Route Development & Rumours

[TM3]

but if it also bought us Athens, Stockholm, Seville, Bilbao, Lisbon, Gibraltar, Olbia....... would it be worth it?

If not where are these routes going to come from?

Athens, Stockholm and Lisbon are Star Alliance hubs and they should be most viable for those carriers. At least 2 have already been served recently and not continued, this could mean they aren't viable. If they are close I guess it's up to the airport to incentivise these carriers to come back.

If not the next best chance is going to come from an existing carrier at one of these airports, BHX have more leverage with the carriers already based at BHX and it's easier to add another route for an existing carrier than one that will need to set up a new base.

Ryanair already have bases at 4 of these cities.

Flybe have too many aircraft and can't find enough places to use them if they thought some of these routes would work for them maybe they would give them a go.

Jet2 are expanding maybe they would also give them a try if they thought they were viable.

Point is if BHX can't sell these routes as being viable to the carrier that it's a hub for, or to Ryanair or Jet2 why would they be more valuable to Easyjet.

 

[Aviador]

I would question the popularity of the USA and Canada these days. You often hear people saying they want "x" flights to America but in reality is there as much call for U.S flights as what people make out. Flights to the Costa Blanca in the Med and you can fill dozens of them each day. 7 flights a week to New York or Chicago and we have a problem. It's not a BHX phenomenon it's UK wide. The USA just isn't as popular as it used to be.

 

[Ianbutty]

I think it was Southend.

The easyjet website suggests it opened in March 2012 with 3x A319 initially.

And a darn good thing it is to. Use it for the times when we have to flee the country.

I think Easyjet will come to BHX. They will see how far things drop and come in for a really good start up deal. Souf'end was a very brave choice and has worked: led to Ryanair coming along.

I know that jet2 are still relatively new but BHX needs a new entry and Easyjet will see what jet2 have done, the inactivity from Ryanair, huge market gaps, good catchment and think why not. Opening a new base around the satuated London market in a plastic bucket and spade resort town worked.

 

[Ianbutty]

I would question the popularity of the USA and Canada these days. You often hear people saying they want "x" flights to America but in reality is there as much call for U.S flights as what people make out. Flights to the Costa Blanca in the Med and you can fill dozens of them each day. 7 flights a week to New York or Chicago and we have a problem. It's not a BHX phenomenon it's UK wide. The USA just isn't as popular as it used to be.

I agree. East is the new market. Glad to see ministers backing Brum in India. The US market is weak. Once the reality of Trumps policies sink in the US is heading to a big recession and their airlines are far to over leveraged. Looks good on the arrivals board, but apart from LHR it is mainly tourist traffic, so no major economic benefit to the region.

Birmingham needs business to business connectivity which was the main stay of the airport for so many years. Focus on Europe cities and the Indian Sub continent.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Athens, Stockholm and Lisbon are Star Alliance hubs and they should be most viable for those carriers. At least 2 have already been served recently and not continued, this could mean they aren't viable.

When Monarch operated Stockholm it was not uncommon to see the aircraft near full, when SAS came back on the route it was not uncommon to see as little 30 or so pax. Look how long Madrid remained absent for until Iberia and subsequently Ryanair arrived. Both are now thriving on a route that could once have been described as unviable as it was once dropped. Sometimes it's the airline and/or their pricing structure that can make all the difference.

I mean no disrespect to these cities but I refuse to believe that these routes are viable from the likes of Liverpool and Bristol yet not from Birmingham. It just needs the right airline, with the right profile and the right pricing to stimulate demand.

If not the next best chance is going to come from an existing carrier at one of these airports, BHX have more leverage with the carriers already based at BHX and it's easier to add another route for an existing carrier than one that will need to set up a new base.

Ryanair have shown no interest in Birmingham beyond seeing off the competition. They have had plenty of chance over the years to do something pretty special but chose not to. Their focus looks to be with MAG.

Flybe are reducing routes and cutting costs, as seen by major reductions from BHX and a focus on airports seemingly offering incentives. They have also proven unreliable in their route choices and not just from BHX.

Jet2 know their market and they stick to it. Other than a couple of cities from LBA all of their routes are available from several of their bases as city breaks, so it's very unlikely they'd stick an Athens or Stockholm in from just Birmingham, it would need to be from several airports.

We'll just have to agree to disagree but I think that the right airline could do wonders at Birmingham and stimulate markets that are currently unavailable. Destinations such as Athens, Stockholm and Lisbon have been successful in the past and I believe that they could be again in the future.

The world has changed and most airports have moved with the times but it kind of feels like BHX are stuck in the 1990's waiting for the glory days of a BA base to return

 

[hay677]

I would question the popularity of the USA and Canada these days.

That may well be true, but Primera seemed to have sold themselves to the BHX management as some kind of replacement for United/American/Air Transat to North America, maybe contributing to the latters' demise. Now Primera is no more I wouldn't be surprised if BHX still attach some urgency to finding a replacement for the replacement.

