Route Development & Rumours

[Finger66]

Now this is an absolute long-shot and by far a long way from becoming reality but with the UK coming under increasing pressure to tap into remaining North Sea Oil reserves could we see ABZ return to the domestic network? Regardless of if, and that remains a big if currently, oil does start to flow again from the ME the situation out there will remain very volatile for a good while yet - if not forever. Appreciating the Greens won't agree but why on earth aren't we being more self-sufficient?

 

[YorkshireLad]

I don’t see it. It was struggling under Eastern for years anyway and the oil boost will only be temporary anyway, with the meteoric rise of green energy production. Also it would rely on Loganair deciding to operate to LBA, and we know how that’s been going for the past decade

 

[Finger66]

Without being unkind I think the fact Eastern operated it never helped. But agree lots of factors to consider to take into consideration re any reinstatement of the route. Ultimately I just wanted some discussion on this thread with it being so quiet

 

[752]

Its a shame we are scraping the bottom of the barrel to have a conversation at the minute with airport seeming so quiet. As I mentioned all airports around us seem to have enjoyed sizeable expansion / new routes. Middle East crisis isnt going to help however not a route to Cork can be announced. Seems eerily quiet. Hopefully AENA have something up their sleeves.

 

[Statto]

I’m not sure its true that all airports other than LBA have seen sizeable expansion.

 

[752]

I’m not sure its true that all airports other than LBA have seen sizeable expansion.

LPL = +1 easyJet based AC & +1 Ryanair based AC for S26
NCL = +3 easyJet based AC
EMA = TUI 40000 extra seats for S26 compared to S25.

Then Manchester securing new routes/airlines/based units after another, so yeah I would say my point has validity.

 

[lbaspotter]

You want expansion now.

But with the current constraints seen as the half the terminal is a building site, Where are you putting all those extra passengers?

We just can’t handle it this summer, It really is that simple..

 

[Finger66]

You want expansion now.

But with the current constraints seen as the half the terminal is a building site, Where are you putting all those extra passengers?

We just can’t handle it this summer, It really is that simple..

Plenty of off peak capacity available. Doesn't have to be from based units

 

[White Heather]

Plenty of off peak capacity available. Doesn't have to be from based units

Thats fine, until your off peak flight is delayed and all its passengers are still in the airport when the rush starts again. Remember that during the current work, with the terminal restricted, its likely that there is a maximum capacity stated on the fire certificate that will be well below 'normal' ,reflecting the reduced space and potentially slower evacuation times. If so, the airport wont be allowed to have more people within the terminal than stated. Again, maybe not a problem, until things go wrong. Which they do with non based flights regularly.

 

[SierraHotel]

My concern is once the "terminal is a building site" excuse expires, then what will we rely on?

 

[White Heather]

My concern is once the "terminal is a building site" excuse expires, then what will we rely on?

No excuse then, but the ACC have been told existing airlines have expansion plans, so lets just hope 2027 brings more and excuses are not needed.

 

[Jerry]

Now this is an absolute long-shot and by far a long way from becoming reality but with the UK coming under increasing pressure to tap into remaining North Sea Oil reserves could we see ABZ return to the domestic network? Regardless of if, and that remains a big if currently, oil does start to flow again from the ME the situation out there will remain very volatile for a good while yet - if not forever. Appreciating the Greens won't agree but why on earth aren't we being more self-sufficient?

I think the UK domestic regional scene is dead and i don't see it recovering.

 

[Statto]

LPL = +1 easyJet based AC & +1 Ryanair based AC for S26
NCL = +3 easyJet based AC
EMA = TUI 40000 extra seats for S26 compared to S25.

Then Manchester securing new routes/airlines/based units after another, so yeah I would say my point has validity.

The airport coordination reports for lba, ema and lpl show the number of seats filed as

LBA +227,000 more seats (summer 26 vs summer 25)
EMA +219,000 more seats
LPL +170,000 more seats

I appreciate that in the modern age of social media where we have airports posting news (as they should) and AV influencers like SeanM excitedly tweeting new route news. But the total number of seats is going to be influenced by things that might not stick in the mind or be deemed newsworthy

- longer / shorter operating seasons
- bigger / smaller aircraft
- swapping out ‘w’ flights for based aircraft

 

[Aviador]

I think the UK domestic regional scene is dead and i don't see it recovering.

We need to see government policy change to kick start domestic air travel again. High speed rail is dead so the only way now is to promote aviation again. Aircraft will continue to become cleaner and more fuel efficient. The co2 argument will deminish as time goes by. #GetUKDomesticFlightsMoving

 

[Speedbird1]

My concern is once the "terminal is a building site" excuse expires, then what will we rely on?

The airport coordination reports for lba, ema and lpl show the number of seats filed as

LBA +227,000 more seats (summer 26 vs summer 25)
EMA +219,000 more seats
LPL +170,000 more seats

I appreciate that in the modern age of social media where we have airports posting news (as they should) and AV influencers like SeanM excitedly tweeting new route news. But the total number of seats is going to be influenced by things that might not stick in the mind or be deemed newsworthy

- longer / shorter operating seasons
- bigger / smaller aircraft
- swapping out ‘w’ flights for based aircraft

Slot filings don’t reflect what is on sale or will be flown however. An additional 229k seats based on an average 189 seat aircraft over a 30 week summer season would mean an average of an additional 5.7 flights a day. For context, an additional based aircraft tends to deliver approx 200k seats over a whole year.

