Route Development & Rumours

[BHXsupporter]

Does anyone remember possible desires for JetBlue to use A321neos and the possibility of BHX? Well it's only Heathrow that would stimulate their venture acoss the pond:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/airport-slots-key-to-jetblues-europe-plans-ceo-453697/

 

[nbdm]

Does anyone remember possible desires for JetBlue to use A321neos and the possibility of BHX? Well it's only Heathrow that would stimulate their venture acoss the pond:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/airport-slots-key-to-jetblues-europe-plans-ceo-453697/

I'm not surprised they'd start with London, they've stated before that they want to disrupt the business fares between NYC and LON like they did between the east and west coast of the US. And of course we all know there is a tried and tested market with seemingly endless demand there.

We can all but hope they decide to expand northwards in the future

 

[Ianbutty]

New York to London Heathrow. It would be a boost if such an under served route was their first foray. The BHX team should offer them the most preferable terms they can without breaching competition rules. That's what other airports do.

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there Ianbutty, I fully agree with what you say about any potential new airlines wanting to come to birmingham airport, but the problem and issues are always the same, bhx management offering a deal for just over 12 plus months, then wack the price up to normal standard, then you get the usual announcement that they are pulling out, due to falling demand. Because bhx management have got it into the heads that they think that birmingham airport is a large regional airport, when it's not : premier regional airport, when birmingham airport isn't, but only a medium sized airport, that's why they charge more than they should. And until the management wake up and stop dreaming as they are, then birmingham airport will never have the growth that it should, but will only ever pick up the crumbs after all the best bits have gone, and until bhx changes their ways, it will stay the same... AndyC

 

[Ray Finkle]

Birmingham to Hong Kong is the Skyscanner unserved route of the week.

There are some snippets below but it's an interesting read.

https://www.anna.aero/2018/12/04/birmingham-to-hong-kong-is-skyscanners-unserved-route-of-the-week/

Data from Skyscanner shows that during the past 12 months (November 2017 to October 2018), some 190,000+ people have searched for a direct flight between the two cities.

Overall though, the average number of searches for this route per month is 16,096. If this was looked at in terms of potential passenger numbers, it could result in an average annual PDEW figure of 264 people.

Along with this data from Skyscanner, anna.aero’s analysis of OAG Traffic Analyser data reveals that Birmingham is currently the sixth largest unserved market from Hong Kong, with some 38,000 passengers travelling via the two airports between July 2017 and June 2018.

This also makes Hong Kong the second largest unserved market from Birmingham in the world, after Bangkok, a previous Unserved Route of the Week.

Given that Birmingham sees 78,000 passengers annually leak from its core catchment for a direct flight to Hong Kong, and that 38,000 additional passengers take an indirect flight from the UK’s second city to the Asian hub, a direct service would currently cater for a market of 116,000 annual passengers, not taking into account a market stimulation factor if a direct flight was introduced.

if a carrier was to introduce a direct flight between Birmingham and Hong Kong, it could see a 34% increase in ticket sales without increased marketing.

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there Ray and all, I totally agree with you about Hong-Kong unserved route, but the route development team would have a massive job in trying to persuade Cathy Pacific or Hong-Kong airlines to start up routes from beto Hong-Kong, if they did, it would be a massive and great coup for the airport, but then they would have to give them a deal to keep them at the airport... AndyC

 

[JENNYJET]

The usual problem comes to mind, it will have to compete with London and Manchester for revenue traffic. As a city pair they may use a A350 but if it were possible I would like to see a routing of HK - BHX - US/CANADA with a 777. Well..it is wishful thinking and crimbo is coming!!

 

[Coathanger16]

Birmingham to Hong Kong is the Skyscanner unserved route of the week.

There are some snippets below but it's an interesting read.

https://www.anna.aero/2018/12/04/birmingham-to-hong-kong-is-skyscanners-unserved-route-of-the-week/

Data from Skyscanner shows that during the past 12 months (November 2017 to October 2018), some 190,000+ people have searched for a direct flight between the two cities.

Overall though, the average number of searches for this route per month is 16,096. If this was looked at in terms of potential passenger numbers, it could result in an average annual PDEW figure of 264 people.

Along with this data from Skyscanner, anna.aero’s analysis of OAG Traffic Analyser data reveals that Birmingham is currently the sixth largest unserved market from Hong Kong, with some 38,000 passengers travelling via the two airports between July 2017 and June 2018.

This also makes Hong Kong the second largest unserved market from Birmingham in the world, after Bangkok, a previous Unserved Route of the Week.

