I would have thought the route has now had enough time for the operator to access whether it can be sustained as a long term operation.
Tourist figures are showing good inward growth into the u.k. and staycation has risen dramatically, the weakeness of the pound against the euro are all a minus for this route. There is likley to be little business travel as all the top companies in Cork are related to the public sector.
Without the Brexit vote if I had been a betting man my money would have been on the route folding within a short period.
I hope I am wrong and the route stays as some people, will use its demise if happens, as a stick to beat LBA management.
See what you are saying here, Tarn Spotter. Don't necessarily agree. This is a route that survives daily from the likes of Newcastle, Bristol, Birmingham, 4xweekly from Southampton (crucially with departures on Monday, Thursday, Friday and Sunday) and up to 3xdaily from Manchester. There is no way in hell that it should not also work from LBA. As is normally the case with this sort of thing, LBA has drawn the short straw with the wrong days of operation and a short bedding in period at a time of airline uncertainty.
With regards the business comment, I agree that it is not going to attract the same sort of business commitment as LHR - JFK but to suggest that the business opportunities are unlikely is very far wide of the mark. What I am suggesting is that a daily flight (or at least 6xweekly) could attract perhaps 5 people per sector who would otherwise travel using other means. What this does is add to the 32 or so per sector the flight is averaging, bringing it up to 37. Now we are looking at flights that are more than half full on each sector. 1 or 2 of these business passengers might even pay the business price. We are then looking at an operation that was just breaking even to one that is now making a small profit. Next, we factor in the additional customers who use the service because they have access to it as a daily concern. Let's add another 5 people per sector for kicks. Now we are looking at averaging 42 per sector. All of a sudden, we are looking at a route that is reasonably healthy rather than one that is on the borderline. Frankly, if there were Monday, Friday and Sunday flights, I think you could go further and add another 10 to 15 passengers to those particular flights as people would then be able to access Leeds and Cork as weekend destinations, which they currently cannot. If flights are going out with between 42 and 57 on board, it would go further from making a small profit to making a tidy profit. This would then make it attractive to any airline coming in to take over from the incumbent.
Considering Stobart has done everything possible to make the route as unattractive as possible to potential customers, an average load of 32, I suggest, is not actually that bad. We have already heard from a number of people on this very forum that have bemoaned the lack of a daily flight. My personal experience was that I travelled to Cork with my hockey team for a pre season tour. Of the 11 of us who went, only 1 of us - me - used LBA. And even that was just on the inbound as there was no outbound flight. I have heard from someone else here who travelled there as part of a sports group but was, again, thwarted by the lack of options. What we are talking about here is two people on a forum - a very select group of consumers. Now imagine the many millions of people using LBA who don't post on this forum. It is potentially a huge number of people that are missing out. In my case, Stobart lost out on 11 return flights, with sports equipment and an eagerness for a few beers and, should the flight still be around this time next year in the same guise, will lose out on at least 22 return flights with sports equipment and an Irish drinking mentality when we return the favour.
So let's do the Maths.
Based on my one story and based on the fare from Cork to LBA of £48.91, sports equipment charge of £25 each way per person and a can of lager per person each way for £4, the lack of daily flights will mean that Stobart/Aer Lingus misses out on a potential £4,986 of revenue. Again, that is only my story. There are thousands of untold stories out there.
Undoubtedly, the conversion rate will change things somewhat but enough to completely change the face of aviation? I don't think so. The sort of people that are staying at home now are the sort of people who could barely afford to take their massive family on holiday in the first place. Package holidays may see changes but, if the tour companies get their product right, people will still buy it. Similarly, if Aer Lingus got the LBA-Cork schedule right, people would buy that too.