Route Development & Rumours

[gulftraveller]

I do not see any major ME legacy expansion from smaller regional airports. To do so would significantly increase the cost base. I accept the argument that one airline can steal a march over a rival by doing so. But it would also dilute the existing hubs.

QTR Chairman Al Baker favoured the idea of opening smaller destinations to take an advantage over e.g. EK. The concept was largely abandoned. The fact that QTR has not ordered the 321XLR shows that they are not interested in very long thin routes. Other considerations are premium uptake, important for e.g. the A321XLR economics and belly cargo.

 

[Aviador]

I do not see any major ME legacy expansion from smaller regional airports. To do so would significantly increase the cost base. I accept the argument that one airline can steal a march over a rival by doing so. But it would also dilute the existing hubs.

QTR Chairman Al Baker favoured the idea of opening smaller destinations to take an advantage over e.g. EK. The concept was largely abandoned. The fact that QTR has not ordered the 321XLR shows that they are not interested in very long thin routes. Other considerations are premium uptake, important for e.g. the A321XLR economics and belly cargo.

Yes it might dilute existing hubs to some degree.

I used regional airports tapping into the loco market as a similar example and how that lead to smaller airports gaining a larger proportion of their market share. Looking back to the 80s and early 90s before the low cost market took off. Airports like Gatwick for example had frequent 767 and A300 aircraft on med runs. The airlines had barely a flight from the smaller regional airports. Now because flights are operating from many of the regional airports, airlines have had to reduce the size of their aircraft from the larger airports. Doesn't Tui now only use 737-800/MAX on med runs with the 787 reserved for long haul?

Also look at how Emirates have moved into Newcastle where they have made a real success of operations from there. The move will already be diluting the market from neighbouring bases where the middle eastern airlines operate. They will either need to do the same or lose their market share.

It may not be what everyone wants to see but that would be the natural evolution and that is what I predict. I could be wrong but we will have to wait and see.

 

[Jerry]

Also look at how Emirates have moved into Newcastle where they have made a real success of operations from there. The move will already be diluting the market from neighbouring bases where the middle eastern airlines operate. They will either need to do the same or lose their market share.

Newcastle though is quite isolated as an airport. Edinburgh is a 2 hour drive away and Manchester is 3-4 hours.

 

[Aviador]

Newcastle though is quite isolated as an airport. Edinburgh is a 2 hour drive away and Manchester is 3-4 hours.

It doesn't matter if it is more isolated. Previously people from the North East had to travel to Edinburgh or Manchester to use the Middle Eastern options now other airlines from those airports will lose passengers to Emirates as the sole operator to the Middle East from Newcastle. Alternatively passengers will have to travel and park at extra cost to them.

 

[Jerry]

It doesn't matter if it is more isolated. Previously people from the North East had to travel to Edinburgh or Manchester to use the Middle Eastern options now other airlines from those airports will lose passengers to Emirates as the sole operator to the Middle East from Newcastle. Alternatively passengers will have to travel and park at extra cost to them.

Yep but if Newcastle was 90 minutes from say Manchester Airport Emirates wouldn't have gone there. That isolation encouraged Emirates and helps other hub routes as well ie Air France and Lufthansa. But also notice no other ME3 airline has gone to Newcastle.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

It doesn't matter if it is more isolated. Previously people from the North East had to travel to Edinburgh or Manchester to use the Middle Eastern options now other airlines from those airports will lose passengers to Emirates as the sole operator to the Middle East from Newcastle. Alternatively passengers will have to travel and park at extra cost to them.

I think the impact will have been felt more by KL amd BA.

 

[Aviador]

I think the impact will have been felt more by KL amd BA.

Indeed the impact will have been felt by KLM and by BA at NCL but a substantial number of passengers leak to other regions from Yorkshire and the North East to regions where more options are available whether that be the South East, Scotland or the North West. Ultimately it isn't the airports or the airlines that control this, it will be market forces. Just as people demand flights to Europe from their local airport they will on reachable options further afield.

 

[Jerry]

I think the impact will have been felt more by KL amd BA.

Both of whom are still pretty strong at NCL with each operating something 4 daily flights. Also between them Air France and Lufthansa with Emirates there's a lot more choice and a lot more opportunity to mix and match itineraries.

Just as people demand flights to Europe from their local airport they will on reachable options further afield.

They may demand them but sadly that doesn't mean they're feasible or profitable for the airlines.

I do generally think that if LeedsBradford wants to attract a ME3/Turkish type airline it'll need several European hub routes to be established first. Unless the Yorkshire mayor's would be willing to subsidise such a route.

