Airline and Airport Correspondence

[User0001]

Re: Potential Routes

Hassan, Im negative due to the reality surrounding aviation.

You say PIA moved their transits from BHX to MAN for all the transits be in the same place, and that the B777 was nothing to do with the move. You are correct to some degree.
The transits were moved due to financial reasons, and the larger demand to be had at MAN, as MAN has always done better with the Pakistan and USA links. Put it this way, if BHX did so well, and given there were actually more transit flights at BHX at the time of the move, then why wernt the MAN flights moved to BHX?-Demand!

Like you say, nothing to suggest it is true, and likewise Kakram is spouting lots of untrue rumours, so dont hold your breath.

 

[Hassaan]

Re: Potential Routes

Thanks for that.

I've been surfing the internet and I've found rumors about Airblue considering starting flights to BHX from LHE & KHI. I've also heard rumors about RJ and DL.

It'd help if you can confirm any of these with some detail as to what their intention is.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Potential Routes

Thanks for that.

I've been surfing the internet and I've found rumors about Airblue considering starting flights to BHX from LHE & KHI. I've also heard rumors about RJ and DL.

It'd help if you can confirm any of these with some detail as to what their intention is.

More often than not rumours are started by people wanting a particular route as opposed to a route been feasible.

I certainly don't want to discourage discussions about route potential on here but I feel we're going round in circles so it's time to move on.

If you think a route could work you really need to be backing up your claim with evidence as to why you feel a route should work. Just because there's a rumour isn't good enough. Statistics, figures and number crunching to back your claim is far better evidence as to why it might work.

 

[User0001]

Re: Potential Routes

A few things RE Airblue.
-The airblue rumours are from 2008, and dont forget, there has been a recession since then.
-The A321 crash at ISB has damaged them more than you think. It took away half the A321 capacity, and they have been struggling to meed demand since. They took delivery of AP-EDA an A320 to help elliviate the issue, but the capacity is still down. MAN has had to go down to 3 weekly as a concequence, and they have said they want MAN back up to at least 5 weekly before any other UK routes come online.
-Any BHX route is likely to be the same as MAN, to ISB and not the KHI/LHE people seem to be thinking.

So, in short, there are just too many issues to contend with before a BHX link comes online.

DL is not interested in BHX, their main UK focus is LHR at the moment

RJ is unlikely, I think they are launching LGW next to compete with easyjet. I saw some slots for LGW with a RJ123/124 or RJ111/112, but cant remember exactly. Next focus is likely to be MAN, as Easyjet have been mulling a MAN-AMM route, and RJ want to put paid to that before it starts.

 

[Hassaan]

Re: Potential Routes

I think that clears it up.

Have the figures for April been released yet? It'd be interesting to know how well the Air Transat service is doing.

About another forum, it's a shame that no one is posting on the Birmingham thread, people are posting regularly on the Manchester and Newcastle forums as I have been reading and as you have said, many of these are airline staff.

Anyone heard anything else regarding airlines and new services at BHX?

 

[pug]

Re: Potential Routes

Have the figures for April been released yet? It'd be interesting to know how well the Air Transat service is doing.

Passenger statistics tend to be released by the CAA on or around the 14th of the following month in question.

 

[Hassaan]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Biman seem to have fallen through, and I don't think we'll be seeing them on the apron any time soon. What BHX should be doing at first, really, is looking at the services BHX should have had for the past few years. The European routes in particular. They should use the opening of the runway extension as a launch pad and the publicity would be great. Same goes for any international routes. Whether they will is another matter.

I'm tempted to send them an email just to ask exactly what they have lined up other than China Southern but I've sent them emails before and they've not got back to me.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

I'm tempted to send them an email just to ask exactly what they have lined up other than China Southern but I've sent them emails before and they've not got back to me.

Have a word with user001, he's got a direct hotline to Paul Kehoe

 

[User0001]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Have a word with user001, he's got a direct hotline to Paul Kehoe

Have you got the right address? He got back to me within 1 hour of emailing him.

 

[Hassaan]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Have a word with user001, he's got a direct hotline to Paul Kehoe

Have you got the right address? He got back to me within 1 hour of emailing him.

I've always been using the contact form on the BHX site, so I presume I haven't got the right address.

 

[Hassaan]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Ray - I emailed Mr Kehoe, and this is what he had to say:
------------------------------
If it were only that easy as you seem to indicate in your email – there are no excuses here – route development is brutally competitive.

Do you think my team sits around waiting for people to turn up. Everything is easy to say and difficult to do.

