The Continuing Saga of Brexit...

[Ray Finkle]

I must admit.......I'm slightly tempted.

Romanians for Remainians: an 'adoption' offer for bewildered Brits

A daily newspaper in Bucharest has launched a “Romanians for Remanians” campaign, offering a new home to the 48% of Britons who voted to stay in the European Union.

The Gandul website tells Brits who believe in a united Europe to “leave the Brexiters, the quarrelling and the weather behind” and “start brand new life” in Romania.

It also calls on Romanians to volunteer to help “the good people who voted to remain and share European values deserve to be our relatives”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...doption-offer-for-bewildered-brits?CMP=twt_gu

 

[Ray Finkle]

It seems as if the First Minister of Scotland may have a crucial role to play in the timing of the EU exit.

Scotland’s First Minister conceded that she can dictate the timing of a British exit from the EU in an interview on BBC1’s The Andrew Marr Show.

Asked if she had a “veto in her back pocket” about when Britain leaves the EU, she replied: “I think we are in a very strong position. That is a position that I am going to use as well as I can.”

On Friday, Theresa May indicated that Brexit could be delayed as she said she would not start the formal process for leaving the EU until there is a "UK approach" backed by Scotland.


http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...europe/ar-BBur419?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=mailsignout

 

[Aviador]

What I find most annoying about it all *still* is the referendum question was simply...

"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?"

In any eventuality it is likely the government will seek to remain in Europe economically, this could mean there will have to be an element of free movement to enable the economic freedom the government seeks. Any such agreement is likely to come at a financial cost to the UK, again, something we didn't vote for.

We did not get a asked a question about immigration or our economic freedom yet the government is now trying to dictate what the vague referendum question actually meant in reality.

At no point did anybody vote to joining the EEA
At no point did anybody vote to join the EFTA
At no point did anybody vote specifically to reduce immigration levels

The whole referendum has a huge dark cloud over its validity so far I am concerned.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The fact that any trade deal with the EU would have to involve free movement was certainly pushed by the Remain camp in the weeks/months leading to the referendum. The snag is there was so much scare mongering, lies, half truths, innuendo by both sides that many people didn't know what to believe.

From trying to pick a way through the statements of both camps, and particularly listening to the views of 'independent' experts (but who was truly independent because almost certainly they would have sympathised either with Leave or with Remain privately?) I believed that a Leave vote (I didn't expect that would happen by the way) would lead to major economic uncertainty, and not just in the UK, falls in the value of the pound and stock market mayhem (thus far though the stock market has risen but there will be tantrums along the way without a doubt).

Looking at Norway as an example, I also thought that trade deals with the EU would very likely need to incorporate a degree of free movement.

Whether this message reached many Leave voters I don't know.

 

[Ray Finkle]

An interesting article suggesting that the UK may not actually leave the EU. I's based purely on the authors opinion but I think it's one that many are starting to share?

Leaving the EU is so difficult, and the consequences are so economically damaging, that it may be easier for prime minister Theresa May's government to endlessly delay the process rather than to actually leave.

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news...happen/ar-BBuBEpK?li=BBoPOOl&ocid=mailsignout

 

[Jerry]

An interesting article suggesting that the UK may not actually leave the EU. I's based purely on the authors opinion but I think it's one that many are starting to share?

Leaving the EU is so difficult, and the consequences are so economically damaging, that it may be easier for prime minister Theresa May's government to endlessly delay the process rather than to actually leave.

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news...happen/ar-BBuBEpK?li=BBoPOOl&ocid=mailsignout

Problem with delaying it is that there will be uncertainty and the EU won't like that. Personally i think a deal will be done which keeps free movement of labour for buisness and the bank passports but immigration will be controlled but we'll see what happens.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I see that some people are blaming the horrendous queues at Dover over the weekend on Brexit. They believe that the French authorities deliberately under-staffed their immigration desks in response to the Leave vote. I find that hard to accept as, apart from anything else, it wouldn't help the French tourism industry.

I suspect that it's more likely the result of the same type of bureaucratic thinking, or more accurately non-thinking, that sometimes sees UK airport Border Control desks under-staffed at busy times.

 

[Jerry]

I see that some people are blaming the horrendous queues at Dover over the weekend on Brexit. They believe that the French authorities deliberately under-staffed their immigration desks in response to the Leave vote. I find that hard to accept as, apart from anything else, it wouldn't help the French tourism industry.

