CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Ray Finkle]

Both Emirates and Air India saw Feb load factors of around 86%, Qatar were down in the 70's but still saw around 1600 more pax than EDI.

One figure that is interesting is Turkmenistan where Heathrow saw 736 pax in Feb yet Birmingham saw 3107 pax. Bearing in mind that LHR is 2x weekly and BHX is only 3x weekly it's quite amazing that we have four times the amount of pax. I have to wonder if Uzbekistan are keeping tabs on this.

 

[123]

Although the CAA figures are only half complete at present, my quick workings show Dubai 16.5% up on last Feb.

BHX 67742 up from 58120 in Feb 2016 16.55%

MAN 81066 up from 78918 2.7%

LGW 74467 up from 71004 4.9%

 

[Kevin Farnell]

Although the CAA figures are only half complete at present, my quick workings show Dubai 16.5% up on last Feb.

BHX 67742 up from 58120 in Feb 2016 16.55%

MAN 81066 up from 78918 2.7%

LGW 74467 up from 71004 4.9%

Thanks for the figures, 123!

Having looked through the latest CAA figures (and seeing that they had omitted 2016 pax numbers), I looked back at my saved 2016 files and came up with the same percentage increase as yourself for BHX -DXB.
With regard to overall pax numbers, I'm quite impressed as to how BHX compares with both MAN and LGW.
I realise that there is a difference between loads and yield, but in terms of 'bums on seats', BHX looks quite good in comparison, especially considering the number of A380 services from MAN and LGW.

Regards

Kevin

 

[123]

Someone can correct me if this is wrong, but my understanding is the A380 provides 188 extra seats each way over the two class 777.

So 188 x 2 = 376

376 x 28 days = 10528 extra seats compared with last Feb

This Feb was up 9622 over last year. Using 91.4% of the extra capcaity provided.

 

[Coathanger16]

Someone can correct me if this wrong, but my understanding is the A380 provides 188 extra seats each way over the two class 777.

So 188 x 2 = 376

376 x 28 days = 10528 extra seats compared with last Feb

This Feb was up 9622 over last year. Using 91.4% of the extra capcaity provided.

I believe it may actually be better than that. Anyone correct me if I'm wrong.

Feb 2016 had 29 days (equating to 1002 pax in each direction each day), whilst Feb 2017 had 28 days (equating to 1210 pax in each direction each day).

That represents an additional 208 pax in each direction each day this Feb over last Feb, which means that not only was the new capacity used fully, LFs were up across all flights.

Due to the different lengths of February this year to last year, I make the LF's at 78% last year and 82% this year across all 3 flights.

 

[Kevin Farnell]

Someone can correct me if this is wrong, but my understanding is the A380 provides 188 extra seats each way over the two class 777.

So 188 x 2 = 376

376 x 28 days = 10528 extra seats compared with last Feb

This Feb was up 9622 over last year. Using 91.4% of the extra capcaity provided.

Hmmm? On first reading, this looks very impressive. I think many people reading this, would infer an increase of 91.4% over Feb 2016. This however, would only be correct if Feb 2016 flights were 100% full.
To get a true picture of the percentage increase, then the extra pax (9622) need to be divided not only by the extra seats available, but in addition those unsold in Feb 2016.
Statistics is a subject that can be manipulated to the advantage of interested parties (please don't take this as a criticism, 123), but as a Scientist (Chemistry, with an interest in Physics) I'm always looking for 'what isn't shown' along with 'what is shown'.
I always go by the old adage 'There are lies, Damned lies and Statistics'.

Regards

Kevin

 

[123]

No worries, I was more interested in the possible timing of future A380s. I understand there were holes in the calculation. I was just making the point the introduction of the first A380 boosted supply of seats by 10528 in comparison to last Feb and demand has risen 9622.

 

[Kevin Farnell]

No worries, I was more interested in the possible timing of future A380s. I understand there were holes in the calculation. I was just making the point the introduction of the first A380 boosted supply of seats by 10528 in comparison to last Feb and demand has risen 9622.

Cheers 123
I see your logic.

Regards

Kevin

 

[Aceshigh]

Does anybody have a breakdown of Flybe figures?

Some of the Manchester routes are well down.

I'm curious if this is a trend across the network or specific to Manchester.