I thought about replying to your long email point by point however, I will give you the courtesy of a bulleted response and here are some points of which you might like to be aware:

1. BHX is not expensive, the tariff is published for non based airlines or ad hoc flights. All carriers at BHX operate on some form of discount or concession.

2. BHX spends or discounts around £53m a year in market support for its airlines.

3. There are 27 airports in a 150km radius around BHX (with an average flying time of 5-10mins between them) all competing for 195m passengers each year (where LHR takes 73m, LGW 36m, MAN 20m, STN 18m, LTN 10m) which means there are 22 airports competing for 38m pax. It is competitive!

4. It is further complicated in that we are not just competing with UK airports for aircraft assets, if Ryanair or easyJet can make more money from flying between Berlin and Barcelona or Biarritz and Bologna, then that’s what they will do. Yield is the key not airport charges.

5. We have spent £200m of shareholders funds putting the airport right – and sorry no funds for the spotters - s we have had to build a runway extension, control tower, pier terminal, hangar, fire station rebuild etc and support our airlines.

6. We are doing what should have been done 30 years ago and the behavioural economic is such that passenger are sticky and like birds of a feather they flock together. Not having the capability means that we were not able to play.

7. BHX will not pay as some airports do for traffic, reportedly, £4m in the case of Melbourne for Air India or millions of £ in the case of Edinburgh and if the route requires continuous subsidy – it is not sustainable.

8. We talk to lots of airlines but we have to match potential traffic throughput, destination, aircraft type and capability and onward destinations in to the mix. So when we talk to airlines about Chicago – the equipment has to be available and right and we have to have3 no competing destination in range to win the service.

9. Our proximity to LHR is an issue and airlines like to fly where the national carrier is based – and that’s LHR. Many of our pax prefer to go to LHR because it is a short drive. MAN – LHR is a tad too far.

10. Advertising – the airport we do it, just because, you don’t see it doesn’t mean that it isn’t being done. MAN and EMA are part of the same Group – MAG and share a catchment with BHX – their pockets are deeper than ours.

11. We don’t talk about individual aircraft deals but they happen and they are sustainable.

12. If you can advise us why easyJet are not here in a more meaningful fashion, then we are all ears!

13. If you know any silver bullets we can fire – we are all ears.

14. If not, we will continue to grind away bringing in new routes like the 7 this year with Flybe as well as Reykjavik , the additional Thos Cook aircraft, Air India – to Delhi., the Thomson Dreamliner, Icelandair and much more.

15. Thank you for your comments, I am sure the “negotiating team” will consider them.

 

[Brummiegem]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

An interesting reply from Mr Kehoe.
I guess you also have to look at airlines themselves.If they can't get what they want then they won't serve a certain route or airport.
It is easy to accuse someone of being greedy but this is business after all.Airlines will do what is best for them and/or their shareholders as is the case with airports.
FairPlay to Mr Kehoe for replying to Hassan13s' email.
We have had some disappointments recently but overall I think things are on the way up,but how far BHX can go remains to be seen.Geographically we are not best positioned,but we can boast a lot of tourist attractions as well as much improving businesses and industries.
I for one remain hopeful and optimistic that the place where I work and spend a fair bit of time in a leisure capacity can attract new routes and airlines,but as PK pointed out there is a lot of competition out there so we will have put our trust in his team and see what happens.

 

[thunderchild]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Interesting read - particularly the comment about EDI. While BHX and EDI do have similarities they are both equally very different markets and I think it's unfair to compare EDI's sudden long haul boom to BHXs aspirations when these routes are being subsidised by the Scottish tourist board.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

It's very difficult to understand context from the written word but on the face of it I'd say he, or whoever wrote the email, appears quite rattled? Especially points 12-15. Well done for the comprehensive reply though.

1. BHX is not expensive, the tariff is published for non based airlines or ad hoc flights. All carriers at BHX operate on some form of discount or concession.

I'd be interested to know why there are studies published which show that BHX is, and why it's said that airlines have stated that it is too. Also I wonder what is meant by 'non based airlines'. Is it airlines that don't serve BHX at all, in which case it would only apply to ad hoc and diversions, or is it airlines that don't have an actual base in the way the likes of Monarch, Flybe, Thomson do, in which case it would apply to a lot of airlines including the likes of United, Emirates, PIA etc? I have no doubt all carriers have some form of discount but it would be interesting to know what sort of discount, what the original figure before discount was and how, after discount, it compares to other similar airports, we never will know though as it would all be commercially sensitive information.

