Route Development & Rumours

[User001]

I don't think Rouge is possible as I think they have some agreement with the Unions which limits aircraft/destination expansion on a year by year basis, to which they now have reached their limit for 2016.

In terms of Westjet, they say their focus in the UK for new routes in 2016 will be around Gatwick only. Obviously we cannot take that as gospel, but, with 5-6 new routes to fill from London with B767's, it's likely to be the case that in this instance, they could be true to their word and focus on LGW only (as well as the existing GLA).

In terms of potential airlines, here's my list:

Wow air. Expqnding into the USA as a transfer hub. BHX has been good at expanding the 'out there' airlines like Blue Air and Wizz. Fits the portfolio.

Smart wings. CSA low cost affiliate. Prague is a big gap in the BHX network, fits the model well.

Adria. No strangers to BHX from random charter flights. Slovenia is picking up again as a tourist destination. Willing to try Southend to Maribor, can't see why BHX-LJU is a no go?

Belavia. Obviously a very niche carrier, serves the Chernoble survivors and fosters market. Has run a 1 weekly flight for years at MAN successfully. Will Pearson posted a photo of him traveling to Minsk a few months ago. Route launches take months to come to light, could finally have got the green light?

Pegasus. Serve routes like Manchester-Dalaman on a scheduled basis, are not afraid to go up against Turkish in serving Istanbul either. Last year said they were looking at LBA/LPL/MAN-SAW but never happened, so, could BHX have swooped in with a deal. 12 weekly Turkish is an easier prospect to fight instead of a 3 daily Turkish at Manchester? Like I say, BHX-DLM is entirely possible.

Other 'out there' routes that are ripe for the picking. Air Serbia, Finnair, Atlantic Airlines of the Faroe Islands, Alitalia and TAROM.

I don't believe TAP will come based on info garnered from quite a high up source at MAN.

 

[thunderchild]

While I don't dispute what you've been told about TAP I recall you were told the same thing about Vueling adding new routes from BHX next year.

Given the fact BHX isn't the oneworld no go zone it used to be I'd hope for Finnair - they've announced a few new long haul routes to Asia so a bit of extra feed wouldn't hurt. Have they already announced there 2016 routes though? I know EDI has been announced.

I think TAROM can be ruled out - 0 to 3 to Bucharest? Bloodbath!

 

[jfy1999]

I'd hope for Finnair but if Smart Wings are the 10th airline I think we'd all love it, flights to Prague at last!

Today is the first day of Eurowings operations. They are still using the CRJs although the timings have changed.

Hamburg is a mid-morning arrival as EW4332.

The afternoon arrival from Düsseldorf is EW1334 and there's another flight from Düsseldorf late this evening (EW1338).

I hope they're not the tenth airline!!

 

[Brum X]

Yeah it is quite exciting when an announcement is due anytime, i was really sad last night as i didnt have anything to do and was flying from Hong Kong to Paris CDG in my Cathay Pacific A340-600 (FSX) i think i trawled every airline website to see if BHX had appeared on the drop down list that wasnt there before but couldnt find anything.

I went on Finnair, TAP, Qatar (BHX is shown but via Brussels), and CSA Czech airlines.

 

[richard winterbourn]

With respect User001, i also don't attach too much credence to your comment re TAP.

I will focus on the fact that South America is a growing market and that trade between the UK and countries such as Brazil will continue to increase. For those travelling in that direction, journey time from Lisbon as against Paris or Amsterdam is significantly less and far more appealing. I know, i travel the route regularly and know how many use Euro hubs to get to Brazil.

But while that in itself is not sufficient to attract TAP to BHX, i think other links to Africa through Lisbon as the hub, and those who want to visit Portugal either on business or leisure would be sufficient for the airline to make a go of it. And ultimately, a thrivng route.

On the downside i can accept that being already double-daily to MAN might weight against BHX, but logic tells me it is a link that will come before too long. After all, three-daily to MAN has not stopped Emirates now providing three-daily to BHX.

 

[User001]

Thunderchild,

I understand your comment about Vueling, however, Vueling have changed their strategy numerous times since I last had a face to face meeting with them, so, that is a separate matter to TAP. The information was 'not the same' and from 2 different sources completely.

In terms of TAP,, and I'm willing to be proven wrong as I don't know we how true it is, but apparently TAP have been left with a sour taste in the mouth due to the divert fiasco a few years ago.

In a press article, I forget where it featured now, someone at MAG was questioned why they were so quick to refuse diverts in winter.
His reply was that business continuity is important, protecting the scheduled flying programme, but also, it's easy to 'cash in' on diverts but once you accept a divert, you then commit to providing the same high level of service to that divert as a scheduled flight.

The 3 examples he used were:

Getting it right: when Manchester accepted a Kenyan B772 and B737 a few years ago, Kenyan were so impressed with how the diverts were handled, that they switched their narrow body fuel point from LHR to MAN.

Getting it wrong: Manchester accepting a KLM MD11 divert and not having the adequate staff levels to process the divert in a timely manner means that KLM now don't use MAN as a wide body divert point unless in an emergency. In situations where they have several options for a divert station, KLM will not use MAN.

His second getting it wrong example was TAP diverting to BHX back when the runway was being done. Due to the night closures, aircraft scrambled to get out, but, due to a short delay of less than 10 minutes, the TAP then had to overnight as they were told they could not go due to runway works. Since then, relations between TAP and BHX have been a littl frosty, so, while you can never say never, apparently BHX has more work to do than other points in proving itself.

