Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Dobbo]

Yes I agree - I will add the Emirates A380 news in now.
When you see the long haul route network on paper also, for a small nation's third largest airport - pretty impressive!

I'm not sure I particularly endorse the sentiment of this.

Yes, MAN is very much third in the pecking order, but the UK is by no means an economically small country (despite recent events) and the catchment area of MAN covers at least 2 of the largest and richest city regions in Europe. With greater connectivity across the north and an increased focus away from the South East this position may continue to improve.

Quite frankly, there are a lot of reasons to expect recent trends to continue over the next 5-10 years...

 

[ethanegcc]

Yes, I meant small geographically and only 2hr away from London and the mega base that is LHR.

 

[Dobbo]

I hope so! I would also hope they may consider 3x SEA, 3x LAX as there is a lot of relations between MAN and SEA as well as business traffic and there is an extremely large DL feed from both these airports, unlike MIA.

Perhaps, but if AC get MAN-YVR and seek to tap into that market they may get a leg up on any plans VS have to operate SEA-MAN. I've not heard much on VS/DL for some time, aside from the postponement of DTW. I assume the overall plan from MAN has not changed, but they may now be seeking more reliance on the inbound US market, which may be harder to stimulate. Again, I think a wider northern marketing campaign could be well used here.

Personally, I expect LAX to be the next west coast destination to see a full service carrier (at the risk of doing TCX a disservice) launch from MAN.

 

[ethanegcc]

I do hope AC commit to YVR-MAN but would like it to be mainline - however unlikely.

I think the next logical step for VS is LAX and also to benefit from the feed of DL. I am surprised this didn't come before SFO to be honest. VS are much better placed to attract more inbound tourism than TCX with their full service philosophy and strong partnership with DL and brand recognition. The low value of the pound could do them favours if they promote their services to MAN on the other side of the atlantic.

I do think the tourism market in the north has grown and a surprising number of Chinese/Americans do arrive to see the lake district. AA's website also has a travel guide from Manchester, marketing it as a gateway to northern wales, aside from the English attractions.

 

[Dobbo]

I was surprised as well. I don't know what the rationale of picking SFO over LAX was, but the stated aim was to connect the tech industries of the north with its global centre (i.e. Palo Alto). I don't know what sort of brand Virgin have in the US. I think Virgin America is recognisable, but perhaps not for the right reasons.

To be honest, if there was any time to develop inbound tourism, now is that time (but for full service business traffic is key). The UK has not been this cheap for a long time, and whilst the information indicates that the Chinese markets (particularly Hainan) has performed well on inbound traffic but the same cannot be said for inbound American traffic. It is probably needed as the expansion of American routes and weakening of the pound against the dollar will probably weaken the yield on UK originating traffic.

I think there is a fair chance AC could launch YVR and YYZ. They are expanding their fleet and if they wish to add capacity into the UK, MAN seems like the logical option if they cannot get into LHR.

 

[ethanegcc]

Virgin Atlantic does have very strong recognition in the US and for many Americans I have spoken to, feel it is their 'go to' airline when travelling to the UK, even though BA has more destinations.

 

[Land23R]

A talk at TAS by a senior manager of MAN (may have been a director) about 3 years ago showed a combined list of the most unserved and under-served long haul routes from MAN. At that time, SFO was 5th and LAX was15th. I wonder whether or not that has changed in the meantime. I don't recall the potential pax numbers quoted.

Out of interest, the 3 that followed SFO were Mumbai, Delhi and Shanghai.

 

[ethanegcc]

To add to my developments list;
Air Transat - increase on Manchester - Vancouver
Air Transat will increase their YVR route to three weekly, after no expansion for an extremely long time. A330 operation. Perhaps as a result of promising loads this summer or citing an AC launch?