2. BHX spends or discounts around £53m a year in market support for its airlines.

I don't know how this compares with other similar airports so can't comment whether this figure is good, bad or average?

3. There are 27 airports in a 150km radius around BHX (with an average flying time of 5-10mins between them) all competing for 195m passengers each year (where LHR takes 73m, LGW 36m, MAN 20m, STN 18m, LTN 10m) which means there are 22 airports competing for 38m pax. It is competitive!

8. We talk to lots of airlines but we have to match potential traffic throughput, destination, aircraft type and capability and onward destinations in to the mix. So when we talk to airlines about Chicago – the equipment has to be available and right and we have to have3 no competing destination in range to win the service.

9. Our proximity to LHR is an issue and airlines like to fly where the national carrier is based – and that’s LHR. Many of our pax prefer to go to LHR because it is a short drive. MAN – LHR is a tad too far.

I totally agree but all those other airports also have to compete and some appear to be doing much better than BHX. I've said before that I think one of the reasons we have such a poor offering to the USA in particular is the proximity of LHR and the sheer frequency and cheaper prices available for such a short drive, so do we now have to concede that this is the way it is, LHR will take the majority of the regions pax with MAN mopping up those from the north who don't want to drive all that way? If so I can live with that, but, when we're seeing a constant stream of press releases banging on about how much business demand there is from BHX it sends out mixed messages. Is the demand there, if so there should be no issue in getting the flights, if it isn't there then stop telling us it is.

4.Yield is the key not airport charges.

Would airport charges not contribute towards overall yields?

5. We have spent £200m of shareholders funds putting the airport right – and sorry no funds for the spotters - s we have had to build a runway extension, control tower, pier terminal, hangar, fire station rebuild etc and support our airlines.

6. We are doing what should have been done 30 years ago and the behavioural economic is such that passenger are sticky and like birds of a feather they flock together. Not having the capability means that we were not able to play.

It's a very good point, BHX was woefully neglected for many years when other airports were investing, is it too late to catch up?

7. BHX will not pay as some airports do for traffic, reportedly, £4m in the case of Melbourne for Air India or millions of £ in the case of Edinburgh and if the route requires continuous subsidy – it is not sustainable.

The new owners of EDI said their intention was to build the airport up then sell it on and I've think I've said before that it doesn't appear sustainable, especially if, as suggested, they're paying for airlines to fly there.

10. Advertising – the airport we do it, just because, you don’t see it doesn’t mean that it isn’t being done.

I'm no top advertising executive but doesn't the whole point of advertising your product come down to the fact that your potential customers see it???

11. We don’t talk about individual aircraft deals but they happen and they are sustainable.

No one would expect commercially sensitive information such as individual deals to be made public and they do have to be sustainable to ensure the companies economic future but I wonder if there is any scope for even more to be done, whether just that little bit extra could have made the difference. Of course if BHX are already selling their product at rock bottom prices and have no room for leverage at all then I can accept that.


It's good for him (or his people) to take the time to reply. The issue of airport charges will never be resolved, it's long been suggested by many that BHX is a very expensive airport to fly from, maybe it's true, maybe it's just an excuse when someone isn't interested but no one apart from the airlines themselves will know exactly what is being paid, so it can't be proven true, and BHX can't fairly defend themselves without revealing sensitive information, which won't happen, so we can only believe what we are told. A lot is made of the geographical location, and LHR being so close is definitely a major downside, but what about the big headlines that were made about BHX being 'the best connected airport in the country', should that not be a distinct advantage when competing for pax with the other airports? The two biggest gripes about BHX seem to be the destinations simply aren't available (see MAD, PRG, LIS, WAW, BUD, BER.....all available from the likes of EMA, LTN or BRS) or that it is too expensive when comparing similar flights from other airports, why is anybody's guess, lack of competition, covering airport costs?

Anyway we've had a few pieces of good news recently so I wish him and his team all the best for the future and hope to hear even more good news soon :good:

 

[User0001]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

I would be interested to see Hassans full email, as I agree with Ray, he seems quite pissed off and sarcastic in a few parts of that email.

With all due respect, ive had to sit back and think before replying to Hassan, for sake of not wanting to offend.

If Hassans email came across wrong, and is if telling Paul what to do, then im not surprised at the tone

 

[Hassaan]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Maybe I did choose the wrong points to send to him. I did particularly send him some of Ray & The Local Yokel's points over the last few pages. Here's the full email:

Hi Paul. I'd like to make a few notes about the route development at BHX.

