Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Land23R]

Air India intends to add more than 400 weekly flights to its domestic and international network during the winter schedule | India News - Times of India

India News: Air India plans to add over 400 weekly flights to its domestic and international routes by March 2024. The airline aims to strengthen its domestic net

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

The latest rumour is BOM-MAN from May.

That article refers to additional routes up to 31 March with no mention of MAN. As you saw from the start of W23 ACL report above, Air India had slots for a February start with T2 allocated. This presumably means MAN-BOM isn't starting then after all which personally I find disappointing.
So where does this rumour of a May start now come from?

I'd like to think the rumour is good, but unfortunately MAN's recent experience has to been to see a few long haul carriers applying for slots only for nothing to happen.

 

[BLB777]

Any updates on the S24 reports, suppose to be this week but to no avail. I know this gets asked quite a bit, but there doesn't seem to be any clarity on when reports get published. Wish ACL had a calender which showed when reports were due out

 

[Scottie Dog]

I normally receive the ACL report link direct from the company - fingers crossed that it's not too much longer.

 

[David_itl]

The blurb on the October passenger numbers did include this paragraph:

" Manchester Airport has already announced a number of new routes for next year, including the return of direct flights to Las Vegas with Virgin Atlantic, which makes Manchester the only UK airport outside London to serve America’s west coast. Further new routes will be announced over the coming months."

So... let's work out who the likely ones are going to be out of these
Air India to Mumbai
Aer Lingus to Chicago or Boston
China Eastern or Juneyao to Shanghai
United to New York Newark
American to Philadelphia
ITA Airways to Milan
LOT to Warsaw
Thai to Bangkok
Air Serbia to Belgrade
Royal Air Maroc to Casablanca

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Well we should see confirmation of Luxair to Luxembourg and Southwind to Antalya.

Aer Lingus expansion looks unlikely in S24 due to fleet availability constraints. United and American also very unlikely to return in 2024. Thai and Air India seem to apply for slots most years but never show up ... Air India the more prospective of the two this time around. There is a niche for those aforementioned short-haul carriers, but will they bite? Could do with Air Baltic back too ... very frustrating that they pulled their Riga service just as we were allowed to start travelling again post-covid. Of course the route did badly through that period! I had five bookings cancelled and refunded myself.

The other weird one is Sky Express, who saturate our evening TV with their "Greece is bliss" ads, yet have no seats to sell from anywhere in the North as far as I am aware.

 

[David_itl]

Aer Lingus is a bit of a curious one in that they are like Virgin in having fleet constraints but seemingly able to conjure up routes out of their main hub at will. For them. they may have a "forced" hand to come here with the passenger cap at Dublin being close to being breached so not able to add long-haul there.

 

[BlueManc]

Other almost launched (even appeared on our departure boards):
Royal Jordanian to Amman
Play to Keflavik

 

[Land23R]

Other almost launched (even appeared on our departure boards):
Royal Jordanian to Amman
Play to Keflavik

Quite right. RJ did appear on our boards at one stage, as did Thai. Have a feeling AI may have done briefly as well. Personally, I would put AI to BOM as a major priority.

If EIUK really are doing well at MAN, they may be tempted to introduce ORD, a/c availability permitting, but not until 2025 at the earliest I'd imagine. For TATL growth though, while the pound remains in the $1.20- $1.25 range,, MAN and its promotional partners somehow have to attract more US citizens to fly into our airport rather than into and out of LHR or into LHR and out of EDI. Various surveys show that Manchester is an increasingly attractive city to visit. But unless and until that happens, I can't see the return of US carriers anytime soon, but would be delighted to be proved wrong.

 

[laviation]

ORD was to be introduced from S24 although things changed.

