Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Dobbo]

Surface access is clearly an issue - specifically how much it will all cost and who pays for it (no one wants to).

LHR being forced to agree to suck up the airfield cost without passing it off to airlines in the form of increased charges is also an issue. They probably have to do this in order to avoid a legal challenge on competition grounds - LGW is not in a position to compete because the government has prevented them from expanding. If LHR took advantage of this to abuse an (artificially created) dominant position they would never be able to build the infrastructure or if they had built it they would probably be liable for an enormous fine.

Of course the option to expand both LHR and LGW was never on the table because of the terms of reference (if the government recommended expanding both the decision would have invariably been set aside via JR).

 

[Dobbo]

Dobbo, even I, cautious though I am, would hope that Shanghai, Bangkok and Cape Town happen within less than 5 years if you were applying those routes to the 5-10 years time frame you mention. After all, those 3 were originally anticipated for 2017. Or were you referring to other desirable routes?

The start point for this has to be the 11 routes put forward by Ken O'Toole back in July 2016:

1. Delhi - this would be Air India. Brexit blamed for a delay, but the present environment is such that this route seems a matter of time.
2. Mumbai - this would be Scoot routing SIN-BOM-MAN. No update on this, or whether AI might be interested, but as with the above the direction of travel points fairly firmly in the right direction.
3. Houston - launched on SQ in November 2016 at 5x weekly on the B77W. Route goes A350 next week and hopefully daily thereafter.
4. San Diego - TCX route, low frequency (probably double weekly). Brexit blamed (i.e. the falling pound).
5. Detroit - Delta route for the summer peak. Brexit presumed to blame (as above this will be the falling pound).
6. Cape Town - TCX, Brexit blamed. This will probably be a winter 2018 launch anyway so no rush.
7. Johannesburg - no information (I presumed this would be a Norwegian route - I assume SAA is unrealistic).
8. Addis Abba- this would be Ethiopian. No recent information, but it is only a matter of time before MAN gets a regular link to this major African hub.
9. Bangkok - this would be TG and possibly another loco operator (Nokscoot). I don't know if this has been delayed but the route was due to be a winter launch. If news is not forthcoming in the next couple of months it can be assumed that it has been delayed.
10. Shanghai - delayed due to slot issues at Shanghai. MAN is in a queue, I think this is a matter of time and I expect it will come together quite quickly when it happens.
11. Oman - launches daily in May.

There are then a number of possible new destinations we have heard about subsequently, including:

• Kuwait
• Tokyo
• Various Norwegian routes including Fort Lauderdale and upstate New York airports.
• Tehran (Id be shocked if they don't appear).

There are also the updates to existing routes:

• HKG - 5x weekly on the A350. I'd bet we hear about a daily route in 2017.
• SIN/IAH - as above.
• DOH - looks like QR wants to go triple daily.
• DXB - the only way up from here is to add a 4th daily (possibly not every day of the week).
• AUH - they cannot allow their rivals to expand unchecked can they?

 

[Scottie Dog]

Interesting post on another forum to say that Thomas Cook start Cape Town on 10th January 2018 - schedule is shown as 2230 departure from Manchester.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Just a clarification here (and no wish to get into partisan politics). But a bit of Economics for Dummies is called for. Whilst "Brexit" is a convenient cover for many ills, it is not to blame for every economic road-bump we face. Economic challenges occurred long before the Brexit referendum and they will continue to arise long afterwards. But blaming Brexit for everything serves to keep unpopular political decisions or economic policies out of the spotlight for scrutiny.

It is tempting to think in terms of "weak pound bad, strong pound good" but that disguises the reality. Just as low interest rates are great for those with loans and mortgages and terrible for those with savings, so too a weak currency exchange rate implies big winners and big losers. Governments and Central Banks quite routinely prefer a weaker currency as it is deemed to boost export-competitiveness. Obviously, we're not talking extreme basket-cases like Zimbabwe and Argentina here, but lopping 10-20% off a nation-state's exchange rate is often embraced positively by politicians and central bankers.

The UK is actively pursuing a weak pound policy. There is nothing unpredictable about this ... it has been clearly signalled to the financial markets. The weak pound is Bank of England policy TFN. We know this, because if one wishes to strengthen a currency the central bank must raise interest rates and tighten the money supply. If one wants to weaken a currency the central bank will reduce interest rates and implement measures such as QE (digital money-printing). These are the mechanics of exchange-rate intervention. The political bit is whether one wants a strong or a weak currency ... both outcomes advantage some and disadvantage others. It depends who you are. Different political interest-groups benefit from different policies on this.

