POLL - BHX 2024 Passenger Predictions

[rollo]

Following Scottie Dogs latest post on April's stats passenger growth for the first four months is 15.48% which if continued through the year (big if) would give a year figure circa 13.2 million.

 

[IanFarquharson]

No chance !
12.75m max
But hope i am wrong 🙂

 

[Paulsstrange]

No chance !
12.75m max
But hope i am wrong 🙂

I hope your wrong too Ian 😉, anything 12.9 plus I'm happy 😊

 

[IanFarquharson]

Tom Screen saying more growth to come from easyjet, Ryanair and Wizz so I can see records pax levels in 2025 (but not 2024(

 

[nwoody2001]

So, the OFFICIAL Passenger Figure for BHX in 2024 is 12,849,094... The 2nd Busiest Year in BHX History!

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At 12,849,094, this means we were just 1% under our record 2017 figure, 1.63% above 2019 and 3.27% above 2018...

So well done to everyone who voted for the most popular response of between 12.7-13.0 Million which was the correct answer!

The question is, what will 2025 bring for BHX!

Lets start a new poll/thread soon!

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

I’m saying 13.3 million

 

[Scania1800]

2025 looks really interesting, Dubai could potentially overcome Dublin and become the no.1 destination of BHX.

 

[nwoody2001]

2025 looks really interesting, Dubai could potentially overcome Dublin and become the no.1 destination of BHX.

Unless you know something that we don't, I would be VERY surprised to see DXB become the Number 1 destination in BHX.

Granted we don't have the full 2024 figures but the BHX-DXB routes has not even recovered to 215 levels yet after Covid with BHX-DXB only carrying 591k pax in 2023 compared to between 610k-744k between 2015-2017. BHX-DUB on the other had carried 803k pax in 2023 +36% higher than BHX-DXB and over 60k pax higher than the BHX-DXBs highest ever record year, and outside covid times, that gap has never dropped below 22%!!!

• 2023: BHX-DXB 591k / BHX-DUB 803k (+36%)
• 2022: BHX-DXB 481k / BHX-DUB 673k (+40%)
• 2021: BHX-DXB 108k / BHX-DUB 183k (+69%)
• 2020: BHX-DXB 195k / BHX-DUB 231k (+18%)
• 2019: BHX-DXB 702k / BHX-DUB 943k (+34%)
• 2018: BHX-DXB 710k / BHX-DUB 923k (+30%)
• 2017: BHX-DXB 744k / BHX-DUB 906k (+22%)
• 2016: BHX-DXB 704k / BHX-DUB 921k (+31%)
• 2015: BHX-DXB 610k / BHX-DUB 780k (+28%)

So unless you know of the impending collapse of the BHX-DUB route or some pretty impressive growth in capacity on the BHX-DXB route on a scale of 3x daily flights, i cant see it happening!

 

[Ianbutty]

Another 10% increase for me. So, gulp, 14.1 million. Imagine the queues for the lift....

 

[Brum X]

I am going to go for around the 13.5 million so not quite as optimistic as Ian.

I fear TUI will let us down with routes cut back and maybe more cuts from Ryanair.

However I will be chuffed if we finally get over 13 Million ;-)


Will be booking my holiday to Gran Canaria in a few weeks with Easyjet, might even give Easyjet Holidays a go and see what they are like. I will defo be going with the orange airline though ;-)

 

[VC10]

I ll go for 11m . I am pessimistic about the second half of the year

 

[Brum X]

I ll go for 11m . I am pessimistic about the second half of the year

Ewwwwwwww 11 Million ?

 

[HPsauce]

My forecast is 13.5 million.
Some growth for Low cost carriers.
Modest growth on long haul, but a consolidation year for the holiday airlines.

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

My forecast is 13.5 million.
Some growth for Low cost carriers.
Modest growth on long haul, but a consolidation year for the holiday airlines.

Spot on I agree mate.

I’m still satisfied Etihad will be at bhx in 2025

 

[IanFarquharson]

13.2m-13.4m is my guess and forget Etihad !

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

13.2m-13.4m is my guess and forget Etihad !

Will do well I’ll try to forget Etihad