Route Development & Rumours

[White Heather]

The Warsaw route from LBA, which was operated a few years ago by a Centralwings 737 (400 I think) was doing quite well, despite rediculous operating times (arriving late at night and departing around midnight I recall), but was axed due to aircraft availability issues. Later that airline, which was linked to the Polish National airline, LOT, went out of business. However, that operation proved that there is demand for Warsaw from LBA. I am not sure about Katowice as it is very close to Krakow I believe, which Ryanair already serve.

 

[Aviador]

Remember it very will. I think it departed around 00:30 or something. The flight always seemed busy but tickets must have been sold ridiculously cheap at this end for people to use it.

 

[ryan]

I think Wizz Air are happy in Doncaster... being a low-cost airline (more so than Ryanair in my opinion), they would have been out there like a shot if they weren't. Indeed, they've added a few extra flights this winter when compared to last year. The Warsaw flights at Doncaster are probably at the most attractive times when looking at the entire Wizz operation - 7am!

 

[whoshotjimmi]

In response to your post, White Heather, Krakow and Katowice airports are roughly 50 miles apart which is the same as Leeds and Donny, give or take a few miles. The two airports handled 5 million passengers in 2010 compared to 3.5 million at Leeds and Donny. The region is roughly the same in terms of population as the Yorkshire region.

WizzAir operate out of Katowice whilst the British carriers operate mainly to Krakow (Ryanair do have a small operation into Katowice). The good numbers at Katowice show, I believe, how important having a "home" airline (I am aware WizzAir is not Polish before everyone tells me) to the local people and why it is important to try and lure Wizz to LBA. I believe that they would take more passengers on LBA-Gdansk than Ryanair, for example, purely as Wizz are the Polish based airline. Much in the same way that, on the London - Moscow route, Brits use British Airways whilst Russians use Aeroflot - it's just the natural order of things. There is also the advantage that Wizz would not have to base a/c at LBA and would operate more outside the peak times because of that. My one concern is that Wizz still do not make a profit and there is only so long that can carry on.

The Warsaw route from Donny has lower numbers than Katowice, Gdansk and Poznan so, on that basis, if demand to Warsaw from LBA was good, there must be good demand to the other destinations also. There is no doubt that Donny have played a blinder with Wizz - as long as they don't hit financial meltdown.

 

[White Heather]

I agree, that it would be great to get Wizz to LBA, even if it were just to operate to Warsaw initially, but as Ryan posted, they seem comfortable at DSA, and they are clearly also comfortable with Peel Airports. I think our best hope of seeing them would be if there is clear evidence that there is more demand for a route from LBA than from DSA. The problem I think is, that they are picking up their passengers from the entire east of country and the west, through DSA and LPL, so they may be thinking why bother moving - if passengers don't want to go down to DSA they will go across to LPL. Is there a real incentive for them to move to LBA at all, even for one route? Such an incentive would have to be provided by our Directors - step forward Tony Hallwood and John Parkin!

 

[wawkrk]

I drive frequently between Krakow and Katowice and sometimes it takes well over an hour.
The running of Centralwings was completely shambolic.Not surprising when LOT is just the same. Communistic style operation where top posts are filled through nepotism and ex military personel. Wizzair could not accept the high costs at Balice where the management are just not on this planet so they call Katowice Krakow and run a double deck shuttle bus. I think Ryanair must have somehow managed to get an extraordinary deal.
Just to give an idea about organisation at Balice. This week the airport is advertising for a waitress for its VIP restaurant.
Qualifications required: Masters degree in politics or economics and must be fluent in at least 2 additional languages.
Although Katowice is not so attractive, the running of the airport is a breath of fresh air by comparison to Balice.

 

[rmac]

I see Flybe are suspending Man and BHX flights to FRA...... any chance of these slots being used for a LBA-FRA service?

 

[Seasider]

They would probably make more money selling the slots.

 

[oldendays]

My latest wish list for LBA routes, some of which may make little or no sense commercially:

- London Heathrow, British Airways or Aer Lingus

- London Gatwick, easyJet or British Airways

- Paris CDG, Air France or FlyBe/Air France code share

- Frankfurt, British Midland/Lufthansa codeshare or FlyBe

- Stockholm, SAS or FlyBe

- Oslo, Norwegian Air Shuttle or Ryanair

- Copenhagen, SAS or FlyBe

- Turin, Grenoble, Lyon, Munich, Innsbruck, all easyJet for the winter

- Madrid, Iberia/ Air Nostrum

- Lisbon, Portugalia

- Larnaca and Paphos, A year-round service from easyJet

And nowt for Jet2 until they get a grip on their fleet unreliability !

