CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[White Heather]

The lack of aircraft stands is not having any affect on LBA trying to bring in new airlines, since they are targeting airlines that are not based at LBA and unlikely to be based at LBA. They are likely to operate into LBA during the day when there are plenty of empty aircraft stands for most of the day. It is precisely that type of flight that LBA needs to attract so the airport is busy all day, not just in the usual busy periods. It is the based airlines such as Jet2, Monarch and Ryanair whose expansion plans will be on hold to a degree, although both Jet2 and Monarch can increase capacity easily enough by basing larger aircraft types such as the Boeing 757/Airbus A321 etc. We do not necessarily need more overnight based aircraft to increase passenger numbers at the airport - we need an influx of European operators who are based elsewhere.

 

[a300boy]

The spotter in me would love lots of different airlines based elsewhere popping in every day. Bit of competition out there for services, but as our promotions team have done so well ,who knows. I hope the non based aircraft do not have delays or technical issues as if they all arrived at the same time we would be back to our lack of parking stands problem again during certain times of the day.

 

[Aviador]

The lack of aircraft stands is not having any affect on LBA trying to bring in new airlines, since they are targeting airlines that are not based at LBA and unlikely to be based at LBA. They are likely to operate into LBA during the day when there are plenty of empty aircraft stands for most of the day. It is precisely that type of flight that LBA needs to attract so the airport is busy all day, not just in the usual busy periods. It is the based airlines such as Jet2, Monarch and Ryanair whose expansion plans will be on hold to a degree, although both Jet2 and Monarch can increase capacity easily enough by basing larger aircraft types such as the Boeing 757/Airbus A321 etc. We do not necessarily need more overnight based aircraft to increase passenger numbers at the airport - we need an influx of European operators who are based elsewhere.

You are right in what you say to an extent but you are relying on flexibility coming from the customer rather than the airport itself. Saying Jet2 "can" base larger aircraft might not fit into their plans. Monarch are phasing out some of their "larger" aircraft too so that might not work for them either. Also, telling any potential new airline they can only come to LBA between this hour and that hour when it's quieter isn't going to boost enthusiasm for any new would-be operator. It is the airport that needs to be more flexible not the customer. If you look at Manchester airport, even they have periods when flights are few and far between, all airports suffer from the same problem, it isn't a Leeds phenomenon. So it's unlikely Leeds will have any more success at filling these gaps than other airports.

 

[a300boy]

Just looking at this winter period morning there were eleven aircraft parked up doing nothing, so not too many stands left for operating aircraft no matter where they are based.

 

[lbaspotter]

Last night saw x21 over nighting aircraft at Leeds/Bradford as follows. Jet2 only require 5/6 aircraft in service whilst ryanair only use 2x aircraft most days.

10x LS - B733 = G-CELB/E/G/J/U, G-GDFG/H/M/O/T
1x LS - B738 = G-GDFR
4x LS - B752 = G-LSAD/H/J/K
1x ZB - A320 = G-ZBAA
3x FR - B738 = EI-DYK, EI-DAG, EI-EKJ
1x T3 = JS41 = G-MAJD
1x KL = FK70 = PH-KZU

You may also be able to add another Jet2 B733 to that list this evening seen as G-CELY positioned in this morning from Belfast Int'l as EXS31E. That's unless its going into the Multiflight Hangar!

 

[White Heather]

It is the penalty for having Jet2 based here that during the winter, they have aircraft standing idle taking up parking spaces. If LBA built another 10 parking spaces and Jet2 then expanded their operations along with Monarch and Ryanair, we could end up with all the space full again not too far down the line as they increase the number of based aircraft. Sooner or later LBA will reach capacity, with nowhere else to park aircraft. Overall the airfield itself is not the biggest is it? And there is no real scope to make it bigger, so I doubt there is room for too many more aircraft stands anyway. They cannot be built within a specific distance of the runway, so space is very limited.

During the summer, by 0800, we have already had 15 -20 departures, so there are plenty of stands all morning until based aircraft return. Ryanair make use of these by having some flights arriving early morning and they do the same again in the afternoon, using foreign based aircraft. LBA needs to get 3 or 4 other airlines based abroad to do something similar. I believe that even Jet2 are using a Spanish based aircraft next year, to fly into LBA when it is quieter, so it is the way forward in the short term. It is a quick fix for the problem. There will be no more parking stands for some time yet, even if they started to build them in the near future. Surely nobody can argue that we need foreign airlines. We cannot rely totally on Jet2, Monarch and especially Ryanair, given their track record for disappearing if they fall out with the airport.

As for Aviadors point about based airlines maybe not using larger types because it doesn't fit with their plans - well they can't have it both ways. If Jet2 cannot base more aircraft but wish to carry more passengers, they have the aircraft to do it, with the 737 -800 (of which they are buying more) and the 757. If they choose to base them elsewhere, fair enough, but they can't really claim that they are unable to expand at all, because they still can. They are electing not to and preferring to expand at other bases, principally MAN. They would only have to replace a couple of 737-300's with 800's and base another 757 and across the summer there would be a reasonable increase in pax.