 

[IanFarquharson]

Feb 17 was the first month ever that EK have acheive an average load of 400+

 

[Ray Finkle]

Yesterday saw BHX pass 12 million pax in a 12 month period for the first time in it's history. Details are on Gordon's blog if someone wants to link to it (I'm on my phone).

 

[Matt995]

Birmingham Airport welcomes "12 million passengers in a year" for first time in the airport's history

Birmingham Airport has recorded a new milestone as it continues a journey of unprecedented
growth, breaking through the "12 million passengers in a year" mark for the first time

The record was hit on Easter Monday, 17 April 2017, when the 12,004,124 passengers were
recorded travelling over the last twelve months, between Monday 18 April 2016 and Monday
17 April 2017. This represents a 14.3 percent increase in passenger numbers year on year

The milestone comes less than a year after breaking the 11 million passenger mark on the
Friday 19 August 2016 and 20 months after smashing through the 10 million mark on the
Thursday 27 August 2015

The Airport has recorded 25 months of consecutive record passenger growth as it continues
to attract more airlines, routes and passengers to the Midlands' largest airport

Birmingham Airport's Chief Executive Officer, Paul Kehoe, said: "We're proud to have served
12 million people since last April as we continue our journey of growth and I would like to
thank of all our passengers, partners and employees for making this happen"

"We will continue to invest in our facilities to improve the customer experience and keep
working hard to attract new airlines that offer exciting destinations to enable the Midlands
economy to grow and tourists to explore"

Over the last year, the Airport has welcomed a number of new airlines, including Jet2, Iberia
Express, Czech Airlines, Alba Star, Cobalt and bmi regional, and this summer will welcome
FlyOne and the return of British Airways to Birmingham Airport

http://bhxflightguide.blogspot.co.uk/

 

[Brum X]

Great to see BHX hit 12 million passengers.

 

[Butty]

Quite incredible: one million additional passengers in 9 months. I still reckon we will pass 13 in December, but hold out hope for earlier! What next though?

 

[Jon Dempsey]

Quite incredible: one million additional passengers in 9 months. I still reckon we will pass 13 in December, but hold out hope for earlier! What next though?

Well, flew out to Dublin last Thursday at 08:00 and there was bags of space in the terminal. The only queue occurred because just 1 bus was assigned to the flight. I guess this is down to Ryanair.
Arrived back on Monday night at about 23:00 and this was pretty painless as we did not have to pass the UK border and wait in the "sheep dip" queue.

 

[IanFarquharson]

