CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[thunderchild]

Jet2 will add valuable seats to the holiday and city break market and Monarch are showing some promise but I still think we either need Easyjet, or some proper attention from Ryanair, to propel us towards the 15 mppa figure. There is good reason that they are Europe's largest loco's.

I think growth might start to slow next year; while there are still plenty of unserved routes out there only a handful of those are likely to be taken on by our existing carriers. Like you say Monarch are showing promise and Jet2 could offer an alternative to the likes of Amsterdam, Berlin and Rome but with EasyJet showing no interest and Ryanair clearly in bed with MAG these days I think future growth could be quite limited.

Let's hope 2018 does prove to be interesting.

 

[Coathanger16]

This does seem to be a recurring problem that airlines have previously chosen other airports over BHX and now don't want to start flights from BHX out of fear it will impact their loads from other airports.

A lot of the routes that are under served or even not at all would be perfect for the likes of easyJet, Virgin & Thomas Cook, but they have and always will choose Luton/Manchester over BHX every time.

BHX seems to be much more reliant on foreign carriers than other airports across the UK are.

 

[58terminus]

This does seem to be a recurring problem that airlines have previously chosen other airports over BHX and now don't want to start flights from BHX out of fear it will impact their loads from other airports.

A lot of the routes that are under served or even not at all would be perfect for the likes of easyJet, Virgin & Thomas Cook, but they have and always will choose Luton/Manchester over BHX every time.

BHX seems to be much more reliant on foreign carriers than other airports across the UK are.

Sorry but this looks like Brummie pessimism again.No announcements for a while and doom and gloom descends.
2014 9.6m passengers 2017 13m+?

 

[IanFarquharson]

Lots going on behind the scenes, we just need to be patient !

 

[Jerry]

BHX seems to be much more reliant on foreign carriers than other airports across the UK are

That does have it's advantages in that those foreign carriers may well be more likely to bring in tourism from there countries than a British airline like Monarch. If you look at the spread of airlines at BHX it does mean it's not beholden to 1 or 2 or 3 single airlines like say Luton or Bristol is. I'm sure there are airlines flying out of BHX that BRS and LTN would love to have. From a CWL perspective i would love to see Monarch or Jet2 flying from here or Vueling doing TFS or Norwegian doing LPA or Cobalt finally confirming LCA!
BHX has 42 airlines flying from it and to it and that has to be a credit for the route development team at BHX! BRS has 19 and LTN has 14 and EMA has 11 just for comparison.

 

[Coathanger16]

Sorry but this looks like Brummie pessimism again.No announcements for a while and doom and gloom descends.
2014 9.6m passengers 2017 13m+?

On the contrary, that's been my view for many years. Sure Birmingham has experience phenomenal growth over the past few years but certain markets that have historically been under served still aren't served as much as they should be.

I appreciate where you're coming from though. I think most of us on here are guilty of doing it from time to time.

 

[Coathanger16]

That does have it's advantages in that those foreign carriers may well be more likely to bring in tourism from there countries than a British airline like Monarch. If you look at the spread of airlines at BHX it does mean it's not beholden to 1 or 2 or 3 single airlines like say Luton or Bristol is. I'm sure there are airlines flying out of BHX that BRS and LTN would love to have. From a CWL perspective i would love to see Monarch or Jet2 flying from here or Vueling doing TFS or Norwegian doing LPA or Cobalt finally confirming LCA!
BHX has 42 airlines flying from it and to it and that has to be a credit for the route development team at BHX! BRS has 19 and LTN has 14 and EMA has 11 just for comparison.

Some very good points.

Certainly having a wider selection of airlines operating from BHX lessens the impact if one of those airlines were to go under.

 

[IanFarquharson]

Agreed, can you imagine what would happen in the short term to LGW, LTN, BRS, LPL etc if Easy went bust or STN and EMA if Ryanair went bust.
BHX is in a good place, saying that I got a bit nervous about MON last year

 

[Ray Finkle]

I agree with the above but do we not want just one airline to really start growing Birmingham at a fast pace, adding much needed capacity and new markets in the process?

I know we have Jet2 arriving but they won't be adding anything not already available and in their current network only Pisa and Thessaloniki are unserved from BHX (this is not a moan as their additional capacity is desperately needed and I am very excited about their future potential). Norwegian and Vueling also offer just more of the same (Orly aside).

Would we not love an Easyjet base adding more capacity to Athens, Berlin, Hamburg, Rome, Copenhagen, Milan and Munich? Giving us scheduled flights to Marrakech, Catania, Kefalonia, Mykonos, and Santorini? Opening new markets such as Basel, Olbia, Bilbao, Marseille, Tel Aviv, Thessaloniki and Granada?

Would we not love Ryanair to start taking us seriously and adding more capacity to Hamburg, Stuttgart, Rome, Milan, Frankfurt, Budapest, Naples, Valencia, Marrakech and Lisbon? Opening new markets such as Cologne, Brindisi, Bergamo, Zadar, Seville, Riga, Pisa and Bologna?

Most airports have a strong base from one of Europe's big two, Easyjet or Ryanair (or both), we don't really have either. Who knows, maybe in the next few years Monarch could venture into some of these markets, they have shown promise recently and once their internal issues are sorted hopefully they will go on to bigger and better things.

I take the point about the dangers of relying on one company but lots of airlines each having just a sprinkling of the basics results in overlap on the main destinations with many other routes then either remaining unserved or suffering from a lack of capacity. Do we not now want one airline to take BHX by the balls and really go to town?

