Archive Route Development & Rumours

[ethanegcc]

My prediction really depends on whether it is a new or existing airline. Could this news be the official announcement of Air Canada to Vancouver, more VS (maybe LAX)? Or, could it be something like Thai (although that looked likely for W17) or China Southern?

I hope we can have some more clues. It really is horrible to be on the brink of something great but not know what it is!

 

[David_itl]

I would say that each month for the next few months should see either new routes or enhanced frequencies on the long-haul front. Some will be more surprising than others.

 

[ethanegcc]

Well, we have Oman Air to become bookable, Air China 4 weekly PVG 'secured' awaiting official announcement and Hainan daily Beijing ready for an announcement.

In my opinion a Cathay Pacific increase would be the cherry on the cake but, considering the use of Brexit as a scapegoat to prevent the launching of new routes or act as a catalyst to postponing, next year looks pretty bright.

Washington needs to be fought for. I would be very disappointed if we lost it at the end of this year.

 

[David_itl]

Let's go back to the Evening News's "11 amazing destinations you may soon be able to fly to direct from MAN" from July:

Shanghai = signposted for route announcement soon from the recent pro-manchester conference
Delhi = short charter series next year
Mumbai = nothing showing yet
Houston = bookable starting in under 2 weeks with Singapore Airlines
San Diego = featured again a couple of months after that event in the Evening News
Detroit = route not going ahead 2017
Cape Town = shown in some GDS platforms
Johannesburg = nothing showing yet
Addis Ababa = nothing showing yet
Bangkok = the strange promotion by Thai recently in city centre Manchester. No smoke without fire!
Oman = timings and flight numbers known, not yet bookable

Then we need to look at what has come to notice:
Toronto = daily by Rouge, a small increase
Vancouver = hinted at with Air Canada
Mauritius = appearing in some GDS platforms
Sanya = recent article in local press indicated this is a charter route to happen
New York = Times article indicating daily Norwegian 737
Beijing = signposted for frequency announcement soon from the recent pro-manchester conference
"secondary Chinese cities" = flagged by Hainan Airlines

no doubt other prospective routes will appear in due course

 

[EGCC_MAN]

There are some long-haul routes which we tend to rarely think about but which should be borne in mind anyway. These include the possibility of AirBlue rejoining the fray on MAN-ISB, a long-standing ambition if they are able to do so. Also, a possible service to Iran now that relations have improved ... either Mahan Air or Iran Air. And of course a possible return of Iraqi Airways who never wanted to leave MAN in the first place ... those contractors pay well for flights to Iraq. Note that three of the four airlines mentioned here have served MAN before; two of those were forced out by circumstance rather than choice (Mahan, Iraqi), and arguably we'd still have AirBlue if it hadn't been for their doomed initiative to replace A319/A321's with A343 ops. And - not quite long-haul - but I wouldn't be surprised to see an eventual return by Libyan when sufficient stability is established in Tripoli. Finally, there remains a sizeable market from MAN for Bangladesh Biman if the management of that airline can ever get their act together.

Perhaps we as a group are inclined to overlook potential scheduled services to destinations which we wouldn't immediately consider for a holiday!

 

[Borneobob]

If I am not mistaken a while ago it was mentioned that a destination or airline would be announced that would be a "game changer" for Manchester. So what about BA returning to long haul or flights to huge global economic destinations such as Tokyo or Seoul. Just a thought.

 

[ethanegcc]

I do think about ISB but I don't think it would constitute such interest considering we already have two carriers on the route. The other two I wouldn't really class as 'long haul'. However, Biman Bangladesh could be an option, with recent rumours.

 

[Dobbo]

EGCC_MAN makes a good point - there certainly is a bias on here towards "fashionable" routes. Iran is certainly one route that I would expect to see relatively early on in Iran Air's planned expansion.

Borneobob certainly has a number of those destinations in mind - I would love to see a direct flight to Korea/Japan, but I think they might struggle in light of the Beijing and Shanghai flights, which reflects the strength and competition going east. Any return by BA would clearly be a game changer, but there are so many obstacles to this it seems unlikely in the short term (although BA's position seems to have softened this year).

If the VS/DL partnership works out at MAN (which to me is a serious game changer) very little will be off the table.

 

[ethanegcc]

I think Iran Air is extremely well poised to start IKA-MAN flights and Iraqi Airways could now make a return but they don't constitute long haul news for me? Not sure if that is just how I perceived user's post. I don't think Libyan is long haul at all, considering it was operated with a 320. Biman Bangladesh and Iran Air/Mahan Air (who operate to Dus) are in a good position to launch flights.

