Hainan Airlines

[Dobbo]

Agree - it seems silly to describe either as such - but in the western world this is a relatively niche airline flying a relatively niche route.

They have a relatively common cause (increased global profile) and I hope they can reach this together.

 

[ethanegcc]

Hainan Airlines' mainly operates niche long haul routes, like MAN-PEK, such as CDG-XIY, PRG-PEK, YYC-PEK, LAS-PEK and SJC-PEK.

 

[Philbky]

Heathrow will always be a magnet but, in the case of Hainan, the massive Chinrese resident and student populations of Greater Manchester and Merseyside form a solid core for the Manchester service. Freight will also feature both ways and Brexit adds to the potential as the UK seeks wider markets and the people seeking those markets who are based within the Manchester catchment area, or who want to connect without using Heathrow, will be looking at non EU connections if travel to and through Europe becomes more complex. Until such a time, China has not only opened up to tourism but there are now a number of cities where a 72 hour stop does not require a visa and there is talk of this being extended to seven days.

For longer stays there are many UK and China based tour operators which seem very London orientated for departures which need to channel business through Manchester.

Finally, what is a little concerning is that the 788 is a downgrading per flight from the A330 fleet. The 330-300 offers 32 business and 260 in economy, the -200 36 and 186 respectively whilst the 788 only offers 36 and 177 respectively.

 

[Dobbo]

Thought it would be the B789, or have I missed something?

 

[ethanegcc]

Heathrow will always be a magnet but, in the case of Hainan, the massive Chinrese resident and student populations of Greater Manchester and Merseyside form a solid core for the Manchester service. Freight will also feature both ways and Brexit adds to the potential as the UK seeks wider markets and the people seeking those markets who are based within the Manchester catchment area, or who want to connect without using Heathrow, will be looking at non EU connections if travel to and through Europe becomes more complex. Until such a time, China has not only opened up to tourism but there are now a number of cities where a 72 hour stop does not require a visa and there is talk of this being extended to seven days.

For longer stays there are many UK and China based tour operators which seem very London orientated for departures which need to channel business through Manchester.

Finally, what is a little concerning is that the 788 is a downgrading per flight from the A330 fleet. The 330-300 offers 32 business and 260 in economy, the -200 36 and 186 respectively whilst the 788 only offers 36 and 177 respectively.

Yes, but if the daily service goes ahead - I'm pretty sure it's an increase. We still can't rule out some ad-hoc 789 substitutions. Do you have any information about the daily service @Philbky

 

[ethanegcc]

Thought it would be the B789, or have I missed something?

AlphaFive shows it as a 788

 

[Philbky]

No details about daily. Whilst the increase in frequency per week is welcome, the growth in available seat is minimal.

 

[David_itl]

I'm moderately impressed that there's going to be the same size business cabin available everyday despite the A330 to 787 "downgrade". Wonder if that's a sign that the premium class uptake is holding up if the increase in economy passengers is going to be restricted?

 

[Philbky]

All Hainan current long haul aircraft offer 36 business seats.

 

[User001]

Who is to say that the B787 would be used on MAN-PEK specifically?

Anyway, here's the seats:

4 weekly A333 is 1168 seats each way per week.

7 weekly B788 is 1491 seats per week so a gain of 323 weekly seats but the added boost of daily GDS visibility so a higher rate of booking.

7 weekly B789 is 2016 seats a gain of 848 seats, so, a rather large boost indeed.

For completeness, a daily A333 would be 2044 seats each way per week, given its not certain a B787 will take over, it says they 'May' use them, that would also be a large seat increase.

 

[ethanegcc]

Who is to say that the B787 would be used on MAN-PEK specifically?

Anyway, here's the seats:

4 weekly A333 is 1168 seats each way per week.

7 weekly B788 is 1491 seats per week so a gain of 323 weekly seats but the added boost of daily GDS visibility so a higher rate of booking.

7 weekly B789 is 2016 seats a gain of 848 seats, so, a rather large boost indeed.

For completeness, a daily A333 would be 2044 seats each way per week, given its not certain a B787 will take over, it says they 'May' use them, that would also be a large seat increase.

When I contacted Hainan, they said that they would use the 787 when it came available which could be as early as May. Great comparison of the seats.

 

[Philbky]

Whoa. As far as it goes we have only a 5x service confirmed, equipment not confirmed. That means 1,460 seats each way on a 300 srs, 1,110 on a 200srs, 1,065 on a 788, 1,440 on a 789 which have 258 economy and 30 business seats, the reduction from 36 seats being due to their initial use on internal high density routes. Against the current 4 x 300srs offering 1,168 seats, a five day 788 rotation would show a reduction of 103 seats a week, a five day 200srs a gain of 58 seats a week, a five day 300srs a gain of 298 seats and a 789 shows a gain of 272 seats.

Logically an increase in frequency should mean an increase in seats but we don't have either load factors or yield on which to base an intelligent assessment of what may be planned. On the face of it, it may be that a downgrade to the 788 would be a cost effective move on which to build, given the extra overheads of operating on an extra day, with the option of upgrading on an ad hoc basis to larger equipment as loads dictate and to a permanent use of the 789 as loads build.

 

[User001]

We have the load factors from the CAA, so can use that part at least. Summer average was about 92% IIRC, winter between 78-84% but may be wrong, will need to revisit.

 

[Land23R]

Another aspect of this is the ultimate destination of UK originating pax and the initial departure point of China originating pax. Is the current operation effectively serving the whole of China with connecting flights, or primarily serving the Beijing region, and how does that impact on MAN's hopes of winning more China routes, notably PVG?

 

[Philbky]

Good point. Geographically Manchester has two well connected entry points to China in Beijing and Hong Kong, both of which have intense services to the whole of China. The really massive development is just across the border from Hong Kong, in the Shenzhen/Guangzhou area up through Xiamen to Shanghai. A service to Xiamen or Shanghai would probably be the ideal but may be overkill at present, and that is probably why Air China is holding off, moreso now with Cathay increasing its presence to Hong Kong.

 

[Aceshigh]

It's funny reading the debate how Manchester "seems" to have to try as hard as it possibly can compared to Heathrow which airlines "seem" more prepared to offer on a plate. And if they deploy an aircraft there clearly they cannot use it on say a Shanghai service.

It really must be a licence to print money.

 

[User001]

and that is probably why Air China is holding off,

As I've said, I have good reason from a very good source to believe there is another reason why we haven't heard anything off Air China, and I'm hoping this summer will reveal said reason.

 

[Land23R]

Might be worth reading Ray Finkle's post on Hainan world-wide regarding their route applications to the CAAC. Don't get too excited though - MAN isn't mentioned

 

[User001]

MAN wasn't mentioned when they started PEK either. For some reason license swaps rarely get published.

 

[Dobbo]

HU have certainly said all the right things about MAN and developing their business at MAN going forwards.

From this perspective it's a shame they might be distracted with LHR, but if they continue to increase their presence at MAN in spite of LHR that is a good feather in MAN's cap.

Use of the B787 is one positive, increased frequency to PEK is another, and the possibility of other routes (was it Xian?) shows the possibilities moving forwards. MAN seems to have a good thing going with HU, CX and SQ - hopefully these can continue to grow.