Route Development & Rumours

[nwoody2001]

In order for the route to work it needs a certain amount of hub traffic beyond the HKG, this is the same reason DXB works.

For that reason I can't see it being a success for HK Airlines if they started it as they don't really have large enough network and they aren't a member of any recognised alliance.

As such I could only see it working for CX or another airline who had a comprehensive codeshare with them.

Likewise I couldn't see SIN working unless it was operated by SQ or Atlanta working unless it was operated by Delta or Virgin.

I could see CX increasing the number of seats at LGW as that flight went daily really quickly - it would also show they weren't that worried about cannibalising traffic from LHR.

But don't forget, HK Airlines does have a Hub at Hong Kong, in fact it's pretty massive. HK Airlines themselves have a fleet of over 30 aircraft covering massive swathes of the Far East as well as Australia and the American West Coast with nearly 50 routes out of HK. These routes also benefit from nearly 20 codeshare partners.

http://www.hongkongairlines.com/en_CN/flight/information/routemap

So I grant you that HK Airlines might might be as widely known in the west as the likes of Cathey, but for an airport like with BHX which currently has no scheduled service to China, it could be an amazing opportunity for the Chinese population in the Midlands.

 

[TM3]

Currently it's about demonstrating there is enough demand to fill around 200 seats on an aircraft for 4 or 5 days a week. Cathay will always be able to do this before HK Airlines.

I think we've seen that Hainan are "talking to BHX" about routes before and it pretty much came to nothing but they did open routes at MAN and London. IMO it's more about HNA playing off UK airports against each other for a better deal.

HK will open routes to Europe but they'll start at the biggest markets first, London, Paris, Amsterdam etc., once they are there they will discount tickets against CX to get market share. I don't see them starting with a thin route like BHX, and if they do it might fail which makes it more difficult to get an established airline in.

In my opinion this is where BHX are getting their route strategy wrong, you can't jump the queue to the world's big hub destinations by getting an "alternative" airline operating the route, you need the big airline and the hub. BHX-DXB wouldn't have worked if it was operated by any airline other than Emirates.

 

[nwoody2001]

I don't think anyone is suggesting that CX would be more high-profile that HK Airways, and yes, I think many (including BHX) would prefer CX over HK.

i also don't dispute that new and expanding airlines fly to their biggest markets first. We know this is the case and we know they WILL be offering flights to London, Paris etc. To my mind, BHX is not trying to be this route. What BHX is trying to do, and rightly so, is market itself as a good secondary point of access which will offer competition to competitors but with such a large catchment has great potential.

I also agree that Dubai would would unless anyone else but Emirates flew it, but there are now other international hubs at Dubai, there is however at Hong Kong!

So lets take the HK Airlines example.

Look at Manchester. They currently have 2 routes into china beyond the MEB3 (which often aren't that convenient). Cathey Via Hong Kong and Hainan Via Beijing. Birmingham currently has neither.

HK Airlines has a large hub at Hong Kong. It is also owner by Hainan. Now, Manchester already has an existing relationship with Hainan so that may well benefit them. However, we have 2 scenarios.

Scenario 1 - HK Airlines go to MAN. The offer direct competition on the same route from Cathey AND they will likely eat into their own Chinese market which currently uses the Hainan service to Beijing. Now maybe MAN can handle that, that is not for me to say but this is risk here.

Scenario 2 - HK Airlines to BHX. The have the route not only to Hong Kong but wider china all to themselves. They will have a captive audience to focus on. They will be far enough away from their interests at LHR/LGW and MAN not to be in direct competition on their Beijing Routes but will be close enough to be able to capture the HK market currently leaking to LHR and MAN who use Cathey. From a biased but logic armchair aviation enthusiast, i think BHX poses a pretty compelling offer!

Now i am no expert, but i think the strategy at BHX is strong and compelling but is housed within a competitive market. As i've said before, BHX isn't only competing with MAN, but is competing with 20-30 other similar sized airports across Europe. It needs to focus on those BIG un/under-served markets which we know their is a captive market for in the midlands but which are lost to competitors. Yes that includes obvious ones such as Orlando, New York, Las Vegas and LA, but also key eastern locations such as Hong Kong, Beijing, Mumbai and Bangkok!

 

[Ray Finkle]

I can see the point and I think that we'd all prefer the main carrier on any route but sometimes beggars can't be choosers.

Route development takes a huge amount of time, especially long haul. It could be 7-10 years before BHX were able to get a firm commitment from Cathay, if we're talking that length of time then LHR expansion could also become a potential barrier.

Hong Kong Airlines are expanding now, they're getting new aircraft and have said that they are interested in secondary points within Europe. Birmingham fits their mould perfectly, a significant amount of demand with no direct competition. I'm sure that HKA would be only too pleased to potentially capture passengers currently using competitor airlines out of Heathrow.

So if you are in route development what do you do?

- Sit back and wait several years for Cathay to possibly become interested and then to actually be in a position to start the route? There are no guarantees that Birmingham will ever be on their radar, world events could also push the potential time frame back even further.

or

- Go after an airline that is expanding now? One that is growing it's hub and potentially looking for markets such as Birmingham? Get the route up and running, do everything you can to make it work and hope that it shows other airlines the real potential?

It's a risk but all new routes are.

Sure Hong Kong Airlines could come in, be a total flop and put any other operator off BHX for a very long time. The flip side is that they could come in, be a roaring success and show other airlines that they need to be in Birmingham to regain market share they are now losing.

For me it's a risk worth taking.

 

[TM3]

TBH I'm not really saying that BHX should ignore HK Airlines if they want to start a route. I have flown with them and they are a good airline.

