Route Development & Rumours

[Coathanger16]

Story in Anna Aero today that with the Cathay's announcement of new routes to Dublin, Copenhagen and Brussels Birmingham is now the second biggest unserved route between HKG and Europe.

Maybe BHX will be in the next round of Cathay route announcements?

http://www.anna.aero/2017/09/01/cathay-pacific-airways-announces-service-brussels-copenhagen-dublin/

Whats the biggest unserved route between HKG and Europe?

Also recently Hong Kong Airlines received their first A350 which they will use to fly to Los Angeles. Could BHX be on their radar?

 

[TM3]

Geneva will be the biggest unserved route after these 3 start, then BHX, as I understand based on passengers flying BHX - HKG with a stop somewhere else - so leakage to LHR would not be included in that.

HK Airlines are starting London, NYC and San Fran http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...lines-adds-major-new-routes-new-threat-cathay

I would guess they would go to the big markets first but who knows. Personally I'd prefer Cathay and I would use it too.

 

[Coathanger16]

Personally I'd prefer Cathay

So would I. Just wondering which would be more likely to serve BHX. Cathay already serve Heathrow, Gatwick and Manchester, whilst Hong Kong Airlines is new to the UK.

 

[IanFarquharson]

BHX RD Team are regularly in the Far East including in HKG.
I think they are aiming to attract HK Airlines rather than Cathay.
I would love to see either !

 

[David_itl]

Hopefully if they come back to Britain, it will do a lot better than their first foray which was to LGW when then operated on daily basis using A330s from March to September 2012 but with it configured to just 112 passengers!

 

[nwoody2001]

Well HK airlines looks like it wants to set up a LH network to feed into its SH network. If HK airlines co do this successfully, I certainly wouldn't turn them away from BHX!

 

[David_itl]

Just had a random thought. Would anyone object to CX or Hong Kong Airlines operating daily but with the routing HKG-GVA-BHX-GVA-HKG instead of operating 3 or 4 weekly non-stop? Especially if CX were to gain 5th freedom rights for the GVA-BHX-GVA sector as well. 4 weekly A350 equates to 116,000 seats, a daily service would go to 204,000 seats. GVA+BHX combined is more than 80,000 without taking into account surface leakage. Then add in the connections and we're then talking the A350 arriving in HKG with perhaps as many as 150,000 to 160,000 passengers. (I'd love to know how many people from the West Midlands do head down to LHR).

 

[Ray Finkle]

Would anyone object to CX or Hong Kong Airlines operating daily but with the routing HKG-GVA-BHX-GVA-HKG instead of operating 3 or 4 weekly non-stop?

I can't say that I would be too bothered if it went via Geneva.

Getting the airline in is the tricky bit, if it takes a double drop to make it happen then I'm all for it. Once they're in and settled there is always scope to go direct in the future should the route prove it's worth, stopping in MUC never seemed to harm SQ from MAN.

 

[David_itl]

That's what made me wonder. CX in their first endeavour at MAN operated via FRA, CDG, AMS and ZRH at various times to HKG with 5th freedom rights but that was over 15 years ago which meant that there would have been a lot of empirical evidence for them to get from various channels before launching the non-stop route.

I just can't see the reasoning for DUB getting a new non-stop route if there's only around 3,000 passengers more per year than BHX, especially with the relative ease of access for a potential Hong Kong passenger to get down to LHR to get onto 2 BA A380s, 5 CX 77Ws and a VS 789 (or a trickle on to the MAN service) in addition to anyone flying over AMS/CDG/FRA/DXB. Unless there is really a significant potential uptake in J class at DUB compared to BHX?

 

[Coathanger16]

Would anyone object to CX or Hong Kong Airlines operating daily but with the routing HKG-GVA-BHX-GVA-HKG instead of operating 3 or 4 weekly non-stop

As Ray has pointed out, this is similar to how Singapore started out at Manchester - now look how Singapore are doing there. As long as people use the service rather than continue to go via LHR/MAN or route via a hub (Europe/Middle East), it shouldn't be a problem. The challenge will be convincing people to use it.

3,000 passengers more per year than BHX

Where have these figures come from? Would be interesting to take a look.

 

[rollo]

Problem with CX is the same old one in that Birmingham /midlands will be feeding their LHR hub and MAN to a lesser extent so
presumably Hong Kong Airlines would be the better bet.

Happens on many long haul routes, there will be a steady stream of cars heading up the M6 right now destination Florida as I write but I might have mentioned that before.

 

[David_itl]

those figures are from TM3's post linking to the Anna Aero analyisis which states it's "OAG Schedules Analyser data.".

