Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Dobbo]

To be quite frank, a huge amount is possible over the next 24 months. From November 2014 (i.e. before CX started) the following news has filtered through or routes started:

• Cathay Pacific start 4x weekly and have publicly announced an intention to go daily.
• Emirates have announced all A380 (3x daily).
• Virgin Atlantic have announced or started New York, Boston, San Francisco - with the promise of more to follow with MAN treated as a "hub".
• Thomas Cook have started/announced Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, significantly increased New York and seem certain to start Cape Town and San Diego.
• Singapore Airlines have gone back to non-stop to Singapore and added Houston.
• Hainan have started Beijing at 4x daily, added a larger aircraft on the route due to popular demand and announced an intention to go daily.
• Air China have applied to start Shanghai and are actively seeking to start.
• Oman Air are to start Muscat as a daily operation.

There are some bad news stories, a lot of things have stalled, and I bet I've missed a few things, but if that list is extrapolated over the next 24 months very little of what I said in yesterdays post (individually) is unrealistic.

 

[ethanegcc]

From anna.aero revealing Skyscanner's most searched/popular currently unserved routes.
MAN-BKK features although it is not exactly 'revealing' as we all knew this was a massive market anyway. Will TG ever come to the fold? Is there still rumour of W17 359?

so if we follow anna.aero's title of '1.6million people want London-Bali route', we can come to the simple conclusion of no less than 1.5 million want a Manchester-Bangkok route! According to this it must also be the largest unserved market from BKK and indeed Thailand!

 

[User001]

Says the MAN-BKK figure is 1,528,699.

As said in the BHX thread, we need to treat these figures with caution.

while there is no doubt that MAN-BKK is a huge in served route (OAG analyser has it as the 3rd largest unserved long haul route based on indirect routings), 'searching' for a flight, and having the actual intention to book a flight are 2 different things.

OAG had the indirect market in the 200-250,000 annual pax range, so, if we go off that figure alone, we know there is a market based on volume, but yield has always been the trickier one to persuade.

 

[ethanegcc]

Has there been no change in what you can reveal about the supposed 359 W17 service?

All we currently know is that it will be a full service, star alliance, 359 and a tourism campaign will begin in December, unless there have been any changes to this.

 

[Dobbo]

As many other routes have launched with a much lesser strength of market, I don't think it is unreasonable to expect someone to "have a go" and launch a MAN-BKK route.

We must remember that the likes of EK enjoy a strong indirect market on this route and this route will chip away at that if it goes ahead.

Let's wait and see.

 

[Scottie Dog]

The problem with all of these new wished for 'direction services' is that they will no doubt have an effect on the ME3 brigade.

It will be interesting too see what happens and how the routes will develop.

 

[Jerry]

All we currently know is that it will be a full service, star alliance, 359 and a tourism campaign will begin in December, unless there have been any changes to this.

Thai Airways and Asiana are both Star Alliance and operate or are going to operate A350-900s.

 

[Dobbo]

The problem with all of these new wished for 'direction services' is that they will no doubt have an effect on the ME3 brigade.

It will be interesting too see what happens and how the routes will develop.

Great minds SD!

 

[David_itl]

The thing is, Emirates had the highest market share of MAN-somewhere-HKG. The recent 3rd daily feature didn't list HKG amongst the top 9 destinations yet Emirates passengers numbers keep on growing despite the non-stop HKG route in operaton!

I'm not too sure that the market heading East is in any way saturated at the moment. BKK is, and always will be, the tough nut for MAN to crack with it having done the rounds since 1991 (hmmm... wonder if MAN threw a silver jubilee party for the longest standing route rumour in aviation!) Whoever does take it on has to ensure that the mix is right so that there's a limited premium class, perhaps selling it as premium economy class then rather than go for the normal business class and then have a rather large economy class.

 

[Dobbo]

I don't beleive TG are especially premium heavy in any of their aircraft configurations. They would alo be well placed to pick up a decent chunk of the one stop kangaroo market.

In my view EK (with QR/EY) will retain their market share because the present market at MAN makes it possible for them to offer multiple daily flights (and therefore options on departure times) on shorter sectors like MAN-Middle East (circa 7 hours) whereas It is much harder for the Far East carriers where a sector trip is almost double that and the market is probably not strong enough to support it.

We may well see a multiple daily schedule from a Far East carrier, but running through the list that is some way off. CX have expressed the intention of 8x weekly but remain at 4x weekly, SQ are about to drop to 5x weekly, HU are still settling in and CA are yet to get off the ground.

In the meantime, the MEB3 can continue to add capacity. Fair play to them.