We seem to get a steady flow of press releases about the growing demand from the region and how businesses are desperate for services from their local airport yet nothing has materialized. If so much demand is there then what is the stumbling block? Are the negotiating team not up to the job? If so then more training is needed and if they're still not there then they need to be replaced. Are the team up to the job yet the package they're allowed to offer just not suitable? If you're constantly being told "I'm sorry your airport is too expensive to operate from" then surely a review is in order? The big problem there though is just how do you convince people to take less money so there can be a few more different tails on the ramp? Or is it that all this is a load of bullshine and airlines simply aren't interested in BHX? LHR covers the South and draws pax from all around the country and MAN caters for those in the North who don't want to travel to London, both within easy reach of the Greater Birmingham area. This is nothing against BHX but purely based on geography. We had lots of headlines from the trip to Chicago and it ended with absolutely nothing. The next 18 months or so will be crucial, the infrastructure is now there and in my opinion we have one of the best airports in the country in terms of passenger experience so it's time for the BHX management to put their money where their mouth is. Other airports have gained and will be gaining more new routes and getting them established, if they don't act soon BHX will miss the boat (if it hasn't already).

It's amazing how many times you mention flights to New York, Dubai, Mexico, Jamaica etc and people are genuinely amazed you can go direct from Birmingham. Turkish have been advertising on cabs and some of the Euro carriers have radio ads but that's about it. When I'm at my in laws driving around Sheffield/Rotherham I see loads of billboards advertising flights from EMA, Manchester Airport have on more than one occasion had pull outs in the Solihull Times and have run radio ads on local stations. I'm surprised that BHX doesn't make more of its potential outer catchment in the Bristol area. BHX features routes that BRS cannot, both for commercial and operational reasons, and in truth it's only an hour along the M5 from a lot of Greater Bristol. The area's residents seem to have a LHR default setting in most cases when a little ingenuity in publicising its wares might well attract a decent little catch for BHX from the West Country. I can never remember seeing any advertising for BHX in the Bristol area, not even in the free newspapers. Given that BHX has spent a lot of money extending the runway why does the management/owners still seem reluctant to do realistic deals with airlines that would bring a lot to the BHX party? From an outsider's perspective, it seems they are reluctant to speculate in order to accumulate new services, some of which they would desperately want.

It almost seems a ready made excuse these days for the stagnation of BHX but it's been cited as a reason too many times for it not to play at least some part. If you look at the published prices, which will most likely be at least a starting point for negotiations, then it appears BHX is more than double the cost of MAN so even with a half price discount BHX is still more pricey than the MAN top end and you can bet they will offer a discount (I've seen articles that suggest MAN is the second cheapest in Europe whereas BHX is the fourth most expensive in the world), it's a no brainer.

A small part of me hopes that over the last few years BHX have been secretly swelling the coffers to pay for the recent infrastructure and are now in a position to be very competitive when it comes to negotiations for new routes, growth stimulates growth (as seen in the rise of Turkmenistan loads since AI arrived) and one or two strategically placed new routes could lead to more coming to fruition, as you say speculate to accumulate. Sadly though from the press releases it doesn't appear to be the case, we seem to be in a situation where BHX try for a route, fail, then spit their dummy out to the press saying how everyone under the sun is desperate for the route but the big, bad airline refuses to start it. Look at the recent trip to reinstate the Chicago link, we had headlines from the Chamber of Commerce, the Mayors, local business leaders, you name it, all so desperate for the link, I'd bet all the airline wanted was a solid business case and a mutually beneficial deal re: airport charges and it would have been done. Beijing looks to be going the same way. We've also had numerous releases stating the government should do this, the government should do that! I'm all for the UK becoming less London centric and greater powers being devolved to the regions but I don't see it as central governments responsibility to get BHX a Chicago link, a Beijing service or increased capacity to Florida, that's what a route development team are supposedly for. BHX appears to be able to talk the talk very well but struggles when it comes to walking the walk, actions speak louder than words and there is no better time than now.

if BHX is to grow in any meaningful way then a couple of calculated risks are going to need to be taken. We're coming out of recession so with growth on the horizon now seems the perfect time to start laying the groundwork, but, given what the world has been through in the last few years I think airlines will be (rightfully) a lot more cautious than they may have been pre-recession, is it now time for BHX to bring their pricing structure into the 21st century?

