The Weather Thread
Discussions about weather...
Discussions about weather...
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The weather - General Thread
- Category General Topics
- Thread starter Aviador
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Aviador said:
Close, it was Hayling Island: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-24601190 though the strong winds did cause a bit of damage in the City: http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/1075655 ... off_flats/
[textarea]Real risk of a Maunder minimum 'Little Ice Age' says leading scientist
It’s known by climatologists as the ‘Little Ice Age’, a period in the 1600s when harsh winters across the UK and Europe were often severe.
The severe cold went hand in hand with an exceptionally inactive sun, and was called the Maunder solar minimum.
Now a leading scientist from Reading University has told me that the current rate of decline in solar activity is such that there’s a real risk of seeing a return of such conditions.
I’ve been to see Professor Mike Lockwood to take a look at the work he has been conducting into the possible link between solar activity and climate patterns.
According to Professor Lockwood the late 20th century was a period when the sun was unusually active and a so called ‘grand maximum’ occurred around 1985.
Since then the sun has been getting quieter.
By looking back at certain isotopes in ice cores, he has been able to determine how active the sun has been over thousands of years.
Following analysis of the data, Professor Lockwood believes solar activity is now falling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years.
He found 24 different occasions in the last 10,000 years when the sun was in exactly the same state as it is now - and the present decline is faster than any of those 24.
Based on his findings he’s raised the risk of a new Maunder minimum from less than 10% just a few years ago to 25-30%.
Read more: http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/p ... -scientist[/textarea]
Here's how historians write about when we last had a Maunder minimum which occurred back in the 1600's
Possibly a severe winter in Scotland, lasting from November to the end of April. Frequent heavy snowfall. [ If the winter was severe enough for comment in Scotland, then no doubt it was equally so across northern England & perhaps further south, but I have no data as to that. It is also interesting to speculate that given the anticyclonicity implied by the entry for late spring/all summer (above), and the requirement for at least some element of high pressure to the north or northeast of Britain for a notably cold winter, then this may be an exceptional spell of anticyclonically, blocked conditions for these longitudes.
http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1600_1649.htm
The 'Great Winter'**: apparently, trees died due to the severity (and length) of the frost; ships were stranded by ice several miles out into the North Sea - this latter a major concern as much commerce was done in these days via coastal shipping. In December, a "deep" frost until mid-month, then a thaw until just before Christmas, then from ~21st December(OSP) intense freeze for much of the time until at least mid-January. Ice formed on the Thames in London, sufficient to bear all sorts of sports, perambulations and even cooking! The frost lasted overall for some two months. (much of the foregoing from Ian Currie). The severe weather lasted in parts of England until about 20th February(OSP), though with variations in depth of cold. For example, in records from Kendal (Westmorland / Cumbria) 'hard frost' is noted from November 3rd, 1607 to March 6th, 1608(OSP).
The Firth of Forth is noted as being 'frozen' during January 1608 & the River Exe (south of Exeter) also experienced major ice formation by the latter-third of January - at this latter location, damage was caused to a local weir.
(** lots of winters will be found in the literature known as "The Great Winter": treat this title with some caution, however, in a series developed by C.Easton, in CHMW / Lamb, this ranks near the top of the most severe winters of the last 1000 yr.)
[ This may have been the first occasion of the use of the term 'Frost Fair'
http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1600_1649.htm
Further examples are available from the link provided. It's a harrowing thought if we do have a mini ice age. The fuel companies will have a bonanza!
It’s known by climatologists as the ‘Little Ice Age’, a period in the 1600s when harsh winters across the UK and Europe were often severe.
The severe cold went hand in hand with an exceptionally inactive sun, and was called the Maunder solar minimum.
Now a leading scientist from Reading University has told me that the current rate of decline in solar activity is such that there’s a real risk of seeing a return of such conditions.
I’ve been to see Professor Mike Lockwood to take a look at the work he has been conducting into the possible link between solar activity and climate patterns.
According to Professor Lockwood the late 20th century was a period when the sun was unusually active and a so called ‘grand maximum’ occurred around 1985.
Since then the sun has been getting quieter.
