested in this route but there has been no specific public comment. I fully expect VS to commence this route by the summer of 2018 unless economic headwinds bite.
BOS – commenced the route at 2x weekly in May using the A330. This looks seasonal for now, but VS are entering the market in March 2017. If Norwegian can sort out their issues we may see a third operator.
HKG – CX have performed superbly on this route and it is expected that the current 4x weekly will be doubled to 8x weekly. It is not known whether the B77W will continue to be used (they do well on freight) or if this will change to the A359.
SIN – the most interesting move since the last update. SQ will now fly nonstop to SIN and also to IAH. The downside is it is 5x weekly for now, and there are mixed reports about whether it is planned to increase in future. Perhaps SQ will be happy with daily MAN and 5x weekly IAH? Who knows but it is better than Scoot... Next steps are to agree codeshares with UA, Flybe and *A partners.
DXB – EK continues to perform strongly from MAN. It seems likely that either a 4th daily (most likely B77W) will be announced in 2016.
AUH – as with the other members of the MEB3, EY are having a good year. They are at a point where they have a 2x daily B77W service, which are very full, and to increase capacity they are either looking at using an A380 or more likely adding a third daily flight. They have indicated they want to bring it to MAN one day, and one of MANs renders of the TP shows an EY branded A380. Moving to a three daily operation and using more A330s and B789s seems to me to be the most likely next step if they want to increase capacity.
DOH – QR seem to take two steps forward and one step back. From 16x weekly down to 15. Now starting to see a more consistent B77W/B788 product.
ISB/LHE – PIA are in the midst of a battle with Shaeen, so there may yet be further capacity poured into this route or cut backs.
YYZ – currently served seasonally by Air Canada Rouge and Air Transaat. There is talk that the AC mainline operation during July was a tester to commence full time operations from next summer. There are good reasons why that may not be the case. I am confused why there is no year round daily service to YYZ - from AC or Rouge. It just seems odd.
PEK – Hainan started this route on 10 June 4x weekly using the A333. This has already been up-gauged from the A332, due to the amount of advance bookings. It is due to go daily from the start of 2017.
Soon to Start
SFO – VS are to start this route in March 2017 at 3x weekly using the A333. I hope this proves not to be seasonal and we will see this bed down at close to a daily flight. Previously, TCX seemed to have tipped their hand at starting this route in the summer 2017 at 2x weekly using the A330. This was scuppered due to lack of aircraft.
PVG – Air China are expected to announce this shortly, presumably it will use the A330 but no indication about frequency. I think it is reasonable to assume that they will mirror Hainan and start at 4x weekly with an aspiration to go daily.
MCT - the surprise (to me) is that Oman Air will start a daily flight to Muscat from March 2017 on a B788. On sale from 15 September.
IAH - starting with SQ in October at 5x weekly. Great route great airline. Hope they sort the codeshares and connections at each end and it should be a success. As with SIN, mixed view on whether it is planned to go daily in future.
DTW - all but confirmed for S17 albeit there is no indication on whether it will be run by DL or VS.
Unserved Routes that may be feasible in the short/medium term
DFW – a major hub for AA, primarily for South America. AA have previously tweeted their desire to run MAN-DFW using a B788 but given the problems with the B788 at ORD and SQ running to IAD, this seems likely to be in the back burner.
SAN - might be a good bucket and spade route for TCX. Quite how this may be impacted by other west coast routes remains up for discussion.
SEA - this may be one for DL/VS although I expect LAX to be higher up their pecking order of routes.
CTU - a possibility for Air China. The region of Chengdu has recently agreed to a £1bn investment into the Sheffield City region, evidence of the growing economic ties between China and the North or England.
CAN - rumoured to be under consideration by China Eastern using a 3x weekly B788. The downside of sorts is that it is close to Hong Kong and may impact CX, but by that time CX should (hopefully) have a settled daily operation.
XIY - anticipated 2x weekly by Hainan. Would be an interesting routing and tourism destination on the B788.
KUL – previously served by MH using the B744 this remains a major market that is consistently in the MEB3’s (and Turkish) most popular destinations ex MAN. MH are apparently (and incredibly) going through an expansion phase albeit there is no information about European expansion plans. This may be a TCX, Air Asia X or Norwegian route.