But to me they are a realistically a lot further from opening a route to BHX than Cathay are as they currently don't have any routes to Europe and have only just announced their intention to fly to London - airport still to be announced, but Cathay are opening secondary routes in Europe right now, they have just announced 3, also the routes they are starting to serve are much lower down the food chain.

Vancouver and Auckland are secondary destinations HK are serving but even they were served before by both Cathay and Air Canada and Air New Zealand before HKA got involved, I just don't see picking up underserved routes as their MO.

Hong Kong isn't a natural entry point for a lot of destinations in China, it's better for SE Asia and Australia/New Zealand. HK don't serve as many destinations in Australia as Cathay, they also don't serve some big cities like Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and Manila. As has rightly been stated there are no direct flights to SE Asia or China provided by anyone else so that could make the route more attractive.

 

[TM3]

Don't want to labour the point and maybe it will be 7-10 years before Cathay serve BHX but when they serve the 15 largest markets in Europe and we are 17 on that list I'd like to think we could make a good case for a service sooner than that.

 

[GliderPilot]

Is there any news on the Primera routes yet. Im excited to know the 4th, if its already been announced sorry for being late to the party xD

 

[BHX492]

Is there any news on the Primera routes yet. Im excited to know the 4th, if its already been announced sorry for being late to the party xD

One will be Toronto
I have the schedule in front of me but the airline are still In Talks with the Canadian authorities

but don't know nothing about 4th

 

[Ray Finkle]

I've heard two rumours regarding Primera, one another USA destination and one another Canadian destination. There was also that article predicting Washington, only one can be true though.

It seems like nothing more than speculation so I'll wait for something official.

 

[Brum X]

Im waiting to see a Primera Air Advert somewhere in the city on one of the electronic screens dotted around the city, you can be all assured that when i do, i will take a sneeky pic

 

[Ianbutty]

Good debate as usual on HK. I can't see it for some time but you never know. I think other Asian markets will come first. Time for a smart thinking airline to link Europe's 17 biggest market to a far East hub but one with enough point to point passengers to fill 50% of seats. Who is Birmingham doing business with out east? Thailand seems to have the demand but is that Bangkok or just Phuket? Singapore captures business and tourism so fits well.

 

[Ray Finkle]

For what it's worth I actually agree with TM3 and if the choice was there then I'd certainly take the main carrier on any route. I'm not convinced that the choice is there though.

I'd bet that when it comes to Hong Kong Cathay would have been their first port of call and I'd be very surprised if the route development team haven't at least spoken to them.

If BHX are now actually chasing Hong Kong Airlines then it says to me that the response from Cathay was not a positive one and BHX are looking elsewhere. If they see a potential opportunity then they have to seize it before it's too late and we're all left wondering 'what if?'

 

[Ianbutty]

I suspect the route development team are speaking to everyone, but I agree Ray. They will soon have a clear response from Cathay and look elsewhere. Hopefully they will not flog a dead horse and move on to easier wins. We are a 13 mppa airport on a crowded isle with two big airports North and South. We need to be patient. Build what guarantees airline profit and they will come.

 

[Coathanger16]

Perhaps something to consider RE Hong Kong - currently London & Manchester have connections. Would Cathay want to open a route to Scotland before another 'Southern' (relative) airport. Just thinking that adding Birmingham would cover the Southern half of the UK very well, but would leave the Northern half rather lacking - remember that while Manchester is considered North, its actually only "half way up" the UK. Yes most of the population is South of Manchester, and Birmingham featured higher on the unserved list, but could play a factor.

The smallest airport Cathay serves in Europe is currently Milan Malpensa (19,320,546), though they've only just announced launching Copenhagen (29,043,287) albeit seasonally. Certainly wouldn't expect HKG in the next few years, probably not until 2020 or later...

 

[BHXsupporter]

Interesting as ever Coathanger16. Is is correct that most of Man's passengers come from the south? I would have guessed that the majority come from the Liverpool to Leeds belt and the many conurbations of Lancs. and Yorks. but I'm happy to learn.

 

[Coathanger16]

Is is correct that most of Man's passengers come from the south?

Is this the quote you are referring to:

Yes most of the population is South of Manchester

If so, my point was if you imagine a line across the UK East to West in line with Manchester, then the majority of the population of the UK is located to the South of that line.

As for where MAN's passengers originate I have no clue.

 

[rollo]

Coathanger16 is geographically correct if you draw a line from Liverpool to say Leeds the vast majority of the population and wealth is in the south and BHX is pretty well centrally placed but stuck between LHR/MAN such is life.

 

[User001]

Being well placed geographically has turned out to be a curse, rather than benefit for Birmingham.

 

[IanFarquharson]

I always ask my self the questions.

How many pax from the Midlands travel to Manchester to get flights = LOTS
How many pax from the North West travel to Birmingham to get flights = VERY FEW

Which proves the split of flights is and has always been wrong, it is just that Manchester invested in its infrastructure many years ago whilst Birmingham built a new library (which has now been knocked down)
BHX is always playing catch up but I still say if the London runway capacity is not resolved BHX will be the mian benefactor and will spend money to accommodate a rise in pax.

 

[Coathanger16]

I still say if the London runway capacity is not resolved BHX will be the mian benefactor and will spend money to accommodate a rise in pax.

The question is how likely is no new runway capacity going to be the case. Yes LHR is still very much 50/50, but if LHR falls at any particular hurdle, whether it be the commons vote or judicial review, how likely is it that the government will give up on LHR and switch to supporting LGW. Yes that will add a few years to any new runway capacity coming online, but any expansion of BHX will also take time.

Birmingham and BHXs future rests on it marketing itself as a destination for business and leisure in itself, and not as an alternate entry point or "overflow" to London.