The Masterplan is due out in the not too distant future, so perhaps we should just wait and see what's in it. We can complain about the lack of stands all day long but it won't make them appear. Bridgepoint are very aware of the issue and have hinted that they will be dealing with it, so lets just wait and see.

 

[a300boy]

White Heather, that all makes sense to me so lets wait and see what the masterplan tells us. We may all be able to jump on the Bridgepoint happy wagon. Hope so !

 

[752]

White Heather, as you say Jet2 park a lot of their aircraft up in winter as we all know, do you know or anybody else, how much it costs to park these aircraft up over winter? Does it justify LBA building more stands so more aircraft can be parked here over winter?

 

[Tarn Spotter]

No idea of the cost of parking, but Ryanair park up at LBA in winter, they are taking out twice the number of aircraft this winter then last according to their last financila statemnt, I think 80 in total, but Ryanair PR states they are operating more routes this winter and standing less, so who knows the truth. Winter standing allows the operators to do a full maintenance schedule and swap the fleet about to spread the work load over the whole fleet.

 

[752]

Also regarding the passengers increase on next year, hopefully we will see a slight rise with Jet2 replacing a -300 with an -800 & hopefully the Heathrow numbers will continue to rise, along with Flybe picking up the Belfast pax, from my own personal opinion, I would love to see some Turkish charter flights operated by Onur air, Vueling operating some Spanish flights and Wizz operating some Polish flights, all of these companies would not operate at peak times and would increase pax numbers at LBA. I know the chance of some of these routes are slim, but this is a way around the parking issues.

 

[User0001]

The lack of aircraft stands is not having any affect on LBA trying to bring in new airlines, since they are targeting airlines that are not based at LBA and unlikely to be based at LBA. They are likely to operate into LBA during the day when there are plenty of empty aircraft stands for most of the day. It is precisely that type of flight that LBA needs to attract so the airport is busy all day, not just in the usual busy periods. It is the based airlines such as Jet2, Monarch and Ryanair whose expansion plans will be on hold to a degree, although both Jet2 and Monarch can increase capacity easily enough by basing larger aircraft types such as the Boeing 757/Airbus A321 etc. We do not necessarily need more overnight based aircraft to increase passenger numbers at the airport - we need an influx of European operators who are based elsewhere.

In this day and age of aviation airports do not 'target' airlines. They either do a deal with them (like MAN, EMA have recently done with MON, RYR etc) or they don't. Of course Bridgepoint are not doing anymore deals with airlines both new and current to base planes because in the the last 6/7 years they've not been willing or able to spend any money on aircraft parking stands. As AVIADOR very accurately points out LBIA is now beginning to let down its customer airlines. Of course the airport will look to none based airlines to fill the quieter slots - every airport without fail does. There is every possibility though that these none based airlines will greatly upset the constrained home based airlines who would love to expand and offer that route if only they had the room and flexibility to do so.

Can you imagine morrisons saying we arent going to build anymore carpark so now we are just going to target customers who will come on foot! Customers would say fine we'll just drive to asda who offer us all the parking we require. A bit like jet2 expanding at manchester. The customer is ALWAYS right - you give them what they want or they will be off!

The airport will now begin to stagnate because work that should have been done years ago has not been done.

That is where LBIA is at right now - SATURATION POINT.

 

[User0001]

It is the penalty for having Jet2 based here that during the winter, they have aircraft standing idle taking up parking spaces. If LBA built another 10 parking spaces and Jet2 then expanded their operations along with Monarch and Ryanair, we could end up with all the space full again not too far down the line as they increase the number of based aircraft. Sooner or later LBA will reach capacity, with nowhere else to park aircraft. Overall the airfield itself is not the biggest is it? And there is no real scope to make it bigger, so I doubt there is room for too many more aircraft stands anyway. They cannot be built within a specific distance of the runway, so space is very limited.

During the summer, by 0800, we have already had 15 -20 departures, so there are plenty of stands all morning until based aircraft return. Ryanair make use of these by having some flights arriving early morning and they do the same again in the afternoon, using foreign based aircraft. LBA needs to get 3 or 4 other airlines based abroad to do something similar. I believe that even Jet2 are using a Spanish based aircraft next year, to fly into LBA when it is quieter, so it is the way forward in the short term. It is a quick fix for the problem. There will be no more parking stands for some time yet, even if they started to build them in the near future. Surely nobody can argue that we need foreign airlines. We cannot rely totally on Jet2, Monarch and especially Ryanair, given their track record for disappearing if they fall out with the airport.

As for Aviadors point about based airlines maybe not using larger types because it doesn't fit with their plans - well they can't have it both ways. If Jet2 cannot base more aircraft but wish to carry more passengers, they have the aircraft to do it, with the 737 -800 (of which they are buying more) and the 757. If they choose to base them elsewhere, fair enough, but they can't really claim that they are unable to expand at all, because they still can. They are electing not to and preferring to expand at other bases, principally MAN. They would only have to replace a couple of 737-300's with 800's and base another 757 and across the summer there would be a reasonable increase in pax.

The Masterplan is due out in the not too distant future, so perhaps we should just wait and see what's in it. We can complain about the lack of stands all day long but it won't make them appear. Bridgepoint are very aware of the issue and have hinted that they will be dealing with it, so lets just wait and see.

