Route Development & Rumours

[Finger66]

Flybe seem to have had less cancellations recently so:
Are they finally getting their act together?
Have they just been lucky?
Have they finally got enough “serviceable” aircraft to operate their current schedule?

I would have thought that SOU and NQY have to be prime contenders for BE ex LBA with even ABZ as an outsider.

As for BA and LHR that would possibly be the best Xmas present for us all...........

 

[A400]

Airports are regularly in talks with numerous airlines, but talks don't always result in services. With regard to LHR, as post COVID recovery continues, slots will become more and more valuable. Therefore, airlines will use those slots for routes that provide the highest profits.

Still good to hear rumours though.

 

[Finger66]

Whilst I agree that airlines will use slots for the most profitable routes, there is also the argument of protecting market share. Possibly slightly hypothetical but consider:
BA losing LBA long haul pax to KLM with no LHR service. Not all BA’s supposedly loyal following will route MAN-LHR-XXX when adequate Connex are possible via AMS from LBA.
BE, who are trying very hard to re establish themselves, miss out on SOU and NQY because A N other carrier gets in there first. Look at LBA-BHD as a prime example of that. No competition on an a route should be a no-brainier here.
We have said so many times that the LBA potential is there, it just needs the right aircraft at the right times with the right frequency to work. E.g. not a 1900 dep to CPH twice a week - doomed to fail before it starts! LS in particular have proven the potential. BZ many years before.
And with improved infrastructure in the offing, this must increase the LBA appeal.
And finally the industry has bounced back amazingly from COVID, but it isn’t there yet, but the general travel industry forecasts for 2023 are for further growth so I remain optimistic for LBA.

 

[LBA4EVER]

I saw movement in the route development room to the point my finger started to twitch with excitement as i was attempting to tap the keys, but nah nothing so far haha

 

[Finger66]

So far......................

 

[White Heather]

I made comments about the Newquay route and it's disappearance at the last Consultative meeting. LBA gave absolutely nothing away - either as to the circumstances surrounding Eastern disappearing off to HUY where the catchment area is nowhere near LBAs, or why Flybe haven't jumped at the chance to fly a route that did well for them, even managing an E190 flight on Saturdays a few years back. We know they don't yet have the aircraft but even so, we are talking next summer, and lack of aircraft hasn't stopped them starting other routes that to the casual observer at least make less sense.

Of course, given the absence of an LBA base, it's the age old problem. A W leg is needed unless they base at Newquay! If it doesn't fit into the network, it doesn't happen.

As for BA, LBA have confirmed talks with BA previously - it seems to be an ongoing process, but as ever it appears that LBA to LHR is seen as low priority. The continuing rail disruption would have made such flights more attractive than ever, and a chance to get off to a good start, but so far, nothing doing. LBA are adamant it needs to be a night stopper, and therein lies the problem..

 

[752]

Flybe are still all over the place, Don't get me wrong, carefully selected routes and frequencies would be fantastic, but the reliability needs to be there.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

I made comments about the Newquay route and it's disappearance at the last Consultative meeting. LBA gave absolutely nothing away - either as to the circumstances surrounding Eastern disappearing off to HUY where the catchment area is nowhere near LBAs, or why Flybe haven't jumped at the chance to fly a route that did well for them, even managing an E190 flight on Saturdays a few years back. We know they don't yet have the aircraft but even so, we are talking next summer, and lack of aircraft hasn't stopped them starting other routes that to the casual observer at least make less sense.

Of course, given the absence of an LBA base, it's the age old problem. A W leg is needed unless they base at Newquay! If it doesn't fit into the network, it doesn't happen.

As for BA, LBA have confirmed talks with BA previously - it seems to be an ongoing process, but as ever it appears that LBA to LHR is seen as low priority. The continuing rail disruption would have made such flights more attractive than ever, and a chance to get off to a good start, but so far, nothing doing. LBA are adamant it needs to be a night stopper, and therein lies the problem..

I dont know what makes LBA think a night stopper is so essential. I would be happy to see the previous previous schedule.

 

[Finger66]

BA night stop across plenty of their network so that cannot be used as an excuse on their part. Lack of suitable slots at LHR can be cited as a reason. Whilst a night stopper would be ideal I would happily have them back on the route at any frequency for now

 

[White Heather]

I seem to recall plenty of complaints on here that we had no night stopper before, and that we missed vital connections. Certainly the business community demanded the early flight South. What we had befire didn't cut it as far as BA were concerned, but neither are they prepared to invest in a night stop.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

I seem to recall plenty of complaints on here that we had no night stopper before, and that we missed vital connections. Certainly the business community demanded the early flight South. What we had befire didn't cut it as far as BA were concerned, but neither are they prepared to invest in a night stop.

I think most who wanted a night stopper on here were thinking more about point to point traffic - something which I thought was a red herring. If LBA are so sure a night stopper will work then maybe they should agree to subsidise it long enough to prove it is viable.

 

[White Heather]

I think most who wanted a night stopper on here were thinking more about point to point traffic - something which I thought was a red herring. If LBA are so sure a night stopper will work then maybe they should agree to subsidise it long enough to prove it is viable.