 

[ethanegcc]

Yes, I understand it may dent EK capacity slightly but as daviditl rightly says Hong Kong didn't have an adverse impact on their growth. TG's planes are fairly well suited to the market with the 77Ws they operate from Scandinavia to Bangkok/Phuket which aren't really business flights having 42J and 306Y. There is also a strong connections market to Australia and adverts are quite prominent advertising Thailand as a great business destination. The configuration of TG's 359s is 321 seats in total with 32J and 289Y. This would be a perfect aircraft I believe to launch a MAN-BKK route.

I do cite SQ increasing again to daily - there was some rumour of that happening in April.
I also hope that CX finally act on their rumour, although with the impact Brexit has supposedly had on them, I don't see it yet.
I can see HU going daily - there was some rumour of this happening on January 1st and now relations between London and Beijing have somewhat settled...
Will CA ever find the slots in PVG to launch?

 

[Dobbo]

I hear the sound of tough nuts cracking...

 

[ethanegcc]

Yet another clue to having a BKK flight, why else would they do such a thing in MAN?
I know CX did a stall with their J product etc. in MAN after their HKG launch.

 

[ethanegcc]

I have decided to do an updated summary of any routes news and rumours (8th October 2016):
- Thai Manchester-Bangkok
They had an event yesterday promoting Thai tourism, sponsored by themselves (see Dobbo's post), MAN-BKK is one of the largest unserved markets and largest out of Thailand (according to anna.aero) and we know there will be a W17 Star Alliance, A350-900 route with a tourism campaign. Is this tough nut finally cracking?
Might they also do a Scandinavian style operation, where the flight continues or stops at HKT?
-Air China Manchester-Shanghai
A long standing rumour, User001 posted on airliners.net that Charlie Cornish would be speaking about connections between Shanghai and Manchester on 21st October. Is an official announcement looming?
-Oman Air Manchester-Muscat
Already announced by Oman Air and the CEO said a couple of weeks ago that all they needed was board approval. It will be operated Boeing 787-8 daily using Terminal 2. Just waiting for the flight to become bookable which will be 'before Christmas'. The times, credit to User:
WY105 1405 MCT 1920 MAN
WY106 2050 MAN 0730 MCT
-Hainan Airlines Manchester-Beijing
Will they go daily for next summer? Lot's of rumours about this and at one point it was even expected for Jan 1st.
Is there any likelihood of another route other than PEK from HU such as Manchester-Xi'an?
-BMI Regional Manchester-Cagliari
Another link to Sardegna since the last overview, operating in a W pattern from their Bristol base, next summer. The timings:
BM9357 CAG 1130 MAN 1325
BM9356 MAN 1415 CAG 1810
I assume this will be operated by an ERJ145
-Vueling base
Lots of rumours about expansion at MAN and possibly a base for next year. BCN goes daily year round.
-Air Canada, Manchester-Vancouver and Manchester-Toronto expansion
Rumours on various forums about Manchester-Vancouver being in the next spate of expansion and some stating that it will be full service, tapping into the Seattle-Manchester IT market. Manchester-Toronto is also dubbed to be operating for a longer season, still under AC Rouge. Any updated information on this would be great.
-Singapore Airlines Singapore-Manchester-Houston
Launches end of this month, marking the reintroduction of direct flights between Manchester and Singapore. They hold enough slots so could they go daily once more by April as expected?
-Thomas Cook, Manchester-Cape Town, Mauritius and San Diego
Cape Town appeared in the GDS, looks likely for W17, as does Mauritius. Will San Diego come off for S18?
They recently announced SFO also and I figured I may aswell summarise their expansion:

The timings for TCX MAN-SFO are:
MT2864 MAN 1200 SFO 1435 332
MT2865 SFO 1635 MAN 1030 +1 332
With VS, this will make S17 see MAN-SFO 5 weekly.

MAN-LAX will be upgraded to three weekly:
MT2824 MAN 1155 LAX 1445 332
MT2825 LAX 1645 MAN 1055 +1 332

MAN-JFK will be upgraded to seven weekly (with two flight numbers):
MT2852/MT2848 MAN 1035 JFK 1255 332
MT2849/MT2853 JFK 2200 MAN 0955 +1 332
This makes S17 frequency to New York (JFK/EWR) 28 weekly.

MAN-BOS will be upgraded to four weekly (again with the two flights numbers, I presume as a result of the Air Tanker A330):
MT2680/MT2862 MAN 1300 BOS 1510 332
MT2681/MT2863 BOS 1735 MAN 0455 +1 332
This makes S17 frequency to Boston (BOS) 7 weekly.
-Virgin Atlantic, any more expansion on the horizon?
BOS WILL be three weekly from July, making MAN-BOS 7 weekly with TCX.
I doubt than MAN-SFO will go year round but it depends on whether the business traffic is high enough to link the two cities, even twice weekly year round. 3x SFO and 3x BOS is pretty good utilization for an A333.
Will they ever launch LAX, MIA, DTW? Could they operate a similar model e.g. 3x MIA, 3x LAX with one more based aircraft? Could they even contemplate SEA?

