User001
New Member
- Jul 16, 2015
- 0
- 0
i think one issue BHX, and any airport to be frank, is to contend with, is that I personally think the MEB3 juggernaut hit is starting to slow down.
Let me explain.
1) The MEB3 work primarily due to connections. Routes like the UK ones grow because with more connection opportunities, more pax come. The MEB3 are now starting to run out of realistic connection opportunities going east. This means at some point, the phenomenal and rapid growth will inevitably slow down.
2) competing with each other. I've noticed that the MEB3 are now starting to struggle keeping up with each other. As each carrier increases frequencies. The other one either tries to match it, or suffer. Again, there is only going to be X number of pax, and if you offer Y number of seats, they will struggle to get filled.
We have seen Etihad have to reduce Dublin, Edinburgh and Dallas. Emirates initially reduced Seattle, Qatar pulled LGW and so on. It shows that eventually a tipping point will be found.
3) don't underestimate the effect of Turkish.
Emirates, Qatar and Etihad have done well, because they send the volume in. The big shiny jets to the desert. That in itself is an issue, as that's a lot of seats to fill, and, there are some points those big B777's and A330's can't go.
Turkish not only has the good hub location, but, it has the smaller jets capable of going to more places. This means not only can it go to places like Bristol, Cardiff and Belfast, away from the MEB3 and bypass their competitiveness, but, it means they can also capacity match.
Take MAN. One minute TK can use an A320 if the loads are light, but then they can, and often do, use the A330 for heavy loads. The MEB3 can't really do that. This increases their profitability, it means they can operate higher frequencies to spread the loads and offer more attractive flights and they can expand into routes the MEB3 can't. I really do think the MEB3 will soon start suffering due to TK.
4) direct flights.
People are starting to fork out for a direct flight option, and, in terms of the Far Eastern carriers, it's only a matter of time before they fight back in a big way.
I'm already hearing that a lot of people 'can't be bothered with that changing in Dubai mullarkey',and choosing more direct flights. My father in law has previously been a staunch EK user going to China, and was a gold card holder. He has now switched to Cathay Pacific as it's less travel time, and he says the service is superior.
We are already seeing Cathay Pacific fight back in a big way, launching MAN/ZRH/DUS and MAD, with rumours of TLV and LGW to follow. The Chinese carriers are expanding into Europe with random second tier cities of China, and, it will only be a matter of time before the UK govt see the cash piles Europe are seeing and abolish the bilaterals and have open skies.
So, what do you all think?
Let me explain.
1) The MEB3 work primarily due to connections. Routes like the UK ones grow because with more connection opportunities, more pax come. The MEB3 are now starting to run out of realistic connection opportunities going east. This means at some point, the phenomenal and rapid growth will inevitably slow down.
2) competing with each other. I've noticed that the MEB3 are now starting to struggle keeping up with each other. As each carrier increases frequencies. The other one either tries to match it, or suffer. Again, there is only going to be X number of pax, and if you offer Y number of seats, they will struggle to get filled.
We have seen Etihad have to reduce Dublin, Edinburgh and Dallas. Emirates initially reduced Seattle, Qatar pulled LGW and so on. It shows that eventually a tipping point will be found.
3) don't underestimate the effect of Turkish.
Emirates, Qatar and Etihad have done well, because they send the volume in. The big shiny jets to the desert. That in itself is an issue, as that's a lot of seats to fill, and, there are some points those big B777's and A330's can't go.
Turkish not only has the good hub location, but, it has the smaller jets capable of going to more places. This means not only can it go to places like Bristol, Cardiff and Belfast, away from the MEB3 and bypass their competitiveness, but, it means they can also capacity match.
Take MAN. One minute TK can use an A320 if the loads are light, but then they can, and often do, use the A330 for heavy loads. The MEB3 can't really do that. This increases their profitability, it means they can operate higher frequencies to spread the loads and offer more attractive flights and they can expand into routes the MEB3 can't. I really do think the MEB3 will soon start suffering due to TK.
4) direct flights.
People are starting to fork out for a direct flight option, and, in terms of the Far Eastern carriers, it's only a matter of time before they fight back in a big way.
I'm already hearing that a lot of people 'can't be bothered with that changing in Dubai mullarkey',and choosing more direct flights. My father in law has previously been a staunch EK user going to China, and was a gold card holder. He has now switched to Cathay Pacific as it's less travel time, and he says the service is superior.
We are already seeing Cathay Pacific fight back in a big way, launching MAN/ZRH/DUS and MAD, with rumours of TLV and LGW to follow. The Chinese carriers are expanding into Europe with random second tier cities of China, and, it will only be a matter of time before the UK govt see the cash piles Europe are seeing and abolish the bilaterals and have open skies.
So, what do you all think?
