Route Development & Rumours

[User0001]

Re: Rumours about new destinations or airlines?

would say etihdad, only thing with them though is they operate from Abu Dhabi. But at least there would be onward connections too.

The problem with Etihad is that again, they are entrenched at MAN (and seem to be spending literally millions of pounds over at MAN with footie stadiums/teams, maintenence facilities, lounges, double daily flights and call centres).
Id say out of all the middle eastern carriers, with such a big presence over the hill, they would be the hardest ones to entice.

Add to that there are still some bigger airports they do not serve, like Birmingham, Edinburgh and Glasgow, the chances of getting these guys at Leeds is even less then Emirates.

 

[Jordan-34092]

Re: Rumours about new destinations or airlines?

The orders are being rumoured to be switched with the Boeing 737NG family...

They may wait for the 737MAX to come out though, or perhaps half Next Gen and half MAX, we don't know these things all we do know is the order will be, or is being, changed from the 787 to something else.

 

[tleeds]

Re: Rumours about new destinations or airlines?

What about Qatar? They seem to have a moderate base at MAN and with Emirates and Ethiad taking over MAN, LBA could be a good thing for Qatar...?

 

[User0001]

Other post seemed to have dissapeared, so will re-post.

What about Qatar? They seem to have a moderate base at MAN and with Emirates and Ethiad taking over MAN, LBA could be a good thing for Qatar...?

Not really. Qatar have only just increased MAN-DOH to 2 daily, making it one of the very few destinations in Europe to see a full 14 weekly A330 service.
They also have a valuable mail contract at Manchester which will always bolster their yields.
Add to that, the Qatari C-17s prefer Manchester as their Atlantic stop over point, seems to be some things holding Qatar airways in.

Id say that now all 3 middle eastern carriers have increased frequency this year, with the promise of more, they are quite happy over the hill.

 

[Aviador]

Emirates, Qatar or Etihad

I guess it will all depend on what each airline plans to do in the future.

If for instance Emirates, Qatar or Etihad decide they want to start operating from more regional airports as feeder services into their hub airports then LBA could become an option in the future.

In the meantime Manchester has worked hard to get the long haul routes it's got, many will be far from secure as many of the airlines still prefer to use London Heathrow as their main UK departure point. (frustrating but don't we all know it!)

In the long term with the London and continental hub airports still dominating the long haul market even Manchester airport will continue to find it hard to attract new long haul routes so it's hard to envisage airports such as LBA ever having a Middle East offering.

 

[tleeds]

Although saying that User001, I think that if Qatar found many positives operating from LBA rather than MAN, they wouldn't hesitate moving their main commercial operations...

The fact that Qatar has less operations that Emirates and Ethiad shows that they may be the most likely airline to move to LBA. They would be the only Middle-Eastern Operator from LBA, and I think that could attract them a lot....

 

[markietg]

There is a 4th airline which has had good growth over the past 2 years, Oman Air. Take a look at their route map. They serve Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi from Muscat already. 10 destinations in India plus Colombo and the Maldives. Bangkok and KL are the only 2 far eastern destinations served so far. No flights to Oz as yet but I think they are in the pipeline. They fly A330's to their 6 European destination and have a really good in-flight product(according to a mate who returned from KL with them on Wednesday).

 

[User0001]

Although saying that User001, I think that if Qatar found many positives operating from LBA rather than MAN, they wouldn't hesitate moving their main commercial operations...

The same could also be said for Qatar moving to any airport. However, MAN has more going for it than LBA in that:

-airport charges are the 3rd cheapest in Europe at MAN
-dedicated cargo terminal
-long runway to enable fully loaded aircraft
-mail contract at Manchester

They would be the only Middle-Eastern Operator from LBA, and I think that could attract them a lot..

But, even by moving to LBA, they would still be in competition with EK and EY out of Manchester. However, they wouldnt have the above facilities at LBA, and would have a harder time trying to reach the market in North wales, Liverpool and the Midlands. Manchester puts them in the middle of these markets, whereas LBA is just a bit too eastwards to be a 'comfortable' option.

Put it this way, if the format comes out ok, you should see the cities/catchments of LBA/MAN, and then see why MAN is better placed for long haul:

MAN has easier access to Liverpool, Manchester, Midlands, East Midlands, North Wales, Yorkshire and Scotland.
Leeds has access to Yorkshire, East Mids, Scotland, Tyneside and to some degree, Manchester.

