CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[White Heather]

The August loss is predominantly down to the loss of last summer's flights provided by both TUI (based Sunwing 737 800 and the 4 times weekly Thomas Cook A321 flights from Turkey. Those losses were offset to some degree by a few more Jet2 rotations but as I mentioned last month, reductions in passenger numbers over the summer were inevitable after losing both of them. Unfortunately, the cuts by Ryanair and loss of the Flybe to Dusseldorf now means that the reductions will continue through winter and into next summer as well unless something changes.

 

[Tarn Spotter]

We still have our head above water year on year by 0.6%.
East Midlands down 1.2%, newcastle 1.6% and Glasgow 7.6% year on year.
Doncaster up on the same month last year by 21.7%, bet in a years time these figures will look grim.

 

[Bigman]

Yes, Donny are going to get it as well, especially with the FlyBe cuts. Brexit might still have a big part to play, especially if the Eastern European gravy train gets affected.

 

[Statto]

Hello - thanks for the welcome the other day. As I promised, here are some data insights into the performance of LBA and UK airports more generally that might be of interest.

The main challenge being posed by some observers seemed to fit into "has LBA underperformed since it was privatised?". LBA was taken into private ownership in April 2007. Passenger numbers in the calendar year 2006 therefore seems a reasonable starting point for the comparison.

In 2006 LBA handled 2,787,217 passengers. It's latest annual rolling total is 4,048,678 (to July 19). Growth of 45.3%. UK airports in total have grown by 26.3% over the same period, so LBA has done significantly better than the UK as a whole.

Another comparison could be against similar sized airports in 2006. There were 12 airports in the 2M - 6M passengers per annum category in 2006. In the table below they are ranked by their size in 2006.

View attachment 15098

What is noticeable here, is that a number of the airports that LBA would be most commonly compared to; Newcastle, Liverpool, East Midlands have significantly underperformed compared to the UK as a whole. Remember, UK airports have grown by c.26% in the period since 2006, so the fact Newcastle has actually reduced in size and Liverpool and East Midlands have barely grown, does make the LBA performance more impressive.

Of course, what this hints at is a power struggle going on between smaller / mid-sized airports and bigger airports in most UK regions. Typically the story is one of traffic generally gravitating towards larger airports in a region and smaller ones either stagnating, shrinking or even closing.

View attachment 15099

Observations:

1. London remains dominant. As Heathrow and Gatwick reach capacity, growth is spreading out to places like Luton, Stansted, City and more recently Southend. Luton has grown from 9.5M passengers to just short of 18M in this period To give a sense of the scale, Gatwick (with one runway) handles 46.6M passengers which is over 1M more than the entire airport system of the North West, Yorkshire and the North East !
2. In the NW, we see this pattern emerging of the smallest airports struggling, the mid size airports stagnating and the largest airports growing. In the North West, Blackpool has closed, Liverpool has barely grown and obviously Manchester is picking up the growth. Of all of the UK airports, Manchester is the one where a sizeable proportion of its traffic directly originates from the catchment area of other established airports and it clearly has a negative impact on airports outside of the North West too (notably the Midlands and Yorkshire)
3. In Scotland's central belt, Edinburgh is the growth story (+71%) Glasgow has been the one which has stagnated(+4%) and Prestwick (-73%), although still open, has seen a significant reduction in passenger numbers. The Thomas Cook operation in Scotland was centred around Glasgow and so this situation is unlikely to improve in the short term.
4. In the Midlands, we have a carbon copy of the North West. For Blackpool, read Coventry which has closed. For Liverpool read East Midlands which has stagnated, and for Manchester read Birmingham which is where the growth has gone. East Midlands used to pick up charter traffic from South Yorkshire and therefore the emergence of Doncaster is likely to have had some impact here. Manchester is also reasonably accessible from South Yorkshire too and of course the Manchester Airports Group also own East Midlands so little incentive for them to flight that battle!
5. The South West is all about Bristol which has grown by 55%, making it 4th behind London City, Luton and Edinburgh in terms of growth rates of major airports. Cardiff has shrunk by 17% and Exeter has barely grown, so again we have consolidation around one site. Plymouth has closed but wasn't a major contributor of passenger numbers.
6. Yorkshire is actually the best performing region in terms of growth rates, but obviously is starting from a smaller base of passenger numbers. Like other regions, the smallest airport (in this case Humberside) has suffered, but growth rates at LBA and Doncaster have been strong and above the national average. To have two airports in a region growing strongly is unusual, but of course Doncaster is a relatively new airport and this must be taken into account.
7. The North East has performed really poorly. The small airport (Teesside) has shrunk from 900,000 passengers to 144,000 but Newcastle has also reduced in size too. The picture is likely to deteriorate further in the short term,. Thomas Cook had a sizeable operation in Newcastle which, despite some modest growth from TUI and Jet2, is not likely to be fully replicated. Ryanair have also announced reductions from Newcastle too. I suspect the problem is that as a small / remote part of the country, passengers from other regions are unlikely to travel to Newcastle for flights. However given the lack of availability, residents of the North East will be inclined to travel to Scotland / Manchester for flights. LBA is likely to have been a beneficiary of the decline of Teesside too.