 

[TM3]

When Monarch operated Stockholm it was not uncommon to see the aircraft near full, when SAS came back on the route it was not uncommon to see as little 30 or so pax. Look how long Madrid remained absent for until Iberia and subsequently Ryanair arrived. Both are now thriving on a route that could once have been described as unviable as it was once dropped. Sometimes it's the airline and/or their pricing structure that can make all the difference.

I mean no disrespect to these cities but I refuse to believe that these routes are viable from the likes of Liverpool and Bristol yet not from Birmingham. It just needs the right airline, with the right profile and the right pricing to stimulate demand.



Ryanair have shown no interest in Birmingham beyond seeing off the competition. They have had plenty of chance over the years to do something pretty special but chose not to. Their focus looks to be with MAG.

Flybe are reducing routes and cutting costs, as seen by major reductions from BHX and a focus on airports seemingly offering incentives. They have also proven unreliable in their route choices and not just from BHX.

Jet2 know their market and they stick to it. Other than a couple of cities from LBA all of their routes are available from several of their bases as city breaks, so it's very unlikely they'd stick an Athens or Stockholm in from just Birmingham, it would need to be from several airports.

We'll just have to agree to disagree but I think that the right airline could do wonders at Birmingham and stimulate markets that are currently unavailable. Destinations such as Athens, Stockholm and Lisbon have been successful in the past and I believe that they could be again in the future.

The world has changed and most airports have moved with the times but it kind of feels like BHX are stuck in the 1990's waiting for the glory days of a BA base to return

I get what you are saying and a lot of it I agree with. I think Easyjet are a false hope and they won't do anything any different to Ryanair. Easy have Luton one way and Manchester and Liverpool the other way. At least Ryanair have a base and they are EMA too. IMO the big prize for Ryanair is the Dublin route.

As you have covered the 2 biggest risk takers route wise at BHX have been Monarch and Flybe. The reason for this is because they were desperate. Both had too many aircraft that they committed to long ago and were still paying for so the alternative of parking them up was also costly.

Buying an airliner is a big financial commitment so (well run) airlines are reluctant to commit to equipment purchases for marginal routes or to operate a route that they could be forced out of.

I think Lisbon would work tomorrow and if slots weren't an issue someone would offer it, if TAP offered it I would use it for US connections.

It beats me why Stockholm doesn't work or what Monarch did that SAS couldn't, maybe lack of publicity, maybe he days and times weren't very good - it's easy to blame the airport they obviously worked to get that route maybe they should have stumped up some $ to get it off the ground either through publicity or an extra incentive to the airline to keep it going longer. When a route fails like that it makes other operators uneasy about operating it.

 

[TM3]

That may well be true, but Primera seemed to have sold themselves to the BHX management as some kind of replacement for United/American/Air Transat to North America, maybe contributing to the latters' demise. Now Primera is no more I wouldn't be surprised if BHX still attach some urgency to finding a replacement for the replacement.

The trouble is there is no-one left. They should have worked with the incumbent (United) to increase frequency and volumes instead of bringing in competitors.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I mean no disrespect to these cities but I refuse to believe that these routes are viable from the likes of Liverpool and Bristol yet not from Birmingham. It just needs the right airline, with the right profile and the right pricing to stimulate demand.

I've long been surprised that easyJet has a big base at Bristol but none at Birmingham. On the face of it the situation ought to be reversed.

Bristol as an economic city region and as an airport (long haul capability not withstanding) does punch above its weight. On another forum I once put forward a semi-serious argument that as it's surrounded by airports the Bristol region could get by quite happily with no airport of its own. It provoked an interesting debate and I wasn't completely on my own, albeit it was as much devil's advocacy as anything.

 

[hay677]

The trouble is there is no-one left.

You imply North American services cannot happen in the next year? Where there's a will there's a way!

 

[TM3]

You imply North American services cannot happen in the next year? Where there's a will there's a way!

Not really, think there is demand and ultimately someone will fill it.

What I'm saying is that 3 years ago we already had an established carrier offering those services but we damaged that relationship and drove them off by getting other carriers on the route.

I think Air Canada would work really well for us but they rarely get discussed.

 

[Coathanger16]

What I'm saying is that 3 years ago we already had an established carrier offering those services but we damaged that relationship and drove them off by getting other carriers on the route.

The problem with that is that I imagine Primera sold BHX the idea that they would serve multiple N.American destinations - something that United & Air Transat wouldn't. Pretty sure that any airport would back an airline that serves multiple destinations over an airline that serves just one with not much chance of launching any others.

I think Air Canada would work really well for us but they rarely get discussed.

IMO Air Canada, Mainline or Rouge, is very unlikely. Mainline serves Heathrow whilst Rouge serves Manchester, Edinburgh & Glasgow. We've found countless times that once an airline serves London, Manchester & Scotland, they're not interested in expanding in the UK any further. In a recent interview, BHX mentioned WestJet - might that suggest they are pursuing them over Air Canada?

Easy have Luton one way and Manchester and Liverpool the other way.