So you see, Whilst Leeds will be good for serving the areas highlighted, thanks to road and rail, MAN has access to more people. Im not saying it totally inconcevable that pax from Liverpool, North Wales or the Midlands to use LBA, its obvious to see where the more comfortable option lies.
At the end of the day, catchments arnt just about the city its attached to, but, when you look at the bigger picture, where has more access to more areas.

 

[michael]

User001 said
"MAN has easier access to Liverpool, Manchester, Midlands, East Midlands, North Wales, Yorkshire and Scotland.
Leeds has access to Yorkshire, East Mids, Scotland, Tyneside and to some degree, Manchester."

Hang on, while some of the above may have some relevance how can MAN have good access to Yorkshire yet LBA only has access to Manchester "to some degree"??

From a Yorkshireman through and through :crazy:

I would think what someone needs to do for LBA route development is to come up with a list of airports not served from MAN, NCL, LPL, and HUY, both European and further afield. No prizes for the longest (!) list though leasantry:

 

[User0001]

"MAN has easier access to Liverpool, Manchester, Midlands, East Midlands, North Wales, Yorkshire and Scotland.
Leeds has access to Yorkshire, East Mids, Scotland, Tyneside and to some degree, Manchester."

Hang on, while some of the above may have some relevance how can MAN have good access to Yorkshire yet LBA only has access to Manchester "to some degree"??

Its a good, genuine question and glad you asked.
The reason for me saying this is that, the M62 links Leeds with Manchester, and also 2 railway line spurs that basically head in the same general direction, thus meaning in 'efficient' transport networks, its mainly those mentioned that are easier to use
For the residents of Stockport, Alderly Edgde and wilmslow, there is generally the one chain of roads to get them to LBA efficiently, taking you around the busier parts of Manchester.

For the other way however, Manchester-Yorkshire in general is easier in the fact you no longer just have the M62 direction, but, the woodhead/snake pass to South Yorkshire and the extra railway line that heads the same direction.

Then, in terms of catchment of flights, the general appeal is lost as around 90% of LBA's flights, including the same operators can be found at Manchester with similar or better frequency. So basically, unless the price was dirt cheap and low enough to cover the petrol bill/rail bill/parking/hotel (delete as appropriate), it leads to the people of Manchester to choose MAN, so therefore, the impact of LBA in the 'Manchester' catchment lessens.

 

[User0001]

In the long term with the London and continental hub airports still dominating the long haul market even Manchester airport will continue to find it hard to attract new long haul routes so it's hard to envisage airports such as LBA ever having a Middle East offering.

This is certainly true for long haul where the route is reliant on the OD market only. Nearly 75% of passengers on scheduled long-haul routes from regional airports are on routes where there is a connecting hub at the overseas end - i.e. Dubai, Newark etc. Of the other 25%, it's a mixture of the quasi-charter stuff such as the Virgin services to the US and the services into Pakistan. In June, the number of passengers on Heathrow - New York services alone was almost the same as the total on all scheduled long-haul routes from regional airports, which shows the gulf that exists.

For the traffic into connecting hubs though, regional airports have grown passenger numbers over the last decade and obviously the Middle East has been the real success story. The middle eastern carriers are relatively cheap, the transfer process is very efficient, the on-board service is good and the hubs are prefectly placed between the developed economies of western europe and the emerging economies of India, China and Asia Pacific. Throw in the fact that there are some strong passenger flows as well from the UK regions to Pakistan, India and Bangladesh, and it's a recipe for success. The truth is, anywhere with a moderately sized population base can probably generate the traffic flows to support a daily EK service; the service from NCL being a good example.

And of course, the more onward connections that become available out of the Middle East hubs then more traffic will be attracted into these hubs from the feeder end. If the forecasts coming out of the UAE are to be believed, then Dubai alone will go from 47m passengers to 98m in the next 10 years - that's the equivalent of another 300 daily A330 services. If such a scenario does come to pass, or anywhere remotely close, it is highly likely there will be more capacity offered from the UK. This is likely to be more capacity from existing airports but as the overall UK market grows, then services from new departure points to compliment these are a reasonable bet.

What this means for LBA is anyone's guess and predicting new routes for next summer is difficult enough let alone getting the crystal ball out for 2015 - 2020. I know the view from the airport is that even at current traffic volumes, the passenger throughput from the LBA catchment on MAN - Middle East is enough to comfortably sustain a daily service , being around 15% of the traffic. But of course it doesn't work like that because it's spread across different carriers and there are multiple frequency options too. So no one expects any of the carriers to ditch services at MAN and switch them to LBA. However, if the UK - Middle East market continues to grow, then the market will start to reach a point where a complimentary service starts to become a viable option, subject of course to the usual caveats about performance etc.

