Archive Route Development & Rumours
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David_itl
Well-Known Member
- Jan 31, 2016
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Was a MAN flight ftom 2011 to 2012 and i remember Loganair doing it as LC584/5 for quite while with Sh360s before that.
Link for Flybe pulling the route http://www.derryjournal.com/news/tr...rry-manchester-flight-axed-by-flybe-1-3755151
Link for Flybe pulling the route http://www.derryjournal.com/news/tr...rry-manchester-flight-axed-by-flybe-1-3755151
Edited:
- Thai Manchester-Bangkok remains as usual. W17?
They had an event yesterday promoting Thai tourism, sponsored by themselves (see Dobbo's post), MAN-BKK is one of the largest unserved markets and largest out of Thailand (according to anna.aero) and we know there will be a W17 Star Alliance, A350-900 route with a tourism campaign. Is this tough nut finally cracking?
Might they also do a Scandinavian style operation, where the flight continues or stops at HKT?
-Air China Manchester-Shanghai
Since the UK-China bilaterals have been amended there is renewed hope for this. Strong rumours are circulating, Charlie Cornish will have a conference on increased connection to PVG on 21st Oct and User001 saying MAN will move very quickly. It is also slated to be 4 weekly using T2 and arriving around 1630, departing around 1900, using the 'quiet times' of the terminal. (Credit to User for times) Have their been any flight numbers assigned etc.? We could well have an officially announced link by Friday with flights bookable 'in the new year' according to pprune
There is an article on routesonline about the new UK-China agreement which says 'Manchester is hopeful of now adding to its single link with Air China already selected as the designated carrier for a potential Shanghai – Manchester route, which could now be formally launched within the coming weeks and realistically start in March 2017.' A March 17 launch for CA and a April 17 launch for WY would certainly add some substance to terminal 2 afternoons.
-Oman Air Manchester-Muscat
Again, just waiting for them to be bookable. The times, credit to User:
WY105 1405 MCT 1920 MAN
WY106 2050 MAN 0730 MCT
-Hainan Airlines Manchester-Beijing
Following my description of the amended bilaterals, this seems extremely likely. User has said that 7 slots will be snapped up quickly (4 PVG and 3 extra PEK). There is also rumour that by the end of November we will have daily PEK and 4 weekly PVG (CA) fully confirmed. The only question that remains is will the route use a daily 788 or continue with the 333? The 787s currently are rarely if ever used on European routes. I think with this renewed enthusiasm the question is rather when than if. Hainan released a statement saying that with the change in the agreements, they will look at increasing frequency on MAN-PEK flights. very encouraging to hear from the company officially. What would the timeline be of this type of increase? Would it be for S17?
-Vueling base
A Vueling base looks pretty certain. There was a lot of rumour about Seville, Santander, Palermo etc. however these have turned out to be errors, although one would say expansion is still in the pipeline. Rome has been moved to a morning flight and BCN going daily and 321 operation from JUL.
-Air Canada, Manchester-Vancouver and Manchester-Toronto expansion
Rumours on various forums about Manchester-Vancouver being in the next spate of expansion and some stating that it will be full service, tapping into the Seattle-Manchester IT market and some on the PPRUnE forum suggesting 777 operation and daily YYZ rouge. We will see whether this comes to fruition.
-Singapore Airlines Singapore-Manchester-Houston
Similar to last time, the rumour of will SQ go daily again still stands.
-Thomas Cook, Manchester-Cape Town, Mauritius and San Diego
Cape Town appeared in the GDS, looks likely for W17, as does Mauritius. Will San Diego come off for S18?
Some rumours on pprune for 3 weekly CPT, 1 weekly Sanya and Mauritius.
-Virgin Atlantic, any more expansion on the horizon?
BOS WILL be three weekly from July, making MAN-BOS 7 weekly with TCX.
I doubt than MAN-SFO will go year round but it depends on whether the business traffic is high enough to link the two cities, even twice weekly year round. 3x SFO and 3x BOS is pretty good utilization for an A333.
Will they ever launch LAX, MIA, DTW? Could they operate a similar model e.g. 3x MIA, 3x LAX with one more based aircraft? Could they even contemplate SEA? (no change from last time)
-China Southern Manchester-Guangzhou
A rumour previously raised, with the changes to the agreements could MAN-CAN be back on the table, 3 weekly, 788 as previously mentioned. I am really asking the members of this forum if they have any information/opinions on this possibility. The routes online article finishes with a graph. It lists the largest UK-China O&D markets the first one is LHR, PEK, PVG, MAN and the next one is CAN and CTU. After the supposed launch of PVG, surely CAN is a major target. It has a wealth of onward connections and could be done three weekly without too much of an affect on CX.