I suspect that it's more likely the result of the same type of bureaucratic thinking, or more accurately non-thinking, that sometimes sees UK airport Border Control desks under-staffed at busy times.[

Just under-staffing. It was a knee jerk reaction especially as the lastest attackers originated in France. I also heard on the radio that people were trapped on the A20 for 24 hours or more. I think it will put people off going to or through France next again.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I read on the BBC tv text service today that GlaxoSmithKline is to invest £275 million to expand its UK manufacturing sites.

The pharmaceutical giant was a strong supporter of Remain in the EU Referendum and during the run-up suggested that if the UK left the EU there might well be a negative impact on the company's position in this country. It's now saying that the UK's skilled workforce and competitive tax system were two of the reasons for the decision to expand in the UK.

 

[Aviador]

Ford considers closing factories and raising prices in Europe in wake of Brexit

"Ford has warned it is considering closing factories and raising prices in the UK andEurope in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union."

"disappointing results on Thursday, the motor company forecast that the referendum decision could cost the company $1bn over the next two years."​

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...losing-factories-raising-prices-europe-brexit

 

[Aviador]

UK sees biggest fall in consumer confidence for 26 years after Brexit vote

"Growing worries about the economic outlook have dented the confidence of UK households and manufacturers, according to the latest reports to suggest the Brexit vote result will slow the economy."​

"A poll by market researchers GfK recorded the biggest slide in consumer confidence for more than 26 years in July. The group said people were on average gloomier about their own finances, the broader economy and whether now was a good time to make big purchases such as furniture and household appliances."​

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...mer-confidence-for-26-years-after-brexit-vote

 

[Aviador]

Who would have ever thought...?

Pound to Rupee Outlook Favour’s Eastern Currency if Pound Continues Falling From Brexit Weakness
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today

 

[Aviador]

Brexit is threatening to eradicate Britain's pension payouts
Britain's pension industry could find itself in difficulty because its key asset holdings – government bonds – have negative yields.

Pension funds, the money that is invested to make returns for workers and are then given out once they retire, are among the largest holders of UK government debt.

Read the full article: http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-economic-impact-britains-bonds-gilts-pensions-2016-8
​

I have been saying for year that I'll be working until I die, this pretty much just about confirms it.

 

[Aviador]

Brexit latest: Airports start exchanging less than one Euro for each Pound Sterling
Certain London airport bureaux de change are now returning less than €1 for each pound offered, underlining how the slide in the value of the sterling since the 23 June Brexit referedum vote is already hitting holidaymakers in the pocket.​

MoneyCorp at Stansted this week offered a rate of €0.9915 and ICE at Luton offered €0.990, according to Caxton FX.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...drop-airports-bureaux-de-change-a7196001.html​

These are the initial effects of the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. If the pound continues to perform so badly we WILL start to see prices in the shops rise. Prior to the referendum I reported that the UK imports around 40% of all it's food, most of which comes from the European Union. Food prices stand to rise significantly in the new year if the exchange rate continues to perform badly. Inevitably this will also impact the cost of holidays and flights.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

It also goes to show that the last place you ought to be changing money is at an airport exchange - we discussed this a few weeks ago in one of the airport threads. BBC Tv Business pages showing tourist exchange rates today of around 1.13 euros to the pound.

Part of the fall in the pound is due to the reduction in the B of E rate recently which might well be a reaction to the Brexit decision.

When we first started visiting Australia in 2010 the exchange rate was around 1.50 AUD to the GBP. It began to gradually improve in our favour until a year or so ago it had risen to 2.10 AUD to the GBP. It's currently around 1.70.

 

[Aviador]

Some huge marches against Brexit around the country today. So far very little coverage in the press.

 

[Aviador]

Japan's Unprecedented Warning To UK Over Brexit

Japan pulls no punches in a 15-page report, warning that companies may leave the UK if Brexit negotiations are unsatisfactory.

12:50, UK,Monday 05 September 2016

At the start of the G20 Summit, the Japanese government has taken the unprecedented step of warning of a series of corporate exits, "great turmoil" and harmful effects if Brexit leads to the loss of single market privileges.

Read more:http://news.sky.com/story/japans-unprecedented-warning-to-uk-over-brexit-10564585

 

[Aviador]

The CBI and other business groups have signed an open letter on the need for the Government to work with business as it negotiates the UK's exit from the EU.

Dear Sir,

The way in which we leave the EU and on what terms is of critical importance to jobs and investment in the UK. We respect the result of the referendum, but the Government must make sure that the terms of the deal to leave ensure stability, prosperity and improved living standards.

As business leaders we are clear what our priorities are in the upcoming negotiations.

First, the Government has committed to a bespoke arrangement. We believe this must deliver barrier free access to the EU's Single Market, which is vital to the health of the UK economy, especially to our manufacturing and service sectors. Uninterrupted access for our financial services sector is also a major priority. The sector employs thousands of people up and down the country and is critical to growth and job creation among small, medium and large British, and international businesses.