Jet 2 can have it both ways infact they can have it any which way they want. They are the customer and what they require you give them. Exactly the same with RYR. They don't fall out with airports - what happens is the airports are unable to match their terms and therefore they take their business to an airport that does. There's no falling out at all - its called business. The 1970s and 80s have gone and will never return! The airlines rule and the airports better get their act together. Some are becoming housing estates. Get building some aircraft stands etc!
I do hope the 3 years late masterplan is not the toilet paper that the last masterplan was. Where is it?

 

[rmac]

LUFCPete mentions LBA is at SATURATION POINT. Ok In what way? Is the runway operating at full capacity? No. Is the terminal too small now? Can it be expanded? Yes.
So the next question is - can more parking stands be constructed? it would seem so.Therefore at what cost? Can Bridgepoint afford it? Can they afford NOT to build more? Especially as they would want the based airlines to expand to some degree it would seem important to do this fairly urgently. It would be good to see the likes of Norwegian, Wizzair, etc etc helping to even out the flow of arrivals/departures but looking after those who have already committed to the airport and so far have seemed happy with their decision is a priority for the management at LBA.

 

[leedsman]

The provisional November stats have been published today. Another very strong month....

Nov 2013 Rolling Year: 3,303,225 (+11.1%)

Nov 2013 Month: 166,035 (+18.2%)

LHR 10,187
BHD 12,364 (+26%)
DUB 16,099 (+10%)
FAO 6,085 (+261%)
ALC 14,211 (+16%)
ACE 10,256 (+71%)
TFS 11,565 (+27%)
ISB 2,653 (+43%)

 

[cmj]

A bit worrying that LHR is down from the previous month?

 

[Tarn Spotter]

After all the doom and gloom about this winters LBA schedule on this forum, an 18.2% increase based on basically the same number of aircraft movements as last November would seem to be an excellant figure. Even removing LHR traffic in the month as it did not exsist in 2012 still shows better growth then most u.k. airports..
Certainly these figures show that there is a vast potential growth in winter business for 2014/15 without any investment from the airport operators.

 

[Aviador]

I think it depends on what type of investment you are talking about? We know there is plenty of room on the ramp and in the terminal during the winter months to allow for significant winter growth. There are of course the much talked about runway constraints but the airport has made it clear it isn't prioritising improvements in these areas. If airlines insist on improvements to the landing aids the airport may well re-prioritise such projects. Whatever the reason, It just goes to show how underused flights were last winter if they can achieve an 18.2% increase on the same number of flights as last year.

 

[User0001]

Whatever the reason, It just goes to show how underused flights were last winter if they can achieve an 18.2% increase on the same number of flights as last year.

Some of this is down to routes that were operated on smaller aircraft being dropped. Bristol, Brussels & Isle of Man were operating last winter for example. Jet2 were also still flying to BFS which was a big aircraft but with low load factors. I think the combined passenger loading for BRS / BRU / IOM and BFS last November was about 6500. BA delivered over 10,000 this November from fewer ATMs that than all of these other routes combined.

On top of that, there is the Monarch base which is operating this November and it wasn't open last year. It's not huge in ATM terms, but its a big aircraft operating on some long sectors. Ryanair dropping Gdansk and Vilnius for the winter will have offset some of this.

A bit worrying that LHR is down from the previous month?

It dropped 10% month on month. Other domestic routes to Heathrow performed as follows. EDI was down 11%, GLA down 10%, MAN down 9% and NCL down 7%. Most people would reasonably expect November to be lower than October given November is a weak month for leisure travel in particular and the LBA route appears to have followed a more general trend.

One other interesting snippet from the data was that fact that the total fall in passenger numbers between Oct and Nov was steeper at East Mids than at LBA. East Mids now has a very similar traffic mix with Jet2, Ryanair, Monarch and Flybe providing the bulk of the traffic and it seems these operators take a very similar approach in how they adjust winter schedules at the two airports. East Mids of course has a long, into wind CAT3 runway with an excellent weather record yet it appears to make no difference to winter reductions. Looking at other regional airports that fare better than LBA & EMA in retaining winter traffic, then the presence of Easyjet seems to make a big difference and I think it's fair to say, they operate a much more balanced year round schedule than Jet2, for example. Better schedules and/or higher frequency to CDG, AMS, LHR and DUB would be another factor. 4 or 5 weekly to CDG for example, isn't great. I don't see an Easyjet base anytime soon, but improving the business routes is all within the art of the possible.

 

[Aviador]

That's a very good point you make regarding East Midlands winter traffic vs Leeds Bradford, but it creates a dilemma for airport bosses at Leeds because East Midlands still has the space to attract year round operators. Leeds has to rely on achieving growth through increasing winter operations. The latest article in the YEP about suggests Monarch are looking to expand winter flying at LBA with a view to increasing the winter ski offering which might help to rectify the problem to some extent.

 

[Bigman]

For information, I have just looked at there were 16 routes we had figures for in November 2012 which we don't this year. They accounted for 12,951 passengers in 2012.