-Hainan Manchester-Xi'an
They have previously mentioned this, will it happen if Hainan acknowledge the utter success of Beijing and show more commitment? In an official statement, Hainan mentioned the possibility of linking second tier cities with Manchester now the bilateral agreements have changed. The first tier cities are usually classed as PVG, PEK, CAN whereas second tier cities are Chengdu, Shenzhen, Wuhan (of which MAN is a sister city), Changsha, Xi'an, Chongqing, Hangzhou... I would say given HNA's presence in the likes of XIY, Chongqing, HGH and CSX these would be most likely. Xi'an has been mentioned before but could they launch twice weekly HGH to compete with CA's PVG operation?
-Air China Manchester-Chengdu
The route conference has come and gone with no mention of MAN and with CA already dubbed to be going ahead with PVG it is unlikely they will launch two destinations right of the bat from an airport never served before.
-Flybe MAN-LDY
Londonderry has announced MAN as a target route if a PSO to STN is a success. Could BE reappear?
Expansion within the last week:
-SAS expansion
SAS will up their MAN-ARN route from 11 to 13 weekly, making overall ARN frequency 18 per week with a combination of SK, ZB and DY. They will also increase Oslo from 6 to 7 weekly.
-Aegean increase frequencies
Aegean will increase their Athens flight to 4 weekly permanently. We will see a short period of 4 weekly operation throughout the quiet winter period bizarrely, however from 20th June this change will be made permanent. Overall ATH frequency now at 8 weekly for next summer.
-PIA increases KHI-LHE-MAN-JFK-ISB-LHE flights
PIA will add a third daily rotation, 77W, arriving man 1555, departing 1725. Despite rumours it may move to Liepzig, expansion is expansion.
- Thai Manchester-Bangkok remains as usual. W17?
They had an event yesterday promoting Thai tourism, sponsored by themselves (see Dobbo's post), MAN-BKK is one of the largest unserved markets and largest out of Thailand (according to anna.aero) and we know there will be a W17 Star Alliance, A350-900 route with a tourism campaign. Is this tough nut finally cracking?
Might they also do a Scandinavian style operation, where the flight continues or stops at HKT?
-Air China Manchester-Shanghai
Since the UK-China bilaterals have been amended there is renewed hope for this. Strong rumours are circulating, Charlie Cornish will have a conference on increased connection to PVG on 21st Oct and User001 saying MAN will move very quickly. It is also slated to be 4 weekly using T2 and arriving around 1630, departing around 1900, using the 'quiet times' of the terminal. (Credit to User for times) Have their been any flight numbers assigned etc.? We could well have an officially announced link by Friday with flights bookable 'in the new year' according to pprune
There is an article on routesonline about the new UK-China agreement which says 'Manchester is hopeful of now adding to its single link with Air China already selected as the designated carrier for a potential Shanghai – Manchester route, which could now be formally launched within the coming weeks and realistically start in March 2017.' A March 17 launch for CA and a April 17 launch for WY would certainly add some substance to terminal 2 afternoons.
-Oman Air Manchester-Muscat
Again, just waiting for them to be bookable. The times, credit to User:
WY105 1405 MCT 1920 MAN
WY106 2050 MAN 0730 MCT
-Hainan Airlines Manchester-Beijing
Following my description of the amended bilaterals, this seems extremely likely. User has said that 7 slots will be snapped up quickly (4 PVG and 3 extra PEK). There is also rumour that by the end of November we will have daily PEK and 4 weekly PVG (CA) fully confirmed. The only question that remains is will the route use a daily 788 or continue with the 333? The 787s currently are rarely if ever used on European routes. I think with this renewed enthusiasm the question is rather when than if. Hainan released a statement saying that with the change in the agreements, they will look at increasing frequency on MAN-PEK flights. very encouraging to hear from the company officially. What would the timeline be of this type of increase? Would it be for S17?
-Vueling base
A Vueling base looks pretty certain. There was a lot of rumour about Seville, Santander, Palermo etc. however these have turned out to be errors, although one would say expansion is still in the pipeline. Rome has been moved to a morning flight and BCN going daily and 321 operation from JUL.