Second, leaving the EU without any preferential trade arrangement and defaulting to trading by standard World Trade Organisation rules would have significant costs for British exporters and importers, as well as those in their supply chains. 90% of UK goods trade with the EU would be subject to new tariffs. That would mean 20% in extra costs for our food and drink industry and 10% for our car producers. Every credible study that has been conducted has shown that this WTO option would do serious and lasting damage to the UK economy and those of our trading partners. The Government should give certainty to business by immediately ruling this option out under any circumstances.

Third, there is a wealth of evidence to suggest EU negotiations will not be completed within the Article 50 two-year timeframe. Many areas of regulation now up for discussion are highly complicated; whether in financial services, data protection regimes or the interconnection of energy supplies. The Government should therefore secure agreement of a transitional period, to ensure that businesses can continue to operate with no 'cliff edge' change to current circumstances until regulatory and legal changes can be implemented.

It’s vital that the on-the-ground expertise of British and international business is used to help get the best deal for the UK. The Government must set out a clear roadmap for consulting with firms of all sectors and sizes to increase confidence that these complex decisions are taken on the basis of fact and a genuine understanding of the economic implications.

The UK voted to leave the EU but not, as the Chancellor said, to cause living standards to decline. We want a Brexit that safeguards future prosperity for everyone across the UK.

Yours sincerely,

Carolyn Fairbairn, CBI (the Confederation of British Industry)

Terry Scuoler, EEF (the Manufacturers' Organisation)

Chris Southworth, ICC (the International Chamber of Commerce UK)

Julian David, techUK (the UK's technology trade association)

So with a plummeting pound add that to the additional costs world trade tariffs will bring following a so-called hard brexit the cost of the average food shop is set to increase by around 38%.

Already we have seen a number of airlines coming out saying their costs are rising substantially because of the Brexit vote. We are still in the EU at this moment in time. Things are likely to get far worse. Some "experts" are predicting a drop in the pound by as much as 20 to 30% following the triggering of article 50. A figure which will start to see some airlines going under during the continued period of uncertainty.

At what point do "leavers" realise this was all a big mistake?

Somebody on another forum recently pointed out that the NHS drugs bill is £15.5 billion. 40% of those are imported. So far the pound has fallen around 19% so from $1.50. the NHS has to find £1.178 billion more just for the drugs it uses right now.

Interesting and hard times ahead.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Have to admit I was hoping for the tightest possible Remain vote. I didn't want a big majority to stay in as I judge that would have weakened the UK's position in future negotiations within the EU.

The two campaigns have much to answer for with half truths and downright lies being peddled. Most 'ordinary' people didn't know what to believe. Former PM Cameron also made a catastrophic misjudgement in going ahead with the referendum. He would not have done so had he believed there was any chance of a 'Brexit' decision but thought he could sideline the many Conservative Euro-sceptics by pointing to a decisive Remain vote. Election manifesto pledges are ignored all the time by parties of all political colours when it suits them so Cameron could easily have found a reason not to have a referendum, despite promising one.

My wife and I were on a bus last week having a private conversation about taxation matters when a man in the seat in front (a 40-something) turned around, having obviously been ear wigging, and laid into us for ruining his future. He was clearly the worse for drink but reasonably coherent. The fact that we are obviously not in the first flush of youth convinced him that we were UKIP supporters and had voted for Brexit. After a while he decided we were Tories until I told him I was a Corbyn supporter (I'm not). He couldn't afford to buy a house, ergo it was everyone else's fault and particularly the elderly all of whom had voted to leave the EU. He became extremely abusive to us and to others on the bus.

I pointed out that Bristol as a city had voted substantially to Remain (two thirds or more) but some working class wards had voted 80% to Leave, and they weren't populated entirely by the over 60s, whilst other well-off wards that did have a significant population of elderly mainly retired folk had voted overwhelmingly to Remain.

That was too much and led to everyone over twenty on the upstairs deck being labelled 'f***ing racist pigs' - presumably because he had convinced himself we had all voted to Leave because we didn't like Johhny Foreigner.

It made the journey interesting. It was a good job Donald Trump's man hadn't by then announced the UK would be at the front of a Trump administration's queue for a trade agreement. Said 40-something would probably have accused us all of being descendants of slave owners.

So Brexit does rouse passions and give rise to some interesting bus journeys.

 

[Aviador]

There is no question that Brexit has raised some ugly faces during and after the campaign.

I just want my old UK back. It wasn't perfect, it had it's problems but it was a nicer place than it feels like it is at the moment.