Route Development & Rumours

[Bob O'JOb]

Do you know that for sure or is that just your negativity? The latter not being allowed!

Yup, for sure.

 

[LBA4EVER]

Any updates on air blue, do we know when they might be an announcement?

 

[gulftraveller]

They and PIA seem to be having difficulties obtaining the TCO (Third country Operator's) certificate in UK.

I notice that the Pakistani authorities are cracking down on their airlines which do not have sufficient aircraft to cover their international routes. As a result, Serene Air can no longer operate international routes. Other airlines may be affected.

 

[The Pole]

Any updates on air blue, do we know when they might be an announcement?

Vanished into thin 'Blue Air'

 

[LBAYORKIE]

They and PIA seem to be having difficulties obtaining the TCO (Third country Operator's) certificate in UK.

I notice that the Pakistani authorities are cracking down on their airlines which do not have sufficient aircraft to cover their international routes. As a result, Serene Air can no longer operate international routes. Other airlines may be affected.

Being Pakistan I suspect there are other 'considerations'

 

[ex_crew]

If I remember correctly , SAS.lauched Leeds Bradford and Humberside at the same time both pulled around the same time . At that time it all felt rushed , here one minute and both gone the next .I'm sure if the planning was more thorough , right aircraft , proper marketing and better timings it would work.
Not only to serve Copenhagen and Denmark but also Malmö and Sweden via the bridge .

 

[White Heather]

If I remember correctly , SAS.lauched Leeds Bradford and Humberside at the same time both pulled around the same time . At that time it all felt rushed , here one minute and both gone the next .I'm sure if the planning was more thorough , right aircraft , proper marketing and better timings it would work.
Not only to serve Copenhagen and Denmark but also Malmö and Sweden via the bridge .

The flights ended when they were supposed to, and at the time they did, they were stating that the following summer season, flights would be upgraded to an A320. Then the whole programme was axed with no reasons given by SAS or LBA.

 

[lbaspotter]

If I remember correctly SAS to Copenhagen was twice weekly Mon & Fri which had really bad flight times that didn’t allow for onward long haul connections.
When bmi ran the Copenhagen service first with Embraer 145 then upgraded to Fokker 70 operating at daily Mon-Fri it did connect nicely into SAS long haul and other star alliance partners flights.

Vueling to Barcelona was another failure due to having a crap flight timings along with the Centralwings midnight express service to Warsaw..

 

[White Heather]

If I remember correctly SAS to Copenhagen was twice weekly Mon & Fri which had really bad flight times that didn’t allow for onward long haul connections.
When bmi ran the Copenhagen service first with Embraer 145 then upgraded to Fokker 70 operating at daily Mon-Fri it did connect nicely into SAS long haul and other star alliance partners flights.

Vueling to Barcelona was another failure due to having a crap flight timings along with the Centralwings midnight express service to Warsaw..

But the Central wings flight to Warsaw, our first to that city, had seriously good loads, despite the late at night operating time. So much so that it was negatively impacting the LOT flights operating over the hill. I was informed by airport management it was that which led to the flight being axed despite strong loads.
You're right about the timing of the SAS and Vueling and honestly you could add BA to Heathrow to that list, as the timings were never ideal and always inadequate.

 

[pug]

But the Central wings flight to Warsaw, our first to that city, had seriously good loads, despite the late at night operating time. So much so that it was negatively impacting the LOT flights operating over the hill. I was informed by airport management it was that which led to the flight being axed despite strong loads.
You're right about the timing of the SAS and Vueling and honestly you could add BA to Heathrow to that list, as the timings were never ideal and always inadequate.

The SAS was an odd one. It was attracted to Humberside on the back of industry support due to the investment in offshore renewable energy in the Humber region and the clear synergies between it and Denmark. I seem to recall an onward journey analysis conducted with KLM that found that there was a common traffic pattern of passengers connecting in Schipol to get to Copenhagen. This is why they put in an I seem to remember either a Monday to Friday or Sunday to Friday daily flight on a CRJ-200. Unfortunately it only ran for one season and never returned as originally planned. Did it not then transfer to LBA for a bit on a much reduced frequency before that too was pulled after another season? I don’t recall the service running concurrently.

It was built to service a niche market, Sun Air did run some flights to Billund from Humberside for a time but this was temporary to support the scale up of the Siemens factory in Hull.

Does surprise me that LBA has no Scandinavian or German connections, suspect Lufthansa will be on the cards. For these more specialist naturally thinner routes it might require a centralisation of the services from MAN to maximise potential.

 

[gulftraveller]

But the Central wings flight to Warsaw, our first to that city, had seriously good loads, despite the late at night operating time. So much so that it was negatively impacting the LOT flights operating over the hill. I was informed by airport management it was that which led to the flight being axed despite strong loads.
You're right about the timing of the SAS and Vueling and honestly you could add BA to Heathrow to that list, as the timings were never ideal and always inadequate.

But Centralwings also served Manchester. LOT always struggled with the low cost model and Leeds was pulled at a time when it was decided to refocus its operations elsewhere, I supppse a last ditch attempt to make it work. LOT also did well from MAN so that was not the reason LBA was pulled. Airport officials will always explain the cancellation of a service by quoting poor timings, competition from another airport, even, I recall on another thread, that an airport used financial incentives to persuade an airline to move. It’s just life and, as with LBA-WAW, where there is a sound market, somebody else will jump in.