Now if a leading airline is after "long, thin" routes, which other airlines are thinking the same? Having 25m to 30m in the BHX catchment area should mean that there ought to be better prospects for success if the numbers of passengers flying indirectly is broadly the same between airports competing for a particular airline

 

[TM3]

It's my understanding that the figures in the Anna Aero article relate to past bookings - so 52 passengers each day start their journey at BHX and end it at HKG and the other way around. All with a stop somewhere else as no direct flight is available.

This doesn't include leakage to other airports so it doesn't include people in the catchment area who are traveling between the Midlands and HKG but fly from Manchester or London.

The other thing that is interesting to me is that 48% of the people doing that journey from BHX fly on Emirates, which is nowhere near the best route for that journey.

"From Birmingham, Emirates is the leading carrier for connecting traffic, with it flying 48% of indirect passengers between the UK’s second city and Hong Kong"

So if CX started a daily service, for simplicity and they charged the same as the existing players they would probably pick up 50 pax straight away from other airlines + some new travelers who we only going because the route existed.

On top of that they would pick up passengers going to other airports, some of those would be their own pax but they could also be flying with BA or Virgin or in the future HK Airlines.

Plus CX is feeding its own hub so they would also take some passengers, not included in the 52PDEW going to other destinations, like those flying on the kangaroo route with EK or to other destinations in SE Asia and China.

 

[Ray Finkle]

For those on Facebook, Hong Kong Airlines are asking which destinations in Europe and the USA people would like to see added. I've posted the Anna Aero article but it would be great if a few more people could promote Birmingham to them.

As we know Hong Kong Airlines were specifically mentioned in that picture Tweeted by BHX, I hope that we are being considered

 

[Brum X]

For those on Social Media, Hong Kong Airlines are asking which destinations in Europe and the USA people would like to see added. I've posted the Anna Aero article but it would be great if a few more people could promote Birmingham to them.

As we know Hong Kong Airlines were specifically mentioned in that picture Tweeted by BHX, I hope that we are being considered

I'm doing it now Ray, people need to promote Birmingham and BHX as much as possible.

 

[Coathanger16]

Good or bad news for a Hong Kong to Birmingham service?

https://www.businesstraveller.com/b...irlines-eyeing-london-new-york-san-francisco/

"Hong Kong Airlines has its sights set on opening new routes to London, New York and San Francisco next year, now that the first of its new A350 aircraft has joined its fleet."

"Additional European and American destinations are expected to be added next year alongside London, New York and San Francisco, though no specific timeline has yet been specified for the routes."

Clearly London, New York and San Francisco are big markets that can cope with an additional airline operating a route that other airlines already do, but after those main destinations could HKA look to currently unserved routes?

 

[Ray Finkle]

Those destinations may be in line for services on their new A350's as they arrive?

This article in June suggested that the A350's will be deployed to major destinations with the A330's then used for 'secondary destinations' in Europe. My concern is that they could be yet another airline that considers Birmingham well in the catchment area of any London service and will ignore us as a result.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/a...ines-details-widebody-fleet-expansion-438053/

"The A350s will be deployed to major sectors around the world, but we will also grow in parallel with the [existing] A330 fleet, as we have done with Auckland and Vancouver," he says

He adds that the carrier is looking particularly to use the existing widebody fleet of nine A330-200s and nine A330-300s to open up secondary destinations in Europe.

 

[nwoody2001]

Well we know for a fact that BHX are targeting HK Airlines, so hopefully the London Plans have always been part of those discussions. If HK Airlines are keen on being a true competitor to Cathey, then they will need to serve the UK outside of London, and BHX is the obvious candidate.

time will tell I suppose but worth keeping an ear out I think. If you look at airlines with Hainan, these airlines offer the true game-changing opportunities as they seem removed from the business models associated with the traditional flag carriers....

 

[IanFarquharson]

Pprune rumour of Cathay going to 777's at Gatwick and possibly double daily !

 

[TM3]

In order for the route to work it needs a certain amount of hub traffic beyond the HKG, this is the same reason DXB works.

For that reason I can't see it being a success for HK Airlines if they started it as they don't really have large enough network and they aren't a member of any recognised alliance.

As such I could only see it working for CX or another airline who had a comprehensive codeshare with them.

Likewise I couldn't see SIN working unless it was operated by SQ or Atlanta working unless it was operated by Delta or Virgin.

I could see CX increasing the number of seats at LGW as that flight went daily really quickly - it would also show they weren't that worried about cannibalising traffic from LHR.