I think we all wish for routes that make a difference to MAN's standing/flagship destinations e.g. HKG, SFO, LAX etc. These are all world renowned destinations and to have a direct flight to them is superb, however we should look at all possibilities.

BA are extremely unlikely to return, unless this news is in strengthening the IAG/OW presence at MAN (it could be AA or even JL)

VS/DL could expand their JV more in MAN, but with Detroit shelved because of a Brexit rethink, it is unlikely.

TCX has great plans for expansion. CPT, MRU etc. look likely for W17 but would they be announced yet? Probably not.

Thai to BKK has been rumoured for W17 with a 359. Would it be announced yet?

Singapore could go daily again but 'big news' - not really.

For Cathay Pacific - see above.

China Southern have long been rumoured to be investigating the possibility of inaugurating service between CAN and MAN. Apart from the airport codes rhyming, this would be a superb route in my opinion and one I would love to see launched.

Air India - User stated it is nothing to do with Air India, Air China or Hainan.

Jet Airways - could they launch BOM-MAN routes?

Saudia - could they launch 4 weekly RUH-MAN or up Jeddah to daily?

Emirates - could they add a fourth daily MAN 77W? Not really 'route news' though.

Asiana/Korean Air - could they launch ICN? We don't have any Skyteam presence for Asia at the moment and they can make smaller markets like Zagreb work with A330s. Why can't MAN be the same?

Biman Bangladesh - was mentioned for a transit flight a while ago? Previously served MAN.

Ethiopian - on the MAN hitlist, Addis Ababa provides great connections to Africa. Possibility for transit flights?

Air Canada - again Vancouver. Mainline Toronto.

 

[Coathanger16]

The biggest game changer over the last decade has been Low Cost Carriers - there have long been rumours that the likes of Norwegian will start flying long haul from Manchester. Perhaps they are finally announcing something?

 

[ethanegcc]

Possibly announcing MAN-EWR with 737M? Could anymore new routes come with it - BOS? Could they base some 788s here?

On a side note, lonely planet has listed Oman in it's top 10 countries for 2017.

Oman has been the ace in Arabia’s pack for a while, but with more flights than ever before and high-end hotels popping up all over the place, the sultanate looks ready to raise its game yet again. Luxury accommodation, including the award-winning duo of Six Senses on the Musandam Peninsula and Alila in the Hajar Mountains, has long had a foothold here, but glitzy properties from Anantara, Kempinski and other high-end names are also slated to open soon. The burst of construction doesn’t stop there, though – the US$120-million Majarat Oman, a futuristic theme park for families, is set to debut in 2017.

Perhaps this could encourage people to use the new service?

Amidst rumours of Ethiopian service, Ethiopia is also listed and one sentence pops out: 'In 2017 new airline links will make the country more accessible than ever, so be one of the first to hop on board.' Probably no relation at all but the fact that Ethiopia is getting more air services, supports MAN's alibi.

Also, North Wales is in the 'regions' list and MAN acts as a major gateway for this area. With inbound tourism growing thanks to the weakness of the pound sterling, this could bring in some valuable traffic from various locations to MAN.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Just to be clear, my post #650 was a general observation, not an attempt to guess User001's specific teaser. Hence, don't read too much into whether you would personally consider certain routes to be long-haul or not in trying to match up routes mentioned by me with his hint. That was never the point.

Indeed, definitions of this sort can become very blurred anyway. New York - technically medium haul? - is viewed as a long-haul route by most. But we must get beyond the idea of suggesting that a route cannot be considered long-haul because it is operated by a narrow-bodied type. Things are changing fast. And if we were to have B737 equipment flying MAN-EWR (Norwegian) and B737 equipment flying a broadly similar distance to Sulaimaniyah (Iraqi - albeit with a tech-stop), should we be getting hung-up about whether neither, one, or both of these destinations should be considered long-haul? What really matters is securing the services, not worrying about the labels we attach to them. The whole 'long-haul' thing seems to be used by PR people as a badge of prestige, but at an operational level these are just scheduled flights to non-EU destinations.

Finally, post #650 does not label MAN-TIP as a long-haul route. Clearly it isn't, but that's not the point. It is another example of a route suspended for reasons beyond the control of the airline. One which has the potential to be reinstated once Libya has recovered sufficiently from its civil war.

 

[ethanegcc]

Yes, sorry EGCC_Man. I do realise you said that Libyan is not long haul - and I didn't realise you weren't making guesses from User001's teaser! I do agree with you that, myself included, we are all biased to see 'flagship' routes or places we would like to visit/think people would like to visit. I suppose, looking further into it, that IKA is a long haul route. I flew back from BOS in August and it took 5hrs - yet this is classed as long haul as it is transatlantic.

