The Continuing Saga of Brexit...

[Ray Finkle]

 

[David_itl]

Going slightly tangential to this topic, something's just struck me about the remaining 27 states in the EU. Now that we are apparently "out", it does mean that there's going to be a nice £13 billion (£18 billion if we disregard the rebate) shortfall in "subs" for the EU. I can well imagine the unconfined joy on the streets of a few European cities when it's explained to them that the thing they were going to have built using central funds from there government will now not go ahead as it's needed to maintain the EU funding for projects. I wonder how much reaction that would generate as there's already a ground swelling of disaffection within the EU that the politicians seem oblivious to. Could be the end of the EU as we know it with no more "poorer" nations being allowed to join.

 

[Ray Finkle]

This mornings BBC Breakfast had an interview with a woman (I didn't catch where she was from) in which she stated that the UK had always been an 'irritating' member of the EU and that the organisation would now forge ahead 'unhindered'. I can't work out whether there are some seriously sour grapes across Europe or whether they are genuinely glad to see the back of us?

One thing that I find very odd is that despite their 'triumph' we've seen/heard very little from the likes of Boris, Gove, Farrage etc. I expected them to be all over the media gloating.

Maybe there are too many difficult questions to which they don't yet have the answers?

 

[David_itl]

I wouldn't be at all surprised that Gove and Johnson were for Leave on the basis of giving a kick up the backside to the EU with a sizeable portion of the country wanting out - something like 40% to 45% so the the EU leaders would then see the deep concerns about the general state of the EU. Not for one moment do I expect they had some kind of back-up policy in case the Leave vote exceeded 50% which is why there's a deafening silence from them. Consequently what Cameron did in announcing his quit decision has made life very uncomfortable for them as logic tells you that the only people that should be negotiating with the EU regarding the terms and conditions of the exit are those who proposed it, and when those at the forefront of the Leave campaign may well be wanting to be part of a reformed EU rather than out of the EU, you could see the EU negotiators playing hard ball. Farage was practically in charge of a one trick pony party i.e. UK out of the EU so he is the most jubilant but even he knows that what they said before the referendum is undeliverable so he is keeping schtum as well.

In the meantime, the Labour party in now imploding- Benn sacked, up to half a dozen shadow cabinets ministers expected to resign and the Parliamentary Labour Party having submitted a vote of no confidence in Corbyn.

 

[Ray Finkle]

I wouldn't be at all surprised that Gove and Johnson were for Leave on the basis of giving a kick up the backside to the EU with a sizeable portion of the country wanting out

I've been thinking the same thing.

I see Ivan Lewis is now calling for Corbyn to resign.

What a mess

 

[Brum X]

Look on the bright side girls,,,, if the east Europeans don't fly into your airport anymore,,,, then maybe countries with cash to invest may see the uk as a good investment. That could be the Chinese , I thought that was just what you always wanted,,,, and maybe the British aren't as racist as you think,,,, they just want to run their own country, I don't see anything wrong in that ,,,, up the revolution ,,, lol

I was very much a man the last time i looked, very much so
However it was probably a bunch of girls who have got some part to play in this mess, our very own Brummie MP Giesla Stuart.

 

[David_itl]

"The Leave campaign said that the UK could save £350m per week in payments to the EU, which could go to the NHS instead.

Leave campaigner Liam Fox tells the Sunday Politics the figure is a "net £10bn" a year - around £160m per week - but that is "only available once we've left the European Union".

The Conservative MP adds that any decision to spend more on the NHS "has to be taken by the government of the day". People weren't voting in an election for a programme for government but instead to give future governments more "freedom".

Surely this should be more than enough to justify another referendum if a blatent lie has been propagated by one side.

 

[Aviador]

From my understanding of things it is still possible to block the referendum so long as no formal letter is sent to Brussels. Basically my school of thought is if there was a vote of no confidence in the government this could force a general election. You would have UKIP on one side and pro remain parties on the other. The remain could make EU reform part of their election pledge. People vote for remain on the basis of EU reform.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

From my understanding of things it is still possible to block the referendum so long as no formal letter is sent to Brussels. Basically my school of thought is if there was a vote of no confidence in the government this could force a general election. You would have UKIP on one side and pro remain parties on the other. The remain could make EU reform part of their election pledge. People vote for remain on the basis of EU reform.

That seems to be the case according to the legal and constitutional experts I have read and listened to on the telly in the past day or so.

