Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Borneobob]

Reading the article in the MEN about the efforts the airport are putting in, to make Manchester the most welcoming for Chinese passengers, wouldn't it be possible to do the same for potential visitors from South Korea and Japan. If direct services could be secured to these countries.
Manchester could be an ideal gateway into the UK for people arriving from these countries with the northwest's great sport and music scene, very much loved by people from Asia, as well as having relatively easy access to the National Parks and Scotland amongst other things.
What do the more enlightened members of the forum think?

 

[ethanegcc]

I think this is a great idea. Considering KE have launched charter flights to GLA, they could launch scheduled MAN flights, with this initiative, codesharing with BE for MAN-UK domestic flights/Scotland (as they currently have no partner in LHR) and have a larger market for UK origination. As I have pointed out, North Wales is a top 10 region as stated by lonely planet, of which MAN is the main gateway, the Lake District, Yorkshire Moors, Peak District are all extremely close, visits to Liverpool, Leeds, York etc. are close and MAN actually makes visiting anywhere in the UK much more desirable because it is in the middle!

If only South Korea or Japan could be secured...!

 

[Borneobob]

These countries along with China surely hold huge potential in terms of business and tourism from both sides, especially post Brexit and for the success of the so called "Northern Powerhouse", and maybe it's just a case of "If we build it they will come" ?

 

[User001]

Hainan/Tianjin/Beijing Capital have just applied for a raft of new London routes (9 in total)

Of note, Xi'an and Changsha, both of which had been rumoured for Manchester given lack of decent London slots.

Seems that once again, increase in bilateral means London, London and, Erm, London.....

 

[Comet]

When I heard about the increase in the bilateral I thought this would spell trouble for MAN and any other non London airport. Before the change the flights available for take up were all for non London airports. Apart from the HU MAN-PEK flights none were taken up which concerned me despite the rumours.

I think the airlines knew of the coming change and have been holding back and this is the result. However they need to find the slots at LHR and LGW. However these always seem to come available when required despite the airports being full. Also of concern is the fact that MAG have been boasting about possible flights to China from STN for some while. This would open the door for these and the the announcement by Charlie Cornish could have applied to STN rather than MAN

With the change in the bilateral I think the increase in HU flights and PVG and anywhere else starting are now looking unlikely to happen

 

[Dobbo]

Slight change of tact!

I would say getting Beijing and Shanghai to daily is the most immediate priority. With Guangzhou up next.

Secondary cities will plainly fall down the pecking order for now and can follow in due course.

 

[User001]

Comet,

The increase in Beijing and the route to Shanghai will still happen. Both sound bytes have been since the increase to the bilateral.

Beijing-MAN has been one of the most successful long haul China route launches in recent years, the increase in bilaterals won't change that.

 

[ethanegcc]

Comet,

The increase in Beijing and the route to Shanghai will still happen. Both sound bytes have been since the increase to the bilateral.

Beijing-MAN has been one of the most successful long haul China route launches in recent years, the increase in bilaterals won't change that.

It is amazing just how successful MAN-PEK has seemed to be. Apparently these have both been secured and simply awaiting a press conference. This is still the case User - I presume? Any idea when they will be announced and ultimately begin?

I think now daily PEK and 4 weekly PVG are ticked off, the next hurdle will be CZ to Guangzhou and then maybe a PVG increase. I never really thought Changsha would be in line for a MAN service, but Xi'an would've been good but, hey-ho.

 

[Land23R]

Do I take it X'ian is a non-starter because Tianjin Airlines is part of the Hainan Group?

 

[Comet]

Comet,

The increase in Beijing and the route to Shanghai will still happen. Both sound bytes have been since the increase to the bilateral.

Beijing-MAN has been one of the most successful long haul China route launches in recent years, the increase in bilaterals won't change that.

I can no longer share your optimism User although as always I hope I am wrong. There were plenty of sound bytes a while back about flights to China as you say but I don't think I have heard any recently by anyone connected to MAN at least any that are in the Public domain.

Lets face it the flights to PVG were supposed to have started by now based on previous post by many posters but so far there has been no announcement whatsoever of even an intention to start them never mind an actual start date.

The PEK launch was as you say apparently one of the most successful ones recently. So was the CX to HKG come to that. What we don't know as you will well know is despite the load factors what the returns are like.If they were as equally good then I would expect CX and HU to go daily as soon as they can but as yet no clue if or when this will be just rumours.

 

[User001]

Comet:

I can assure you there have been several public sound bytes about Hainan wanting to go daily now the bilateral has changed.

Gao Leqi, general manager of Hainan Airlines Manchester branch, told China Daily the carrier will look at increasing the frequency of its Manchester to Beijing flights

This is just the first one I found in the few seconds it took to search, I know there were others too.

Also, at the China Forum last week, it was made quite clear that Shanghai was very much in for a March 2017 start, just because that byte has not made the public domain does not make it less true.

When you look at the information regarding new routes I have put forward, you should see it is not blind optimism, but well placed sources.

 

[Land23R]

I've read or heard recently that although BA were getting good loads in the summer on their Chengdu flights, in the winter they were pretty dire. I think there was comment that bookings until the end of October on HU from MAN were very strong. Do we know how they are looking over the winter months?

As regards yields, I'm not aware of heavily discounted deals in J class on CX from MAN and I gather loads in the premium seats have been good overall. Don't know about fares on HU but a few Saturday morning visits to T2 have seen decent numbers checking in for Business Class, including a few who looked like students.

 

[ethanegcc]

Yes, some loads were around 20/30% for BA's LHR-CTU in the winter season - pretty dire, but PEK and PVG are different markets.