I am not sure I get your point that long haul is any flight to non EU destinations though. Is MAN-ZRH/OSL a long haul route?

User certainly knows how to get this thread talking and put us all on edge!

 

[EGCC_MAN]

I actually didn't offer a definition of what constitutes a long-haul route at all. Certainly, whilst there are no intra-EU long-haul sectors, I never suggested that all flights to anywhere outside the EU are long-haul! That will include MAN-DUB in the near future!

The point I made was that the label is of little consequence at an operational level. Airport PR departments and civic dignitaries love pigeonholing new services in this way for reasons of prestige, but within the terminal all that matters is how the arriving and departing passengers need to be processed. Within specific airlines there are agreements based upon maximum crew hours for rostering / breaks etc., but these are generally applied according to duty time rather than the distance to the destination city or which continent it is located in. An aircraft with a slow cruising speed could take eight hours to cover a route which a B788 could do in four. Is one flying long-haul and the other not?

It is best not to get too hung-up on trying to pigeonhole everything with labels which are subjective.

 

[User001]

While 'flagship' carriers are seen as the crown in the Jewel, one must not under estimate what Thomas Cook are doing for Manchester.

I'm not saying it's anyone on this forum, but, when TCX is mentioned, some still think it is shackled as a 'charter' operator, and more 'low brow' type of service.

What they are doing is nothing short of incredible. To add routes like Los Angeles, San Fransisco, Boston, Miami and the maybe route to San Diego were for MAN quite trail blazing, routes we had wanted for a long time but the mainstream carriers reluctant to do. While Virgin have started doing similar, they are still late to the party compared to TCX, and as long as Norwegian dither on when exactly they may start MAN long haul, the TCX piece of the pie gets ever bigger.

I mean, look at San Diego, if, and obviously given its been pushed back, it is an if they start San Diego, that will be SAN's 4th European route, 4th. No Paris, no Brussels, no Munich, no Amsterdam. That's quite incredible to think if it does come off and no other carrier starts an EU route in between, in amongst some big names in a short list is quite an accolade.

Equally, Cape Town will be a rather cool niche route, again, when it comes to Europe, it's mainly the big hitting airports that get that link, and lastly, when Sanya starts, that will be the ONLY European link, need I say more.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Thomas Cook in its current form is one of the best things to happen to MAN in recent years. The network and trust they have put into Manchester is to be applauded, and probably went some way to stimulating Virgin Atlantic, and after a year or so of no reference to Manchester being in Norwegians long haul plans, I dare say TCX stimulated those guys to do something too!

While other airports have been trying to get even the basic New York links bedded in, or have a limited USA presence, TCX has basically said 'to hell with convention, have a Boston, Los Angeles and Miami flight'.

Seriously, don't underestimate what TCX is doing for Manchester, and the best is yet to come.

 

[Dobbo]

Here here.

 

[Dobbo]

Just a little reminder of where we were almost a year ago, courtesy of the FT. I have taken the livery of putting in bold some of the points I think are of note - but a number of the statements are now out of date.


https://www.ft.com/content/13bfe106-8fba-11e5-8be4-3506bf20cc2b

Manchester airport, the UK’s third busiest, said it could help relieve the pressure on London’s hubs as it carried 23m annual passengers for the first time in its 77-year history.

The landmark was hit on Monday, as the airline industry continued to recover from the financial crisis that began in 2008.

Other UK airports such as Birmingham and Edinburgh have also hit record levels while Manchester has been boosted by extra services to destinations such as Dubai and new routes to the US and Asia.

Ken O’Toole, managing director, believes it could provide an alternative to London as political stalemate continues over whether to build a new runway at Heathrow, Gatwick or not at all.

“For 15-20 years there is going to be no capacity increase in the south-east. We are going to have to make best use of the capacity we have,” he said.

Some 22m live within two hours of the airport and its station was recently upgraded. Faster rail links to the north of Manchester are coming as part of the £600m Northern Hub improvements.

It is the only airport outside Heathrow to have two runways and serves more destinations — 210.

But some 4m a year leave its catchment area to use London airports and Heathrow remains its single most popular flight.

Heathrow serves 180 destinations in 90 countries, 75 of which are unique in the UK. Two-thirds of the top UK companies have headquarters within 25 miles of the airport, providing demand for lucrative business class flights.

Dubai is the most popular destination from Manchester with 847,000 passengers. Dublin is second.

Manchester recently announced it would be the first airport outside London to have a scheduled flight to Beijing, starting next year. Birmingham has a summer charter to the Chinese capital.

Now that Air China has filed for permission to fly to Shanghai. Cathay Pacific’s four times a week service to Hong Kong could soon be daily, it said, as it was 90 per cent full.

