The weather - General Thread

[Aviador]

The temp been on the road versus in someone’s back garden will be different. That’s due to other factors, traffic and the heat given off the tarmac itself. The air temps will still be different.

Heathrow Airport is notorious for breaking hot temperature records due to all the concrete and running jet engines. If the current recorded temperature record is broken today I would expect its more likely going to be in an urban area rather than out in the countryside somewhere.

 

[Aviador]

For the record the Met Office has apparently debunked the social media poster who originally posted the above image.

Even if the actual temperatures were altered by somebody the overall message of doom we are all burning up is portraid by the latest Met Office maps.

I am in my 40s and during my life I can recall a couple of big heatwaves. I don't remember the summer of 1976 as some keep referring to but I can recall temperatures in region of 35 or 36'c. If you record the temperatures for long enough sooner or later high and low temperatures records will be broken.

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

Heathrow Airport is notorious for breaking hot temperature records due to all the concrete and running jet engines. If the current recorded temperature record is broken today I would expect its more likely going to be in an urban area rather than out in the countryside somewhere.

Accurate way of measuring would be 1,000ft high then adjust accordingly. Again even then urban areas create higher temps then countryside. Naturally.

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

View attachment 26344

For the record the Met Office has apparently debunked the social media poster who originally posted the above image.

Even if the actual temperatures were altered by somebody the overall message of doom we are all burning up is portraid by the latest Met Office maps.

I am in my 40s and during my life I can recall a couple of big heatwaves. I don't remember the summer of 1976 as some keep referring to but I can recall temperatures in region of 35 or 36'c. If you record the temperatures for long enough sooner or later high and low temperatures records will be broken.

I don’t believe that. That’s an easy defence of course. My opinion is what’s wrong with reading numbers. Nothing at all.

 

[Kevin Farnell]

The Met Office has issued a yellow thunderstorm warning for most of Southern and Eastern England tomorrow -

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-07-20

I love a good thunderstorm (as long as I'm not out in it) and will happily sit by an upstairs window to watch it. It should hopefully reduce the temperature and humidity.
Meanwhile, the BBC is reporting 'light rain and a gentle breeze' for my postcode tomorrow.

Kevin

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

The heatwave green hysteria is out of control

The unhinged eco-dread over the heatwave exposes how millenarian environmentalism has become

www.spectator.co.uk

The quote I like “Let’s have some perspective. Propagandistic terms like ‘extreme weather’ and ‘Weather of Mass Destruction’ are meant to whip up fear in the populace every time there’s sunshine or floods”

Fear worked in this first initial months of covid. As members of SAGE. And now here we are … scaring, well failing whilst trying, to scare the public.

 

[Aviador]

The heatwave green hysteria is out of control

The unhinged eco-dread over the heatwave exposes how millenarian environmentalism has become

www.spectator.co.uk

The quote I like “Let’s have some perspective. Propagandistic terms like ‘extreme weather’ and ‘Weather of Mass Destruction’ are meant to whip up fear in the populace every time there’s sunshine or floods”

Fear worked in this first initial months of covid. As members of SAGE. And now here we are … scaring, well failing whilst trying, to scare the public.

Meanwhile the government is failing to reach its tree planting targets. I've no doubt man is influencing the weather and climate to a certain degree but the media need to stop preaching fear to us, we get it. Just get on with dealing with solutions that are workable in the real world without destroying the economy and our sanity.

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

Don't be daft @Aviador. Proper forrest management could be done easily, would employ people up and down the country, give vital skills back into the economy, and be good for both the environment and economy. I mean look at the Chevin that could be a decent forrest if managed correctly. Not saying it isn't but certainly could be improved.

If this government truly cared about the environment they wouldn't ship tonnes of "recycling" off to Turkey to be burnt. Yeah really environmentally friendly that. Virtue Signalling at its best by government. I appreciate that’s a side track.

 

[Ashley.S.]

Don't be daft @Aviador. Proper forrest management could be done easily, would employ people up and down the country, give vital skills back into the economy, and be good for both the environment and economy. I mean look at the Chevin that could be a decent forrest if managed correctly. Not saying it isn't but certainly could be improved.

That would be nice, we certainly don't want to see our forests lost to housing estates or lost to wildfires because it's too hot and irresponsible humans do damage it, etc. by leaving rubbish and whatnot...

If this government truly cared about the environment they wouldn't ship tonnes of "recycling" off to Turkey to be burnt. Yeah really environmentally friendly that. Virtue Signalling at its best by government. I appreciate that’s a side track.

I agree, that this is very counterproductive. I remember watching a report years ago saying that some recycling companies weren't recycling at all and were just shipping it off and getting dumped on beaches as it was cheaper than actually recycling anything! Apparently, the councils that employed said contractors weren't aware that this was happening and said they'd investigate the reports, but I find that hard to believe!

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

That would be nice, we certainly don't want to see our forests lost to housing estates or lost to wildfires because it's too hot and irresponsible humans do damage it, etc. by leaving rubbish and whatnot..

So reality is the public are to blame. Which is correct. But decent Forrest management would prevent litter in said Forrest’s. National parks etc. Not that we should baby sit the public but if it works, aids the environment, gets more trees in the ground. Do it.

And surely these fires don’t just start themselves? Every fire needs a combustion doesn’t it? I’m reading online fire services think compost which has overheated and gone up in flames. With everything really dry, like a haystack it caught and spread. Rapidly.

Others include BBQ’s, Fag ends, glass maybe left on the lawn etc for period of time. It’s sad seeing these fires but 2 days of +35 degree heat whilst inevitably didn’t help certainly wasn’t the the sole causation factor. You need something for the fire to start. An ignition.