BKK – TG have apparently had their eye on MAN for some time but are in a poor financial position. BKK-MAN is apparently the third most popular (by gross numbers) unserved route on earth (200k per year - approx 1x B77W round trip per day), and with onward connections my view is that they would do well. Yield seems to be the major issue. However, NokScoot, TCX and Norwegian could be options, as could a surprise full service carrier from further east.
CPT/JNB – these have been tried in the past, but SAA are not in a position to run the route so we are looking at domestic operators. I think TCX or VS can make MAN-CPT work as a 3/4x weekly operation – particularly in winter. Perhaps the cruise stories are true?
DEL - Air India. Understandably their focus is on Birmingham but I would find is astonishing if AI did not commence MAN by the close of 2018 on the B788.
BOM – Vistara (founded by SQ) are currently in the process of founding an international network. Apparently MAN is slated to be one of the first cluster of destinations.
RUH – strong indications that Saudia will start this, quite when is unclear.
ADD - on the MEN hitlist, must be with Ethiopian. I'd not expected this but a welcome route into a major african hub, with the possibility of a tag to somewhere in North America.
Tehran - with the opening up of ties to the Middle East this is surely a matter of time?
HND – JAL have been sniffing around, but very little seems to have happened. Rumoured at 4x weekly on a B788. With business/financial routes like San Francisco, LA, Shanghai being filled, Tokyo is the missing piece of the puzzle to me.
And some wild speculation on my part...
TPE - I believe I've seen a route from China Airlines from TPE-MAN via BKK. This may make sense as regards MAN-BKK but how the rest of the route would perform I'm not sure.
ICN - KAL seem interested in MAN with the cargo route. Seoul would be a major business route for the North but I have no information on how popular it is indirectly?
Vietnam (HAN/SGN) - VN may be interested in joining a growing list of routes to the Far East. This would have to be a LCC route.
AKL - whilst Qantas have their successful JV with Emirates, ANZ have no equivalent. Passengers from MAN are routed via SQ. ANZ currently have a moratorium on new routes to Europe, but are undergoing a general period of expansion. They have leased a LHR slot to CX, but show no sign of taking it back. My guess is that any new route to Europe would be to a *A hub (FRA) but you never know.
The other notable comment was that of a BA return to long haul at MAN being "not on the immediate radar". This marks a softening of position and is something to keep an eye on.
Please feel free to comment and discuss.
User001
New Member
- Jul 16, 2015
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Nice work Dobbo.
It must have taken a while to write all that up, and there are no routes I really disagree with other than TPE.
I just don't see there being enough demand to warrant any flights to that point beyond the one stop options we currently have.
There was once a time TPE commanded a decent cargo market to the UK (as a kid I had umpteen toys 'made in Taiwan'), hence the China Airlines cargo flights, but since the upsurge in mainland China manufacturing, that cargo has dwindled (although interestingly, despite several website updates, Manchester has never been removed from the CI cargo website).
It must have taken a while to write all that up, and there are no routes I really disagree with other than TPE.
I just don't see there being enough demand to warrant any flights to that point beyond the one stop options we currently have.
There was once a time TPE commanded a decent cargo market to the UK (as a kid I had umpteen toys 'made in Taiwan'), hence the China Airlines cargo flights, but since the upsurge in mainland China manufacturing, that cargo has dwindled (although interestingly, despite several website updates, Manchester has never been removed from the CI cargo website).
I think all of the possible successful routes are highly likely except DFW and KUL. Although KUL has recently been operated from MAN, it may adversely effect SQ or be affected by SQ. DFW is unlikely considering SQs launch to IAH which will offer UA connections and the troubles AA have had with the 788 at ORD. I hope UA go 763 to EWR given the wealth of connections and maybe introduce ORD.
I do think HU will go daily given the great success and when PVG launches it will follow. CTU I think will be likely given that the routes conference is there and MAG is attending and CAN has been rumoured for a while despite it's proximity to HKG.
San Diego was on the MEN hitlist and Ethiopian also - apparently they are in advanced talks with MAN.
DEL should be soon too - really hope so.
I agree with Tokyo and I really hope it will work out eventually.
I hope DL metal operates the DTW route as it will be odd not seeing such a familiar tail in MAN. Do keep us updated with any developments regarding this!
MAN is certainly going through exciting times. I just wish it could be confirmed whether the 'A350' is Thai to BKK or not and PVG is extremely annoying how it keeps materialising and then dropping off. I hope it will come off in 2017.