Na. They were wanting to connect with long haul flights which our late first southbound flight missed, or which gave them a heart attack trying to make the connection, especially if delayed.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

Na. They were wanting to connect with long haul flights which our late first southbound flight missed, or which gave them a heart attack trying to make the connection, especially if delayed.

There was lots of discussion about point to point, much of which carried over to Flybe. Having said that I accept there is the issue of earlier connections. If LBA are so adamant a night stopper will be economically viable they need to offer an incentive, if they are correct then it will cost them nothing.

 

[Statto]

Na. They were wanting to connect with long haul flights which our late first southbound flight missed, or which gave them a heart attack trying to make the connection, especially if delayed.

Correct. Same reason Sabena nightstopped back in the day. Why KLM night stop all over the UK. Why Lufthansa, Air France etc night stop at their UK regional departure points. The nature of long haul flying into the major western european hubs starts with a wave of early morning arrivals and then a subsequent series of departure and arrival waves. If you want to feed these waves with connecting traffic from regional outposts on a limited frequency operation (e.g. 3 x daily) then it works best starting with an early morning departure; hence the need for a nightstopper.

Of course this means that the slots required at the hub airport to meet this pattern tend to be in high demand. What happened with BA I believe is that the airport worked hard to offer a deal to get them to operate but they served the route with some slightly odd slot pairs that were a bit imperfect (to say the least) in terms of meeting the departure and arrival waves at Heathrow. The flights that were timed well operated with very high load factors. But there were too many duds. The early morning departure from Heathrow was too early. The last evening departure from Leeds was too late. There were too many destinations where the connection worked in one direction, but not the other. So a nice 2 hour connection in Heathrow departing to, say, San Francisco but then 5 or 6 hours in Heathrow coming back.

 

[LBA4EVER]

You only have to look back at the 90s, BMA with their 5 daily dc9 and 737 service to LHR, back when there was slightly less long haul connecting traffic compared to now, so with a decent early morning departure and correct marketing it can be a success.

 

[ChrisBBB]

There was lots of discussion about point to point, much of which carried over to Flybe. Having said that I accept there is the issue of earlier connections. If LBA are so adamant a night stopper will be economically viable they need to offer an incentive, if they are correct then it will cost them nothing.

The chat about point to point was for similar reasons.
There was a lack of viability as you could not travel down ahead of a standard working day, whereas you could by the alternative of trains
Likewise, as Heather pointed out - the late(r) departure created risk when trying to connect at Heathrow.
Flybe also had the lack of code share which increased the risk further.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

The chat about point to point was for similar reasons.
There was a lack of viability as you could not travel down ahead of a standard working day, whereas you could by the alternative of trains
Likewise, as Heather pointed out - the late(r) departure created risk when trying to connect at Heathrow.
Flybe also had the lack of code share which increased the risk further.

My assumption is that those pax on the FlyBe service were point to point and the numbers were very low. I think even with a night stopper point to point would be similarly low (although a bit more than Flybe) so not enough to justify a night stopper. Its all down to attracting more passengers who want earlier connections in a morning and those who want later connections on the last northbound. As I said LBA having morning to lose by subsidising if they are so certain a night stopper would make money. Ultimately though BA have more profitable uses for those prime time slots at LHR.

 

[White Heather]

My assumption is that those pax on the FlyBe service were point to point and the numbers were very low. I think even with a night stopper point to point would be similarly low (although a bit more than Flybe) so not enough to justify a night stopper. Its all down to attracting more passengers who want earlier connections in a morning and those who want later connections on the last northbound. As I said LBA having morning to lose by subsidising if they are so certain a night stopper would make money. Ultimately though BA have more profitable uses for those prime time slots at LHR.

Why shouldn't it make money? BMi/British Midland and before that, BA/Northeast/BKS had night stoppers that left for LHR early, around 7am, and we're usually full or nearly full. Aircraft up to A320 or 737 300 operated that flight. They operated from the early 60s to 2009.

KLM have been doing the same for years and years with great loads. More people travel long haul now than back then, and whilst the trains are faster today, they are nowhere near reliable, nor is arriving at Kings Cross ideal if travelling from LHR.

What makes you think LBA have not offered BA incentives to re-start the route? There is however a big difference between incentives and commercial stupidity. I can tell you that LBA have limits to be which they be are prepared to go. We've just be seen what happens to airports that make a rod for their own back by offering incentives that erode profit and become the norm that all airlines expect. It doesn't end well.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

I'm saying it can make money and that's why LBA shouldn't be afraid to offer a subsidy.

However point to point travellers have a very minor part to play as they are so small in numbers.

 

[White Heather]

I'm saying it can make money and that's why LBA shouldn't be afraid to offer a subsidy.

However point to point travellers have a very minor part to play as they are so small in numbers.

You seem to suggest they haven't offered a subsidy. You dont know that. Nobody knows what's been offered, but LBA dont make stupid offers to entice airlines in. It's not their policy.