So there :hatsoff:

 

[lbia]

I think the Frankfurt and Copenhagen ideas are the most realistic. Commercially London will never succeed out of LBA so I think we should all give up on that one. Paris with flybe is also a no go area, with Jet2 and Ryanair jumping on the Paris route from Manchester, flybe's CDG route will be under immense pressure, they won't further dilute the market which is suddenly very well served from northern England.

Paphos is a year round route now for Jet2 bar the low season in Cyprus in feb & early march. Good to see a good attitude towards the only airline to give a toss about LBA..

 

[White Heather]

I agree lbia that there is a lot of negativity about Jet2 at the moment, which is a pity, as you are right, it is probably the only airline to really have a serious commitment to LBA in the longer term. However, I can see why that negativity is arising at the moment. The airline does seem to be having more tech issues than they have in the past and also seem to have more problems finding alternative aircraft than previously. I think there is an underlying feeling that the airline has expanded more quickly than its fleet can cope with, whilst there is also disappointment that the main thrust at the moment is over the hill at MAN - particularly with them getting the 737-800's whilst LBA, the airlines original and home base, continues to soldier on with the same batch of 737's we had back in 2003/4.

I think the reduction in new routes from LBA is probably understandable given the economic climate and impact on airlines, not to mention the standing room only terminal until the refurbishment this winter, but I think folk on here have long held the view that Jet2 are the one airline we could expect ongoing expansion from and yet over recent years that expansion has obviously slowed down and at the same time we have seen the loss of routes to Madrid, Valencia, Hamburg, Newquay, Las Palmas (although its back again now), Sharm El Sheikh and Enfidha, whilst the likes of Paris has dropped to once daily - which is pretty hopeless for the business passengers. It is easy to get a little despondent when we see constant expansion at MAN and now EMA and GLA.

Again, I think we all need a little reality check though. There are only so many routes that Jet2 would be interested in, and most of them are already operated from LBA. We still have the best part of 40 routes and there is no doubt that Jet2 put LBA on the map and we all have a great deal to thank them for - especially those who have jobs at LBA as a result of their base there. Perhaps we should cut them a little slack for this year and wait and see what happens in 2012 when the terminal is sorted and hopefully one or two of the 800's will be at LBA. That will be good news, although NOT if they replace the 757's as that will represent a cut in capacity which is certainly not what we want to see.

I would dispute though that LHR cannot work from LBA. I don't think you would find that either the local business communities or the LBA directors agree with that, and I know that they have a business case that says it will work provided the route is only operated a couple of times a day to link to long haul routes and on the right aircraft. The problem is that there is only really one airline that can make it work, and since 1980 they have not shown much interest in operating from LBA!

 

[tleeds]

Very good post there White Heather, however I do think that they could utilise the current fleet at LBA a lot better than what they are doing so currently.

Slightly off-topic:
I am a firm believer of Jet2 and fly to Malaga with them 2 maybe 3 times a year for family holiday's always on the B757 that they have based at LBA, however I can't help feeling that they are a lot more pressed with the 'frequency' of flights rather than the 'variety' of flights that they offer, don't you think?

For example they use the B757 on the AGP at 8am, which is an error in itself, on what; M, Tu, Th, F, S, S. The fact that they utilise the 'larger' aircraft to operate on a Monday and Tuesday, keeps 'nagging' me to express that this could be used to better effectiveness.
My parents flew to AGP on a Monday this current July and came back on a Sunday for a short break. They said that the aircraft was probably just over 60% full going out and coming back was full to the brim with 100% capacity used. It's an inaccurate guess, probably for the outbound flight I know, but doesn't anyone else feel that a full B737 would be better? Families flying in August say, are flexible on what-ever day that they fly so August, one month might have to suffer but a better-timed route such as Corfu may work better being used in this 8am slot.

That brings me onto this next issue. easyJet from Liverpool have re-timed their AGP flight this summer from 0650am to 0600am! This means that with their shorter turn-around as well, their aircraft returns to LPL by midday! Just think what routes are available from this time.

