Assuming that the aviation industry will fully recover from the effects of the virus and then continue its growth of many decades - the uncertainty is the timescale - CWL will need some significant growth from TUI and Ryanair to build on its success of the last few years in recapturing passenger numbers, albeit it was still some way short of getting back to its pre-recession numbers before the virus struck. Incidentally, neither Liverpool, Newcastle nor East Midlands airports had done so either and Exeter took until last year.

Most of the top ten airports as measured by passenger volume recovered their pre-recession passenger numbers relatively quickly (within a few years) and by the time Covid came along were ahead of their pre-recession numbers by 30%-40% in most cases. That is a possible concern when it comes to Covid recovery. If CWL lags as it did with the recession turnaround it could be a problem.

However, there is no guarantee that it will be the same airports that recovered from the recession quicker or slower than others, as the case may be, that will do so in the Covid aftermath.

CWL’s fortunes always seem to be inextricably intertwined with those of BRS, and that fact cannot be ignored when it comes to TUI, or Ryanair, at CWL.

Jet2 at the moment is replacing Thomas Cook at BRS in terms of the size of the base (three aircraft). In that sense nothing has changed except that it has because TUI had already replaced some of the TCX capacity. Originally TUI was going to base six narrow bodies and a B787 at BRS for the whole of summer 2020. In the last couple of summer seasons with TCX still at BRS TUI’s base complement there was four narrow bodies (mixture of 757s and 738s) and a part time 787.

It therefore has to be asked with Jet2 effectively replacing TCX whether TUI will still need six narrow bodies and a 787 (the 787 would operate a mixture of long-haul and short-haul as it’s been doing there for two or three years). If not would CWL be a beneficiary by seeing at least on extra TUI narrow body moved across the river?

There are also rumours on the Dried Fruit that easyJet is to expand further at BRS. If the rumours are true the question of possible over-capacity at BRS might arise. Then there is the question how the enigmatic Ryanair will react to Jet2 and an even bigger easyJet presence at BRS.

So lots of possible ingredients into the mix and it’s all certainly something for CWL watchers to keep an eye on.

The scene will change anyway within the next few years if BRS loses its planning appeal and is stuck at 10 mppa indefinitely.
 
The mention of Thomas Cook by TLY, makes me wonder whether they will at some future time start chartering their own aircraft, I know that they are only on line, but they have strong backing financially, with their Chinese owners. There may come a time when the likes of TUI and Jet2, may not want to sell seat allocations on their planes. Maybe an opportunity for CWL with them.
 
There's obviously going to be a BRS effect one way or the other hopefully it's positive for CWL in the future. Without growth from TUI or Ryanair there is not much potential on the horizon apart from the odd frequency increase from Vueling. Looking at TUI they did surprise us before in adding a 3rd aircraft instead of basing it at BRS but as well didn't replace virtually anything of the lost Thomas Cook capacity either. Fingers crossed that the relationship between the 2 remains strong and we see more expansion from TUI in the future because I'm not sure the airport can afford to stagnate.
 
TUI airlines G-TAWN in from NCL this morning went into the hold. The problem was fog and insufficent fire cover. With the airport trying to get services and trade into CWL must be rather embarrised with the fire cover bit. They must have known in advance that the TUI aircraft was due in this morning. Someone got things wrong this morning.
 
Was there lack of fire cover or was the fire cover called elsewhere? If they had a call to the terminal it may mean manning levels were ok, just temporarily utilised elsewhere. It's happened before.
 
Looks like no lie in for me on the 5th Jan! My flight to TFS with TUI from Cardiff Airport has been moved forward 6 hours to 0825 which is a relief as I feared it had been cancelled when I saw the email in my inbox.
 
TUI Winter 2020/21 update
Sunday

Malaga 06.00-12.10 (from 28/3/21)
Lanzarote 11.25-20.10 (from 28/3/21 14.55-23.50)
Tuesday
Alicante 06.50-11.50 (from 23/3/21)
Tenerife 08.25-17.45 (from 30/3/21 14.25-23.45)
Wednesday
Paphos 11.10-22.00 (from 3/3/21)
Friday
Tenerife 10.30-19.55
Thursday
Lanzarote 10.30-19.30
Saturday
Alicante 06.15-12.20
Gran Canaria 13.45-23.05
 
At the moment it looks like TUI won't resume operations until the 18th December.
 
Bit gutted but not surprised that TUI have cancelled my flight to Tenerife on the 5th January. Was looking forward to seeing what they were like as an airline.
 

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9 trips in 9 days done 70 miles walked and over 23-00 photos taken with a large number taken at 20mph or above. Heavy rain on 1 day only
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