Route Development & Rumours

[Finger66]

Unfortunately, the "LBA Rumours and development" thread is definitely skewed towards the "Rumours"

Rumours are what keep us going in the absence of anything concrete. However I suspect we will start to see more of the latter in the coming months and years as our facilities and infrastructure improve.

P.s and that is without the 32 TDZ being moved to Elland Road or the 14 one placed on top of The Chevin!

 

[CM.]

Well there's being negative and being realistic. A lot of the airlines talked about is it realistic for them to come to this airport?

I get what you’re saying but we don’t know what the future holds maybe they will come maybe not.. but you can still look at the positives.

Unfortunately, the "LBA Rumours and development" thread is definitely skewed towards the "Rumours"

Until something gets confirmed by the airport and airline then it will always be rumours. Plus this thread is called the “Route development and Romours”

 

[Jerry]

I get what you’re saying but we don’t know what the future holds maybe they will come maybe not.. but you can still look at the positives.

I think sometimes there does need to be some realism though. I think otherwise we as aviation enthusiasts build up on hopes and expectations too much and then get constantly disappointed.
And tbf to LBA as an airport in general it is going in the right direction and hopefully will get more easyjet flights and more European airlines in the future.

 

[Aviador]

Well there's being negative and being realistic. A lot of the airlines talked about is it realistic for them to come to this airport?


Because Easyjet are already operating from LBA and short haul is a very different market to long haul.

So what was the rationale for Qatar to operate out of Cardiff bear in mind Cardiff has a considerably smaller catchment area than Leeds. Yes, the route might have paused since Covid but it wasn't exactly an instant failure either was it? It seems like all the arguments given against the idea are displelled when you look at other airports. The close proximity of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Regional departure points such as Newcastle and Cardiff. Personally I believe the catchment for Cardiff is too small but then there's East Midlands, Bristol, Leeds and Newcastle that could perform well with more options available. It is only a matter of time and it will only take one airline to come in and it wont just impact their own ops out of neighbouring Manchester but crucially it will impact their competitors from there too which is why the first to do it will have a major advantage.

 

[Jerry]

So what was the rationale for Qatar to operate out of Cardiff bear in mind Cardiff has a considerably smaller catchment area than Leeds.

Well let's be blunt Cardiff had an advantage Leeds doesn't. The Welsh government. Yorkshire doesn't have it's own government in that regard that can look at putting together a sort of route development fund that could be used to attract an airline like Qatar Airways. Also Heathrow is a longer journey from Cardiffs catchment area. Look at Bristol in how it struggles with hub airlines.
As for other airports i think you have to look at why they work and airlines have operated to them. Newcastle isolation has been mentioned before but with Edinburgh and Glasgow you potentially have a bigger inbound tourism pull. Look at Edinburgh USA routes and with ME3 for Emirates operating Edinburgh and Glasgow may well be down to other airlines like Qatar Airways doing well at Edinburgh. They operated Glasgow first and only launched Edinburgh after their competition were successful there.

It is only a matter of time and it will only take one airline to come in and it wont just impact their own ops out of neighbouring Manchester but crucially it will impact their competitors from there too which is why the first to do it will have a major advantage.

You may well be right but what is it going to take for an airline to in thier eyes take that gamble? They are different to say Easyjet or Ryanair in that they can dip a toe in and slowly build up which Easyjet is doing they'd have to operate at least 5 weekly for it to be viable hub wise. For them it would need a decent incentive and I suspect Leeds owners wouldn't be able to or willing to subsidise an airline in the way say Cardiffs owners would or the local Yorkshire mayor's would the have the finances or be willing to either.

 

[Peter Barber]

I think we’re all well aware on here that @LBA4EVER has a love for things that are sprayed orange …so of course he wants to see EZY big at LBA

Probably a fan of Trump!

 

[gulftraveller]

QTR went to Cardiff (with subsidies) when Al Baker had ideas of taking on EK by covering smaller regional airports. This strategy is no more. Without cargo and strong premium uptake, CWL was always at a disadvantage. QTR has signalled it is not interested in expanding in the regional UK market by not ordering the XLR. ETD are notably more cautious than either QTR or UAE. Frankly, I cannot see any of them diluting their routes from MAN, a major destination for all three, just to spite their ‘rivals’.

 

[pug]

Its a bit contrary to say (as many do on here) that Jet2 and Ryanair will never fly to DSA because of the negative impact on their traffic from LBA (and EMA) yet advocate airlines with established MAN operations serving LBA.

I think that’s a bit more of a nuanced argument, the point about DSA was always that it doesn’t really have much of a market on its doorstep so inevitably if they were to serve DSA along side LBA and EMA they would be diluting their loads - possibly to an unacceptable level.

The LBA MAN point is a bit different. There’s no doubting that West Yorkshire is a large catchment area and there is therefore the case to make that more ground could be covered than currently is. I personally think there are limits to that, particularly on the long-haul front. But as @Statto has said, with fleet and market growth we can’t rule out an ME carrier in the medium term and that’s why those discussions will be happening now. Do I think they’ll come to anything? I’m 50/50 personally. As for links to the US? Think that’s highly unlikely unless we see a change in travel trends, but I’m sure those discussions are also taking place too.

With all that said, there will always be limits to the scope of growth at LBA, not because of the geographical constraints as such, but because it’s probably not in the interests of the likes of Cathay/Singapore/Virgin to add more airports to their U.K. network for a similar reason to DSA vs LBA/EMA, just on different economies of scale.