Just to mention, the timetables for VS MAN-BOS and MAN-SFO are as follows:
Manchester-San Francisco 3 weekly
VS125 MAN1120 – 1440SFO 333 Sunday
VS125 MAN1155 – 1515SFO 333 Tues, Fri
VS126 SFO1705 – 1140+1MAN 333 Sunday
VS126 SFO1730 – 1205+1MAN 333 Tues, Fri

Manchester-Boston, 2 weekly from inaugural, 3 weekly from July:
VS121 MAN1520 – 1750BOS 333
VS122 BOS2005 – 0740+1MAN 333 (a much more civilised time of arrival from BOS into MAN than TCX )
-Easyjet Expansion
A LCC battle is ensuing. The following expansion has been made:
-MAN-HAM becomes 10 weekly, up from 5, against Eurowings increased capacity next summer (12 weekly 320, instead of CRJ) and Ryanair daily. This means MAN-HAM now has 29 weekly flights. Careful not to overkill.
-MAN-SXF has risen from 8 weekly to 13 weekly flights, in the midst of a Ryanair increase also.
-MAN-ATH rises from 3 times weekly to 4 times weekly, making it effectively 'daily' with Aegean summer 3 weekly.
-Monarch (should they survive until April)
New routes of ZAG, ARN and OPO. Interesting as they are going up against SK and DY on ARN and Easyjet on OPO. However, ZAG marks another European capital ticked off for us.
-Icelandair Manchester-Reykjavik summer expansion
Although Icelandair have daily MAN-KEF flights throughout winter, this summer they operated just 3 weekly. Next summer according to routesonline, they will operate 5 weekly flights.
-Emirates goes all A380 earlier than expected
Around a month ago, Emirates announced all A380 operation from 1st January, switching the morning 77W flight to 388 operation, in line with the two other A380 frequencies per day! Due to advance bookings, we will also see a period of three 388 operations throughout October. However, this is a decrease in cargo capacity, so will EK add a 4th 77W flight or a cargo service?
-Will there be an Etihad increase on the horizon?
With EK, SV increasing capacity and WY opening a new daily route, attempting the same market as the ME3, could EY get a third daily flight with a 789?
At MAN, it is now the ME5!
-BA expand their brand presence at MAN
BA are about to launch an 11 weekly Bremen service under the brand of subsidary Sun Air. This means their are now two carriers on the MAN-BRE route.

Are there any more recent expansion or rumours I have missed?

 

[ethanegcc]

MAN's Current/Officially announced to begin Long Haul, direct route network (I missed off St Lucia)

What it could look like by the end of next year (I could be more optimistic):

I am in the process of doing a European one, although that one isn't nearly as exciting or has as many prospects.

 

[Chilly Dog]

VS to BOS is three weekly from 26 July:

15JUL17-11AUG17 MTWTFSS MANCHESTER /BOSTON
26JUL ..3.56. MAN BOS 1520 1750 VS 121 333*C
22JUL ..3..6. MAN BOS 1520 1750 VS 121 333*C

 

[Dobbo]

I don't know if it falls under your criteria, but the Emirates all A380 news?

When all is laid out, the increases are phenomenal.

Although most traffic (and traffic growth) is short haul, looking back at 2010 where the airport handled 17.7m passengers, it is not unrealistic to think that the airport may around 9 million higher than that by the close of 2017. That is a huge increase in anyone's book.

 

[ethanegcc]

Yes I agree - I will add the Emirates A380 news in now.
When you see the long haul route network on paper also, for a small nation in geographic terms' third largest airport - pretty impressive!

If you factor in that on the majority of the US routes we have two or more carriers and multiple daily frequencies on some US/ME routes.

 

[Dobbo]

VS to BOS is three weekly from 26 July:

15JUL17-11AUG17 MTWTFSS MANCHESTER /BOSTON
26JUL ..3.56. MAN BOS 1520 1750 VS 121 333*C
22JUL ..3..6. MAN BOS 1520 1750 VS 121 333*C

3x weekly SFO and 3x weekly BOS is pretty good utilisation for an aircraft.

What price on 3x weekly LAX and 3x weekly MIA in 2017 with another based A333?

 

[ethanegcc]

I hope so! I would also hope they may consider 3x SEA, 3x LAX as there is a lot of relations between MAN and SEA as well as business traffic and there is an extremely large DL feed from both these airports, unlike MIA.