So in conclusion I would say LBA has done pretty well compared to the rate of growth in the UK and compared to similar sized airports in the North. Clearly the absolute level of traffic at LBA (and DSA) is negatively impacted by Manchester. I note that successive management teams at LBA have been much more focussed on surface access improvements than runway improvements which makes sense looking at these trends. Lots of airports with long runways and excellent weather records have struggled to grow and its interesting that the biggest success stories in recent times have been LTN, BRS and LCY. Their strength is in their catchment areas rather than their runway infrastructure which are probably best described as 'adequate' for the markets they serve. To develop a successful airport, catchment area, it seems to me, is much more important than the runway itself.

 

[mullion]

Welcome Stratto and thanks for the time spent on an interesting post

 

[Jerry]

Fantastic post!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Welcome Stratto and thanks for the time spent on an interesting post

Fantastic post!

I second the sentiments in the above linked posts. Extremely detailed post from Statto (not the Statto from the 1990s tv show Fantasy Football League I take it ) with a fascinating commentary. It shows that sometimes perceptions can be overturned by facts.

Many thanks.

 

[airforced]

A very valuable and interesting post Statto. With the numbers being crunched, as you have done, we now have a compelling alternative view to that which is usually made on this forum which I find most illuminating. Thank you for your time, effort and lucid reasoning too. Your continued participation here will be most welcome.

 

[Aviador]

Welcome to Forums4airports @Statto good to have you on board.

 

[LBA4EVER]

A very interesting post statto but lets just imagine jet2 was not around! the figures would be far more different. Its a good job jet2 is very much here at LBA altho if they were not then someone else probably would be.

 

[Aviador]

In all honesty @fight2win I think if Jet2 wasn't around I don't think it would be long before another airline filled the void. What Jet2 has proved is there is demand for flights from Leeds and they have proven there is scope for more.

 

[mullion]

Jet2 is one of those airlines that appear once in a blue moon and have changed half of Britains airports, I remember the first Jet2
B733 at Manchester and wondering how long they would last, little did I know they were going to be double the size of any other airline
at Manchester and that they would outlast Monarch// Thomas Cook etc and long may the continue

 

[LBAYORKIE]

Fantastic piece of work, I dont underestimate the effort that has gone into this and I am sure we are all very appreciative.

 

[White Heather]

I would like to add my thanks to Statto for a superb post which, I believe, puts the growth (and current stagnation) of LBA into perspective. Thank you.

 

[a300boy]

Just to add my bit !
I don’t share all the conclusions Statto has made but it’s a well put together post and enlightens us all.
Hard to argue against the numbers and the plights of other similar airfields in the Uk.
Well done and thanks for your efforts.