March 2017 - Int Pax

DUBLIN 86,022 down -1.14 %
DUBAI 69,700 up 1.50 %
AMSTERDAM 54,458 up 6.56 %
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA) 37,252 up 21.61 %
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE) 34,442 down -2.34 %
MALAGA 25,485 up 15.48 %
FRANKFURT MAIN 25,218 down -7.63 %
ALICANTE 25,017 down -0.76 %
DUSSELDORF 24,755 up 22.14 %
GENEVA 19,837 up 16.83 %
BARCELONA 19,588 up 0.84 %
ARRECIFE 17,922 down -3.34 %
MUNICH 17,882 up 7.78 %
BRUSSELS 13,434 up 41.81 %
FUERTEVENTURA 13,387 up 4.50 %
DOHA HAMAD 11,245 up 1548.83 %
FARO 9,874 up 6.19 %
MADRID 9,621 up 143.14 %
ISTANBUL 9,450 down -18.74 %
LAS PALMAS 9,068 down -26.75 %
SOFIA 8,458 up 998.44 %
ZURICH 8,049 up 2.39 %
ISLAMABAD 7,626 up 6.90 %
COPENHAGEN 7,555 up 14.00 %
MILAN (MALPENSA) 6,952 down -18.31 %
AMRITSAR 6,809 n/a 0.00 %
DELHI 6,769 down -51.16 %
CORK 6,649 up 5.27 %
BRIDGETOWN 5,738 down -2.00 %
BERLIN (TEGEL) 5,337 up 17.58 %
HURGHADA 5,300 up 238.66 %
MONTEGO BAY 5,034 down -14.48 %
CANCUN 4,920 up 1.84 %
CHAMBERY 4,889 down -1.89 %
NEW YORK (NEWARK) 4,850 down -18.07 %
MALTA 4,773 up 20.23 %
STUTTGART 4,741 down -24.29 %
KEFLAVIK 4,651 down -8.10 %
BRATISLAVA 4,608 down -1.77 %
BYDGOSZCZ 4,570 down -6.10 %
VERONA VILLAFRANCA 4,519 up 213.82 %
WARSAW (MODLIN MASOVIA) 4,408 n/a 0.00 %
ROME (FIUMICINO) 4,392 up 0.09 %
GRENOBLE 4,372 down -0.59 %
PALMA DE MALLORCA 4,299 down -49.57 %
LISBON 4,297 n/a 0.00 %
ASHKHABAD 4,236 down -7.51 %
LARNACA 4,060 down -10.22 %
FUNCHAL 3,996 up 4.12 %
LYON 3,959 down -6.23 %
PRAGUE 3,955 n/a 0.00 %
HANOVER 3,828 down -5.74 %
INNSBRUCK 3,722 up 19.10 %
KRAKOW 3,676 up 1.41 %
BUDAPEST 3,643 up 2.42 %
ILHA DO SAL C.VERDE 3,556 up 85.59 %
MURCIA SAN JAVIER 3,416 up 33.59 %
KATOWICE 3,229 up 16.78 %
PAPHOS 3,187 up 1.40 %
GDANSK 3,149 up 2.34 %
TURIN 3,119 up 1.66 %
BUCHAREST (OTOPENI) 2,999 up 764.27 %
SHANNON 2,913 up 13.39 %
PUNTA CANA 2,856 n/a 0.00 %
WARSAW (CHOPIN) 2,836 up 7.67 %
VILNIUS 2,781 up 740.18 %
TOULOUSE (BLAGNAC) 2,767 up 1256.37 %
WROCLAW 2,661 up 133.01 %
GIBRALTAR 2,450 down -27.64 %
POZNAN 2,326 down -0.98 %
VENICE 2,248 down -2.60 %
HAMBURG 2,170 down -6.34 %
BOA VISTA (RABIL) 2,168 up 4.84 %
SALZBURG 2,126 down -19.80 %
IRELAND WEST(KNOCK) 1,925 up 246.22 %
MARRAKESH 1,843 up 125.58 %
LUXEMBOURG 1,412 n/a 0.00 %
BANJUL 1,381 up 4.38 %
DUBAI (WORLD CENTRAL) 1,083 n/a 0.00 %
NANTES 990 n/a 0.00 %
PADERBORN 650 down -41.86 %
GIRONA 647 n/a 0.00 %
ANTALYA 610 down -79.99 %
OPORTO (PORTUGAL) 609 n/a 0.00 %
PARIS (ORLY) 592 n/a 0.00 %
GRAZ 577 n/a 0.00 %
AQABA 570 n/a 0.00 %
VIENNA 508 n/a 0.00 %
NAPLES 476 up 151.85 %
IBIZA 402 down -16.08 %
REUS 377 n/a 0.00 %
BORDEAUX 327 down -6.57 %
SANFORD 292 down -49.57 %
NICE 284 n/a 0.00 %
LIEIDA 261 down -62.34 %
DALAMAN 204 down -85.52 %
CHANIA 180 n/a 0.00 %
DORTMUND 149 n/a 0.00 %
BERGEN 142 n/a 0.00 %
PERPIGNAN 140 n/a 0.00 %
RIGA 138 n/a 0.00 %
LEIPZIG 118 n/a 0.00 %
BERGERAC 116 n/a 0.00 %
KIRUNA 97 down -57.46 %
IVALO 84 n/a 0.00 %
SANTANDER 64 n/a 0.00 %
AARHUS (TIRSTRUP) 42 n/a 0.00 %

 

[Ray Finkle]

Dubai so close to 70k.

Madrid has tailed off a bit, it was only up 143%

 

[58terminus]

Thanks Ian
Just wondering if you were working on load factors ? Always very interesting until they turn into discussions
about yield which tends to be guess work on forums.

 

[IanFarquharson]

AI = 86%
EK = 76%
QR = 71%

 

[JF57]

AI = 86%
EK = 76%
QR = 71%

These imply if EK pull the early morning flight they will not have enough seats. Lucky QR have some spare!