Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Aceshigh]

I suspect part of the TG mindset is trying to fill an A380 out of Heathrow which my understanding suggests carries loads which are at best average.

Plus from the other side of the World Manchester and Heathrow look adjacent? Maybe it needs somebody to show them the massive market share they are losing.
I'm not sure MAG would want to do that and sour relations with another customer.

 

[Dobbo]

I'm not sure I agree with that mindset, but accept there could easily be a mentality of "serving all of the UK from London".

Plenty of far eastern carriers serve MAN and a London airport. Hopefully TG will be no different in time.

 

[Dobbo]

Seems Air China are there with BCN-PVG. By my reckoning, MAN is next in the queue for slots...

http://www.cerodosbe.com/es/transpo...para-unir-barcelona-y-shanghai_19328_102.html

 

[Aceshigh]

Well, what a difference a week makes!

Quite optimism re USA expansion And now some shocking scenes at major US airports flashed across the main bulletins.

It may all die down of course, the travelling public is pliable and fickle but it can't go on otherwise it will become irreversible, we can't have a "running sore" of policies that switch the British public off visiting the US otherwise it won't just be Washington that worried us but the whole shooting match including pre clearance.

Don't forget if there are no US airlines (as far as I'm aware) there is no pre clearance !

And suddenly the summer doesn't look quite as rosy!

 

[ethanegcc]

I don't think the policies will "put off" British travellers. The 'special relationship' is firmly in force and, no matter who is in the White House, America is still America. The general public are the same, the sights are the same, the landscape is the same. As long as the policies don't become even more extreme, I think the general public will remain with a high propensity to fly transatlantic.

 

[ethanegcc]

Replying to further up this thread, TG are dropping one weekly frequency and switching some flights out of LHR to the smaller A350, in winter 2017. Preparatory measures for a Manchester operation or poorly performing UK market?

 

[Aceshigh]

I had heard most A380 were almost empty ex LHR.

 

[David_itl]

CAA stats: HEATHROW BANGKOK SUVARNABHUMI 72855 in 2016 61407 in 2015 = up 18.64283%

Let's assume BA do daily772 seating 283 pax = 17546 pax
EVA do daily 77W seating 333 pax = 20646 pax
So total non-Thai availability = 38192 pax
Leaves Thai with 34663 pax. Their A380s have 502 seats operating 2 daily = 62248 pax. Min load 55.7%

But this assumes both BA and EVA are carrying 100% loads which is unlikely

 

[ethanegcc]

I think their 388 only operate one daily, with the other service being 77W but not entirely sure.

 

[David_itl]

Also need to bear in mind that EVA operate LHR-BKK-TPE. TPE is down 7000 pax so not unreasonable to say that's what they carry to/from BKK. Would leave 48000 pax for Thai

21576 pax on a 77W daiily
31124 pax on a A380 daily

If 77W is 100% load then A380 load = 27000/31124 = 86.75%

2 A380s sees min load of 77%

 

[Dobbo]

77-86% seems much more likely.

As noted with MAN, yield will be an issue.

 

[ethanegcc]

But we do forget that TG operate flights such as that from DME-BKK, CPH/ARN/OSL-BKK and FRA-HKT motivated almost entirely by tourism. On some flights, Thai sell business class as premium economy.

 

[Aviador]

A significant proportion of the orthodox and ultra orthodox Jewish diaspora will only travel on El-AL.

I think that's because they consider it as the safest airline to travel.

 

[Dobbo]

But we do forget that TG operate flights such as that from DME-BKK, CPH/ARN/OSL-BKK and FRA-HKT motivated almost entirely by tourism. On some flights, Thai sell business class as premium economy.

That shows it's possible, but the underlying issue remains. I'm certainly in the glass half full camp on this...

 

[ethanegcc]

certainly in the glass half full camp on this...

Me too. There was also the event in Manchester city centre, sponsored by Thai itself. I am quite optimistic and certainly hoping it will happen.

Thai's aircraft aren't especially premium-heavy either. If an A359 wasn't available, I am sure the 787-8 would be just as, if not more, suitable for a Manchester operation.

If not Thai, then NokScoot or TCX need to grab the opportunity of one of, if not the largest unserved air travel market in Europe.

I am sure EGCC_MAN, will be happy to hear however, even I don't have much trust in TG until they get on the ground

 

[Dobbo]

Timing might be key, as MAN-BKK is always liable to be jumped by someone like NokScoot...

 

[ethanegcc]

If Thai get on the route first, it is likely that they will gain passengers from the MEB3 and keep them, once they realise that there is a non-stop service.

If NokScoot arrive first, however, it pretty much ends any possibility of Thai entering the market.

 

[ethanegcc]

The CEOs of Lufthansa and Etihad are holding a joint news conference tomorrow. The two airlines are increasingly closer together, thanks to the bad performance of Air Berlin (invested in heavily by Etihad). Rumour also has it that Alitalia are getting in with Lufthansa. There is speculation that the news conference tomorrow will announce that Etihad intends to join star alliance - something that according to some sources is 'nearly finalized'.

With Jet Airways' increasing cooperation with SkyTeam, and Etihad joining star alliance, it is likely that the partnership will diminish.

EY is seen as the primary factor that Jet are not/will not launch flights to Manchester, whereas it seems an obvious choice e.g. compete with AI at BHX, connect to the VS/DL partnership at MAN. If the partnership with EY is diminished, do you think it will change MAN's fortunes in a link to India with Jet Airways?

 

[Dobbo]

It looks like EY are moving towards closer cooperation with LH.

Whether that also means ties with Jet are loosened or cut remains to be seen. If those ties are cut, then that is one commercial obstacle removed and we may see Jet at MAN if the remaining barriers can be overcome.

 

[Dobbo]

TfN's aspirational route network for "high frequency" (minimum 5x weekly) services by 2050.

http://www.transportforthenorth.com/wp-content/uploads/International-Connectivity-Report_websafe.pdf

It notes that MAN has the second highest frequency of flights between Europe and the Middle East but expects this reliance to decrease over time.

The below does not include Europe and does not include year round 5+ weekly routes (eg New York, Singapore, HK, Houston, Dubai etc).

The routes that are not currently 5x weekly and year round are as follows:

• Rio de Janeiro
• Miami
• Charlotte
• Washington DC
• Boston
• Toronto
• Chicago
• Las Vegas
• Los Angeles
• San Francisco
• Vancouver
• Calgary
• Cape Town
• Johannesburg
• Mauritius
• Riyadh
• Colombo
• Mumbai
• Delhi
• Bangkok
• Kuala Lumpur
• Manila
• Beijing (soon to be daily)
• Shanghai
• Guangzhou
• Tokyo
• Melbourne
• Sydney
• Auckland

I'm not clear how Auckland, Sydney or Melbourne are intended to be served. I assume not via a direct non stop flight - but by 2050 who knows where technology will be. There are a great number of one stop options here, but perhaps they want QF and NZ to serve direct?

The report also notes other destinations could be served at a lesser frequency and suggests Denver, Dallas, Seoul, Durban, Lagos and São Paulo. I also think Osaka and other Chinese cities may be realistic by then.