 

[Aviador]

View attachment 26332

I suspect big tech may ask for this to be removed. Enjoy whilst you can.

Interesting that around Hull it was warmer on the left than right, Midlands/Manchester warmer on left then right, and in Norwich warmer on the left then right.

Red = warning/alarm. Red = provoke anxiety and panic.

In my recent visit to Tenerife I noticed the Spanish have similar colour code warning systems as here in the UK. What was immediately apparent though was what we class as Red for "Extreme Heat" the Spanish class as a Yellow warning classified at a "risk". If the temperature is below 34'c in the UK the Met Office classifies it as an Amber for "extreme heat", where as in Spain it isn't even classified as a warning. In Spain only when the temperature rises above 38'c does it become an Amber warning which they call an "Important risk" and only when the temperature rises above 44'c does the Spanish system issue a Red warning.

Temperature	UK (Extreme Heat)	Spain (Risk, Important Risk)
26	Yellow	-
27	Yellow	-
28	Yellow	-
29	Yellow	-
30	Amber	-
31	Amber	-
32	Amber	-
33	Amber	-
34	Amber	-
35	Amber	-
36	Red	Yellow
37	Red	Yellow
38	Red	Yellow
39	Red	Amber
40	Red	Amber
41	Red	Amber
42	?	Amber
43	?	Amber
44	?	Amber
45	?	Red

Now without wanting to restart a debate which will descend into some kind of conspiracy style sling match this does highlight the UKs over dramatising of what is essentially just a heatwave. In my opinion although there is a risk, the risk isn't as great as it is made out to be so long as people stay hydrated.

 

[Ashley.S.]

I'm not too sure about the different warnings, I've never been abroad so can't really comment from experience but from what I've been told, the heat levels are a lot bearable in the continent compared to here, therefore their levels can be slightly higher than ours because it doesn't pose a higher risk. Maybe as we start seeing these higher temperatures more regularly and more consistently over time e.g. regular 4+ days of wall-to-wall hot sunshine, we might start to adapt and change the thresholds for the warning levels. The temperature right here in Falmouth right now is showing as 27c, feels like 31c so my bedroom is only slightly cooler than outside right now. It's going to be another difficult night to sleep, especially since I now need to be up at silly o'clock for work...

 

[Aviador]

I take your point and the "feels like" temperatures are based on the humidity. When the humidity is high the temperature feels hotter than it actually is. Interestingly when the UK hit a new record temperature it was unique because the humidity was actually quite low similarly to heat on the continent. Importantly the critical temperature regardless of humidity is body temperature which is between 36'c and 37'c. I assume the same will apply for other animals that have to live with heat variations.

What I find interesting is the Spanish method for warning of heat indicates only a problem once normal body temperature is exceeded. In the UK the Met Office has opted for several degrees lower. Personally, I think that although we are not geared up for hot weather in the same was as they are in Spain, so far as danger to health, the Spanish system seems more logical as it is aligned closer with what the human body can cope with.

On the flip side, why don't they issue extreme cold warnings for temperatures below 18'c as hypothermia is possible below this temperature.

 

[Ashley.S.]

From what I understand, Amber is the "prepare" level and red is the limit, which rightly so should be set when it reaches or exceeds body temperature. I'm not too sure why it's referred to as "extreme" heat, surely it's just heat, right? This is how I'd set the limits:

Amber = warnings for temperatures above average in summer, and below average in winter since we're apparently not equipt to deal with it right now being British. As our temperatures change over the years to come, when these warnings we currently get are issued, we should learn how to deal with them to avoid constantly having to issue said warnings. No doubt apparent human stupidity requires these said warnings to be issued, otherwise, someone would probably try and sue the government or something saying that they weren't prepared because no warning was issued about the weather, suggesting that common sense must be dead or something i.e. stay out of the sun between 11am-3pm in the summer and wrap up warm in the winter...

Red = warnings for temperatures above body temperature in summer and below what the body can take in the winter. After all, it makes sense to issue such a warning if it endangers life, right?

 

[Aviador]

The trouble with using averages is the Met Office I think uses a 20 year average system. This means what is average now might be somewhat different in the future or to what it was in the past.

 

[Ashley.S.]

Yes, a 20-year average just doesn't seem right, something like a 5-10 year average would probably be more suitable to use...

 

[Aviador]

Yes, a 20-year average just doesn't seem right, something like a 5-10 year average would probably be more suitable to use...

I'm not convinced averages should be used at all.

 

[Ashley.S.]

I'm not convinced averages should be used at all.

How would you propose the data is collected on temperatures, or would you rather them not record them at all?

 

[Aviador]

They should be based on the average of the total ever recorded.

 

[Kevin Farnell]

I'm not convinced averages should be used at all.

'Average is a very vague term. Mathematically, there are 3 types of average -

1. Mean. This is found by adding up all of the numbers the you have and dividing it by the number of numbers. This is what most people think of as 'average'.

2. Median. The median is the number in the middle, when all the numbers are placed in order of magnitude.

3. Mode. The mode is the number in a set of numbers that occurs the most.

Personally, I think there is value in looking at both short and long term average (mean) data. Is a trend recent, or has it been occurring over a long period? If it has been occurring over a long period, how has that trend varied over that period? Is any rate of change faster now or was it faster in the past?
We then start getting into statistical data. Here, we have to be very careful, because statistics can be manipulated to say what you want.

A funny example of this comes from many years ago when the Rugby competition was 'The Five Nations'. England had finished top with Wales in fourth place. A Welsh lad working with us stated -

'Wales finished fourth, while all England could manage was fifth from bottom'.

Statistically correct, but for anyone not aware of the competition, it totally skews the result.

All I know, is at the moment I'm much too hot!

Kevin