The Continuing Saga of Brexit...

[TheLocalYokel]

We won't be leaving the EU.

The only slight glimmer of hope for the leave campaign triggering article 50 was Boris Johnson being PM.

Now he has ruled himself out of the running, the leave campaign only has Micheal Gove and he is forgettable at best. The only other prominent leave campaigner was Nigel fromage, and he is as popular as getting HIV.

We're staying in Europe guys, I'm quite confident of it. The leave guys won't like it, but, it's fell apart for them.

May or May Not who now seems odds-on to be the next Conservative leader and next PM says that she will honour the referendum decision. Then again Gove kept saying publicly through the campaign that he would never want to be prime minister. He'll probably get his wish but it does show, yet again, that you can't trust anything most politicians say.

 

[User001]

News reports I saw said she would not persue the EU exit?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

News reports I saw said she would not persue the EU exit?

I didn't hear her candidature speech this morning but I did read this on the BT news page later in the day which is part of a long article on the Johnson, Gove, May et al saga. We'll still have to see if she turns words into actions if she becomes PM.

Mrs May - who was a low-key supporter of Remain during the referendum - made clear she will not attempt to back away from last week's vote to leave the EU, saying: "Brexit means Brexit."

In a further olive branch to Leave supporters, she said she would create a new Government department, headed by a Cabinet-level minister who had campaigned for Leave, to oversee the UK's departure from the EU.

 

[Brum X]

Im sorry User001, but i have friends who are HIV positive. I find your comment comparing Nigel Farage and HIV as quite offensive.

 

[Ray Finkle]

In her announcement today, May said there will be no early General Election, and that she will not trigger Article 50, which allows the UK to leave the EU, until an exit strategy is clear.

She added that under her leadership there will be no second EU referendum, saying "Brexit means Brexit".

"The campaign was fought, the vote was held, turnout was high and the public gave their verdict."

http://www.cityam.com/244497/theresa-may-formally-announces-plans-run-conservative-party

She has said that she will not attempt to pull the UK out of the European Convention of Human Rights.

http://rightsinfo.org/breaking-theresa-may-will-not-try-leave-european-convention-human-rights/

 

[User001]

Cheers Ray,

Still, she has said she will not pull out of the EHCR. So, with that, and the trade agreements meaning free movement, attaching ourselves to EU open skies for aviation and not being in the Euro anyway, it seems we will technically not have a 'Brexit' anyway. The supposed 'controls' we are aiming to get back are dwindling by the day to the point we may as well stay in the EU.

 

[Ray Finkle]

The devil may (hopefully) be in the detail. She would not pull the Article 50 trigger 'until there is a clear exit strategy', something which could take many years to obtain, if at all.

As soon as the process is started the UK is in a very weak position. The 2 year clock starts ticking and an agreement has to be reached and ratified by all 27 members, if not then the UK leaves empty handed. Something which cannot happen.

Before starting the formal process the UK has sought informal talks and would require some guarantees, the EU has replied that as soon as Article 50 is triggered then talks will begin. As long as this stalemate holds then nothing will move.

attaching ourselves to EU open skies for aviation

This is just one of the areas where it's a completely ridiculous decision to leave.

If Britain wants to retain access to the EASA (which it will have to unless they want to negotiate separate agreements with each individual member state) then it will still need to pay the same amount of money that it does now and UK airlines will still have to abide by the rules that they do now. The difference is that the UK will no longer be at the negotiating table and will have no say about the rules which it's airlines have to obey.

I'd like to know how that is 'taking back control'?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Your thought echoes mine about the clear exit strategy, Ray, and the time it might take to achieve. If a PM and government didn't want to leave the EU they could go on ad infinitum saying that a clear exit strategy had not yet been identified.

However, such an approach would prolong the uncertainty with the current worries magnified.

