Wizz Air

[Iron Duck]

That old chestnut. The three Northern Powerhouse airports share the same catchment.

But then isn’t this self defeating? if Wizz pax are in the Leeds area, clearly the carrier thinks that the will just use MAN then?

 

[IanFarquharson]

Looks like consolidation at MAN and will remove LBA/LPL but not confirmed - hopefully not !

 

[Statto]

But then isn’t this self defeating? if Wizz pax are in the Leeds area, clearly the carrier thinks that the will just use MAN then?

Of course. And passengers who use Ryanair out of MAN might switch to them. If they are able to offer a daily service on traditionally thin routes then they might hope that the flexibility on offer is a sell. But ultimately it’s a price sensitive market and people naturally compare the options across different airports - just as LBA stalwarts on here will fly from MAN to Alicante or wherever if savings can be had. The real question is how many seats can a market sustain across all three airports at yields that make it worthwhile

 

[Silvercity]

But then isn’t this self defeating? if Wizz pax are in the Leeds area, clearly the carrier thinks that the will just use MAN then?

Jumping the gun, we don't know what they think. This situation has happened several times before with Wizz.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

But then isn’t this self defeating? if Wizz pax are in the Leeds area, clearly the carrier thinks that the will just use MAN then?

But are they? we dont know how many of the pax come from places that are just as as easy to get to Manchester from as Leeds.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

I have no idea whether there is any truth in the rumour concerning Wizz consolidating North of England ops at MAN. However, let's put aside the emotions and examine the data from the perspective of the operator.

As I understand the rumour, Wizz allegedly proposes to 'consolidate' it's existing LBA and LPL ops at MAN. Why would they consider this? Two reasons offer some credibility to the idea.

Firstly, over the coming month or so, MAN anticipates completing the transfer of all remaining operators bar Ryanair Group into the newly expanded T2. The old terminal, set to become a remodelled integration of elements of the current T1/T3 complex, will then re-emerge a true dedicated 'low cost' facility. This will open the way to a lower pricing structure for use of the legacy facilities, with use of state-of-the-art showpiece T2 commanding higher charges. MAN has never been able to differentiate like this before due to the traffic mix across the current three terminal structure. So it may now be possible for MAG to offer Wizz a deal at a price-point which appeals to that carrier, without demands for similar terms from operators using the premium T2 facility.

Note that the rumour does not extend to Wizz launching head-to-head schedules competing with incumbent carriers on sunshine leisure routes. 'Consolidating' LPL and LBA schedules means flights to Eastern European cities specifically. This has long been a weak spot in MAN's portfolio; there really isn't much competition on the routes in question. Wizz serves six destinations from LBA and/or LPL. Two of these - Cluj and Iasi - are unserved from MAN; no competition there. Warsaw is woefully under-served at just two to three Ryanair flights per week according to season; nothing to frighten Wizz there. The other three routes see Ryanair operating 5/7 to Gdansk, 4/7 to Bucharest and 3/7 to Katowice. Jet2 also operates occasional city breaks to Gdansk, I believe. But there's nothing there to frighten off Wizz, should they choose to operate from their core home bases where their brand is well known.

None of us know what will transpire, but let's be realistic in assessing the case for and against. Prospective earnings will influence the final decision; emotion will be left at the door.

 

[Finger66]

@EGCC_MAN that is a very sensible, objective and sobering post at a time when as you say emotions are running high.
I really can't see how LBA, LPL and MAN all support Wizzair ops but having said that other airlines survive at all 3.
There are at least a couple on here who I would describe as "in the know" that have strongly hinted about consolidation at MAN for Wizz and I believe that is the way it will go, however I am more than happy to be proven wrong

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

@EGCC_MAN - perfectly put. Eastern Europe is a huge missing gap at MAN, only resolved with either rapid expansion by Ryanair or as you say have said attracting wizz.

My issue is this. Would MAG be willing to “rock the apple cart” inviting Wizz / doing a deal with them? Ryanair will aggressively respond no doubt but to what detriment to their programme at MAN (pulling one route to compete against Wizz on a duplicate route).

Where has this rumour come from is what I really would like to know?

How I see it panning out - a small Wizz UK base in MAN (6 to 8 A/C). Serving duplicated routes that LBA/LPL have that can sustain all 3 airports serving them with both Ryanair / Wizz.