I continue to hold out hope for PVG and PEK - just wish the official announcement could come sooner so it is all very much concrete.

 

[Coathanger16]

Hainan/Tianjin/Beijing Capital have just applied for a raft of new London routes (9 in total)

Of note, Xi'an and Changsha, both of which had been rumoured for Manchester given lack of decent London slots.

Seems that once again, increase in bilateral means London, London and, Erm, London.....

Any idea which London airports?

 

[rutamkrd]

I have to say none of those three routes impresses me in the least, even when someone on netters states they are each a third bigger than London in population.

They remain a magnitude less value or economically active than many much smaller European cities in fact.
I think the Tianjin routes is simply scheduling up the existing 2 weekly quasi charters already operating into Gatwick with a intermediate point change.

To-date the Beijing Capital brand is pretty much a Chinese Thomas Cook airline attached to a tour operator business model.
They operate this brand to Copenhagen and Madrid pretty much packed with vacationers.

This announcement only covers a sum total of 9 slot pairs of what is it 100 or so available and all fit the Gatwick model.

I don't think we need to go into a group depression over this right now, and anyway all we really need is the Hainan to go daily and Air China to release Shanghai pretty soon.

Future Guangzhou can follow in 18 month or so.

To be fair I don't get that excited by much of the hyperbole around the Chinese growth to be honest.

However would like to see the Cathay service go at least the 6 weekly - i have used it twice now (Yep from Ringway and not from Heathrow - just 8 miles from home !) as i have a business based in Kent and in Sharston.

You know I say 6 weekly rather than daily because to be honest Saturday departure/Sunday arrivals aren't so useful for business travel - Cepting if your going to the Middle East or Malaysia in my experience.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Take your point about 6x weekly, but I'd look to daily Cathay. The Sat dep / Sun arr option is actually the best for families and VFR because they can travel after completing a working week, so leisure demand can be at its strongest. One thing I've noticed up here as well is how many people are prepared to book business class seats for themselves (as opposed to being paid for by a business). It's not something I'd do, but I have several friends who routinely book upgraded products for travel to the UAE, Far East and North America from MAN. Some won't entertain flying long-haul in economy at all.

 

[rutamkrd]

One thing I've noticed up here as well is how many people are prepared to book business class seats for themselves (as opposed to being paid for by a business). It's not something I'd do, but I have several friends who routinely book upgraded products for travel to the UAE, Far East and North America from MAN. Some won't entertain flying long-haul in economy at all.

I wouldn't pay to upgrade (out of my own pocket so to speak) when on business - either client pays even if its built into the products being traded or the travel is charged through the business account - Gotta get the tax liability in order !

 

[Land23R]

This announcement only covers a sum total of 9 slot pairs of what is it 100 or so available and all fit the Gatwick model.

I don't think we need to go into a group depression over this right now, and anyway all we really need is the Hainan to go daily and Air China to release Shanghai pretty soon.

As I understand it, the increase in the new bilateral is 60 slot pairs, so you are right, the 9 applied for still leaves another 51. I expect some of those could be taken up with additional frequencies to/from London but there should still be plenty to fill.

Can someone clarify what was included in the original 40 slot pairs re MAN? I thought that as Air China had got approval for 4 x weekly flights to MAN that they were covered in the old bilateral. Is that correct? I'm not sure though about the 3 extra slots HU would need to go daily.

 

[User001]

I believe in the old bilateral there was just 1 slot left that had not been reserved by a carrier, hence the flight could not start. Both the DfT and CAAC had agreed that Air China could hold the license to MAN-PVG, but just couldn't start it due to the bilateral and the lack of decent slots in PVG (both now resolved or very close to being resolved).

There are various good news sources that Air China intend to start in March, the story was also repeated in the China forum conference, and speaking to staff at LHR, work will soon start to allow the flights, which will be sourcing staff and tenders for services.

Again, to re-iterate what I've said before, Just because nothing has been made public yet doesn't mean nothing is happening. So much happens behind the scenes before announcements.

It's also worth noting in the last few long haul route launches by Air China, the lead in time has been weeks, not months, including PEK-WAW which was about 3-4 weeks IIRC, so, don't panic, things are moving.

 

[ethanegcc]

I believe in the old bilateral there was just 1 slot left that had not been reserved by a carrier, hence the flight could not start. Both the DfT and CAAC had agreed that Air China could hold the license to MAN-PVG, but just couldn't start it due to the bilateral and the lack of decent slots in PVG (both now resolved or very close to being resolved).

There are various good news sources that Air China intend to start in March, the story was also repeated in the China forum conference, and speaking to staff at LHR, work will soon start to allow the flights, which will be sourcing staff and tenders for services.

Again, to re-iterate what I've said before, Just because nothing has been made public yet doesn't mean nothing is happening. So much happens behind the scenes before announcements.

It's also worth noting in the last few long haul route launches by Air China, the lead in time has been weeks, not months, including PEK-WAW which was about 3-4 weeks IIRC, so, don't panic, things are moving.

It is great to hear this reassurance, although announcing these flights is a major publicity boost and Hainan could do with making daily flights bookable for a soon-as-possible start. Any idea when a daily HU schedule would ensue User?

Yes, I agree, Chinese Airlines' lead in times are usually extremely short. As you point out, PEK-WAW and MSQ was one and more recently, Sichuan Airlines CTU-HGH-LAX flights were made bookable less than two weeks before they launched. However, with a smaller airport, like MAN (in terms of Chinese links anyway), I think that a longer lead in time is needed. I think the latest possible announcement could be Jan, but this is prime route development season. Hopefully the daily Toronto will lead into a longer season and YVR also - any update on that front?