Apologies if I came across rather harsh about 'getting excited' about slot applications, but I do feel some caution is appropriate in the case of Hainan.
Here are some stats now that we have just over a year's figures, based on the CAA reports.
This only shows total pax and average loads. Load factors are trickier as we have seen A333's (292 seats);
A332's (222 seats); B788's (213 seats) and the odd B789 I think (288 seats).
Month ---------- Pax total ------------ Average Load
Jun'16 - --- ----- 5,711 ------------- 238
July ----------- 9,232 -------------- 256
Aug ------------ 9,287 ------------- 258
Sep ------------ 8,669 ------------- 255
Oct ------------ 7,564 ------------- 210
Nov ------------ 6,627 ------------- 195
Dec ------------ 7,770 ------------- 216
Jan'17 ----------- 8,051 ------------- 237
Feb ------------- 6,711 ------------- 210
Mar ------------- 6,696 ------------- 186
Apr ------------- 6,750 ------------- 199
May ------------- 5,529 ------------- 154
June ------------- 7,190 ------------- 163
If there are daily flights in July/Aug, it will be interesting to see how total pax compare with that first summer. June this year saw the introduction of a 5th flight. A daily flight with a smaller a/c is preferable to a 4 x weekly flight with a larger a/c, but I was slightly surprised to see that April this year saw less pax than Oct. and only slightly more than Nov. while May had less pax than that first partial month of June'16 which only had 24 flights. Perhaps we need 2 full years to understand seasonal variations better.
Another factor as mentioned previously was the view of one person at TAS when the speaker was from the China Forum, that the speaker was less upbeat about HU's performance to-date than the TAS member had hoped and was expecting. The LF mentioned of 74% could be recent months or since start-up, but the point was also made that they could do with more Business Class pax.
I also wonder how much feeder traffic HU are getting from other regions, which may or may not be an issue if HU were to start flights to EDI and or DUB.
This is not to suggest in any way that the figures are disastrous, but perhaps indicate a pause for thought as regards how quickly further expansion may occur.
Here are some stats now that we have just over a year's figures, based on the CAA reports.
This only shows total pax and average loads. Load factors are trickier as we have seen A333's (292 seats);
A332's (222 seats); B788's (213 seats) and the odd B789 I think (288 seats).
Month ---------- Pax total ------------ Average Load
Jun'16 - --- ----- 5,711 ------------- 238
July ----------- 9,232 -------------- 256
Aug ------------ 9,287 ------------- 258
Sep ------------ 8,669 ------------- 255
Oct ------------ 7,564 ------------- 210
Nov ------------ 6,627 ------------- 195
Dec ------------ 7,770 ------------- 216
Jan'17 ----------- 8,051 ------------- 237
Feb ------------- 6,711 ------------- 210
Mar ------------- 6,696 ------------- 186
Apr ------------- 6,750 ------------- 199
May ------------- 5,529 ------------- 154
June ------------- 7,190 ------------- 163
If there are daily flights in July/Aug, it will be interesting to see how total pax compare with that first summer. June this year saw the introduction of a 5th flight. A daily flight with a smaller a/c is preferable to a 4 x weekly flight with a larger a/c, but I was slightly surprised to see that April this year saw less pax than Oct. and only slightly more than Nov. while May had less pax than that first partial month of June'16 which only had 24 flights. Perhaps we need 2 full years to understand seasonal variations better.
Another factor as mentioned previously was the view of one person at TAS when the speaker was from the China Forum, that the speaker was less upbeat about HU's performance to-date than the TAS member had hoped and was expecting. The LF mentioned of 74% could be recent months or since start-up, but the point was also made that they could do with more Business Class pax.
I also wonder how much feeder traffic HU are getting from other regions, which may or may not be an issue if HU were to start flights to EDI and or DUB.
This is not to suggest in any way that the figures are disastrous, but perhaps indicate a pause for thought as regards how quickly further expansion may occur.
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