The realities of politics apparently dictate that the current Conservative government could not, for political reasons, ignore the referendum result which, as has been said previously, is not legally binding but the government that sponsored the referendum would be politically dead if they went against it.

However, were there to be a very early general election and a new government elected on a 'ticket' (sorry about an Americanism, I usually try to avoid them) that they would not leave the EU it might be politically possible for them to ignore the referendum result, on the basis that the country had approved their mandate by voting them in and the referendum was not theirs anyway.

It seems though that this would only be possible if the previous government had not already activated Article 50, the mechanism that unlocks the procedure for any state wishing to leave the EU.

I would suspect that such a government would have to be Labour (no other party other than the Conservatives would be likely to gain power on its own) or a coalition involving Labour, Lib-Dems and probably the Scottish Nationalists and Plaid Cymru, or some of these. Given that the Conservatives sponsored the referendum, even though many of their MPs are pro-EU, that party might find it difficult to return to power after a general election albeit in the guise of new leaders and ignore the referendum result.

This is undoubtedly one of the major reasons why many in the Labour Party want to be rid of Corbyn as they suspect, probably correctly, that a Corbyn-led Labour Party remains unelectable.

The important thing is that there is no timescale for activating Article 50 but once activated there is a procedure that must be followed and time then would be of the essence. I'm assuming that whilst Cameron remains PM he will be in no hurry to activate Article 50.

 

[Ray Finkle]

This is from the Guardian's comments section and seems to be doing the rounds at the moment.

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

 

[Aviador]

No feeling of elation there.

I don't feel this is a case of poor losers, this is far bigger.

 

[Brum X]

Special Question time about the referendum from our lovely Town Hall in Birmingham now on BBC1

 

[Aviador]

EU sources say UK can delay Art 50 as it faces "very significant" crisis with lack of government and break up of UK

One of my pre referendum posts warned of what was likely to happen post referendum and sadly, it seems to be following that course pretty accurately.

Looking at social media there have been some ugly scenes throughout the country today with European and non European people being told to "go home" by various extremist groups who feel it is now acceptable to treat people this way because we "voted out".

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...uk_576fe161e4b08d2c56396075?745i5vqfvfs35l8fr

I half expect to see some form of "state of emergency" over the course of the next few days. Very serious times ahead indeed.

 

[Aviador]

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...gar-square-in-stand-with-europe-a3280666.html

 

[Ray Finkle]

Looking at social media there have been some ugly scenes throughout the country today

Sadly some of that happened only a few streets away from me. I'm sure people have seen the video

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...gar-square-in-stand-with-europe-a3280666.html

I think this just about sums it up.

“I don’t believe the Leave vote is a racist decision by the people. I don’t believe the Leave vote is an evil decision.

“When you have a government imposing austerity with severe cuts, directly hitting the most disadvantaged in society - those who will have the most trouble recovering - people get angry.

“They want somewhere to point the anger, and the referendum was an easy scapegoat. A way to take back control - finally - a way to stick it to the man.

“The biggest political disaster in recent history - yes - but still a scapegoat for a society’s anger.

 

[Brum X]

I really hope this does not matter, but im expecting trouble on the streets in the next few weeks if things dont calm down.

 

[Aviador]

Whatever happens, the concerns of Brexiters need to be answered even if for some reason we end up not leaving the EU. The referendum was a silly idea. People had genuine concerns that can't be answered with an in or out answer.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Does this really come as a surprise to anyone?

Faisal Islam, Sky News Journalist, Says Pro-Brexit MP Told Him ‘Leave Campaign Don’t Have A Plan’

 

[David_itl]

The referendum was a silly idea

It's one of those things that was stuck in the Conservative manifesto. Where they went wrong is that they ought to have stated that the UK remained within the EU unless the total number of votes for Leave achieved 50% +1 of the number of eligible votes. On something as fundamental as this issue it really did have to be the majority of people wanting out, not as it turned out 51.9% of the 72% who voted wanting out. On that basis, the braindead who wanted to stick 2 fingers up at the government as a protest without realising the consequences would not have had an impact on the decision.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

There seems little doubt that a number of people did vote Leave as a sort of protest, although whether against the UK government or the EU or both is difficult to be certain. Perhaps some weren't sure themselves.

On the other hand some people who I certainly would not describe as brain dead were voluble in their support for Brexit: Lord Digby Jones, James Dyson (the vacuum cleaner man) and Peter Hargreaves (joint founder of Hargreaves Lansdown plc, now a FTSE 100 company) for starters. The last two are billionaires; I'm not sure about the first.