A new airport.... South Yorkshire Airport City?

[Egyptian King]

This is the below in full;


So much wrong with it it’s infuriating and worrying, but it’s interesting to note the only reference to the SAU feedback was the tiny bit (of a much bigger and more damning report which has already been discussed on here) relating to the reason they’ve decided to subsidise the reopening after exploring other opportunities. This is not a positive, the private sector have rejected it and this should be sounding alarm bells! Not only that, but the only reason the council haven’t explored other uses of the site is because there are planning restrictions currently in place, planning restrictions that the council themselves have set!
!

Then there is the fact they appear to be using Bradshaws to do the independent scrutiny of the business case. Is this who SYMCA are using or have CDC commissioned them? Why not Grant Thornton? Why not one of the big 4 they used previously? Wouldn’t be because EY based their results on having a private sector investor would it?

Segregation of duties, you cannot be auditor and consultant.

 

[pug]

Segregation of duties, you cannot be auditor and consultant.

I’m aware of the distinction, but are Bradshaws consulting or auditing? My question was why not one of the big 4? They haven’t used all of them. I believe KPMG were used by Peel and EY were used initially by CDC but apparently aren’t being used now after the model changed.

In other news, the below article is a decent read even if it does have a green slant;

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I sense this isn’t over by any stretch.

 

[Egyptian King]

They cannot use KPMG, EY, Grant Thornton, BDO, it leaves PWC and Deloitte

 

[Silvercity]

KLM will absolutely be on their target list, as will Jet2 and easyjet. Suspect emerald will also feature, plus the smaller ones like BH Air. They’ll probably want Lufthansa but we know how they are in the uk market. Much like all the others (except KLM) they’ve never been interested in serving the regions and are quite happy serving the major centres like Birmingham, Manchester, Edinburgh etc outside of London.

The Commercial guy at HUY some years ago did a good job of attracting SAS so it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that if they engage local stakeholders they’ll see some results. Only problem is as we’re aware SAS lasted about 6 months at HUY and not much longer at LBA.

I can’t emphasise enough just how tough this is going to be, and although MAI may have their oven ready relationships with airlines, it’s meaningless when it comes to the market DSA purports to serve. It’s just not attractive when it is so close to other operating bases. The local population aren’t well off generally speaking and they don’t fly much either. It’s just stupid to try to sell it as economic regeneration because you need the market there first, you don’t build airports in the hope that one day people will fly enough to sustain it! The Spanish examples are a case in point, operated by an experienced operator but it’s ultimately on the airlines as to whether they see any advantages of flying from an airport and it’ll be no different under MAI than it was under Peel and VAS. Anyone who thinks differently is deluded.

I remember chatting with a KLM regional manager once many years ago now, I asked whether they would relocate from HUY and he said no, it wasn’t an attractive proposition because HUY was high yielding and a relatively low cost base. The flying time is so small and they can just drop in from the airways at Skeggy/Mablethorpe and fly straight in, fuel savings compared to DSA were significant I was told, plus they could drop in and get back out rapidly. We saw with LPL and more recently EMA that airports much more popular than DSA couldn’t sustain the KLM flights, don’t see why DSA would be any different and it would only displace the cluster at HUY that’s been decades in the making.

Im not sure about EMA , but in the case of LPL , KLM struggled to compete with a racked up schedule from Easyjet to Amsterdam. Plus some other factors on their Manchester ops.

 

[pug]

Im not sure about EMA , but in the case of LPL , KLM struggled to compete with a racked up schedule from Easyjet to Amsterdam. Plus some other factors on their Manchester ops.

It was designed to serve as a hub operator and not to compete with easyjet. I can’t remember the total interlining passenger numbers for KLM but at Humberside it’s something like 85% of all users are connecting to other destinations. EasyJet doesn’t really offer that and as such cannot compete. Regardless of the reason, they dropped the route after 2 years as they have done at numerous other airports in the U.K. after a relatively short time, it shows that these routes are often not sustainable and DSA will be no different in this regard. East Midlands was also an outlier and it failed to make a mark. Even Sheffield City, although over 20 years ago, the passenger useage fell off after the initial strong first year of service on the KLM UK SZD-AMS. It cannot be denied that SZD was in the heart of the market it purported to serve.

