May 2016
As the CAA has finally condescended to publish May's airport figures I had a look at a few easyJet routes, mainly those that didn't operate in summer 2015, to get an idea of the numbers travelling.
Vienna (2 x weekly, began at the beginning of last winter)
2513 passengers, average load 139.6. The aircraft was an A319 on Mondays and an A320 on Fridays giving a load factor for the month of 83.8%
Basel (4 x weekly, began at the beginning of last winter)
4865 passengers, average load 135.1, load factor on all-A319 route was 86.6%
Venice Marco Polo (4 x weekly, re-instated in March this year after several years' absence)
4798 passengers, average load 133.2, load factor on all-A319 route was 85.4%
(Ryanair increased its version of Venice (Treviso) to 3 x weekly from 2 x weekly and carried 4021 passengers, average load, 154.6, load factor 81.8%. Ryanair is switching its BRS route from Treviso to Venice Marco Polo this September))
Nantes (2 x weekly, new route although operated by bmi regional in summer 2015, but they have now pulled out)
1653 passengers, average load 91.8. The aircraft was an A319 on Mondays and an A320 on Thursdays giving a load factor for the month of 55.1%
Isle of Man (2 x weekly, commenced summer 2015 and operated through last winter at a reduced frequency)
2111 passengers, average load 117.3, load factor on all-A319 route was 75.2%
IoM was a surprise to many, including me, when easyJet commenced to operate it, especially at 4 x weekly which was the frequency in summer 2015. It was reduced to 2 x weekly last winter and remains thus during this summer. Operating on Fridays and Sundays seems to be working because, although the load factor is below the airline's normal load at BRS, it might be sufficient on this route. I can't imagine easyJet expected full aircraft all the time although today's outbound is shown as sold out. As an aside, when Flybe operated the route the average load was usually in the 30s.
The other routes mentioned above did quite well for May except Nantes which might benefit from a later start, say early June.