The political side of all this is a discussion for elsewhere. But we can interpret the mechanics (as the markets do) and speculate about the impact on our favourite industry. Back on August 4th, the mainstream markets had recovered quite sharply from the Brexit result. No issue there. The only (arguable) remaining economic casualty was the fall in the value of sterling - and that had already recovered to well above its post-referendum lows.

Under the guise of counter-acting the negative effects of the Brexit decision, Mark Carney (Governor of the BoE) announced (4th August) that interest rates would halve from 0.5% to 0.25%, and that £60Bn would be added to the UK's already loose QE (money-printing) programme alongside other accommodative measures (buying up multiple billions in government and corporate debt). Remember: the fall in the pound was the primary negative effect of the Brexit result. If the objective was genuinely to counter that, measures required to strengthen the pound were a rise in interest rates and steps to tighten the money-supply. Carney announced the opposite.

An analogy for the above would be to announce: "In order to boost the water-level in the bath, we're going to pull out the plug and switch off the taps." If the effect of the Brexit result was a weaker pound, you can't counteract that by reducing interest rates and printing money. That action ensures further weakening of the pound ... so clearly that was wanted by policy-makers for other political reasons.

Again, there are political arguments for favouring a weaker / stronger currency depending on your viewpoint. That partisan discussion isn't for here. But the mechanics are clear: our policy makers want a weak pound and the markets have been left in no doubt about this. So airline businesses and travellers must plan for a weak pound because right now that is BoE policy. Brexit is a convenient cover-story for a controversial policy which disadvantages many.

At the end of March, if Article 50 is triggered on the flagged date, we should see more shockwaves in the currency markets. It remains to be seen whether the BoE wishes to defend the pound at that point or whether they are content to see it trade lower still (which is considered "good" for the economy by some).

I realise all this may seem a bit peripheral to our usual discussions. But the link is important to understand. If the pound is encouraged to fall (or even held around current low levels), foreign travel for those of us who account in sterling will become increasingly expensive. Conversely, visits to Britain become cheaper for overseas-based travellers. Though, unfortunately, inbound tourism-flows overwhelmingly favour London's airports as opposed to Manchester where the majority of travellers reside in the UK. So a weak pound is a net drag on growing passenger throughput at Manchester Airport. Right now, our principal based carriers are betting that UK-based customers will still choose to travel abroad. So far, so good. Capacity is pencilled-in to increase. But the bookings must come through. If they fall short of expectations prudent consolidation of flying-programmes will follow. That is why 2017 stats-forecasts are a really tough call. Will the market hold its nerve as this evolves?

 

[Aceshigh]

MAG versus MAG ?

http://www.independent.co.uk/travel...y-long-haul-new-ryanair-flights-a7523976.html

But tedious from The independent who once recognised Manchester as a major airport but are now consumed by all matters London!

 

[Jerry]

Surely though that goes against Ryanairs model as an airline? Ryanair are a low cost airline not a feeder one.

 

[ethanegcc]

Interesting post on another forum to say that Thomas Cook start Cape Town on 10th January 2018 - schedule is shown as 2230 departure from Manchester.

Where did you get the schedule from?

 

[Scottie Dog]

Apparently it is/was showing in Amadeus. Bits of information have been posted by LAX_LHR on 'dried fruit' and I noticed a post on a Facebook site.

 

[Dobbo]

Id be interested to hear your views on unserved long haul routes. Which 5 do you see as the most important for MAN's future development? (NB - not currently served routes where you would like to see an improved service)

Here are mine, and reasons:

1. PVG - a regular link to the financial centre of China is crucial to the development of the North.
2. TYO - as above, a direct link to the capital of Japan (also a major tourist destination and hub for north east asia)
3. DEL - link to the major hub of the Indian sub-continent.
4. BKK - a huge O&D market from MAN. May pinch passengers from EK et al, but this should really be served.
5. ADD - a main Hub for sub-Saharan Africa.

The routes that just missed the cut were KUL (I chose BKK), JNB (I chose ADD), GRU (I don't think MAN is ready for a South American link before the above).

The 5 existing routes I would like to see an improvement on are:

1. LAX - Ideally we would have a carrier on this route offering a regular (5+ weekly) with access to a hub at LAX.
2. PEK - daily service would firmly establish the route in Hainan's network.
3. HKG - as above, a daily service firmly establishes the route and allows much better competition with the MEB3 and makes it more attractive to businesses and travel agents.
4. SIN - as above for HKG.
5. JFK - this is a slightly unusual one. For the size of the market, demand is clearly seasonal and the airlines on this route cut their cloth accordingly. I would like to see an airline bite the bullet and offer a year round daily service on a widebody on this route.