LPL HAD a daily LH FRA service, long may that continue, but this ties in with what WH said in her last post, they won’t look at airports before 5mppa. DSA will never reach that figure.

Edit: it had slipped my attention that LPL hasn’t had a LH service since 2023? Latest was that they hadn’t ruled out a return for 2025 but that appears to not be on the cards at this time. Not a good sign for DSA is it.

 

[Silvercity]

It was designed to serve as a hub operator and not to compete with easyjet. I can’t remember the total interlining passenger numbers for KLM but at Humberside it’s something like 85% of all users are connecting to other destinations. EasyJet doesn’t really offer that and as such cannot compete. Regardless of the reason, they dropped the route after 2 years as they have done at numerous other airports in the U.K. after a relatively short time, it shows that these routes are often not sustainable and DSA will be no different in this regard. East Midlands was also an outlier and it failed to make a mark. Even Sheffield City, although over 20 years ago, the passenger useage fell off after the initial strong first year of service on the KLM UK SZD-AMS. It cannot be denied that SZD was in the heart of the market it purported to serve.

LPL HAD a daily LH FRA service, long may that continue, but this ties in with what WH said in her last post, they won’t look at airports before 5mppa. DSA will never reach that figure.

Edit: it had slipped my attention that LPL hasn’t had a LH service since 2023? Latest was that they hadn’t ruled out a return for 2025 but that appears to not be on the cards at this time. Not a good sign for DSA is it.

Yes LPL management are still in contact with LH , so hopefully there will be a reinstatement. The loss of KLM was disappointing considering they added a 4th rotation. Passenger figures are neck to neck with NCL now, and I know they have been talking. Even though Humberside handles less AMS pax than LPL its a long way from any other airport so this will certainly help it. I can't see KLM going to DSA being HUY is long established.

 

[pug]

Yes LPL management are still in contact with LH , so hopefully there will be a reinstatement. The loss of KLM was disappointing considering they added a 4th rotation. Passenger figures are neck to neck with NCL now, and I know they have been talking. Even though Humberside handles less AMS pax than LPL its a long way from any other airport so this will certainly help it. I can't see KLM going to DSA being HUY is long established.

Suppose LPL has the MAN impact, but isn’t Liverpool the 5th most visited city in the U.K? Certainly helps their cause where inbound demand is concerned.

If South Yorkshire was remote from other cities there’s no doubt it would be able to support a busy airport, but it’s not and unless they build a wall around it to prevent people going elsewhere it’ll always struggle because of that.

Never say never about KLM, but I’d be concerned about them shifting over to DSA and then true to form dropping it after 18 months/2 years. There are numerous reasons they stayed at HUY, not least that the route has been a constant for 50 years apart from during Covid when it slowed down. I remember 6 flights a day on the F50 before they were scrapped and replaced by the F100/70 and even then HUY had 4 flights a day at times. I remember even since DSA has been open that there were weekly 767 flights to Palma and Dalaman so the people pushing for DSA clearly don’t realise that there’s an underused airport within their catchment area that is profitable and could take up any negligible market share in that part of SY/North Notts sustainably without costing £100’s of millions.

Pride comes before the fall though, and it’s local pride and political pledges that are driving this now. The article i posted in a previous thread picks up on this and the lengths the authorities in SY appears to be going to ensure nobody gets to scrutinise these plans.

 

[752]

KLM will absolutely be on their target list, as will Jet2 and easyjet. Suspect emerald will also feature, plus the smaller ones like BH Air. They’ll probably want Lufthansa but we know how they are in the uk market. Much like all the others (except KLM) they’ve never been interested in serving the regions and are quite happy serving the major centres like Birmingham, Manchester, Edinburgh etc outside of London.

The Commercial guy at HUY some years ago did a good job of attracting SAS so it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that if they engage local stakeholders they’ll see some results. Only problem is as we’re aware SAS lasted about 6 months at HUY and not much longer at LBA.