 

[Statto]

I do generally think that if LeedsBradford wants to attract a ME3/Turkish type airline it'll need several European hub routes to be established first.

With the market data and intelligence that everyone has today, I’m not sure why really.

 

[gulftraveller]

Also look at how Emirates have moved into Newcastle where they have made a real success of operations from there. The move will already be diluting the market from neighbouring bases where the middle eastern airlines operate. They will either need to do the same or lose their market share.

They selected NCL because, at that time, the EK destination was GLA. But it appears to hold its own, even with EK starting EDI. So who knows.

 

[White Heather]

All I can say is that its clear LBA management are less negative about LBAs prospects than some. If they weren't, they may as well not bother talking to Middle Eastern airlines at all and just give up. The fact is though that they have, and they say they are confident we will have a route out there by 2027.

Let's see who proves to be correct!

 

[dmrodgers]

I'm just a little worried that the type of equipment that can use our short runway with full payloads will have a negative effect on our passengers who these day seem to prefer flying on 'the big birds' for long haul flights.

 

[HX3]

It’s roughly the same flight time to the ME3 bases as New York, Boston and Toronto. All of these are served successfully by single aisle aeroplanes from regional airports in the UK and continental Europe, and people use those services without any issues. Having flown myself across the pond on a 757 and twin aisle aircraft, there was no difference in comfort level. Runway performance fully loaded may be something to consider for LBA, but that doesn’t impact the customer, just the airline yields.

 

[Aviador]

I'm just a little worried that the type of equipment that can use our short runway with full payloads will have a negative effect on our passengers who these day seem to prefer flying on 'the big birds' for long haul flights.

You need to see the seating plan options for the A321XLR. You could very easily change your view.

 

[Peter Barber]

I have flown a couple of times on the Air Transat A321LR from Faro to Toronto and had no problems at all on the transatlantic flights of 8 hours and 20 minutes. The flights over were on the A330, and to be honest, I found the A321 to be just as comfortable, with plenty of leg room and the added bonus of easier boarding an deplaning. I am not sure the A321XLR would deter passengers because it is not a “big bird”, with a single aisle and a smaller cabin size. I certainly would not have an issue flying from Leeds to Toronto on an A321XLR, and would much prefer that rather than flying to Manchester, which I am forced to do now. In talking to many people on the YYZ to MAN flights, a great deal of them were heading over the Pennines to the Leeds catchment area anyway. It was very convenient flying directly to LBA from YYZ, and the sooner they get somebody back in the rout, the better.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

All I can say is that its clear LBA management are less negative about LBAs prospects than some. If they weren't, they may as well not bother talking to Middle Eastern airlines at all and just give up. The fact is though that they have, and they say they are confident we will have a route out there by 2027.

Let's see who proves to be correct!

The Heathrow route was discussed at last Wednesdays community meeting.

 

[lbaspotter]

The Heathrow route was discussed at last Wednesdays community meeting.

Go on now you’ve dropped the Heathrow bomb!
What did Vincent Hodder have say about it and was anything shared that we on forum didn’t know already?

 

[LBAYORKIE]

Go on now you’ve dropped the Heathrow bomb!
What did Vincent Hodder have say about it and was anything shared that we on forum didn’t know already?

Its as much as anything about how things are said. You could say 'no chance' with a smile on your face suggesting the opposite. For anyone with questions to ask these community meetings are the ideal forum.

The more pro airport people attend the better.

 

[Jerry]

All I can say is that its clear LBA management are less negative about LBAs prospects than some. If they weren't, they may as well not bother talking to Middle Eastern airlines at all and just give up. The fact is though that they have, and they say they are confident we will have a route out there by 2027.

Let's see who proves to be correct!

Tbf though they are going to be positive and they're not going to voice any concerns in public.
As for a route to the Middle East/Istanbul by 2027 that may well happen but who with? Pegasus, WizzAir and FlyDubai are very different airlines to the likes of Qatar Airways, Turkish Airlines and Emirates.

 

[White Heather]

Tbf though they are going to be positive and they're not going to voice any concerns in public.
As for a route to the Middle East/Istanbul by 2027 that may well happen but who with? Pegasus, WizzAir and FlyDubai are very different airlines to the likes of Qatar Airways, Turkish Airlines and Emirates.

No, but they could just keep quiet about it. Instead, they have voluntarily gone on record via a minuted meeting, to say they are in discussions and confident for future success, not only to the middle east but also the USA .