 

[Coathanger16]

I'd generally agree with everything you've said. Getting daily flights on most if not all of the existing long haul routes should be a priority. It will help make MAN more of a hub and will attract new airlines and long haul destinations.

My only gripe is Tokyo - there are only a handful of cities in Europe with direct links to Tokyo, and the majority are major hubs (LHR, CDG, AMS, FRA). Whilst I agree it should be a goal, I wouldn't expect to see it before 2020 at the earliest.

 

[Dobbo]

Yes, of the unserved routes I've mentioned this will probably be the last piece in the jigsaw.

There are daily flights to the likes of DUS and BRU, and we have also heard MAN calling for a direct route so it is not unrealistic in the next 3-5 years. The issue will be the high costs of a Japanese airline (now higher due to currency fluctuation) and the lack of onward connections (TYO is the end of the line).

The philosophy should be to bolster the existing routes. Getting a daily service to the likes of LAX, SFO, SIN, HKG, PEK, PVG, TYO, DEL on top of existing daily routes would significantly increase MAN's attractiveness.

The American routes are frustrating in that there is no certainty of schedule and product. Both of these I think have helped the MEB3 to grow at MAN and I would like to see this replicated going west.

 

[ethanegcc]

For me, 2017 is shaping up to be a slight disappointment after it was hyped up, with most plans for bases dwindling.

My main priorities are:
1. JFK - widebody year-round. I was hoping Delta would be a 767-300ER for W17, although it is currently showing as 752. The other option is for MAN-EWR to become 763.
2. PEK - daily flight with Hainan
3. PVG - needs to launch, clear demand, in the pipeline, I just hope it materialises
4. BKK - again, there is extreme demand and I am hoping it will be pulled off in W17
5. LAX/MIA - full service carrier with a more frequent service - I am thinking Virgin for both of these routes
6. NRT - needs to be worked on but I think is perfectly viable for a 4x weekly 788 link. The European airports with direct links to Tokyo are:
MAD, DUS, LHR, CDG, AMS, BRU, WAW, CPH, HEL, FCO, MXP, IST, MUC, FRA, ZRH. (BCN in the pipeline)
Current airports with direct links to Beijing:
MAN, MAD, BCN, LHR, CDG, AMS, BRU, DUS, TXL, ARN, HEL, OSL, CPH, FRA, MUC, WAW, MSQ, PRG, FCO, MXP, ZRH, VIE, IST (I think both of these are more or less correct.)
Current airports with direct links to Shanghai:
MAD, LHR, CDG, AMS, FRA, MUC, VIE, ZRH, FCO, MXP, CPH, HEL (BCN, BRU, MAN in the pipeline)
Current airports with direct links to Seoul:
PRG, HEL, FRA, MUC, AMS, CDG, AMS, BCN, MXP, ZAG, FCO, LHR, IST

So, actually Tokyo has more airports served in Europe than Shanghai by the looks of it, so Tokyo is more likely than some think for MAN, I believe. Seoul is also a possibility in my opinion.

I also think the 'Tokyo is end of the line' argument correct but not necessarily viable; if the price was right people would connect to destinations such as South Korea etc. I am sure. Connections to the rest of Japan are also aplenty.

 

[Dobbo]

Yes, if demand across Japan from the MAN catchment is wide enough a good range of domestic connections are available.

The difference between the MAN-TYO and MAN-PVG/PEK markets are that TYO would be primarily an outbound market (i.e. UK originating) whereas PVG and PEK are primarily inbound (i.e. Chinese originating). That probably makes is much less likely than TYO but not impossible.

 

[ethanegcc]

I really hope BKK is pulled off by TG, this year. It would certainly top off the year and make it worth while. The demand is certainly there; the 359 is the perfect aircraft; the connections from BKK are great, so I really hope it can materialise. I also still hold out hope that Beijing may go daily; any thoughts?

 

[Coathanger16]

Whilst yes Tokyo has it seems quite a number of European destinations, for the main part, besides the major hubs, these routes are served by European carriers.

Out of 17 European cities served direct from Tokyo, only 7 (Brussels, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, London, Moscow, Munich & Paris) are served by a Japanese airline. Seeming as any route from Tokyo to Manchester will mostly likely only be served by a Japanese carrier, I'm not sure how much of a priority Manchester is for them. Don't get me wrong, a direct link to Tokyo would be a real boost for Manchester, I just personally wouldn't expect it any time soon.