Also I have never heard Saudia to RUH? Is this route being talked about for next year?
Amazing work - must have taken a long time to write this and what a great read it is!
I do think HU will go daily given the great success and when PVG launches it will follow. CTU I think will be likely given that the routes conference is there and MAG is attending and CAN has been rumoured for a while despite it's proximity to HKG.
San Diego was on the MEN hitlist and Ethiopian also - apparently they are in advanced talks with MAN.
DEL should be soon too - really hope so.
I agree with Tokyo and I really hope it will work out eventually.
I hope DL metal operates the DTW route as it will be odd not seeing such a familiar tail in MAN. Do keep us updated with any developments regarding this!
MAN is certainly going through exciting times. I just wish it could be confirmed whether the 'A350' is Thai to BKK or not and PVG is extremely annoying how it keeps materialising and then dropping off. I hope it will come off in 2017.
Also I have never heard Saudia to RUH? Is this route being talked about for next year?
Amazing work - must have taken a long time to write this and what a great read it is!
Dobbo
New Member
- Oct 27, 2015
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Maybe, maybe not. It's good to see "exotic" routes to the regions.
I wonder what their good news story is? ATL seems to have been in the pipeline for ages! Maybe it is something else?
I want to go to Japan so much and to fly direct from MAN would be amazing. I think Japan could be great for business/investment and if the right advertising was done for tourism too!
I have my fingers crossed for all of the potential airlines - Air China, Thai, Air India and the like! Hope we hear some confirmed news soon!
Which airline would operate to Tehran? And what are the rumours about SV to RUH? Are the load factors good to JED?
- Moderator
- #415
Tehran would be Iran Air surely?
I would think that too. What is the demand to Tehran from Manchester as I am unsure?
Where you can understand the demand for some like BKK I can't for Tehran. Arrgghh! I am so excited in case the new route is BKK with Thai but still don't know for sure!
Where you can understand the demand for some like BKK I can't for Tehran. Arrgghh! I am so excited in case the new route is BKK with Thai but still don't know for sure!
David_itl
Well-Known Member
- Jan 31, 2016
- 2,089
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The problem MH had was that the 772s that that they were using were very good in terms of only having 2 classes. Instead of adding frequency, they went for upping capacity by going to 744s - not sure if they offered F out of MAN but to have not done that would have surely been a slight waste as by upgrading J class to F class they missed out on some F class fares. There was also the handicap that they were some travellers didn't appreciate the flight - I remember reading in a Sunday newspaper about a family whose KUL-LHR was being delayed and MH tried to do something pro-active by putting them on KUL-MAN instead. They complained about this "inconvenience". The only problem was..... they lived in Altrincham.
Mahan Air were the ones that used to operate BHX-IKA and MAN-IKA. However, I think they are banned from coming here (I did read a while ago that they were on a blacklist) so it would appear to be Iran Air. However, I imagine that the immediate focus would be to broaden their reach to all the major capitals and replace current aircraft on existing routes with the ones they are planning on ordering. Can't see IKA coming along any sooner than 2020 at the earliest. Tehran itself may have limited draw but it's even better placed than the ME3 for connecting the world.
I keep mulling over that A359 thing and the only one I can think of is TG!
User 001 could you confirm what it is as soon as you can or tell us whether we have guessed it between us?
I agree regarding IKA we should focus on the likes of HND/BKK/DEL
User 001 could you confirm what it is as soon as you can or tell us whether we have guessed it between us?
I agree regarding IKA we should focus on the likes of HND/BKK/DEL
This ties in nicely with what User 001 was saying about the 'new route' for winter 17. It would also have a tourism campaign and he said the route would be tourism but also offer connections. This pointed to BKK but then he said it is a star alliance legacy carrier A350. Considering SQ is the only *A carrier with an A350 that currently goes to MANand they have comitted to the Houston routing they seem unlikely.
This left three possible options: Asiana, Ethiopian and Thai.
He said it wasn't Asiana and although ET are in 'advanced talks with MAN' it wasn't them so all the evidence points to Thai.
Please someone - IS IT THAI?!!
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Well it looks like I'm off to Australia and New Zealand next year! Booked with BA from Manchester via Heathrow with a stop in Singapore and returning with Air New Zealand and BA via LAX to Heathrow. Will circumnavigate the globe and be my first trans-Pacific flight. First long haul flight with BA as well and of course Air NZ.
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