The rest of destinations all not served by Wizz at LPL or LBA but need a north west service and therefore which better airport to sustain that then MAN. Other destinations include your usual leisure … giving MAN 2 ULCC competitors on those and 3 holiday operators (one offering consistent 0 growth). If Wizz are clever they could get a hold of the U.K to Turkey ULCC market well ahead of Ryanair and dominate MAN-Dalaman / Antalya.

 

[pug]

@EGCC_MAN that is a very sensible, objective and sobering post at a time when as you say emotions are running high.
I really can't see how LBA, LPL and MAN all support Wizzair ops but having said that other airlines survive at all 3.
There are at least a couple on here who I would describe as "in the know" that have strongly hinted about consolidation at MAN for Wizz and I believe that is the way it will go, however I am more than happy to be proven wrong

Looking at this objectively, if you look at the number of services pre-COVID (and pre-Brexit) from DSA, they had a quite significant operation from there. When Wizzair moved their ops to LBA ISTR its was at a much lower frequency than they’d had ex-DSA in 2019. This will reflect the significant reduction in demand that those routes were catered to serving. The Lincolnshire based traffic may have transferred to the London airports of course, but as there is no service from EMA by Wizzair I can only imagine LTN would have been the next sensible departure point for them. I don’t believe LBA is far enough away from the traffic base to be less attractive.

If the rumour is true then it’s a reflection of Wizzair trying to consolidate their Northern passenger market at one airport to reduce costs and increase load factors in the face of a much reduced market. Wizzair are unstable at the moment, this will only add to pressure to re-evaluate and become more efficient.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

My issue is this. Would MAG be willing to “rock the apple cart” inviting Wizz / doing a deal with them? Ryanair will aggressively respond no doubt but to what detriment to their programme at MAN (pulling one route to compete against Wizz on a duplicate route).

Going back many years, MAN learned a brutally harsh lesson when they chose to protect British Airways legacy services from competition by upstart LCC's. British Airways pulled out without a qualm; MAN was left floundering with the new generation carriers established and growing at competing airports instead. The management team incumbent at that time are long gone, but I spoke with a more recent CEO (not the current one) and was assured that this error would not be repeated.

An airport in MAN's situation should not play favourites. I can see a case for this at the likes of LHR / FRA / MAD / AMS / CDG where a major hub carrier is domiciled, but MAN is not in that position. The best course for them is to treat all carriers fairly and let the market decide the winners and losers. Central planning - attempting to prejudice outcomes - has a very poor track record. If a carrier is interested in serving the market and is prepared to fulfil the terms of the agreed contract, then the airport operator should not obstruct them.

I am not party to the finer details of Ryanair's current agreement at MAN, but both parties seem to be on cordial terms at present. MAG Group CEO - Ken O' Toole - cut his teeth as a senior Ryanair executive. He knows exactly what works for both parties; the businesses understand each other's needs. Ryanair can't overpay; MAG can't be a charity. So terms are agreed which work for both. As long as Wizz is not offered terms preferential to those enjoyed by Ryanair, then the playing field is level and there shouldn't be an issue.

Of course, Ryanair would compete with Wizz just as they do with current competitors at MAN. But this should not imply a major change of focus. According to our friend JERRY on this forum, Ryanair has listed an initial programme of 551 departures per week from MAN for S26 (with more expected to be added). But note that just 13 of those departures serve the six destinations offered by Wizz from LBA/LPL. They won't upend their plans to deal with this move (if it even happens).

Ryanair is set to base a 19th aircraft at MAN for S26 with a further frame taking the total to 20 in 2027 (credit: info from CCGE29 on here). Frequency increases on Eastern Europe routes are possible, but my guess is they'll just go where the money is at the time. As an aside, many of MAN's Ryanair Group East European routes are actually serviced by BUZZ (the visiting SP- registered division). The based fleet is much more focused on other markets.

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

The other major thing we are missing is when Ukraine open back up there will be a large VFR market / Tourism market also. Ryanair/MOL has alluded he’s ready to pull some aircraft from other bases and go heavy handed into the Ukrainian market. Wizz the very same.

When Ukraine / Russia finally agree a peace deal … I suspect Wizz will offer some Ukrainian services from Leeds, and Liverpool, Ryanair maybe all 3. If Wizz was to serve Manchester maybe there to.