Given that Birmingham sees 78,000 passengers annually leak from its core catchment for a direct flight to Hong Kong, and that 38,000 additional passengers take an indirect flight from the UK’s second city to the Asian hub, a direct service would currently cater for a market of 116,000 annual passengers, not taking into account a market stimulation factor if a direct flight was introduced.

if a carrier was to introduce a direct flight between Birmingham and Hong Kong, it could see a 34% increase in ticket sales without increased marketing.

Thought this quote was also interesting:

Commenting on the reason to support a direct service between Birmingham and Hong Kong, Tom Screen, Acting Aviation Director, Birmingham Airport, stated: “The Birmingham-Hong Kong route is key to our aspirations, not just as an airport, but as a region. HSBC have recently moved their UK head offices to Birmingham and they have engaged with us regarding a direct service already.

 

[Ray Finkle]

The Birmingham-Hong Kong route is key to our aspirations, not just as an airport, but as a region. HSBC have recently moved their UK head offices to Birmingham and they have engaged with us regarding a direct service already.

Good spot, I missed that.

We know that talks have been held with Cathay with Tom Screen confirming as much in recent interviews. Rumours were that initial discussions were about a potential start some time around 2020 or 2021, over to the RD team now to make it happen.

 

[GliderPilot]

Would be fantastic to see, but I feel like this discussion has been round a thousand times, so i'll believe it when i see it

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there Gliderpilot, I agree what you say, it depends on what the airport will offer either Cathy Pacific or Hong Kong airlines to start the route and see what the demand is... AndyC

 

[Ray Finkle]

I think we need to bear in mind that route development can take a very long time, especially when it comes to long haul.

Paul Kehoe once said it took 5 years of talks with Air India before they made a return to BHX. I've seen it suggested that MAN were talking to Cathay for an even longer period before they returned there.

It seems that patience will be needed.

 

[58terminus]

I think we need to bear in mind that route development can take a very long time, especially when it comes to long haul.

Paul Kehoe once said it took 5 years of talks with Air India before they made a return to BHX. I've seen it suggested that MAN were talking to Cathay for an even longer period before they returned there.

It seems that patience will be needed.

Do not really understand the long negotiations thing.. If the market is there and terms can be agreed why the talk of 3/5 years or whatever?.
God knows what might happen in that time.Look at the last few years.
The cynic in me thinks that the long negotiations thing is a bit of spin by the airports to justify their presence at trade shows around the world where a visit to their stand by an airline rep for a free drink is classed as negotiation. We all know how successful this has been for BHX
If there is money to be made the airlines will come but it has to be a genuine increase in revenue and not robbing Peter to pay Paul.
I fear BHX has fallen too far behind. Love to be proved wrong.

 

[mullion]

Many of these long haul desernationas can take many years to come to fruition because they are so
complicated

 

[IanFarquharson]

BHX have been talking to Finnair for best part of 20 years - I kid you not !

 

[IanFarquharson]

We may hear something soon on the route development front - I don't mean Finnair !

 

[jfy1999]

20 questions time on that one I suppose

 

[58terminus]

20 questions time on that one I suppose

Sorry jfy1999 but i don.t think people have the enthusiasm to bother at the moment.

 

[Brum X]

Sorry jfy1999 but i don.t think people have the enthusiasm to bother at the moment.

I do try and be enthusiastic but as you say 58 it is really hard atm. Plus there is NO NEWS pretty much anywhere, even at the big hitters.

I dont feel 2019 will bring anything im afraid, apart from us holding onto what we have which i suppose will be something. Sorry to keep bringing it up but until everbody knows where we are regarding Brexit, nothing is going to happen.

 

[Kevin Farnell]

Do not really understand the long negotiations thing.. If the market is there and terms can be agreed why the talk of 3/5 years or whatever?.

I think we have to look further into the logistics of an airline starting up a new route.
Whilst negotiations with an airport are an important step, that is not the end of the matter.
Airlines simply don't have aircraft and crew sitting about waiting for a new route to be started in order to use these resources.
So, for a new route to be launched, either new aircraft and crew have to be obtained or a current route has to be culled. Therefore the potential of a new route has to be costed against poorest performing current routes, or the cost of purchasing new aircraft and recruting and training new staff.
Is it worth buying one new aircraft (including crewing costs), or do you wait until you have several desirable new routes, when you can negotiate a better deal by purchasing several new aircraft?
Along with all of the above, an airline will be constantly reviewing costs and trying to negotiate the cheapest deal from an airport.
I don't work in aviation, so the above are only my thoughts.

Kevin