Even with longer seasons, bigger aircraft, that’s still very much an overly optimistic view and probably doesn’t reflect what’s on sale. I’m sure @lbaspotter with his excellent work on what is on sale would know better though.

 

[robsh34]

With the current situation I think airports as a whole are in for a messy year. I am currently in Australia and the news is reporting that they keep something like 30 days worth of aviation fuel as an emergency supply. They haven't had to tap into it yet but will need to soon.
I would imagine that it's a similar story in a lot if countries.
If this war continues then it won't be long before airlines start to cut back flights or consolidate them as the cost of fuel rises and the supply decreases.

I am currently due to fly back to Manchester on the 31st via Abu Dhabi. At this stage I don't think that will be happening.

 

[Statto]

Slot filings don’t reflect what is on sale or will be flown however. An additional 229k seats based on an average 189 seat aircraft over a 30 week summer season would mean an average of an additional 5.7 flights a day. For context, an additional based aircraft tends to deliver approx 200k seats over a whole year.

Even with longer seasons, bigger aircraft, that’s still very much an overly optimistic view and probably doesn’t reflect what’s on sale. I’m sure @lbaspotter with his excellent work on what is on sale would know better though.

That is the case with the initial slot filings, but this is the start of season report which should closely reflect the on sale schedule. Other than Ryanair to Cork, it all seems to stack up to me. The main increases are

Easyjet 2 x weekly to BCN (19,000 seats

Jet2, 171 more flights 37,000 more seats (increases to Agadir, Almeria, Reus, Dubrovnik, Bourgas, Pisa, Verona and a few others, offset by some reductions to Tenerife, Ibiza, Larnaca and Palma)

KLM 14,000 more seats from same number of flights, so presumably bigger a/c on some flights

Ryanair 121,000 more seats
Agadir +22,000
Warsaw +35,000
Krakow +26,000
Alicante +20,000
Dublin +13,000
Riga +11,000
Malaga +11,000
Cork +11,000 (not on sale)
Then lots of other smaller increases which offset the loss of BVA which was 39,000 seats last year

 

[Jerry]

We need to see government policy change to kick start domestic air travel again. High speed rail is dead so the only way now is to promote aviation again. Aircraft will continue to become cleaner and more fuel efficient. The co2 argument will deminish as time goes by. #GetUKDomesticFlightsMoving

With fuel prices going up and APD going up I don't see it happening. Domestically the train is taking over on many of these routes. If you look at Aberdeen with a 1 stop in York or Edinburgh from Leeds you can be in Aberdeen in 5 1/2 hours roughly for half to 2/3rds the price of Loganair at Manchester. If we look at Loganair and what they're doing they're shifting capacity to a market where the train isn't a competitor the Channel Islands and they're the only airline who'll do such a route. Sadly for avgeeks there's limited options now.

 

[Aviador]

@Jerry’s suggestion that one can reach Aberdeen from Leeds via Edinburgh in approximately five and a half hours:

If this is intended as a positive assessment of our current transport links, it is unpersuasive to say the least. This perspective implies that a rail journey exceeding five hours is a viable substitute for the efficient one hour flight services previously operated by  BMI and Eastern Airways from Leeds Bradford to Edinburgh, Glasgow, and Aberdeen.

Regardless of either stance on the environmental or logistical merits of rail versus air, it is difficult to view this transition as anything other than a regression of UK connectivity. It feels like we are taking more backward steps than forward ones.

Nonetheless, it is noteworthy that Leeds Bradford Airport appears committed to the sector. With plans for a decent sized domestic baggage reclaim area set for completion by early next year, the airport authorities evidently maintain confidence in the continued relevance of domestic aviation.

 

[pug]

If this is intended as a positive assessment of our current transport links, it is unpersuasive to say the least. This perspective implies that a rail journey exceeding five hours is a viable substitute for the efficient one hour flight services previously operated by  BMI and Eastern Airways from Leeds Bradford to Edinburgh, Glasgow, and Aberdeen.

Regardless of either stance on the environmental or logistical merits of rail versus air, it is difficult to view this transition as anything other than a regression of UK connectivity. It feels like we are taking more backward steps than forward ones.

Nonetheless, it is noteworthy that Leeds Bradford Airport appears committed to the sector. With plans for a decent sized domestic baggage reclaim area set for completion by early next year, the airport authorities evidently maintain confidence in the continued relevance of domestic aviation.

I agree, though I think as the traditional support for domestic routes - those with alternatives that don’t involve journeys on water - has dwindled due various reasons, the numbers don’t seem to stack up any more. Seeing it now with HUY-ABZ having been cut, and I know there are people in the Humber region who are now forced onto a lengthy rail or road journey for their commute but the harsh truth is that the number of those journeys had dwindled to a few hundred a month from a few thousand just ten years ago. It’s simply uneconomical now, hence all the regional carriers going to the wall over the last few years. Could the Government help support these companies? Possibly yes, but what they should really be doing is focusing on investment in transport that works and that will last, I’m thinking things like the LBA parkway station etc. Maybe some time down the line it will become possible to link LBA up with LHR again, that would make sense. Maybe if easyjet do open a base then they might see fit to add a domestic route here or there? But in the grand scheme of things I think the data of having regional airlines in the UK are all but over now sadly, even with the cleaner and potentially more efficient powerplants coming online.