 

[Dobbo]

Worth looking back at this...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ets-25-more-long-haul-routes-led-by-air-china

 

[Land23R]

I wonder if Ken O'Toole would make those same comments now, nearly 12 months later, if he reads articles like this?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...pound-slide-liberates-uk-from-malign-grip-of/

To some of these 'economic experts', it seems jobs in the UK aviation industry count for little against jobs in manufacturing. I suppose a cheap pound, if long term, will encourage people from abroad to travel to the UK, often on foreign airlines, but many into our super global hub when LHR gets its 3rd runway. Until then, although no doubt slots will miraculously be found for some carriers at LHR, the various marketing organisations for Manchester and the North West, together with the airport, need to pull out all the stops to make sure MAN is firmly on the map as an entry airport of choice for visitors and of course airlines.

However, I feel high expectations for 2017 now need to be modified somewhat. There will hopefully still be gains but regrettably probably some losses also, or planned developments that get cancelled.

 

[Dobbo]

I'm not so sure.

The potential inbound market (I.e. The whole world aside from the UK) is far larger than the outbound market (I.e. MAN's catchment area).

The weaker pound makes MAN more competetive (cheaper) to the inbound market and that *should* stimulate demand.

 

[Land23R]

You're right Dobbo, but taking the US as an obvious example, which airport are Americans most likely to fly into?
And even if they decide, and can be encouraged, to fly into MAN, which airlines are they more likely to choose?
TCX may be cheaper but can they attract sufficient bookings from the States? Virgin have a better chance in my view because of the Delta links.

China and the Middle East perhaps look better bets while on short haul, Ryanair, easyjet and Norwegian may well bring in more foreign visitors. So I'm not saying it's all doom and gloom but I do feel 2017 will be a bumpier ride than at one time we thought it would be. Don't forget that Charlie Cornish in one article acknowledged that he was expecting growth to fall to 2% before picking up again. Mind you, 2% is still growth but not of the magnitude we were perhaps hoping for and expecting.

If I'm reading the figures correctly, it would seem the pound has been more stable against the Canadian dollar over the last year or two although down a couple of cents in recent days. Let's see if those AC/Rouge rumours are true as it's possible UK folk, if they want to fly across the pond for vacations, may switch to Canada instead, although I don't know how prices for hotels, restaurants and fuel over there compare to the US.

Edit: I'm wrong about the CAN$. Looking at a different and clearer chart, 12 months ago, the rate was Can$2 to the £ and the rate started falling after January this year. Its now just under 1.63 so a 18% devaluation. Get those Canadians over here!

The downside to a cheaper currency is rising import costs for goods we can't or won't manufacture, inflation, likely interest rate rises (bad for families with mortgages, good for savers) less disposable income for many etc. There is another factor - the accusation of "rip-off" Britain has some merit imo.
Foreign visitors coming here and spending money in our hotels, restaurants, shops, concert halls and pubs is great for Britain. But I wonder what will happen to those London hotel prices etc. for our own UK tourists when those foreign visitors arrive in greater numbers with the extra buying power their currency provides. Price hikes maybe! So, if it's more expensive to holiday in our own country, perhaps we will still go abroad after all.

Apologies for going off topic somewhat.

 

[David_itl]

Hello hello what do i see here? https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...en-both-countries-in-boost-for-global-britain

 

[User001]

MAN is going to see some very quick movement on this, as early as next week by all accounts!

 

[Land23R]

You two beat me to it. Does the 1 route / 1 airline rule still apply or has that been lifted as well. I wasn't sure from reading the press release.

 

[User001]

The 1/1 rules still applies but I can tell you now, 7 of those new slots will be snapped up immediately!

 

[Dobbo]

That is a lot of change to download and process! Crikey!

 

[David_itl]

Probably not. I fancy in the region of 14 to 16 weekly flights being added over the next couple of years assuming the economy doesn't go pear shaped

 

[Land23R]

What's the betting some slots will be found at LHR as well!

I'm guessing Air China may finally announce MAN if they can get the slots at PVG. HU going daily or another destination in China?

 

[Dobbo]

It's probably safe to say that Shanghai (Air China) is the next "cab off the rank" as far as MAN is concerned.

We also know about Hainan wanting to increase Beijing to daily.

I expect these are likely to be the most immediate beneficiaries, but the previously mooted routes below may be back on the table:

• HU: XAN - MAN
• CA: CDU-MAN
• CZ: GZU-MAN

Worth noting that (I believe) this does not affect traffic rights to/from Hong Kong.