My general view of Manchester currently going forwards is as follows:

Manchester already has a large selection of long haul destinations served. Whilst the management team should always be scouting out potential new airlines & destinations, the priority I feel should be getting a daily (or as close as possible) service to every destination currently served. That would make Manchester a much more attractive airport to airlines and who knows, you may get a Japanese airline approaching Manchester Management instead of the other way around.

I support Manchester's growth as much as the next, but I feel that with what could be coming over the next few years, the priority should be retaining and growing current services.

 

[Dobbo]

I am told MAN has been in dialogue with ANA, JAL and KAL but is (obviously) not there yet.

I agree the priority is to thicken out existing routes to daily and year round operations. IF some gaps in the existing network (BKK, ADD, PVG, DEL) can be filled in at the same time, that would be great.

 

[ethanegcc]

Up to 2020, BKK, ADD (or other African hub), PVG and DEL should be filled (with DTW/SAN/TPA as extras, along with possibly BOM). Aside from this, route increase/seasonality wise by the end of 2018:

1. JFK - widebody year-round on DL (763) or UA to EWR
2. ORD and/or DTW - year round link to mid-west hub
3. LAX and/or MIA - Virgin or other full service carrier operation and higher frequency for LAX
4. YYZ - Air Canada mainline or rouge on a longer season (year-round?)
5. PEK - daily flight (could happen this year)
6. SIN - daily flight (could happen later this year if performance is good)
7. CPT - longer season and twice weekly flight (will be assessed on W17 performance)
8. SFO - year round with Virgin Atlantic

And, just to summarise, routes I would certainly expect to see by 2020:

1. PVG - four-weekly with Air China
2. BKK - five-weekly/daily with Thai (could continue to HKT). I am hoping for this to happen late this year.
3. DEL - either Air India or Jet Airways, definitely a market - possibly summer 2018 launch?
4. ADD or NBO or JNB - one of the major African hubs. Ethiopian may choose to route their TATL operation through MAN

And, ones I would like to, but might be a bit less certain (listed in likelihood from likely to very unlikely but possible):

1. DTW - five-weekly DL 763 or 752
2. TPA/SAN - new TCX expansion destinations
3. KWI - new Kuwait Airways destination
4. WAW - LOT route with E195?
5. SVO - Aeroflot with A320S/738?
6. TLV - El Al with 738
7. RUH - new Saudia destination, perhaps (333/789 thrice weekly or daily in a triangular rotation with JED?
8. BOM - Scoot routing or possibly Jet Airways/Vistara
9. CAN - new China Southern destination, 787-8 thrice weekly?
10. TYO - would certainly be towards the 2020 mark, if not further (see above discussions)
11. SEA - new Virgin/Delta destination - close business/tech and cultural links - good for a DL 763 summer seasonal?
12. ICN - see TYO

Any thoughts or additions on the above would be appreciated. (RUH and down are quite unlikely)

I generally agree about Tokyo but is more than possible and I would expect to see it by 2022, for example.

 

[Aceshigh]

There used to be some vociferous discussion on prune regarding the announcement of new routes that used to start and indeed stop with the Manchester evening news. Havn't seen anything lately however.

Thriwing my hat in the ring I believe things have improved but there is still a bias toward Gtr Manchester.

It would be great if there was a strategy that targeted possible traffic at the other end of the route.

I haven't seen by way of exsmple any copy from say the Boston Globe or the New York Times announcing new routes to Manchester, by definition it doesn't then seep into the consciousness of the travelling public at the other end of the route !

 

[Dobbo]

Yes, even the LAX route created a slightly bizarre comment from an LA based journo.

Good to see SFO promoting the route. MAN needs to make the most of some of the tourist attractions in it's hinterland that are attractive to Americans. Not just the likes of Man U/Man C, but Chatsworth, Castle Howard, The Lakes, "Harry Potter Train Bridge" - even the attractions of Northern Ireland (get on the GoT bandwagon - let a lone the war of the roses background).

That sort of thing would help raise awareness.

 

[Jerry]

Yes, even the LAX route created a slightly bizarre comment from an LA based journo.

Good to see SFO promoting the route. MAN needs to make the most of some of the tourist attractions in it's hinterland that are attractive to Americans. Not just the likes of Man U/Man C, but Chatsworth, Castle Howard, The Lakes, "Harry Potter Train Bridge" - even the attractions of Northern Ireland (get on the GoT bandwagon - let a lone the war of the roses background).

That sort of thing would help raise awareness.

And Castles! Americans love the Castles over here and the big country estates like Downton Abbey. MAN could even promote access to Hadrians Wall!