I can’t emphasise enough just how tough this is going to be, and although MAI may have their oven ready relationships with airlines, it’s meaningless when it comes to the market DSA purports to serve. It’s just not attractive when it is so close to other operating bases. The local population aren’t well off generally speaking and they don’t fly much either. It’s just stupid to try to sell it as economic regeneration because you need the market there first, you don’t build airports in the hope that one day people will fly enough to sustain it! The Spanish examples are a case in point, operated by an experienced operator but it’s ultimately on the airlines as to whether they see any advantages of flying from an airport and it’ll be no different under MAI than it was under Peel and VAS. Anyone who thinks differently is deluded.

I remember chatting with a KLM regional manager once many years ago now, I asked whether they would relocate from HUY and he said no, it wasn’t an attractive proposition because HUY was high yielding and a relatively low cost base. The flying time is so small and they can just drop in from the airways at Skeggy/Mablethorpe and fly straight in, fuel savings compared to DSA were significant I was told, plus they could drop in and get back out rapidly. We saw with LPL and more recently EMA that airports much more popular than DSA couldn’t sustain the KLM flights, don’t see why DSA would be any different and it would only displace the cluster at HUY that’s been decades in the making.

Oh yes I'm sure they have a list, doesn't every airport? Id love to see DSA's actual realistic list, so TUI then what? x1 Balkan to BOJ?

Emerald are not in a great place financially either, I think they will be sticking to core routes, not ones they tried tested and failed from DSA before.

the saveDSA group list is crazy with people adamant they don't want Ryanair in, what? Europe's biggest airline? right.. laughable really you couldn't make it up.

Its been reported elsewhere EMA cargo was down 14% for DEC24 compared to DEC23, so what exactly piece of the cargo pie are DSA looking to attract/steal?

 

[pug]

Oh yes I'm sure they have a list, doesn't every airport? Id love to see DSA's actual realistic list, so TUI then what? x1 Balkan to BOJ?

Emerald are not in a great place financially either, I think they will be sticking to core routes, not ones they tried tested and failed from DSA before.

the saveDSA group list is crazy with people adamant they don't want Ryanair in, what? Europe's biggest airline? right.. laughable really you couldn't make it up.

Its been reported elsewhere EMA cargo was down 14% for DEC24 compared to DEC23, so what exactly piece of the cargo pie are DSA looking to attract/steal?

On cargo I notice that FedEx have reduce capacity quite significantly at EMA from 777’s to (I think) ATR’s to Paris and Liege. This is part of a European restructuring/cost saving exercise which has resulted in the loss of some 2000 jobs - blamed on an overall lowering of demand across the air sector. Didn’t they have frequent routes to the states not so long ago? Memphis or Indianapolis? I know DHL and UPS are the main players there in the parcel world, with WA still doing the RM contract. But UPS and DHL have invested heavily in it, so stands to reason they’d have a bigger presence there. The FedEx restructuring just shows how unreliable that market can be too, and it has huge cost barriers to entry.

For those that have never seen these facilities up close, they are huge and the investment these companies have put into EMA shows how tough it’ll be for DSA to get anywhere in that market. It would pick up some, no doubt about that, but it won’t be enough to keep the airport going.

 

[Egyptian King]

The opinion poll for local elections Doncaster someone has posted puts Reform on 35%, Labour 28% and Tories 18%

 

[pug]

The opinion poll for local elections Doncaster someone has posted puts Reform on 35%, Labour 28% and Tories 18%

Opinion polls are so unreliable I wouldn’t like to call it, but the airport will be a large concern for many (although I’m not convinced the majority, I still think most people wouldn’t care either way when the chips are down), and I don’t believe Reform would be able to reopen the airport, nor the Tories. It’s a political project and will only receive the funding if Labour stay in.

Anyway, apparently it’s been confirmed that the MAI contract will result in them bearing no risk or reward. They are going to get paid no matter what happens, and will not be subject to performance related bonus. This is not going to end well.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

I don't think it's a question of moving. Airlines don't give up a steady market share at existing bases to take a gamble at a new airport that previously failed over a 17 year period, especially if they tried there first time around and failed themselves. The best they're likely to do is operate a limited number of routes that are pretty much guaranteed to sell and where they can do so without damaging their ops at existing bases. A slow build up, not going in all guns blazing with high frequencies or on dodgy routes.