-Air Canada, Manchester-Vancouver and Manchester-Toronto expansion
Rumours on various forums about Manchester-Vancouver being in the next spate of expansion and some stating that it will be full service, tapping into the Seattle-Manchester IT market and some on the PPRUnE forum suggesting 777 operation and daily YYZ rouge. We will see whether this comes to fruition.
-Singapore Airlines Singapore-Manchester-Houston
Similar to last time, the rumour of will SQ go daily again still stands.
-Thomas Cook, Manchester-Cape Town, Mauritius and San Diego
Cape Town appeared in the GDS, looks likely for W17, as does Mauritius. Will San Diego come off for S18?
Some rumours on pprune for 3 weekly CPT, 1 weekly Sanya and Mauritius.
-Virgin Atlantic, any more expansion on the horizon?
BOS WILL be three weekly from July, making MAN-BOS 7 weekly with TCX.
I doubt than MAN-SFO will go year round but it depends on whether the business traffic is high enough to link the two cities, even twice weekly year round. 3x SFO and 3x BOS is pretty good utilization for an A333.
Will they ever launch LAX, MIA, DTW? Could they operate a similar model e.g. 3x MIA, 3x LAX with one more based aircraft? Could they even contemplate SEA? (no change from last time)
-China Southern Manchester-Guangzhou
A rumour previously raised, with the changes to the agreements could MAN-CAN be back on the table, 3 weekly, 788 as previously mentioned. I am really asking the members of this forum if they have any information/opinions on this possibility. The routes online article finishes with a graph. It lists the largest UK-China O&D markets the first one is LHR, PEK, PVG, MAN and the next one is CAN and CTU. After the supposed launch of PVG, surely CAN is a major target. It has a wealth of onward connections and could be done three weekly without too much of an affect on CX.
-Hainan Manchester-Xi'an
They have previously mentioned this, will it happen if Hainan acknowledge the utter success of Beijing and show more commitment? In an official statement, Hainan mentioned the possibility of linking second tier cities with Manchester now the bilateral agreements have changed. The first tier cities are usually classed as PVG, PEK, CAN whereas second tier cities are Chengdu, Shenzhen, Wuhan (of which MAN is a sister city), Changsha, Xi'an, Chongqing, Hangzhou... I would say given HNA's presence in the likes of XIY, Chongqing, HGH and CSX these would be most likely. Xi'an has been mentioned before but could they launch twice weekly HGH to compete with CA's PVG operation?
-Air China Manchester-Chengdu
The route conference has come and gone with no mention of MAN and with CA already dubbed to be going ahead with PVG it is unlikely they will launch two destinations right of the bat from an airport never served before.
-Flybe MAN-LDY
Londonderry has announced MAN as a target route if a PSO to STN is a success. Could BE reappear?
Expansion within the last week:
-SAS expansion
SAS will up their MAN-ARN route from 11 to 13 weekly, making overall ARN frequency 18 per week with a combination of SK, ZB and DY. They will also increase Oslo from 6 to 7 weekly.
-Aegean increase frequencies
Aegean will increase their Athens flight to 4 weekly permanently. We will see a short period of 4 weekly operation throughout the quiet winter period bizarrely, however from 20th June this change will be made permanent. Overall ATH frequency now at 8 weekly for next summer.
-PIA increases KHI-LHE-MAN-JFK-ISB-LHE flights
PIA will add a third daily rotation, 77W, arriving man 1555, departing 1725. Despite rumours it may move to Liepzig, expansion is expansion.
News from this week:
-Air China Manchester-Shanghai
According to User001, the Air China flights to Shanghai Pudong have been confirmed today by Charlie Cornish, however a press release is waiting. Great news!
-Oman Air Manchester-Muscat
Again, just waiting for them to be bookable. They are advertising for staff in the MAN area. The times, credit to User:
WY105 1405 MCT 1920 MAN
WY106 2050 MAN 0730 MCT
-Hainan Airlines Manchester-Beijing
Apparently also confirmed today! Two increases to China are superb! I have enquired about when this will be officially announced and with what aircraft. Will it continue as a 333 daily or downgrade in aircraft to 788/332?
-Air Canada, Manchester-Toronto goes daily
YYZ has today been increased to daily from June 30th. Great expansion - confirmed and bookable. Vancouver rumours still stand.
-Air India Manchester-Delhi
New rumours on pprune that AI will launch MAN in 2017, however, this is Air India so we must be cautious. However, if this does come to fruition, pretty amazing expansion for 2017!