I think the main things to bear in mind are to think about these services not as the market is today, but as it may look in the future if the stellar growth continues. It's also important too not to put these Middle Eastern services on a pedestal and think of them as something unatainable or elitist just because they carry the badge 'long haul'. They are doing what routes into LHR, AMS, BRU have been doing for years.

 

[whoshotjimmi]

Michael - Manchester only has reasonable access to LBA due to the poor accessability of the airport itself. The reason it works one way and not the other is that MAN sits at the end of a motorway, rail and (soon) tram link, which makes it fabulously easy to get to from most places. LBA does not have any of these facilities so attracting pax from the Manchester area, especially considering the wealth of services afforded by MAN, is very difficult.

I would just like to add my opinion on the Middle East services. With regards to all the airlines and departure points mentioned, Emirates is THE airline to choose from and will be for the forseeable future. It is NOT in the interests of LBA to try to attract Qatar, Gulf Air, Ethiad etc. Aside from the fact that they are still only beginning expansion into major cities and airports, these airlines do not sustain a profit (Ethiad have NEVER made a profit) - which is KEY when operating more marginal routes - nor do they have the worldwide appeal or availablity of onward connections or fleet availablilty as Emirates. Added to that is the fact that Dubai is emerging as a real destination in its own right whereas Qatar, Bahrain and Abu Dhabi are not.

I have said a million times before that, when trying to expand a smaller airport, you have to remain sensible and try not to allow dreamland to take over. In this case, EK/Dubai is the ONLY sensible option for LBA and, I firmly believe, will remain so for many, many years.

 

[Jordan-34092]

Dubai and New York. Both are the main routes that will be more than likely to hit off from LBA than any others.

 

[User0001]

In the press release at CWL, Vueling have stated that there is a 'strong chance of more UK routes'.

Given how quiet and 'random' CWL is for Vueling, I wonder if Leeds could have a shot?

I know Manchester is on the radar to be launched (due to IAG group), but, as SOU is also in the running, it shows the 'smaller' airports seem to appeal to them.

Could be one to watch....

 

[whoshotjimmi]

Cardiff is not particularly random. Given that BMIBaby are pulling out of Cardiff tomorrow, I would have thought that a reasonable size hole in the market now exists, which Vueling have, thus far, been among the first to exploit.

Vueling have bases at a couple of potentials - Madrid and Valencia. Madrid more so. I think Vueling will be Manchester bound before they are Leeds bound however.

 

[User0001]

Vueling have bases at a couple of potentials - Madrid and Valencia. Madrid more so. I think Vueling will be Manchester bound before they are Leeds bound however.

I agree, could be good for LBA-MAD/BCN, but, like you say, with the IAG showing Manchester a heap of love at the moment, along with MAN's aggressive pursuit of loco carriers at the moment, I expect them to go there first.

 

[Aviador]

The airline seems happy to try out the smaller airports. They've just announce flights to Cardiff and I think they gave Norwich a bash either last year or the year before. I don't know if they're still operating into there though.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

My thoughts were the likes of Norwich or Durham Tees Valley which, like Cardiff, have no low-cost presence worth speaking of. A Vueling Barcelona-Southampton route is being discussed on the DP with rumours that it is bring considered. Maybe pure conjecture of course because the CWL initiative came out of the blue with no rumours at all prior to it coming to light in the Vueling booking engine.

I've done a couple of dummy bookings using Vueling's web booking engine. It's very straightforward and most of the charges are up front. You can select a specific seat for, I think 3 euros, or a seat with more leg room for a slightly higher charge.

If you want to be on your own it's possible to buy a seat with a guarantee that the seat next to you will be empty, though I seem to remember the charge for this is around 70 euros per leg.

They have other fare innovations too.

 

[airforced]

If we believe the hype from the PR boys and girls the Welcome to Yorkshire initiative has been very successful with a much larger number of tourists being encouraged to visit our wonderful county. Therefore might it make sense for a Vueling, Air Europa, Wizz or Air Berlin to introduce a small number of flights here for the benefit of their local population rather than someone starting new flights for primarily our benefit?

Just a thought.

 

[tleeds]

Airforced the problem we have is attracting these airlines to the county. We have Wizz Air at DSA but many airlines are happy serving into MAN and letting tourists travel by coach/bus/train into the city of Leeds.

I think that if we were able to attract these airlines, it could be small fortune they would be making. Ryanair is LBA's best bet at bringing in tourists into LBA I think.