I'm told by those in high places that Lufthansa will not entertain airports that have less than 5m passengers per year generally. KLM haven't enough aircraft to serve existing and successful routes. They are not going to give up LBA or HUY to risk DSA. Emerald may offer a few flights to see how it goes. Wizz have said they're happy at LBA but money talks. If the deal offered and their last passenger figures suggest their profits at DSA would exceed LBA then who knows. But it will take a major about turn by them and there's no doubt LBA managenent will be aware of the threat, and doing their best to renegotiate contracts to tie airlines down at LBA for the forseeable. In the case of Easyjet they'll be doing their damnedest to get further growth and potentially a base post 2026. But if they won't base at LBA yet why on Earth would they go back to DSA? Been there, done that.

So, maybe TUi. Maybe a handful of flights from other operators. But 4 or 5 airlines means nothing if most only offer a daily or twice daily turboprop . DSA needs way more or it'll be haemmoraging money so fast it won't last 5 years.

5m pax is a figure used by most airlines and retail concessions. Leeds is on the cusp of acheiving this level of throughput of course.

 

[pug]

5m pax is a figure used by most airlines and retail concessions. Leeds is on the cusp of acheiving this level of throughput of course.

This is why I think MAI are the wrong people to oversee the reopening. They’re used to large airports where concessions are lining up to enter and provide that much needed revenue. MAI talk of passenger experience, this is great but does anyone honestly believe the airlines care all that much about it? They just want to be able to drop in, turn around and get out. They also want to be certain that there’s a large enough pool of people wanting to buy tickets. So far MAI have been quite quiet on the airlines front, basically saying it’s too early to discuss it. They’ve been told by non aviation people that they must look to attract 4 to 5 airlines. If only it was that easy we wouldn’t be where we are now!

There is not the scope to see 5mppa at DSA due to market constraints, particularly with the presence of LBA nearby. To make it profitable they will have to have a balance between costs passed on to airlines AND maximising non aviation revenue. In other words they’ll have to charge more than Peel did, and I’m not sure how that’s going to land.

 

[rabbitfoot]

Doncaster Sheffield Airport’s best chance of success was not to close in first place, former senior manager tells Insider - Insider Media

Doncaster Sheffield Airport faces a “big challenge” to win back customer and airline confidence if it reopens, a former senior manager there has told Insider.

www.insidermedia.com

 

[pug]

Doncaster Sheffield Airport’s best chance of success was not to close in first place, former senior manager tells Insider - Insider Media

Doncaster Sheffield Airport faces a “big challenge” to win back customer and airline confidence if it reopens, a former senior manager there has told Insider.

www.insidermedia.com

I think I might know who they’ve spoken to, and if it’s the person I’m thinking of they have only posted the positive. There are fundamental issues that this person is aware of that have no mention in that article. This also includes what I’ve heard about this freight partner mentioned in the article and the amount of investment that may have been required from the airport side to get across the line, something which I understand (but could be wrong) would have resulted in a small number of flight uplifts relative to the investment. Can see with what’s happening at FedEx (and I understand DHL too) that the international parcel network is flailing a little at the moment. Peel simply wouldn’t have made the decision to close had this been made a reality, and I think this person is alluding to the rejected £20 million loan from SYMCA as the reason it did so when they said it needed public sector support..

A stark warning then that they’re going to struggle to regain market interest. And now we have Dan Fell saying that if it’s kicked back again there will be a loss in confidence. I just can’t see how it’ll reopen fully in spring 26 given the amount of work required.

 

[Guppy]

note the comment by Daniel Fell, looks like they are trying to point fingers already, stating if SYMCA delays funding they may miss the window of opportunity to open in 2026 (which it is unlikely event if things go smoothly to open in 2026)

“Dan Fell says: “If the release of funding is delayed beyond summer 2025 and we miss the window for 2026 and it becomes 2027 or 2028 before the airport can fully reopen, then confidence could ebb from the project and there will be more sunken investment because the authorities currently pay rent to Peel. Pace is important. It would be indefensible if our strategic partners did not do everything in their power to get this project over line now.””