I can see LBA almost doubling in passenger numbers over the next 15-20 years, but that will be determined on a number of factors, DSA being one but also what the geopolitical and economic situation is by that point.

 

[White Heather]

Probably a fan of Trump!

He has already confirmed he is. Unlike me!

 

[Iron Duck]

Can we stop with the constant berating and mocking of other users? This is supposed to be a route development thread.

 

[White Heather]

Can we stop with the constant berating and mocking of other users? This is supposed to be a route development thread.

Nobody is mocking anyone, or berating anyone. It's light hearted banter. LBA4ever is a valued member who has his opinions which we all know only too well, about the runway, and as he told us recently, Donald Trump. We can agree to disagree on this and various matters, but there's nothing nasty here. Various members dish out comments and get them back and I can guarantee that if ever we all met up for a pint it would be all friends together.

Maybe that's not a bad idea!

 

[LBA4EVER]

I’m pinning my hopes on IPS Airways.

More chance of IPS than emirates thats for sure!
Wizz is the airline that could go big out of LBA with no real diluting of their ops and MAN not an issue, i can certainly think of a good few routes they could serve and Perfect aircraft plus always nice to see their great colour scheme!

 

[Finger66]

Various members dish out comments and get them back and I can guarantee that if ever we all met up for a pint it would be all friends together.

Maybe that's not a bad idea!

Personally I think that would be a great idea as I would love to meet more of you. I have met, and known, a few of you for many a year now, although it's not that many of you. I certainly know our discussions around LBA, including what we know and think will happen with new and existing routes is always very amicable. And banter yes, certainly nothing more.

Regardless of any specific opinions anyone has, we all want the best for LBA and there will be exciting and positive times ahead.

 

[LsS27]

Good idea Finger66. I can't make Sat, Sun or Monday as I am not around the Leeds area on those dasys.

 

[michael]

QTR went to Cardiff (with subsidies) when Al Baker had ideas of taking on EK by covering smaller regional airports. This strategy is no more. Without cargo and strong premium uptake, CWL was always at a disadvantage. QTR has signalled it is not interested in expanding in the regional UK market by not ordering the XLR. ETD are notably more cautious than either QTR or UAE. Frankly, I cannot see any of them diluting their routes from MAN, a major destination for all three, just to spite their ‘rivals’.

I'd look at it like this;
to me there's zero to 1% chance of Emirates arriving at LBA. However, there's more chance than there was a few months ago simply by the fact they now have the A350-900 in the fleet. Let's be realistic, they were never ever going to bring a A380 and the chances of a 777-300 (or even one of the few 200's they have) was pretty damn close to zero. So, as they acquire more 350's the chances very very slightly increase........maybe to 2% )

 

[Aviador]

What is interesting here is the number of non-LBA-supporters or LBA haters (one or the other) on this thread who dis the idea of anything changing at LBA almost as if they have a vested interest in the success of neighbouring airports.

Anyway, now that we've established that LBA will never ever have any of the big middle east operators or similar alternative via Turkey because the non-LBA-supporters say so. Those of us who do support the growth of LBA can can go back to talking about extra flights to Alicante. But wait, LBA couldn't possibly sustain another airline on that route could it.

 

[Bob O'JOb]

What is interesting here is the number of non-LBA-supporters or LBA haters (one or the other) on this thread who dis the idea of anything changing at LBA almost as if they have a vested interest in the success of neighbouring airports.

Anyway, now that we've established that LBA will never ever have any of the big middle east operators or similar alternative via Turkey because the non-LBA-supporters say so. Those of us who do support the growth of LBA can can go back to talking about extra flights to Alicante. But wait, LBA couldn't possibly sustain another airline on that route could it.

You can class this as those on fantasy island looking out, and those looking in, and laughing. There's room for expansion yes, but other than niche routes such as connections to Pakistan, it'll be more bucket and spade routes or increases in frequencies and possibly additional operators. This whole "you're either with us or against us" attitude pervades across the board, and gives the impression of insular, special notebook obsessed spotters with little grasp on reality.

 

[LBA4EVER]

You can class this as those on fantasy island looking out, and those looking in, and laughing. There's room for expansion yes, but other than niche routes such as connections to Pakistan, it'll be more bucket and spade routes or increases in frequencies and possibly additional operators. This whole "you're either with us or against us" attitude pervades across the board, and gives the impression of insular, special notebook obsessed spotters with little grasp on reality.

Routes to pakistan are certainly possible with suitable aircraft esp as currently there are very few flights to there if any, its a market that could be snatched from MAN esp once our terminal extension is open and of course the large west yorks asian communities.
Im not been negative regarding the ME Operators, i really hope im proved wrong, id love to see them at LBA but when you look at every aspect it just aint gonna happen, qatar operating flights from LBA and MAN and extra flights from a different lowcost airline down to alicante from LBA and MAN is a totally different ball game, a vast difference.

 

[HX3]

@Aviador, half the negativity comes from LBA supporters, not LBA haters. Anyone who thinks it is conceivable that an airline may serve the ME3 hubs is referred to as a numpty, being from, or living on fantasy island,or in fantasy land, as it’s all pie in the sky.

There are clearly lots of views, and I suppose time will tell on how things pan out, but I’m personally hopeful. If places like Salzburg can get flydubai, why can’t LBA. Saudi routes may end up being Wizz, who knows.

The airport is expanding, we have a large catchment, and IMO we need ambition and positivity.

 

[Finger66]

Very well said @HX3