Look at what has happened up at MAN in recent times, after such a large investment in the region Etihad wanted to be top dog, Emirates obviously fought back and with Qatar also flexing their muscles we saw a massive amount of expansion in a relatively short space of time. Success breeds success and recently we've seen the likes of Saudia, Egyptair, Flynas etc join the party, some worked out, some didn't but at least they tried. There looks to be a similar situation now brewing in Scotland with Etihad joining Qatar at EDI and I'd be very surprised if there wasn't some sort of reaction from EK at GLA. You just get the impression that things are all to 'comfortable' at BHX, Emirates going east and United going west have the vast majority of bases covered and with there being a virtual monopoly BHX sees some eye watering fares at times, no doubt covering the seemingly higher cost base. Back in 2005 Gulf Air announced it was to start a Bahrain service from BHX, almost immediately Emirates introduced their second daily flight and Gulf Air were never heard of again, you have to wonder if the addition of Qatar now, even at say 4x weekly, would be enough to force Emirates hand over a third daily flight? With the right package in place, the right yield management and a good amount of local and semi national advertising I don't see how both couldn't coexist and it would surely help the pax numbers rise.

As for Europe, I'm at a loss as to where the airport is heading. I could see TAP arriving in the next year or two, possibly Finnair but other than that there appears to be very little movement. Monarch saw some big expansion out of BHX a couple of years ago, You said in an interview that a 'fantastic deal' was done with Monarch with regards to the MAEL hangar, did that deal also extend to ZB because the much rumoured 10th base unit is still yet to arrive? Before that Ryanair expanded in a blaze of glory promising over 100 routes within five years, given the nature of Ryanair one would assume a deal was done, low and behold a couple of years later Ryanair have now stagnated at four based with not much more than the sun routes and Eastern European cities. Did the deal run out and they reverted back to the 'rack rate'? Flybe have recently expanded out of BHX, has a deal been done with them, if so what happens when it runs out and they're back to 'rack rate', will all the routes be dropped? It's been discussed at length that BHX has some large holes in the European network with the likes of Madrid, Lisbon, Budapest, Warsaw, Prague and soon to be Berlin all unserved, there is also extra capacity on the core sun routes desperately needed with EMA outdoing BHX every month for the last year or two. Where will this come from? We may see the odd extra flights from Monarch to the sun routes, Ryanair appear stagnant, Vueling could potentially offer a couple of flights to the likes of Malaga but most hope seems to be in the hands of Flybe who have been through a rough patch and having just done such a large round of expansion I can't see much more from BHX until they have consolidated what they have now, there also may be plans for expansion at other bases. To me Easyjet or Jet2 could slot in nicely with plenty of extra capacity on the core sun routes in the summer and winter sun and ski destinations in the winter, add a couple of weekly rotations to unserved European cities and watch the pax numbers rise. They're both staying away from BHX for a reason though.

We've also got a massively underserved long haul IT market with Florida in particular woefully under capacity and the likes of a seasonal Dominican Republic, Cuba and Las Vegas etc. all missing.

I hope to hear back from you soon, Paul.

I just wanted to see what he would say even if they weren't my own points. It will be better to take a far more laid back approach next time and actually use my own points... I think the first paragraph is the main reason why he may seem rattled.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Pretty comprehensive, Hassaan and a serious missive that he (or more likely one of his staff) should have taken seriously so it's good to see that he did send a full reply albeit part might be seen as sarcasm, or someone did on his behalf even if it was in his name.

The only point that might have emphasised your position would have been a statement in your email that you are a committed supporter of BHX and wrote as a critical friend who is desperate to see the airport prosper.

Apart from that I think the email contained a lot of pertinent points.

 

[thunderchild]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

I'm at a loss for words :shok:

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

I agree with TheLocalYokel, it's quite a lengthy email that could have seemed like nothing more than a big rant, which may have gotten his, or a member of his press teams, back up hence the slightly sarcastic reply. If I could have changed a couple of things I'd have probably made the same points but in a slightly more succinct way, also as TheYokelLocal says it may have been worth mentioning that you are desperate for nothing more than to see your local airport prosper and maybe congratulate them for what they have achieved so far and state that you just want them to really push on.

Anyway thanks to Hassaaan for sending the email and taking the time to post the reply :hatsoff:

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Hi there Ray, regarding the above points 2 & 7, am i not understanding this correctly, but is the main primary function of of airports to provide chargeable facilities to paying customers & airlines that use its faciliies...so why are airports subiserdising airline routes for, i thought that airlines paid for their own routes from when pssengers paid for their tickets & not by the airport....andyc