Imho, attainable long haul priorities for the next 18 months (S25) should be:

United to Newark
American to Philadelphia
JetBlue to JFK
Air India to Mumbai/Delhi
Thai to Bangkok
Royal Jordanian to Amman
Chicago with Aer Lingus
Shanghai be it China Eastern or Juneyao

 

[EGCC_MAN]

We must keep in mind that when CW makes statements such as that above, he really does mean new ROUTES as opposed to just new tails, which we tend to think of on forums such as this. Likely sources of those will include EasyJet, Ryanair and Jet2. TUI probably won't add much.

I wouldn't hold out much hope for Royal Jordanian in S24. The country's main tourist attraction - Petra - is pretty close to Israel and the West Bank. Not the place to be right now.

Iceland is also at risk if that volcano erupts as expected ... it is REALLY close to Keflavik Airport, and threatens to engulf the Blue Lagoon (already closed for safety reasons) which is Iceland's premier tourist attraction.

 

[BlueManc]

SPD also reported earlier this month:
"Summer 2024 slots show Eurowings applied for 4 weekly Stuttgart"

I think that may be a route reinstatement, possibly Lufty a few years back.

 

[LS@MAN]

SPD also reported earlier this month:
"Summer 2024 slots show Eurowings applied for 4 weekly Stuttgart"

I think that may be a route reinstatement, possibly Lufty a few years back.

I vaguely remember this route being served either by Germanwings or Lufthansa.
Also Hannover too…but this was wuth Flybe.

 

[Scottie Dog]

I vaguely remember this route being served either by Germanwings or Lufthansa.
Also Hannover too…but this was wuth Flybe.

Unfortunately my laptop currently is rather poorly due to a virus however, when I have it back, I'll try to find the answer.

 

[David_itl]

I have 2 lots of flight numbers resonating in my head for Stuttgart services by Lufthansa Cityline. LH5216/LH5217 and LH5560/5561 using DHC8s and FK50s in2 the 1990s2
After stopping the route, they restarted it https://www.thebusinessdesk.com/northwest/news/20018-lufthansa-launches-new-manchester-service
Then it was given to Germanwings https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...ngs-to-open-stuttgart-manchester-route-878361

 

[Land23R]

Looking at SPD Travels latest posts on X, it doesn't look like Air India is coming anytime soon.
Talking to airlines is fine, but at the end of the day, a deal has to be sealed, and it just doesn't seem to be happening for MAN at present on long haul to any significant degree.

 

[laviation]

The latest rumour is May but Feb not happening (as alluded to by SPD)

 

[BlueManc]

Quite frustrating really. I remember the years of new airlines taking a punt and not lasting long (BWIA, Air Jamaica, Cubana, SAA, Air Mauritius, Air Seychelles) but the 'newer' start-ups seem to go from strength to strength (Saudia, Aer Lingus, Gulf Air, Kuwait, Egyptair).

I wonder if the CEO ever asks to strategists "why didn't we do this before?"

I can expect whoever (re)starts Bangkok, Mumbai and Chicago will ask the same thing!

 

[Finger66]

Air Travel has moved on significantly since the days of BWIA, Air Jamaica et al. It will continue to move on so expect continued growth and success from new players and any possible re-entrants

 

[Land23R]

The latest rumour is May but Feb not happening (as alluded to by SPD)

As the ACL report for S24 is delayed, do we even know if AI still have slots for the summer? Not that it necessarily means much even if they do.

 

[David_itl]

if we want to include the list of "never ever" routes, there is finally some blurb out there that breaks down the PER-LHR route. I was surprised that near enough 43% of the passengers are connecting at LHR which is all the more surprising how much LHR-Australia outperforms the rest of the UK

MAN-LHR-PER is 9.5% of the passengers number, and when banded with LBA and NCL, the North of England makes up 16% of the passenger numbers and Scotland 13% and Ireland/Northern Ireland the rest. Car, coach and rail wasn't included,
Be another 10 to15 years before we may get a non-stop route on the A321XXXXXXXLR
This is the report

https://www.aerosociety.com/media/13283/the-commercial-viability-of-ultra-long-haul-operations.pdf