CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Butty]

New York down 18%. Trump effect no doubt, given the cessation of AA.

Would like to see some of the destinations at the bottom of the list become regulars or year round routes. Nice would be nice.

 

[Barry Beeth]

Holy schmoly, up 21.7% in April, 1,063,290!

 

[Ianbutty]

Holy schmoly, up 21.7% in April, 1,063,290!

That is a big rise.

No mention of jet2 in the press release. At this rate 15 million sometime in 2018? Surely not.....nah...2019. Why be greedy. But, Mr PK, you had better start expanding the terminal.

 

[Ianbutty]

Holy schmoly, up 21.7% in April, 1,063,290!

That is a big rise.

No mention of jet2 in the press release. At this rate 15 million sometime in 2018? Surely not.....nah...2019. Why be greedy. But, Mr PK, you had better start expanding the terminal.

 

[Brummiegem]

WOW!!!
Terrific news.

Does anyone know what the biggest monthly rise in pax numbers we have had at BHX?
Agree with IanButty re.the terminal!

 

[Ray Finkle]

Good stuff.

The question was asked about whether the arrival of Jet2 would spread the market more thinly or whether it would stimulate demand, I think the early signs are positive

It's going to be interesting to see the individual route analysis.

 

[JF57]

Good stuff.

The question was asked about whether the arrival of Jet2 would spread the market more thinly or whether it would stimulate demand, I think the early signs are positive

It's going to be interesting to see the individual route analysis.

Don't forget Easter was March last year and April this year so we need to average them both to give a true figure.
Actually add PAX for both months last year then this year then calculate increase.
Last month we were moaning about a small March increase due to Easter move.

 

[Ray Finkle]

2016

March 831 174
April 873,965
Total 1,705,193

2017

March 904,814
April 1,063,290
Total 1,968,104

I make that an increase of circa 15% for the two months?

 

[paul]

Great passenger figures

 

[JF57]

2016

March 831 174
April 873,965
Total 1,705,193

2017

March 904,814
April 1,063,290
Total 1,968,104

I make that an increase of circa 15% for the two months?

Well done Ray. I had to dash off and do something so thanks for digging out the figures and doing the calculation. A nice average increase. More realistic than the 21%.

Looking good for the summer.

 

[Brum X]

Holy schmoly, up 21.7% in April, 1,063,290!

That's what i said which also means that BHX is the fastest growing airport in europe if MAN at 17% growth is the second fastest growing airport.
Great results again from BHX

 

[David_itl]

Think the MAN claim is for the 25 million plus passengers airports. I'd contend that BHX should be in the top 3 in Europe in the next tier of airports. Absolutely amazing numbers for both airports and with the Jet2 effect going to be in place for the next 11 months as well, we should be talking at least 10% to 15% growth in this year for BHX and at least 5% to 7% for next year.

 

[58terminus]

Just read the BHX press release and it's the first time i have seen the word "footfall" used in this context.
Isn't this used by the retail business to as an analysis of how many enter a shop as opposed to how many actually buy something? Having collected somebody from the airport in April i guess i count as footfall.
Maybe somebody could tell whoever composed the release they are called passengers.

 

[nwoody2001]

April Pax 2017

January - 775,176 (+16.1%)
February - 807,773 (+11.5%)
March - 904,790 (+8.9%)
April - 1,063,290 (+21.7%)
May -
June -
July -
August -
September -
October -
November -
December -

Year to date total = 3,551,029
Year to date growth = +14.6%

Rolling 12 month total = 12,099,304 (+14.9%)

So 4 months in and applying the average rolling 12 months growth to our 2016 pax numbers, this gives us a 2017 projection of circa 13,380,000 pax for 2017….

This is the second highest rate of growth for the airport in the last 18 months (which is an amazing feat). Yes we had easter in this month instead of march in 2016 which has bumped up the % but we are still far ahead of many of our competitors. All in all a great result and a great start to 2017!!!

 

[IanFarquharson]

I dont think we will get to 13.38m, my estimate is now nearer 13.00m than 13.20m

 

[nwoody2001]

purely statistics and projections based on the last 12 months

 

[IanFarquharson]

Just over 10% every month (May-Dec) will give us the 13m
2017 % +/-


775,176 16.27%
807,733 11.54%
904,814 8.86%
1,063,290 21.66%
1,115,000 10.66%
1,240,000 10.77%
1,355,000 10.83%
1,425,000 10.82%
1,335,000 10.53%
1,185,000 10.19%
860,000 10.30%
935,000 10.32%


13,001,013 11.67%

But then if May comes in at 15% and this continues

2017 % +/-


775,176 16.27%
807,733 11.54%
904,814 8.86%
1,063,290 21.66%
1,160,000 15.13%
1,290,000 15.24%
1,410,000 15.33%
1,485,000 15.48%
1,390,000 15.09%
1,240,000 15.31%
900,000 15.43%
975,000 15.04%


13,401,013 15.11%

 

[Ianbutty]

Interesting article on Airport World.

http://www.airport-world.com/news/g...numbers-on-the-rise-at-europe-s-airports.html

Looks like eastern Europe continues to fuel huge growth across many airports in the last quarter. Turkey recovering, but Istanbul still down by 7%.

Also stansted up 11%, Luton up 16%, Glasgow 8.9%, Man 17.1% which is amazing for an airport of that size. No news from Edi.

The good news is everywhere is doing extremely well. The mega airports growth is low by comparison. Are they reaching saturation point as far as their markets is concerned?

 

[Coathanger16]

Also stansted up 11%, Luton up 16%, Glasgow 8.9%, Man 17.1% which is amazing for an airport of that size. No news from Edi.

BBC is reporting 13% growth for Edinburgh - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-39882612

The mega airports growth is low by comparison. Are they reaching saturation point as far as their markets is concerned?

To be fair, its much harder for larger airports to have similar growth percentages as smaller airports. Whilst BHX had a phenomenal growth of 21.7%, LHR in comparison had growth of 11.3%. On the surface, this looks like BHX has done better. However, these stats translate to BHX adding about 190,000 passengers compared to last year, whilst LHR added around 685,000 - which is better now?. To match the 21.7% that BHX grew, LHR would have to add about 1.3 million passengers - approximately 7 times as many as BHX!

 

[58terminus]

BBC is reporting 13% growth for Edinburgh

The BBC are not even probably aware there is an airport in Bham