TheLocalYokel
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- #721
Assuming that the aviation industry will fully recover from the effects of the virus and then continue its growth of many decades - the uncertainty is the timescale - CWL will need some significant growth from TUI and Ryanair to build on its success of the last few years in recapturing passenger numbers, albeit it was still some way short of getting back to its pre-recession numbers before the virus struck. Incidentally, neither Liverpool, Newcastle nor East Midlands airports had done so either and Exeter took until last year.
Most of the top ten airports as measured by passenger volume recovered their pre-recession passenger numbers relatively quickly (within a few years) and by the time Covid came along were ahead of their pre-recession numbers by 30%-40% in most cases. That is a possible concern when it comes to Covid recovery. If CWL lags as it did with the recession turnaround it could be a problem.
However, there is no guarantee that it will be the same airports that recovered from the recession quicker or slower than others, as the case may be, that will do so in the Covid aftermath.
CWL’s fortunes always seem to be inextricably intertwined with those of BRS, and that fact cannot be ignored when it comes to TUI, or Ryanair, at CWL.
Jet2 at the moment is replacing Thomas Cook at BRS in terms of the size of the base (three aircraft). In that sense nothing has changed except that it has because TUI had already replaced some of the TCX capacity. Originally TUI was going to base six narrow bodies and a B787 at BRS for the whole of summer 2020. In the last couple of summer seasons with TCX still at BRS TUI’s base complement there was four narrow bodies (mixture of 757s and 738s) and a part time 787.
It therefore has to be asked with Jet2 effectively replacing TCX whether TUI will still need six narrow bodies and a 787 (the 787 would operate a mixture of long-haul and short-haul as it’s been doing there for two or three years). If not would CWL be a beneficiary by seeing at least on extra TUI narrow body moved across the river?
There are also rumours on the Dried Fruit that easyJet is to expand further at BRS. If the rumours are true the question of possible over-capacity at BRS might arise. Then there is the question how the enigmatic Ryanair will react to Jet2 and an even bigger easyJet presence at BRS.
So lots of possible ingredients into the mix and it’s all certainly something for CWL watchers to keep an eye on.
The scene will change anyway within the next few years if BRS loses its planning appeal and is stuck at 10 mppa indefinitely.
Most of the top ten airports as measured by passenger volume recovered their pre-recession passenger numbers relatively quickly (within a few years) and by the time Covid came along were ahead of their pre-recession numbers by 30%-40% in most cases. That is a possible concern when it comes to Covid recovery. If CWL lags as it did with the recession turnaround it could be a problem.
However, there is no guarantee that it will be the same airports that recovered from the recession quicker or slower than others, as the case may be, that will do so in the Covid aftermath.
CWL’s fortunes always seem to be inextricably intertwined with those of BRS, and that fact cannot be ignored when it comes to TUI, or Ryanair, at CWL.
Jet2 at the moment is replacing Thomas Cook at BRS in terms of the size of the base (three aircraft). In that sense nothing has changed except that it has because TUI had already replaced some of the TCX capacity. Originally TUI was going to base six narrow bodies and a B787 at BRS for the whole of summer 2020. In the last couple of summer seasons with TCX still at BRS TUI’s base complement there was four narrow bodies (mixture of 757s and 738s) and a part time 787.
It therefore has to be asked with Jet2 effectively replacing TCX whether TUI will still need six narrow bodies and a 787 (the 787 would operate a mixture of long-haul and short-haul as it’s been doing there for two or three years). If not would CWL be a beneficiary by seeing at least on extra TUI narrow body moved across the river?
There are also rumours on the Dried Fruit that easyJet is to expand further at BRS. If the rumours are true the question of possible over-capacity at BRS might arise. Then there is the question how the enigmatic Ryanair will react to Jet2 and an even bigger easyJet presence at BRS.
So lots of possible ingredients into the mix and it’s all certainly something for CWL watchers to keep an eye on.
The scene will change anyway within the next few years if BRS loses its planning appeal and is stuck at 10 mppa indefinitely.