 

[pug]

But Centralwings also served Manchester. LOT always struggled with the low cost model and Leeds was pulled at a time when it was decided to refocus its operations elsewhere, I supppse a last ditch attempt to make it work. LOT also did well from MAN so that was not the reason LBA was pulled. Airport officials will always explain the cancellation of a service by quoting poor timings, competition from another airport, even, I recall on another thread, that an airport used financial incentives to persuade an airline to move. It’s just life and, as with LBA-WAW, where there is a sound market, somebody else will jump in.

Exactly this. I recall when the SAS flights were pulled at HUY much was made of the reliability of the service by the airport and various local public figures, but the truth is the flights were quite poorly supported on the whole and so SAS/Cimber saw no reason to continue. KLM do a good job of offering that one stop connection to places like CPH anyway and so ultimately there was nothing lost when it went apart from more flights on the departures boards.

This will be the same elsewhere. When a flight is pulled it’s usually because it’s not a good performer. Ryanair have this down to a fine art because they will fly from small regional airports like Teesside and their continental equivalents but they are used as collateral for whenever (insert airport authority here) has the audacity to increase their airport charges and Ryanair can drop them using it as leverage.

The directors of DSA said similar when easyJet pulled their outstation ops by blaming the timings and frequency of the AMS services as a reason why they weren’t supported. Clearly if easyJet felt that they could be supported they’d have put more services on, but actually I think by that point they just wanted to get into LBA.

 

[Statto]

Airport officials will always explain the cancellation of a service by quoting poor timings, competition from another airport, even, I recall on another thread, that an airport used financial incentives to persuade an airline to move. It’s just life and, as with LBA-WAW, where there is a sound market, somebody else will jump in.

In the case of SAS LBA-CPH service the route development team tried to persuade SAS *not* to launch the service with the frequency / timings that they went with. The problem with casually saying "someone else will jump in" is that often there aren't that many options and the job is made harder when an operator drops the route. The LBA team at the time I think knew enough about the market to anticipate that it wouldn't really work and the inevitble failure would make it harder to establish the route in the future (as seems to have happened).

 

[pug]

In the case of SAS LBA-CPH service the route development team tried to persuade SAS *not* to launch the service with the frequency / timings that they went with. The problem with casually saying "someone else will jump in" is that often there aren't that many options and the job is made harder when an operator drops the route. The LBA team at the time I think knew enough about the market to anticipate that it wouldn't really work and the inevitble failure would make it harder to establish the route in the future (as seems to have happened).

I think in the case of a rapid replacement that would hold true, but after a period of over a decade and with favourable data it might not be too much of a problem. Copenhagen is a bit of a niche route I would suggest, as are the German destinations. I think LBA is more likely to gain a Scandinavian destination through a low-cost airline than a flag carrier in future if we are to see one.

Like I said ref HUY, the only reason they put a route into there was because there was strong industry calls for it but in the event the industry didn’t support it and so it was discontinued. Talking to the aviation development director at the time he said how they had planned on using larger aircraft in 2014/15 and increasing frequency on the route to make it viable for day trips. Obviously neither of which happened because of the lack of support. The decision to move to LBA with such a low frequency was bizarre and perhaps suggestive of a foot half in approach which in the end never translated into anything more.

 

[Finger66]

The SK CPH service certainly was Short And Sweet! Times have changed in the industry and I would agree that any CPH service will be via an LCC in the future.
I do also agree that LH to at least 1 German destination is a distinct possibility

 

[oldendays]

Not that it's relevant but I remember Cimber Air operating some of the LBA-CPH flights with the short body CRJ. This airline once flew between Humberside and Esbjerg with Nord 262s and ATR42s.

In fact, I think all the SAS CPH flights were operated by Cimber. The aircraft were disguised as SAS though.

 

[Seasider]

Humberside July 1987




Sorry to "drift off"

 

[Starflyer]

The SK CPH service certainly was Short And Sweet! Times have changed in the industry and I would agree that any CPH service will be via an LCC in the future.
I do also agree that LH to at least 1 German destination is a distinct possibility

The SAS service was indeed one that everyone looked at and thought "that'll never work" and indeed it didn't. The schedules were just crazy.

Predictions for Summer 2026 (to hack a well-known saying):

Something old
Something new
Something domestic
Something blue

 

[lbaspotter]

The SAS service was indeed one that everyone looked at and thought "that'll never work" and indeed it didn't. The schedules were just crazy.

Predictions for Summer 2026 (to hack a well-known saying):

Something old
Something new
Something domestic
Something blue

Oh you tease @Starflyer?
Is that 4 different things, if so how's this for a guess for 3 of them..

Old = Surely not an Eastern Airways return to Southampton & Aberdeen!
New = Newquay - Skybus ATR
Domestic = Heathrow - Loganair (BA Codeshare)
Blue = Islamabad - Air Blue

 

[Finger66]

Oh you tease @Starflyer?
Is that 4 different things, if so how's this for a guess for 3 of them..

Old = Surely not an Eastern Airways return to Southampton & Aberdeen!
New = Newquay - Skybus ATR
Domestic = Heathrow - Loganair (BA Codeshare)
Blue = Islamabad - Air Blue

Never truer words spoken in jest!