By looking back at certain isotopes in ice cores, he has been able to determine how active the sun has been over thousands of years.
Following analysis of the data, Professor Lockwood believes solar activity is now falling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years.
He found 24 different occasions in the last 10,000 years when the sun was in exactly the same state as it is now - and the present decline is faster than any of those 24.
Based on his findings he’s raised the risk of a new Maunder minimum from less than 10% just a few years ago to 25-30%.
Read more: http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/p ... -scientist[/textarea]
Here's how historians write about when we last had a Maunder minimum which occurred back in the 1600's
Possibly a severe winter in Scotland, lasting from November to the end of April. Frequent heavy snowfall. [ If the winter was severe enough for comment in Scotland, then no doubt it was equally so across northern England & perhaps further south, but I have no data as to that. It is also interesting to speculate that given the anticyclonicity implied by the entry for late spring/all summer (above), and the requirement for at least some element of high pressure to the north or northeast of Britain for a notably cold winter, then this may be an exceptional spell of anticyclonically, blocked conditions for these longitudes.
http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1600_1649.htm
The 'Great Winter'**: apparently, trees died due to the severity (and length) of the frost; ships were stranded by ice several miles out into the North Sea - this latter a major concern as much commerce was done in these days via coastal shipping. In December, a "deep" frost until mid-month, then a thaw until just before Christmas, then from ~21st December(OSP) intense freeze for much of the time until at least mid-January. Ice formed on the Thames in London, sufficient to bear all sorts of sports, perambulations and even cooking! The frost lasted overall for some two months. (much of the foregoing from Ian Currie). The severe weather lasted in parts of England until about 20th February(OSP), though with variations in depth of cold. For example, in records from Kendal (Westmorland / Cumbria) 'hard frost' is noted from November 3rd, 1607 to March 6th, 1608(OSP).
The Firth of Forth is noted as being 'frozen' during January 1608 & the River Exe (south of Exeter) also experienced major ice formation by the latter-third of January - at this latter location, damage was caused to a local weir.
(** lots of winters will be found in the literature known as "The Great Winter": treat this title with some caution, however, in a series developed by C.Easton, in CHMW / Lamb, this ranks near the top of the most severe winters of the last 1000 yr.)
[ This may have been the first occasion of the use of the term 'Frost Fair'
http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1600_1649.htm
Further examples are available from the link provided. It's a harrowing thought if we do have a mini ice age. The fuel companies will have a bonanza!
Hear hear :drinks:
It would be nice, only so I don't have to work 
SNOW???
"A significant change to much colder conditions is then likely to develop across many parts of the country as we progress throughout next week. This wintry blast will also bring the risk of some widespread and heavy snow showers, especially in some northern an eastern parts of the country. The snow will initially hit parts of Scotland, the north, and parts of the east from the middle part of next week, before spreading to other parts of the country later. Some significant snow is likely in these parts, especially across higher ground. However, some notable falls of snow may also develop in some parts as far south as the Midlands and parts of southern England later. This wintry blast has all the ingredients to become a potentially widespread snow event, and frequent wintry showers are also likely to develop across a large swathe of the country, even to lower levels. This will herald an appropriate feel to the start of the meteorological winter, in what is set to be a long hard winter with abundant snow amounts. In particular, in January, which could replicate December 2010 and see temperatures hovering at several degrees below the seasonal average for a prolonged period of time."