-Air China Manchester-Shanghai
According to User001, the Air China flights to Shanghai Pudong have been confirmed today by Charlie Cornish, however a press release is waiting. Great news!
-Oman Air Manchester-Muscat
Again, just waiting for them to be bookable. They are advertising for staff in the MAN area. The times, credit to User:
WY105 1405 MCT 1920 MAN
WY106 2050 MAN 0730 MCT
-Hainan Airlines Manchester-Beijing
Apparently also confirmed today! Two increases to China are superb! I have enquired about when this will be officially announced and with what aircraft. Will it continue as a 333 daily or downgrade in aircraft to 788/332?
-Air Canada, Manchester-Toronto goes daily
YYZ has today been increased to daily from June 30th. Great expansion - confirmed and bookable. Vancouver rumours still stand.
-Air India Manchester-Delhi
New rumours on pprune that AI will launch MAN in 2017, however, this is Air India so we must be cautious. However, if this does come to fruition, pretty amazing expansion for 2017!
Oh, well perhaps they could lead into a scheduled flight, hopefully. The charters are to Delhi with about 4 return flights. Will they only be bookable to India or UK originating pax? It would be great if AI could get an idea of the market size, if it is successful it could go scheduled but if it is only bookable to some nationalities, it will mar this judgment.
Looking forward to this. If we can tick daily Beijing, Shanghai and a direct service to Delhi (albeit only 4 return services - it gives a step up to scheduled), it would be amazing.
Air India are very well aware of the potential market size - CAPA and other analysts provide them with such analysis (at a price) .
They also have historical data plus data from travel agent and consolidator regional bookings via FRA/LHR at hand.
Absolutely no need to "test" the market with a handful of risk-less (for them) charters.
They also have historical data plus data from travel agent and consolidator regional bookings via FRA/LHR at hand.
Absolutely no need to "test" the market with a handful of risk-less (for them) charters.
Dobbo
New Member
- Oct 27, 2015
- 0
- 0
Wholeheartedly agree. As unusual as it may be, a tangible demonstration of the strength of the market will invariably help if internal justification/approval is required by AI prior to a launch.
There is a big jump from the sorts of statistics provided to the airlines, and actually selling tickets. This may be particularly pertinent and necessary where the AI management see a successful route a few miles down the road at BHX.
There is a big jump from the sorts of statistics provided to the airlines, and actually selling tickets. This may be particularly pertinent and necessary where the AI management see a successful route a few miles down the road at BHX.
We need to be careful about reading too much into this. A series of four charters does not necessarily represent a yardstick to measure potential demand for a scheduled service. By its nature, a charter can be open to only a very specific group: clients of one tour operator, employees / conference delegates of one company, a sports team and its backroom staff, customers booked on a specific cruise, members of a specific orchestra or touring show production. You get the idea. A scheduled service is open to anyone who may wish to book travel. A charter can be a 'closed shop'. And even if it's not full, that won't worry the company chartering the aircraft if the job intended gets done. For a sports team, an orchestra or a specific business delegation, filling every seat is not the objective.
In this case, we can only draw conclusions when we know who is chartering the four flights and for what purpose. A tour operator would hope to fill all the seats. A specialist charter agency may not be concerned by that. And of course, the first and last of the four flights could ferry empty in one direction without implying that the series was a failure.
In this case, we can only draw conclusions when we know who is chartering the four flights and for what purpose. A tour operator would hope to fill all the seats. A specialist charter agency may not be concerned by that. And of course, the first and last of the four flights could ferry empty in one direction without implying that the series was a failure.
This is very true. We need to know why/who the charter is happening for. The Korean Air GLA charters are not open for British nationals to book, for example. If it is open to everyone, great and in that case it could provide an indicator. If not, at least we get some nice AI 788s to see at MAN for a month.
You hold people on so much suspense! Could you give any more clues e.g. continent, alliance, how soon, existing or new airline/route? It would be much appreciated!
On a side note, I am right in thinking the Air India mention only implies charter services in May?
Last edited:
- Moderator
- #698
Oh you tease! Seriously though, we know your teasers lead to interesting results.
Thanks as always for the update.
Thanks as always for the update.
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Well it looks like I'm off to Australia and New Zealand next year! Booked with BA from Manchester via Heathrow with a stop in Singapore and returning with Air New Zealand and BA via LAX to Heathrow. Will circumnavigate the globe and be my first trans-Pacific flight. First long haul flight with BA as well and of course Air NZ.
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