Now, you can call bollocks to that all you like, but, I have no reason to question if he made it all up given Kenyan did stage several more aircraft on delivery through Manchester, we have seen 3 potential KLM diverts overfly MAN to get to places like DUB/GLA or back to AMS, and we have seen TAP have huge expansion in the past few years but not even a slight rumour of BHX.

I suppose if number 10 is TAP, then it either means the story was tosh and I apologise, or, the frosty relationship has thawed, I suppose we will never know the truth,

 

[Ray Finkle]

I was listening that night and every aircraft that diverted in was made aware that the runway would be closed at 11pm sharp and given the choice to go elsewhere. Every pilot replied back that they fully understood. The TAP aircraft and an Oman Air aircraft were regularly reminded by ATC of the closure and all pilots replied that they understood.

Oman Air managed to get out on time but the TAP pilot kept replying 'we'll be ready soon'. ATC constantly kept informing them that they needed to push back before 11pm and as long as they did the runway wouldn't close until after their departure, they just kept saying we'll be ready soon. Again ATC told them that they needed to push back now and even went so far as to say they could issue their clearance whilst on the taxi, again they told them that as long as they pushed back before 11pm they could then take as long as they like after that and the runway wouldn't close until they left. Again TAP replied we'll be ready soon and inevitably they ran out of time.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Many thanks to Brum X for his post, it's very good of Mr K to take the time to reply.

He confirms what we all suspected about Easyjet being happy that their other bases cover our region, although I have no specific details I hear that EMA performed very poorly for them, it's a shame because BHX is a totally different prospect. If we can secure a Norwegian base and get continued growth from Wizz then it's just as good, if not better.

So it appears as if we're due another announcement this week. There's been interesting speculation although I think some would be more welcome than others. I think I may have narrowed it down to a choice of two but I could be completely off, BHX announcements do tend to have a habit of coming completely out of the blue, we'll see for sure this week :smile:

 

[User001]

Just for the record as well, I wasn't saying there were not 2 sides to the TAP story, just that somewhere along the line something seems to have gone astray.

 

[Brum X]

Go on, whats your two ??????



Mine is going to be CSA or a middle eastern/gulf carrier (anything from Turkey to Saudi Arabia) but dunno which one, LOL

 

[thunderchild]

We can rule out Air Asia X aswell then - another diversion fiasco story ready and waiting to be dragged up there!

 

[User001]

Oh come on Thunderchild, it's an airport it's hardly personal.

 

[Ray Finkle]

We can rule out Air Asia X aswell then - another diversion fiasco story ready and waiting to be dragged up there!

Go on, whats your two ??????



Mine is going to be CSA or a middle eastern/gulf carrier (anything from Turkey to Saudi Arabia) but dunno which one, LOL

Same as you mate, if it's short haul I reckon Czech or Smart Wings to Prague, if it's long haul I reckon either Qatar or Saudi.

There's plenty of potentials, Austrian, Finnair, TAP, Belavia who have been spoken too. We also had the one or two Middle Eastern airlines quote but that may not be until next year.

I think the rumours at BHX seem to never come to fruition (Qatar is still rumoured) but announcements seem to come out of nowhere. Air Blue, Vueling, Iberia, Icelandair, American, Norwegian, Wizz all came as a surprise, I didn't hear or see any of those rumoured anywhere.

 

[IanFarquharson]

If the airline had slipped PK's mind then it wont be Qatar !

My money is on Billund with Sun Air

 

[jfy1999]

If the airline had slipped PK's mind then it wont be Qatar !

My money is on Billund with Sun Air

Not sure myself, they seem to be investing heavily in Cambridge at this moment in time.

http://www.traveldailymedia.com/227740/ ... nnections/

But who knows, maybe their success there might breed interest in starting flights to Birmingham.

 

[User001]

It's Qatar Airways 8 weekly from 30 March.

 

[IanFarquharson]

If the airline had slipped PK's mind then it wont be Qatar !

My money is on Billund with Sun Air

Well I don't like being wrong but on this occasion I will make an exception !

And 8 weekly - fantastic new

Ian

 

[nwoody2001]

I recon PK was just teasing us....

in other news, as if Qatar wasn't enough for a Monday morning, anyone seen the FT.com today????

Canada’s WestJet eyes low-cost transatlantic market

Gregg Saretsky, chief executive, has told the Financial Times that the airline is in talks with other airports in Europe about additional services — flying from cities such as Paris, Amsterdam and Rome, but also considering UK destinations, including Manchester and Birmingham.

Full storey: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d978c7d8-6ea8 ... z3pgNDWUSf

 

[jfy1999]

Wonder what Air Transat will think of that? If Westjet do make a move it'll surely show us once and for all whether TS are willing to expand in any sort of way from Birmingham.

As for Qatar, they've obviously decided to go for it before Emirates can make their next move...now it remains to be seen what Emirates will do! We'll have had a massive increase in ME traffic in a very short time, will there still be enough demand for an A380?

And what will Etihad do? Will they sheer off for good or, considering that they do have flights to Edinburgh, which isn't much larger than BHX, show more interest now both their rivals are here?

Lots of questions to be answered in the coming months...

 

[Daza]

Great news who saw this coming....not even the usual know-all! Fantastic for the Midlands
Daza