The displacement of some Ukrainian population will now allow air services from the TPE route to the country. And several different cities.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

I wish I could believe that the Ukraine / Russia war could be brought to a peaceful negotiated solution soon. But that looks highly unlikely. 1000 fatalities daily in that conflict. Putin contends that Russia can still get it's way and eventually overrun Ukraine; his proposals for peace amount to a total capitulation by Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine believe that leveraging their technological advantage and targeting Russia's oil sector is a winning strategy for them ... it is certainly making a difference. Their idea of a peace settlement means the return to Ukraine of all occupied oblasts including Crimea. There are no obvious grounds for compromise at this stage with both sides intransigent ... the grinding war of attrition will continue.

Ryanair and Wizz are best served by focusing on other markets for the foreseeable future.

Apologies for straying off topic, but that war is a tragedy.

 

[Len Fish]

Two observations, if flights to East European cities from MAN has long been a weak spot as has been suggested why have no other airlines stepped in previously if there is an untapped, lucrative market there?
Secondly, on the subject of a level playing field for airlines using MAN we need to remember airports are businesses so in any negotiations/deal they will be looking to maximise their profits. Likewise the airlines and I would suggest an airline with 19/20 based aircraft would be able to drive a better deal with one say with only say 6 based aircraft. That said it must be a fine balancing act for any airport to attract new business without upsetting those already there on the same routes.

 

[Statto]

@EGCC_MAN - perfectly put. Eastern Europe is a huge missing gap at MAN, only resolved with either rapid expansion by Ryanair or as you say have said attracting wizz.

My issue is this. Would MAG be willing to “rock the apple cart” inviting Wizz / doing a deal with them? Ryanair will aggressively respond no doubt but to what detriment to their programme at MAN (pulling one route to compete against Wizz on a duplicate route).

Where has this rumour come from is what I really would like to know?

How I see it panning out - a small Wizz UK base in MAN (6 to 8 A/C). Serving duplicated routes that LBA/LPL have that can sustain all 3 airports serving them with both Ryanair / Wizz.

The rest of destinations all not served by Wizz at LPL or LBA but need a north west service and therefore which better airport to sustain that then MAN. Other destinations include your usual leisure … giving MAN 2 ULCC competitors on those and 3 holiday operators (one offering consistent 0 growth). If Wizz are clever they could get a hold of the U.K to Turkey ULCC market well ahead of Ryanair and dominate MAN-

Is eastern europe “a huge missing gap” from MAN. It looks to have a good range of destinations and passenger numbers (per the CAA) look reasonable to me. So how are you defining ‘massive’. Unless we know the natural passenger demand to/from greater manchester to these destinations, it’s very hard to say whether it’s massively underserved. We do know Ryanair have a huge operation at MAN and are the market leading carrier between the UK and Eastern Europe, so if there’s such a massive gap, it begs the question why they don’t know about it and/or why they haven’t acted on it.

An alternative theory is that Eastern Europe is actually well served across the North as a whole. There is good coverage from all three airports with the opportunity on many routes for local demand to be met at a local airport. Not perfectly of course, but probably better than most non-sunshine destinations. Naturally, if I was responsible for generating as much profit as possible for the shareholders of Manchester Airport, I’d be trying my hardest to change that. I wouldn’t want people from the LBA catchment area using LBA, I’d want them using MAN. In the same vein, LBA employs people to try and claw back passengers currently using MAN.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

STATTO -

I realise that your comment quotes another poster, but I used the term 'weak spot in MAN's portfolio' with reference to those routes served from LPL/LBA by Wizz. Not quite as emphatic as 'a huge missing gap'. However, I do stand by my assessment, as 13 Ryanair departures per week spread across the six destinations in question is a thin schedule. Warsaw at two to three departures per week (varies by season) stands out; Iasi and Cluj are unserved.

I would respond to your question as to why Ryanair haven't reacted to the 'massive gap' as follows. Carriers such as Ryanair deploy their scarce fleet resources on those routes which yield the highest return on investment. Eastern Europe is generally considered a low yield market, and many of the regular passengers using these routes purchase very few of the ancillaries which drive Ryanair Group profits. In a nutshell, Ryanair can expect to bring in far more revenue on a flight to a destination such as Ibiza, versus a similar sector length to a destination in Poland or Romania. Rest assured that Ryanair do know about the market choices available to them.