Mr O’Toole said low-cost carriers such as Ryanair and EasyJet were responsible for much of the growth but a growing range of long-haul destinations had also helped.

“Our view is that the future potential of Manchester airport is really strong. You can start to see a real momentum and drive to continue to grow and serve the 22m people that live within two hours of the airport and see Manchester as their airport.”

He said several more routes would be viable if travel times around the north improved as part of the government’s Northern Powerhouse scheme.

“If we can combine the volume from Liverpool, Leeds, Manchester and Newcastle you get to a tipping point where routes become viable.” He said San Francisco, Dallas, Bangkok, Mumbai and Johannesburg could all be possible within a few years.

Manchester, still majority owned by the region’s 10 local councils, is starting services to Los Angeles and Boston next year with Thomas Cook.

It is also spending £1bn to improve facilities. Its three terminals will be reduced to two with greater shopping and leisure space. The new configuration will allow two giant A380s, used by Emirates, to pass each other.

Passengers are growing at 5 per cent a year after a low of 17m after the recession. Other regional airports are growing even more quickly. Data compiled by the Centre for Aviation, a consultancy, show that in the year to October, Glasgow grew 13.7 per cent and Edinburgh, 9.1 per cent to hit 10m passengers.

David Bentley, an analyst at the centre, said Manchester’s growth was below its peers.

“There just isn’t the volume of first class business travellers. We will know it is really working when British Airways comes back,” he said.

He said many regional airports, such as Newcastle, would rather support connecting routes to Amsterdam and Heathrow rather than long haul from Manchester.

Manchester Airports Group (MAG) has grabbed a slice of the south-east market by buying Stansted in 2013. The Essex airport is growing 15 per cent a year as Ryanair expands, hitting 20m passengers. MAG sold a 35.5 per cent stake in the combined group to IFM Investors, an Australian infrastructure fund, to support the acquisition.

The Airport Commission, chaired by Sir Howard Davies forecast Manchester would have 26m passengers annually by 2020, with 33m by 2030.

 

[David_itl]

So we have 3 years to get 1 million pax to hit the Commission forecast. With 2% growth being 500,000 pax, i'd say around 27 million passengers is a nice target.

 

[Land23R]

Well Davies was miles out with his Gatwick forecast, so it would be a shock if he got MAN's right.

Just wonder - he mused hopefully - if the Airport are storing up a series of good news stories to be released one by one but over a fairly short period (User suggested the 2 China stories would be announced separately for maximum effect).
The 25 million can't be far off as well - perhaps the lucky person will take off to Houston on Sunday.

 

[ethanegcc]

While 'flagship' carriers are seen as the crown in the Jewel, one must not under estimate what Thomas Cook are doing for Manchester.

I'm not saying it's anyone on this forum, but, when TCX is mentioned, some still think it is shackled as a 'charter' operator, and more 'low brow' type of service.

What they are doing is nothing short of incredible. To add routes like Los Angeles, San Fransisco, Boston, Miami and the maybe route to San Diego were for MAN quite trail blazing, routes we had wanted for a long time but the mainstream carriers reluctant to do. While Virgin have started doing similar, they are still late to the party compared to TCX, and as long as Norwegian dither on when exactly they may start MAN long haul, the TCX piece of the pie gets ever bigger.

I mean, look at San Diego, if, and obviously given its been pushed back, it is an if they start San Diego, that will be SAN's 4th European route, 4th. No Paris, no Brussels, no Munich, no Amsterdam. That's quite incredible to think if it does come off and no other carrier starts an EU route in between, in amongst some big names in a short list is quite an accolade.

Equally, Cape Town will be a rather cool niche route, again, when it comes to Europe, it's mainly the big hitting airports that get that link, and lastly, when Sanya starts, that will be the ONLY European link, need I say more.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Thomas Cook in its current form is one of the best things to happen to MAN in recent years. The network and trust they have put into Manchester is to be applauded, and probably went some way to stimulating Virgin Atlantic, and after a year or so of no reference to Manchester being in Norwegians long haul plans, I dare say TCX stimulated those guys to do something too!

While other airports have been trying to get even the basic New York links bedded in, or have a limited USA presence, TCX has basically said 'to hell with convention, have a Boston, Los Angeles and Miami flight'.

Seriously, don't underestimate what TCX is doing for Manchester, and the best is yet to come.

Flybe could do well codesharing onto SAN and CPT then. Particularly from places like DUS and even AMS, who don't even have a link to LAS. Are you suggesting the long haul expansion you state originally is to do with Thomas Cook or just referring to CPT, MRU, Sanya when you say 'the best is yet to come'