Route Development & Rumours

[White Heather]

Waiting for an announcement for a service from Leeds/North(Linton-on-Ouse) to Kigali, Rwanda)))))))

Well I wonder if that announcement re Linton on Ouse will lead to a few inbound LBA flights bringing in asylum seekers? Or will they go to a quiet airport like Teesside or DSA to give them something to do?

 

[XEROX]

I’d much prefer a local based airline or another tour operator to offer Florida and maybe a bit more with some 787’s or A330neos then I would a brand no one has heard of.

If you mean local as in Jet2, then if the carrier ever bought Airbus XLRs, then that may be a hint for possible scheduled flights across the pond. Quite a few of the American carriers have acquired these beautiful planes for transatlantic routes, predominantly for 3rd/4th tier routes, I wouldn't be surprised if we get one in the next few years.

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

Jet2s A321 are for predominately short haul leisure. If they go long I wouldn’t be surprised to see A330’s

 

[White Heather]

Jet2s A321 are for predominately short haul leisure. If they go long I wouldn’t be surprised to see A330’s

I wouldn't hold your breath as Steve Heapy said only recently that they had no plans to fly to the States. It's been a graveyard for airlines in the past and the costs are horrendous given the need to have spare aircraft and crews on the other side of the pond to cover tech aircraft, delays, crews out of time etc. Florida also has more than it's fair share of disruption due to weather in hurricane season, resulting in major airline disruption and costs.

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

I wouldn't hold your breath as Steve Heapy said only recently that they had no plans to fly to the States. It's been a graveyard for airlines in the past and the costs are horrendous given the need to have spare aircraft and crews on the other side of the pond to cover tech aircraft, delays, crews out of time etc. Florida also has more than it's fair share of disruption due to weather in hurricane season, resulting in major airline disruption and costs.

I was more inferring that the A321s are for short if they went long it wouldn’t be the 321. He was never say never, always says don’t have plans yet, there’s more to be done - reality is they are likely to be considering it. Ultimately what’s left after much of Europe is done.

 

[XEROX]

I was more inferring that the A321s are for short if they went long it wouldn’t be the 321. He was never say never, always says don’t have plans yet, there’s more to be done - reality is they are likely to be considering it. Ultimately what’s left after much of Europe is done.

Would disagree, the A321XLR would bring Leeds comfortably in range to New York / Miami / Toronto / Boston. Would also add, that this plane was only announced in 2019 pre-pandemic, and its maiden flight was for this month, so not sure if it was announced before or after the Jet2 boss's comments. But agreed, once Europe has been covered, which other markets could you crack with this modern fuel-efficient jet.

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

Jet2 wouldn’t touch those first of all. New York was to keep the 75 occupied during winter.

Leisure long haul is Caribbean/Florida/Mexico - an A321 wouldn’t be best suited for those types of missions. Not for a leisure carrier wanting to shift 250+ people at once.

 

[White Heather]

Would disagree, the A321XLR would bring Leeds comfortably in range to New York / Miami / Toronto / Boston. Would also add, that this plane was only announced in 2019 pre-pandemic, and its maiden flight was for this month, so not sure if it was announced before or after the Jet2 boss's comments. But agreed, once Europe has been covered, which other markets could you crack with this modern fuel-efficient jet.

Steve Heapy's comments re (not) flying trans Atlantic were within the last 6 weeks.

 

[Aviador]

Steve Heapy's comments re (not) flying trans Atlantic were within the last 6 weeks.

Like Philip Meeson previously said he also said never say never. To be honest though why try change what already works?

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

Like Philip Meeson previously said he also said never say never. To be honest though why try change what already works?

Is it about changing or is it about now diversifying the product.

As a Tour Operator long haul is the next big thing once they've smashed Europe. And tbh there isn't much left of Europe to do. Product diversifying and additions of other things of course.

 

[LBA787]

IMO it’s on the cards, however the card it’s written on is at the bottom of the pile.

In no particular order the business needs to;

1. Reduce the seasonality of the airline by operating more all year round destinations, Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Gambia, Cape Verde etc

2. Skiing Holidays

3. Charter work (LGW this winter has been a good success)

4. Potential new base/s - LGW, DUB, BOH, PFO or LCA the latter doubling as the eastern rescue base.

5. Cover other UK departure points not currently severed using either W patterns or operations from the overseas bases, INV, ABZ, MME, DSA, HUY, LPL, NWI, NQY, CWL & SEN could all be in with a shout. There is some catchment area overlap with operational bases but it could work much the same way TUI do it.