That Eastern Europe is well served across the North as a whole (as you contend) is not a theory, it is a fact. And the reason that LPL and LBA (and previously DSA) score well on these routes is actually because they are so price-sensitive. Until now, Wizz have enjoyed cheaper deals than MAN could (apparently) offer in a market where every cent counts. But as I mentioned earlier, that dynamic is about to change. In the near future, MAN will have a dedicated no-frills terminal ... the remodelled amalgamation of what we currently refer to as T1/T3. And that opens up the possibility of MAN finally being able to offer competitive terms to Wizz along the lines of what they pay elsewhere. This is the change which gives credibility to the current speculation, and would explain why Wizz didn't jump before now. But it is notable that Wizz tails are increasingly a familiar sight at many larger airports across Europe. This is a more recent trend, and it seems to reflect the direction of travel for the business ... pardon the pun.

I can't say whether Wizz will ultimately consolidate services at MAN or not. But there is now a stronger case for doing so than ever before. If MAN can match competing airports on price, then it's other USPs come into play. Will these be sufficient to seal the deal? Wizzair will decide that. Many of us on here will observe with interest, but the outcome will be what it will be, regardless of what any one of us on a forum would prefer to see.

LEN FISH -

Your post largely addresses similar concerns to those raised by Statto. However, you additionally make the point that a based fleet of 20 aircraft implies greater bargaining power than a proposed fleet of six. I see the logic, but it doesn't apply here. As far as we know, the rumour concerns the transfer of Wizz's inbound East European city services only ... ie. six specific routes. I haven't seen any suggestion that a based fleet is part of the proposal. That may conceivably follow in time, but it doesn't appear to be part of the present discussion with airport operators. Unless anyone here knows differently?

 

[Silvercity]

If these rumours are true, and lets hope they are not, I do wonder why Manchester Airport is so keen to porch this low value business from LPL and LBA, when both airports are covering the catchment areas in the north well. Unless Wizz are planning to halve their schedule and offer less seats than now. If not it is concerning to me why Manchester feels it must also have this Eastern European traffic from the other northern airports. Frankly I would expected Manchester to have more important fist to fry.

 

[Jerry]

do wonder why Manchester Airport is so keen to porch this low value business from LPL and LBA,

Profit and revenue. Each flight will bring in airline and passenger revenue for the airport. Between them how many passengers does Wizz carry to Leeds and Liverpool? 500,000 a year? That's a decent amount of passenger footfall for an airport.

 

[Bob O'JOb]

If these rumours are true, and lets hope they are not, I do wonder why Manchester Airport is so keen to porch this low value business from LPL and LBA, when both airports are covering the catchment areas in the north well. Unless Wizz are planning to halve their schedule and offer less seats than now. If not it is concerning to me why Manchester feels it must also have this Eastern European traffic from the other northern airports. Frankly I would expected Manchester to have more important fist to fry.

It's pretty basis business stuff, strengthen yourself, especially when it's at the expense of your competition. They're not a charity, money talks, which is what the spotters on here often don't seem to understand.

 

[White Heather]

If these rumours are true, and lets hope they are not, I do wonder why Manchester Airport is so keen to porch this low value business from LPL and LBA, when both airports are covering the catchment areas in the north well. Unless Wizz are planning to halve their schedule and offer less seats than now. If not it is concerning to me why Manchester feels it must also have this Eastern European traffic from the other northern airports. Frankly I would expected Manchester to have more important fist to fry.

Just because they can. MAG won't want LBA or LPL getting too much success. Its a cut throat business. Just as in football where the biggest clubs take all the best players that they don't really need, they'll happily offer a great deal to airlines if they can undermine competing airports in the process.

 

[Speedbird1]

Just because they can. MAG won't want LBA or LPL getting too much success. It’s a cut throat business. Just as in football where the biggest clubs take all the best players that they don't really need, they'll happily offer a great deal to airlines if they can undermine competing airports in the process.

Completely disagree.

MAG won’t care at all about LBA or LPL, this will be purely around getting a large volume of passengers with one airline through the door in one go. As mentioned above, Wizz could supply a big number of passengers per year which is all management at MAG will be focused on. It’s really simple…passengers = revenue. They also have a big infrastructure project to pay for and ultimately growing passenger numbers will be what pays for that.

If a by product of this that you weaken nearby airports then so be it. But it definitely won’t be a primary or even secondary concern for them.