Interesting that you highlight easyJet bases at Manchester & Liverpool. Both are closer to each other than BHX is to any other EZY base. The closest EZY base to BHX is Manchester, yet BHX is almost 3 times further from MAN than LPL is. How can LPL work with MAN so close, yet BHX can't.

It beats me why Stockholm doesn't work or what Monarch did that SAS couldn't, maybe lack of publicity, maybe he days and times weren't very good - it's easy to blame the airport they obviously worked to get that route maybe they should have stumped up some $ to get it off the ground either through publicity or an extra incentive to the airline to keep it going longer. When a route fails like that it makes other operators uneasy about operating it.

I'm sure there were multiple reasons as to why SAS withdrew, but I'm certainly sure that the EXTREMELY limited frequency of just 2 flights a week had a big contribution. 2 flights a week may work for long haul, and mainly leisure short haul destinations, but a capital city and a route you'd presumably want to attract business to would really need 4 flights/week minimum. I'm sure Monarch operated with such a frequency.

 

[mullion]

Yes you are right Coathanger SAS used to operate a mixed bag on some of the MAN routes and they struggled
and as soon as they operated on a regular base the passenger loads have grown well

 

[Ray Finkle]

In a recent interview, BHX mentioned WestJet - might that suggest they are pursuing them over Air Canada?

Another airline that seem to be constantly 'in talks'

 

[Brum X]

Not really, think there is demand and ultimately someone will fill it.

What I'm saying is that 3 years ago we already had an established carrier offering those services but we damaged that relationship and drove them off by getting other carriers on the route.

I think Air Canada would work really well for us but they rarely get discussed.

Yeah Air Canada Rouge x 3 weekly on a 763 would be nice, i saw 2 at BCN on saturday.

 

[58terminus]

The problem with that is that I imagine Primera sold BHX the idea that they would serve multiple N.American destinations - something that United & Air Transat wouldn't. Pretty sure that any airport would back an airline that serves multiple destinations over an airline that serves just one with not much chance of launching any others.

Problem was BHX did not seem to bother doing due diligence.before p*****g off the airlines already operating.Remember this was a small airline with no experience of the UK market let alone long haul suddenly announcing this expansion.
A few simple questions such as do you have the aircraft to operate the schedule and inquiries into what reserves they had if things
went wrong might have helped.A bit of digging might have prompted a come back next year if you are still interested response from decent management. Instead instead of a couple of TA routes we end up with none. .
Not such a problem for STN as nobody was operating TA and the biggest hit they would take was landing fees and ground ops.

 

[nwoody2001]

Problem was BHX did not seem to bother doing due diligence.before p*****g off the airlines already operating.Remember this was a small airline with no experience of the UK market let alone long haul suddenly announcing this expansion.
A few simple questions such as do you have the aircraft to operate the schedule and inquiries into what reserves they had if things
went wrong might have helped.A bit of digging might have prompted a come back next year if you are still interested response from decent management. Instead instead of a couple of TA routes we end up with none. .
Not such a problem for STN as nobody was operating TA and the biggest hit they would take was landing fees and ground ops.

And it’s post like that which mean this thread is borderline fascicle ...

In one breathe, people are here complaining that BHX are spending too much time protecting existing airlines (like Flybe) In not making a deal with the likes of EasyJet. Yet the second breathe people are complaining that BHX didn’t protect airlines like united and Air Transat enough in making a deal with Primera.

Half the people don’t want to look at the irony of their comments and just want to kick a dog when it’s down. BHX is far from perfect, but people here seem happy to find any fault.

Let me know when this thread turns back into a “Route Development” threat and not a “Winge at BHX” thread...

Enjoy boys!

 

[Brum X]

And it’s post like that which mean this thread is borderline fascicle ...

In one breathe, people are here complaining that BHX are spending too much time protecting existing airlines (like Flybe) In not making a deal with the likes of EasyJet. Yet the second breathe people are complaining that BHX didn’t protect airlines like united and Air Transat enough in making a deal with Primera.

Half the people don’t want to look at the irony of their comments and just want to kick a dog when it’s down. BHX is far from perfect, but people here seem happy to find any fault.

Let me know when this thread turns back into a “Route Development” threat and not a “Winge at BHX” thread...

Enjoy boys!

However as there isnt any "Route Development" i think that it the reason why we are having a winge. We are not doing it for the sake of it, this is the reality. There is nothing going on at BHX at present so you might have a long wait nwoody2001.

Loads of Ryanair expansion for W18/19 announced today, BHX not listed once, not even once.

Qatar increase MAN to 21 weekly from 18 weekly. Anything for BHX, of course there isnt.

 

[nwoody2001]

Casing point - farcisle

Comparing an airport twice the size of BHX and disappointed that compared to MAN, BHX is on par. It’s like you guys seek and strive for disappointment!

Heaven forbid you compare a similar sized airport like EDI or GLA... suffering with reductions, route cancellations or base closures!

Have fun guys...

 

[Brum X]

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