 

[Statto]

A very interesting post statto but lets just imagine jet2 was not around! the figures would be far more different. Its a good job jet2 is very much here at LBA altho if they were not then someone else probably would be.

Hi - one other piece of analysis you might find interesting. This is total aircraft movements and the % of those movements provided by the largest carrier. This isn't seats, so the percentages would look a bit different in some cases, but generally speaking I think it is quite representative of what is going on. The analysis doesn't suggest that LBA is unusual. Luton (our standout performer from the earlier analysis) is more concentrated than LBA. Newcastle, whilst having a nice spread of airlines, has not grown at all. Whilst having a large base does introduce some risk in the event that the airline gets into difficulties, the other side of the coin is that it is much easier for an airline with a large base to grow. Jet2 at LBA, with 15 or so aircraft at the station have all of the infrastructure in place such that adding new routes or increasing frequencies is, relatively speaking, much easier than it would be if they only had 4 or 5 aircraft.

View attachment 15119

Anyway, thanks for the feedback and I look forward to joining in some of the other discussions. And of course A300 boy I'm happy to discuss interpretations / conclusions.

 

[stars&sids]

Hello - thanks for the welcome the other day. As I promised, here are some data insights into the performance of LBA and UK airports more generally that might be of interest.

The main challenge being posed by some observers seemed to fit into "has LBA underperformed since it was privatised?". LBA was taken into private ownership in April 2007. Passenger numbers in the calendar year 2006 therefore seems a reasonable starting point for the comparison.

In 2006 LBA handled 2,787,217 passengers. It's latest annual rolling total is 4,048,678 (to July 19). Growth of 45.3%. UK airports in total have grown by 26.3% over the same period, so LBA has done significantly better than the UK as a whole.

Another comparison could be against similar sized airports in 2006. There were 12 airports in the 2M - 6M passengers per annum category in 2006. In the table below they are ranked by their size in 2006.

View attachment 15098

What is noticeable here, is that a number of the airports that LBA would be most commonly compared to; Newcastle, Liverpool, East Midlands have significantly underperformed compared to the UK as a whole. Remember, UK airports have grown by c.26% in the period since 2006, so the fact Newcastle has actually reduced in size and Liverpool and East Midlands have barely grown, does make the LBA performance more impressive.

Of course, what this hints at is a power struggle going on between smaller / mid-sized airports and bigger airports in most UK regions. Typically the story is one of traffic generally gravitating towards larger airports in a region and smaller ones either stagnating, shrinking or even closing.

View attachment 15099

Observations:

1. London remains dominant. As Heathrow and Gatwick reach capacity, growth is spreading out to places like Luton, Stansted, City and more recently Southend. Luton has grown from 9.5M passengers to just short of 18M in this period To give a sense of the scale, Gatwick (with one runway) handles 46.6M passengers which is over 1M more than the entire airport system of the North West, Yorkshire and the North East !
2. In the NW, we see this pattern emerging of the smallest airports struggling, the mid size airports stagnating and the largest airports growing. In the North West, Blackpool has closed, Liverpool has barely grown and obviously Manchester is picking up the growth. Of all of the UK airports, Manchester is the one where a sizeable proportion of its traffic directly originates from the catchment area of other established airports and it clearly has a negative impact on airports outside of the North West too (notably the Midlands and Yorkshire)
3. In Scotland's central belt, Edinburgh is the growth story (+71%) Glasgow has been the one which has stagnated(+4%) and Prestwick (-73%), although still open, has seen a significant reduction in passenger numbers. The Thomas Cook operation in Scotland was centred around Glasgow and so this situation is unlikely to improve in the short term.
4. In the Midlands, we have a carbon copy of the North West. For Blackpool, read Coventry which has closed. For Liverpool read East Midlands which has stagnated, and for Manchester read Birmingham which is where the growth has gone. East Midlands used to pick up charter traffic from South Yorkshire and therefore the emergence of Doncaster is likely to have had some impact here. Manchester is also reasonably accessible from South Yorkshire too and of course the Manchester Airports Group also own East Midlands so little incentive for them to flight that battle!
5. The South West is all about Bristol which has grown by 55%, making it 4th behind London City, Luton and Edinburgh in terms of growth rates of major airports. Cardiff has shrunk by 17% and Exeter has barely grown, so again we have consolidation around one site. Plymouth has closed but wasn't a major contributor of passenger numbers.
6. Yorkshire is actually the best performing region in terms of growth rates, but obviously is starting from a smaller base of passenger numbers. Like other regions, the smallest airport (in this case Humberside) has suffered, but growth rates at LBA and Doncaster have been strong and above the national average. To have two airports in a region growing strongly is unusual, but of course Doncaster is a relatively new airport and this must be taken into account.
7. The North East has performed really poorly. The small airport (Teesside) has shrunk from 900,000 passengers to 144,000 but Newcastle has also reduced in size too. The picture is likely to deteriorate further in the short term,. Thomas Cook had a sizeable operation in Newcastle which, despite some modest growth from TUI and Jet2, is not likely to be fully replicated. Ryanair have also announced reductions from Newcastle too. I suspect the problem is that as a small / remote part of the country, passengers from other regions are unlikely to travel to Newcastle for flights. However given the lack of availability, residents of the North East will be inclined to travel to Scotland / Manchester for flights. LBA is likely to have been a beneficiary of the decline of Teesside too.

So in conclusion I would say LBA has done pretty well compared to the rate of growth in the UK and compared to similar sized airports in the North. Clearly the absolute level of traffic at LBA (and DSA) is negatively impacted by Manchester. I note that successive management teams at LBA have been much more focussed on surface access improvements than runway improvements which makes sense looking at these trends. Lots of airports with long runways and excellent weather records have struggled to grow and its interesting that the biggest success stories in recent times have been LTN, BRS and LCY. Their strength is in their catchment areas rather than their runway infrastructure which are probably best described as 'adequate' for the markets they serve. To develop a successful airport, catchment area, it seems to me, is much more important than the runway itself.

Wow, fantastic report! Well presented in an interesting format. Welcome to the forum statto.

 

[Rob c DSA]

Some great stats, very interesting read.

 

[LBA4EVER]

Hi - one other piece of analysis you might find interesting. This is total aircraft movements and the % of those movements provided by the largest carrier. This isn't seats, so the percentages would look a bit different in some cases, but generally speaking I think it is quite representative of what is going on. The analysis doesn't suggest that LBA is unusual. Luton (our standout performer from the earlier analysis) is more concentrated than LBA. Newcastle, whilst having a nice spread of airlines, has not grown at all. Whilst having a large base does introduce some risk in the event that the airline gets into difficulties, the other side of the coin is that it is much easier for an airline with a large base to grow. Jet2 at LBA, with 15 or so aircraft at the station have all of the infrastructure in place such that adding new routes or increasing frequencies is, relatively speaking, much easier than it would be if they only had 4 or 5 aircraft.

View attachment 15119

Anyway, thanks for the feedback and I look forward to joining in some of the other discussions. And of course A300 boy I'm happy to discuss interpretations / conclusions.

Anyone noticed how many airports have flybe as their largest user! flybe is one to watch atm!
Also the fact that just 39% of our movements are jet2 does show that we do have more variety of airlines at LBA compared to most others and that we are not reliant on one airline. Anyone know the percentage breakdown for each airline at LBA?

 

[White Heather]

Another really interesting read Statto, many thanks. LBA is often stated as being very reliant on Jet2, but the figures you have posted show that in fact we are less reliant on our main airline than many others. That said, the loss of one based Ryanair aircraft and the resultant increase in Jet2 movements to compensate to some degree, means that in the not too distant future, the percentage of Jet2 movements is likely to increase.