 

[pug]

note the comment by Daniel Fell, looks like they are trying to point fingers already, stating if SYMCA delays funding they may miss the window of opportunity to open in 2026 (which it is unlikely event if things go smoothly to open in 2026)

“Dan Fell says: “If the release of funding is delayed beyond summer 2025 and we miss the window for 2026 and it becomes 2027 or 2028 before the airport can fully reopen, then confidence could ebb from the project and there will be more sunken investment because the authorities currently pay rent to Peel. Pace is important. It would be indefensible if our strategic partners did not do everything in their power to get this project over line now.””

Yes I wonder how much of that £20 million they’ve just been given is to be directly invested into the work necessary to get all the regulatory boxes ticked. So far they don’t appear to have done any recruitment for fire or ATC etc and that I would think is vital to get in position NOW. But are they waiting til funding is approved to get that ball rolling? If that’s the case then they’ll not be able to get everything in place in less than 12 months, either the necessary training and testing that would be required. It’s going to slip back regardless.

 

[White Heather]

Yes I wonder how much of that £20 million they’ve just been given is to be directly invested into the work necessary to get all the regulatory boxes ticked. So far they don’t appear to have done any recruitment for fire or ATC etc and that I would think is vital to get in position NOW. But are they waiting til funding is approved to get that ball rolling? If that’s the case then they’ll not be able to get everything in place in less than 12 months, either the necessary training and testing that would be required. It’s going to slip back regardless.

I've been saying it for ages. Spring 2026 to get fully reopened is a pipe dream. I wonder if they have even explored the lead in times to order and take delivery of essential equipment ? There's a long list of things to do:

Negotiate and secure airspace from CAA.

Reinstall approach lighting (may need new lease as understood the ground they were on was leased).

Runway repairs

Procure install and test ATC equipment.

Procure, install and test baggage scanners to meet new standards.

Procure and await delivery of airfield fire equipment.

Recruit ATC staff

Recruit and possibly train fire service staff.

Let contracts with ground handling (Swissport?)

Swissport staff recruitment

Let contracts for terminal retail units

Construction of terminal retail units

Recruitment and training of staff for retail units.

Recruitment and training of staff for baggage scanning (requires Govt Security Checks which a year ago took 16 weeks)

Recruitment and training of all general airport staff, including Management, HR, airfield management, electrical etc. many requiring security clearance.

Secure Fire Certificate

ILS calibration

General airfield checks and maintenance.

Secure airport operators licence.

Develop airport website Inc arrivals and departures board.

Let airline contracts

Route advertising and general publicity.

Car park management.

Transport to and from airport to negotiate. (bus services, taxi contracts etc).

Much of this can't really start in any meaningful way until final funding is agreed by OC. I cannot see any way that FlyDoncaster and MAI can do all of these tasks in the 9 months or so available, and I suspect recruitment may be an issue too. How many skilled professionals will give up a secure post at other airports to move ( possibly house and family too) to Doncaster to take the risk at a previously failed airport?

I wonder too how much the likes of Swissport will demand to set up another base at DSA less than 4 years after having to close one down and either lose or redistribute trained staff. They may well load their rates to reflect what they see as a risky project and to cover any future losses.

 

[pug]

I've been saying it for ages. Spring 2026 to get fully reopened is a pipe dream. I wonder if they have even explored the lead in times to order and take delivery of essential equipment ? There's a long list of things to do:

Negotiate and secure airspace from CAA.

Reinstall approach lighting (may need new lease as understood the ground they were on was leased).

Runway repairs

Procure install and test ATC equipment.

Procure, install and test baggage scanners to meet new standards.

Procure and await delivery of airfield fire equipment.

Recruit ATC staff

Recruit and possibly train fire service staff.

Let contracts with ground handling (Swissport?)

Swissport staff recruitment

Let contracts for terminal retail units

Construction of terminal retail units

Recruitment and training of staff for retail units.

Recruitment and training of staff for baggage scanning (requires Govt Security Checks which a year ago took 16 weeks)

Recruitment and training of all general airport staff, including Management, HR, airfield management, electrical etc. many requiring security clearance.

Secure Fire Certificate

ILS calibration

General airfield checks and maintenance.

Secure airport operators licence.

Develop airport website Inc arrivals and departures board.

Let airline contracts

Route advertising and general publicity.

Car park management.

Transport to and from airport to negotiate. (bus services, taxi contracts etc).