 

[Aviador]

Over the past few weeks we have had a lively debate about Brexit, the UK referendum on staying or leaving the EU. In the past the forum has been largely neutral so far as politics go but leaving the EU has potential to affect everyday lives and affect the way people travel throughout the European Union from the UK. So it goes to say, there are a number of potential economic scenarios for and against Brexit. In a move to stir "our ship" away from the political side of things I've created this thread to discuss economic news good and bad over the years ahead post Brexit. The economy is the driving force of the aviation industry so this thread is where economic news can be placed that is either good or bad. Discussions can be either related or unrelated to the aviation industry. They can include events in the UK, Europe and Worldwide.

 

[Ray Finkle]

 

[Ray Finkle]

The Last Leg sums up British politics

Warning: There is strong language with some very naughty words, if you are easily offended then do not click play.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

All the leading Leave campaigners have now disappeared from the fight: Johnson, Gove, Fox and now Leadsom who has just stood down from the race to be the new Conservative leader and prime minister.

So it seems certain that May will be the new PM. She was said to be a lukewarm supporter of Remain and took a while to make a public declaration.

If this means that a new PM will be in place almost immediately then that can only be a good thing in my view. We need to begin to tackle the uncertainty in the country, in the EU and even in the wider world as quickly as possible following the Brexit vote.

I could never understand why they were going to take until September before counting all the votes from Conservative Party members.

 

[Aviador]

Boeing's jobs pledge shows UK 'is open for business', says Cameron
Boeing is to double the number of people it employs in the UK and will build a new £100m facility, a move which David Cameron said was a sign of confidence in the economy despite uncertainties over Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ge-shows-uk-is-open-for-business-says-cameron

Despite the political spin it's good news nonetheless.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Good news but I find it interesting that the new facility will be in Scotland, where there is political and other clamour for another referendum regarding independence. The recent referendum saw a majority of Scottish voters wishing to remain in the EU.

If Scotland does gain independence and remains in the EU what's left of the UK won't have the facility: Scotland and the EU will.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

A fresh look at APD?

Now that the new PM's front line team for negotiating BREXIT and trying to forge a new path for Britain in the world - Boris Johnson, Foreign secretary, Liam Fox International Development Secretary and David Davis 'Brexit Secretary' - has been announced, I wonder about the sort of thing that might be done to try to encourage stimulation of the UK's economy. With a new Chancellor in place as well - Philip Hammond - we could see an entirely new approach.

I wonder if they will consider reducing or even abolishing APD. Many say this would bring in more money for the country than the cash that this tax generates by encouraging inbound tourism and making travel cheaper for business and leisure. It could be argued that a weaker pound will have the effect of generating more leisure visitors anyway but a reduction in the APD toll might be looked at seriously by the new government.

If APD was reduced or abolished Ryanair might have to reconsider its policy on favouring Europe over a post-Brext UK. They always like to encourage tax reductions of this sort as it's one of their major public planks of strategy.

 

[Aviador]

Wishful thinking I think. I think it is more probable APD will be on the backburner after recent events.

Housing market 'falters amid Brexit campaign and vote'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36783938

As it will be sometime, possibly years before we know the true extent of Brexit there is a sizable amount of uncertainty now with home owners staying put with the risk of negative equity. Home ownership is often regarded as the driver of the economy and with this survey indicating an eight year low would this would put us back in recession territory.

 

[Aviador]

 

[User001]

Do you know what, I voted remain.

However, I'm willing to concede that the past few weeks have shown it may have been a good idea to leave.

With the terror attack in Nice, Germany and Spain have imposed border checks with France. Turkey is under a military coup and far right groups are growing across Europe..

It seems Europe is about to self implode the way it is, maybe the UK is doing the right thing and getting the hell out of there.

It's like leaving a night club before a mass brawl kicks off!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

If (when is far more likely) the Bank Rate is reduced still further that will make mortgages a bit cheaper which normally boosts the housing market. The B of E hasn't got much room to manoeuvre though before the Bank Rate hits negative territory.

 

[Aviador]

The trouble with that is most of the terrorists are home grown, most have islamic roots but are home grown nonetheless. Leaving the EU is only like jumping out of the fire into the frying pan and that's before the Northern Ireland situation is reignited. Furthermore, any attempt to destabilise Europe politically will potentially lead to growing unrest on the continent. Whatever happens with Brexit, it is in our interests Europe and the EU remains firmly together.