Go bold or go home!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Agreed, can you imagine what would happen in the short term to LGW, LTN, BRS, LPL etc if Easy went bust or STN and EMA if Ryanair went bust.
BHX is in a good place, saying that I got a bit nervous about MON last year

They'd be in the mire. BRS certainly would with over half its passenger numbers down to easyJet and nearly a quarter Ryanair. LBA would be in a mess if Jet2 was no more there. Then again, airports such as EXT and SOU rely almost exclusively on Flybe with no other airlines worth serious consideration in terms of the numbers of passengers handled. Flybe is also very big at CWL and DSA and they would suffer significantly if Flybe went belly up or pulled out of those airports.

The so-called low-cost revolution of the past 15 years or more around the UK has brought rich dividends to many of the smaller airports but in any business it's always a dangerous thing to rely too heavily on one customer.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Record passenger growth figures continue for Birmingham Airport with March showing the airport handled 904,790 passengers – over 73,000 more than the same month in 2016 and an 8.9 percent increase.

https://www.birminghamairport.co.uk...&utm_campaign=SocialSignIn&utm_source=Twitter

 

[nwoody2001]

March Pax 2017

January - 775,176 (+16.1%)
February - 807,773 (+11.5%)
March - 904,790 (+8.9%)
April -
May -
June -
July -
August -
September -
October -
November -
December -

Year to date total = 2,487,699
Year to date growth = +12.2%

Rolling 12 month total = 11,909,979 (+14.2%)

Still pretty early days only on the 3rd month so pretty hard to read much into it, but applying the average rolling 12 months growth to our 2016 pax numbers, this gives us a 2017 projection of Circa 13,300,000 pax for 2017….

This is the slowest rate of growth for the airport in the last 18 months (which is an amazing feat) but still off to a strong start. Maybe the loss of AA is kicking in? However, we should still be on target to pass the 12,000,000 rolling Pax figure around April?!? I calculate we will need to see growth of 10.3% in April which hopefully should be achievable with easter?

Anyway, BHX press release here....
https://www.birminghamairport.co.uk...-to-spring-experienced-at-birmingham-airport/

 

[Brum X]

Good to see record growth at BHX once again and we are slowly catching up on EDI which only managed a 4.1% increase.

 

[Ray Finkle]

So, so close to 12 million.

With Jet2 now up and running we should pass it very soon, if we already haven't?

Six more Jet2 routes coming at the end of the month along with two from Monarch. May sees three new routes from Thomas Cook, one from Thomson, two from BMIR, two Flybe Greek routes and four from BACF. June then sees another four new routes from Monarch and the arrival of Fly One.

Assuming that the load factors hold up I'm hopeful that we'll pass 13 million.

 

[Brummiegem]

So far so good.
10.3% might sound like a lot,but with Jet2 gradually increasing their flights along with the other new services and increases around Easter,it might just be doable.Turkish using A321s on a lot of their flights recently will help.
Looking forward to another fantastic summer.

 

[IanFarquharson]

Makes the rolling 12 months ending 31.03.17 now 11,907,541 up 14.1%

So PK should be getting his 12,000,000 signs out sometime in April !

The increase of 8.9% is the lowest increase % wise since November 2015 but with Jet 2 now active the monthly figures should be 12-14% going forward.

A big ask but 14.42% in April would give us 1m this month.

I see 2017 coming in at 13.25m

Well done BHX !

Ian

 

[Butty]

Another good month with some many extra seats to come. Happy days.

Question is where are the 10%+ additional passengers coming from? Within the catchment? Captured from other airports? Or new visitors from overseas to the area? Or all of the above. The trajectory is sound at the moment.

 

[Kevin Farnell]

March Pax 2017

January - 775,176 (+16.1%)
February - 807,773 (+11.5%)
March - 904,790 (+8.9%)

Year to date total = 2,487,699
Year to date growth = +12.2%

Rolling 12 month total = 11,909,979 (+14.2%)

This is the slowest rate of growth for the airport in the last 18 months (which is an amazing feat) but still off to a strong start.

Worth remembering that Easter was in March last year, which could effect the comparisons.

Kevin

 

[JF57]

March Pax 2017

January - 775,176 (+16.1%)
February - 807,773 (+11.5%)
March - 904,790 (+8.9%)
April -
May -
June -
July -
August -
September -
October -
November -
December -

Year to date total = 2,487,699
Year to date growth = +12.2%

Rolling 12 month total = 11,909,979 (+14.2%)

Still pretty early days only on the 3rd month so pretty hard to read much into it, but applying the average rolling 12 months growth to our 2016 pax numbers, this gives us a 2017 projection of Circa 13,300,000 pax for 2017….

This is the slowest rate of growth for the airport in the last 18 months (which is an amazing feat) but still off to a strong start. Maybe the loss of AA is kicking in? However, we should still be on target to pass the 12,000,000 rolling Pax figure around April?!? I calculate we will need to see growth of 10.3% in April which hopefully should be achievable with easter?

Anyway, BHX press release here....
https://www.birminghamairport.co.uk...-to-spring-experienced-at-birmingham-airport/

Easter last year was in March so perhaps that is why growth March to March is not as good as it could have been. If this is a factor then the growth for April should be higher than average.

 

[IanFarquharson]

Another good month with some many extra seats to come. Happy days.

Question is where are the 10%+ additional passengers coming from? Within the catchment? Captured from other airports? Or new visitors from overseas to the area? Or all of the above. The trajectory is sound at the moment.

Yes incredible to think where all the pax are coming to when you bear in mind both MAN & LTN has higher % increases in March than BHX and on a higher total pax number, MAN has gained 2.7m in the past 12 months