Read more: http://www.exactaweather.com/Snow_Forecast_Page.html
The Met Office strongly disputes what the Exactaweather forecasts but they have proved accurate on a number of occasions. :search:
Ladbrokes Odds 2013 White Christmas - UK
Belfast (Int Airport - 7/2
Birmingham (Airport) - 4/1
Cardiff (Airport) - 4/1
Edinburgh (Airport) - 7/2
Glasgow (Airport) - 7/2
Liverpool (Airport) - 5/1
London (Heathrow) - 7/2
Manchester (Airport) - 7/2
"A significant change to much colder conditions is then likely to develop across many parts of the country as we progress throughout next week. This wintry blast will also bring the risk of some widespread and heavy snow showers, especially in some northern an eastern parts of the country. The snow will initially hit parts of Scotland, the north, and parts of the east from the middle part of next week, before spreading to other parts of the country later. Some significant snow is likely in these parts, especially across higher ground. However, some notable falls of snow may also develop in some parts as far south as the Midlands and parts of southern England later. This wintry blast has all the ingredients to become a potentially widespread snow event, and frequent wintry showers are also likely to develop across a large swathe of the country, even to lower levels. This will herald an appropriate feel to the start of the meteorological winter, in what is set to be a long hard winter with abundant snow amounts. In particular, in January, which could replicate December 2010 and see temperatures hovering at several degrees below the seasonal average for a prolonged period of time."
Read more: http://www.exactaweather.com/Snow_Forecast_Page.html
The Met Office strongly disputes what the Exactaweather forecasts but they have proved accurate on a number of occasions. :search:
Ladbrokes Odds 2013 White Christmas - UK
Belfast (Int Airport - 7/2
Birmingham (Airport) - 4/1
Cardiff (Airport) - 4/1
Edinburgh (Airport) - 7/2
Glasgow (Airport) - 7/2
Liverpool (Airport) - 5/1
London (Heathrow) - 7/2
Manchester (Airport) - 7/2
The Met Office have now upgraded their yellow advisory warning to amber for severe winds and stormy conditions in some areas.
Regions affected by Amber warning:
Highlands & Eilean Siar, Northern Ireland, Strathclyde.
Yellow warnings for strong to gale force winds are still in place for the following regions:
Central, Tayside & Fife, Grampian, Highlands & Eilean Siar, London & South East England, North East England, North West England, Northern Ireland, Orkney & Shetland, SW Scotland, Lothian Borders, South West England, Strathclyde, Wales, Yorkshire & Humber.
Regions affected by Amber warning:
Highlands & Eilean Siar, Northern Ireland, Strathclyde.
Yellow warnings for strong to gale force winds are still in place for the following regions:
Central, Tayside & Fife, Grampian, Highlands & Eilean Siar, London & South East England, North East England, North West England, Northern Ireland, Orkney & Shetland, SW Scotland, Lothian Borders, South West England, Strathclyde, Wales, Yorkshire & Humber.
Torrential rain and gales (60 mph+) in Bristol area this evening and the wind is out of the south, creating a crosswind at BRS. Two aircraft (one easyJet A320 from Paphos and one bmi regional E 145 on Airbus Toulouse-BRS shuttle) diverted to CWL although other aircraft have landed before and after this.
Probably luck of the draw as to how strong the gusts are at a particular time.
Probably luck of the draw as to how strong the gusts are at a particular time.
That particular weather front is now crossing us and the wind is really picking up with gusts reaching 44 knots with heavy rain approaching from the south west. Not a great direction with a north westerly facing runway.
Edit: Just checked the wind direction and it's showing 160' which is unusual for high winds at LBA.
Edit: Just checked the wind direction and it's showing 160' which is unusual for high winds at LBA.
Aviador said:
It is very unusual for the wind to be 160'. Saying that though, the wind has been coming from roughly the south for the last couple of weeks now
Another spell of stormy weather is expected to affect many areas, winds increasing later on Boxing Day but likely to peak during Friday. Gusts of 70-80 mph are possible especially in exposed parts of the west and south. Spells of heavy rain can also be expected, including areas that remain saturated from rainfall earlier in the week.
The public should be aware of the potential for disruption, especially where the high winds are combined with heavy rainfall. Please watch for updates to this warning over the coming days, especially those who have travel plans.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... ionName=uk
The public should be aware of the potential for disruption, especially where the high winds are combined with heavy rainfall. Please watch for updates to this warning over the coming days, especially those who have travel plans.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... ionName=uk
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Well it looks like I'm off to Australia and New Zealand next year! Booked with BA from Manchester via Heathrow with a stop in Singapore and returning with Air New Zealand and BA via LAX to Heathrow. Will circumnavigate the globe and be my first trans-Pacific flight. First long haul flight with BA as well and of course Air NZ.
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