Much of this can't really start in any meaningful way until final funding is agreed by OC. I cannot see any way that FlyDoncaster and MAI can do all of these tasks in the 9 months or so available, and I suspect recruitment may be an issue too. How many skilled professionals will give up a secure post at other airports to move ( possibly house and family too) to Doncaster to take the risk at a previously failed airport?

I wonder too how much the likes of Swissport will demand to set up another base at DSA less than 4 years after having to close one down and either lose or redistribute trained staff. They may well load their rates to reflect what they see as a risky project and to cover any future losses.

All good points, I’m sure some of that will be ongoing now with the latest injection of cash. However I’m not sure if recruitment, third party contracts and advanced airline discussions can really take place until they can categorically confirm that all funding is in place to continue. It seems to be relying on a lot of good will from a lot of stakeholders and I don’t think there is a place for that. I certainly can’t imagine TUI for instance being keen to allocate slots or aircraft and resources to it if there’s no cast iron guarantee it’ll open when they say it will. Likewise I can’t imagine they’d get all that much uptake in the suitably qualified people applying for jobs at this stage. I wonder whether they intend to subcontract the ATC and fire cover as that would enable them to reduce the lead in time on those fronts.

 

[GolfFox]

I've been saying it for ages. Spring 2026 to get fully reopened is a pipe dream. I wonder if they have even explored the lead in times to order and take delivery of essential equipment ? There's a long list of things to do:

Negotiate and secure airspace from CAA.

Reinstall approach lighting (may need new lease as understood the ground they were on was leased).

Runway repairs

Procure install and test ATC equipment.

Procure, install and test baggage scanners to meet new standards.

Procure and await delivery of airfield fire equipment.

Recruit ATC staff

Recruit and possibly train fire service staff.

Let contracts with ground handling (Swissport?)

Swissport staff recruitment

Let contracts for terminal retail units

Construction of terminal retail units

Recruitment and training of staff for retail units.

Recruitment and training of staff for baggage scanning (requires Govt Security Checks which a year ago took 16 weeks)

Recruitment and training of all general airport staff, including Management, HR, airfield management, electrical etc. many requiring security clearance.

Secure Fire Certificate

ILS calibration

General airfield checks and maintenance.

Secure airport operators licence.

Develop airport website Inc arrivals and departures board.

Let airline contracts

Route advertising and general publicity.

Car park management.

Transport to and from airport to negotiate. (bus services, taxi contracts etc).

Much of this can't really start in any meaningful way until final funding is agreed by OC. I cannot see any way that FlyDoncaster and MAI can do all of these tasks in the 9 months or so available, and I suspect recruitment may be an issue too. How many skilled professionals will give up a secure post at other airports to move ( possibly house and family too) to Doncaster to take the risk at a previously failed airport?

I wonder too how much the likes of Swissport will demand to set up another base at DSA less than 4 years after having to close one down and either lose or redistribute trained staff. They may well load their rates to reflect what they see as a risky project and to cover any future losses.

There's also the CAA lead time to factor in for lots of audits and 'approvals' before an airfield license can be granted - and the CAA are notorious for their two speed approach - 'slow' and 'stop'.
Even if by some miracle they manage to achieve it by next Spring, it does seem highly unlikely that there will be any meaningful aircraft availability. They do seem to be on a hiding to nothing unfortunately for them - and the lease clock continues ticking!

All good points, I’m sure some of that will be ongoing now with the latest injection of cash. However I’m not sure if recruitment, third party contracts and advanced airline discussions can really take place until they can categorically confirm that all funding is in place to continue. It seems to be relying on a lot of good will from a lot of stakeholders and I don’t think there is a place for that. I certainly can’t imagine TUI for instance being keen to allocate slots or aircraft and resources to it if there’s no cast iron guarantee it’ll open when they say it will. Likewise I can’t imagine they’d get all that much uptake in the suitably qualified people applying for jobs at this stage. I wonder whether they intend to subcontract the ATC and fire cover as that would enable them to reduce the lead in time on those fronts.

It might well reduce lead time - although I suspect that there are not that many ATC guys - even at contractors - with capacity to spare. Still to recruit I would suspect and the costs of doing that are likely to increase. Of course your point is extremely valid - it's a brave contractor who would progress some of these things without a definite go ahead on the inadequate funding.