6. Bed in the new A321neo fleet gaining valuable operational knowledge before potentially looking at the A330-900neo.

just my thoughts.

 

[XEROX]

Like Philip Meeson previously said he also said never say never. To be honest though why try change what already works?

Maybe to make more money, especially in an environment where competition is rife. American carriers have already announced they will use recently purchased XLRs on 4th tier transatlantic routes, I would Imagine we would be in that bracket, I think long haul loco is nearly upon us.

 

[Aviador]

Who knows. We know Ryanair have being touting it for years.

 

[White Heather]

Well my personal view is that it would be a huge risk to go long haul. They have a huge number of new A321s on order. The last of these are not scheduled for delivery for some 6 years. It doesn't seem likely that they are going to order a batch of XLRs as well. They need to be certain that after the recent troubles, and with these aircraft on order, that they make money in a market they know will deliver. Europe. If they really want to expand then do so on the other side of the Med., In North Africa.
The costs if setting up for long haul are enormous. The risks are high. The profits from doing so wont materialise for some considerable time, particularly given the cost of buying aircraft suited to trans Atlantic operations in sufficient quantities to make it to work. It will, in my view, just add to mounting debt and do little to boost profits in the short term.
There's a reason why so many carriers that do these flights have ended up in trouble. Jet2 don't need this market to be successful. They already are.

 

[White Heather]

Who knows. We know Ryanair have being touting it for years.

But still never have!

 

[Len Fish]

The fact Jet2 have ordered 57 A321 neos (part fleet replacement, part fleet expansion) is probably as good an indication as to where their future priorities lie and it’s not long haul across the Atlantic.

 

[Finger66]

The comment around more year round destinations makes a lot of sense. Keeps a/c and staff working through the winter and also more year round income. Just doing one flight a day on say Cape Verde, Gambia, Sharm etc. at sociable times Is all that’s needed.

I agree that long haul is a huge risk but there has to be a point when other markets are saturated. Unless some further untapped Euro countries become mass market tourist destinations but not sure there are too many of those left.

So perhaps further bases are a safer bet for expansion.

Or, as an outside bet, look to buy someone else!

 

[White Heather]

It's always surprised me that there isn't any interest in flights and holidays to the Baltic, Sweden in particular. It's a beautiful country and surprisingly warm in summer and with an extensive coastline. We have this fixation with heading towards the Mediterranean when there are parts if Europe that are relatively untouched by tour companies and airlines. Perhaps it's something Sweden discourages but it does seem a shame. No citybreaks to Gothenburg either. Or Helsinki.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

It's always surprised me that there isn't any interest in flights and holidays to the Baltic, Sweden in particular. It's a beautiful country and surprisingly warm in summer and with an extensive coastline. We have this fixation with heading towards the Mediterranean when there are parts if Europe that are relatively untouched by tour companies and airlines. Perhaps it's something Sweden discourages but it does seem a shame. No citybreaks to Gothenburg either. Or Helsinki.

The trouble with Sweden, Norway and Finland is they are very expensive, especially eating out and alcohol. Ive never been to a Baltic state but Ive heard excellent reports.

 

[Coathanger16]

I've been to Oslo, Helsinki and Tallinn and I would recommend all three. We went before Christmas each time and they all have their own Christmas markets. Not sure what they'd be like in the summer though.

As for where Jet2 goes in the near future, Egypt and Morocco (and to a lesser extent the Azores and Cape Verde) stand out to me as places they currently don't serve. Any other European destinations that are unserved at this point are likely smaller destinations that would be sufficiently served by 1 or 2 flights a week from the larger bases.

In terms of bases, they now have all the major UK markets served so I'd be surprised to see any new bases in the near future.

The problem with W patterns is crew hour limitations. For flight crew, the limit for a 4 sector day (e.g. BRS-ALC-EXT-ALC-BRS) is at best 11hr45m and at worst 9hrs (depends on what time the crew report). The BRS/ALC/EXT example would require a duty time of 13hr35m, so the crew would run out of hours before the final sector.

You could have the aircraft fly BRS-EXT-ALC-EXT-BRS, but that way you only get 2 revenue flights and it would likely be more profitable & efficient just to keep the aircraft at BRS all day.

The A321 has ~20% more seats than the B737, so over the next 5 years that will allow Jet2 to grow their passenger numbers without necessarily adding any new routes/bases. Anything major from Jet2 likely won't be until closer to the end of the decade or after 2030.