I'm sure LBA residents would have something to say about the early departures, but if it means Jet2 get a better use out of their aircraft then I think it's worth it. I'm aware that slot allocation is an issue as well but there has to be availability for Jet2 to fly within the 6am/7am margins.

I know this is a much 'lob-sided' view of things but I really do feel that Jet2 could utilise their aircraft and route network to a 'improved standard' to what it is now.

 

[lbaspotter]

Got a bit bored tonight.

So I had a really long thought about what would and would'nt work route wise out of LBA. So if I was the boss or on Marketing teams under Bridgepoint these would be the destinations that I think that LBA should be looking to add new routes to or adding extra capacity once the conditions are right.

I've Also listed routes that are most likley not going to happen anytime soon as well.

United Kingdom
Newquay = A route for the taking by either Jet2 or flybe surely?
Plymouth = This route will never return as it looks as though the airport will be closed in December
London Heathrow = There is really only 2 possible airlines. British Airways or a reinstatement by bmi but its most likely LBA wont be seeing this route ever again.
London Gatwick = Would be an ideal route for either British Airways or Easyjet. The route has also been tried and tested recently by flybe so hopefully they could pull it off. I would rather have Gatwick rather than Southend, Luton or Stansted.
London Southend = I wonder if Easyjet would be interested. There again there is also Aer Arann now as well.
London City = Best suite British Airways Cityflyer. But I wonder if CityJet Air France might be interested. There again they is also even Eastern Airways to consider.
Inverness = Could be re-instated by Eastern Airways or maybe Flybe using Loganair aircraft but dont think it will return to the LBA route network.
Republic of Ireland
Galway = Can’t see this route retuning anytime soon
Cork = Maybe re-instated by Aer Arann but under Aer Lingus code-share. Also an opening for ryanair if they drop the Knock route
Knock = Hopefully Ryanair will continue to operate next summer. But flybe seem interested in Knock recently.
Shannon = If not Ryanair. Then it I’ll never be replaced.
France
Carcassonne = If not Ryanair. Then it I’ll never bee replaced.
Lille = It was tried by bmi but I don’t think that there are many links from Lille to UK Airports
Avignon = Maybe a god route for somebody like flybe with the option of a Air France codeshare
Grenoble = this looks possible under Easyjet
Paris Cdg = surely enough room for the likes of a Flybe/Air France codeshare 2x daily service using Dash 8 or Embrear 175?
Marseilles = this would be an ideal low cost route for the likes of Easyjet or Jet2. Do ryanair go down there?
Austria
Innsbruck = surely this one is for the taking by Easyjet, ryanair or Jet2. There again also flybe using an Embrear 175.
Germany
Hamburg = Maybe another route into German market for ryanair
Frankfurt = Good route for bmi regional under a Lufthansa code-share or ryanair into nearby Frankfurt Hann
Berlin = Good route for the likes of Air Berlin or Easyjet as it has been tried and tested at Manchester in the past
Paderborn = Good route to be picked by Air Berlin due to amount of Troops in this area. With more troops coming to Yorkshire soon and there dropping Manchester.
Denmark
Copenhagen = Maybe re-instated by bmi regional but under SAS code-share or even better flybe/finncom.
Norway
Oslo = surely this could be targeted to the likes of Norwegian or Ryanair to one off the nearby used airports.
Bergen = could see Eastern Airways doing good using Saab 2000 or Flybe on a Dash 8
Poland
Warsaw = would be good route for Jet2 to get a bit of the Eastern European market share from LBA before Ryanair dose.
Italy
Naples = I wonder if anyone will look at the success off this years charters and offer more next summer on this route.
Verona = Use to be served on a charter basis. Could be a good try for say Omega Holidays as they did with Naples this summer.
Spain
Gerona= If not ryanair, who? Do the charter airlines still go down this way now a day?
Reus = would is a good low cost route for either ryanair as they have a base there or Jet2 with a tour operator.
Madrid = Iberia or Air Europa would be best for Connections. But I would also settle for either Easyjet or Ryanair.
Valencia = Ideal for a ryanair or Easyjet low cost operation. Has been tried and tested by Jet2 as well in the past
Almeria = Would be a good low cost route for Ryanair or even Easyjet as it’s been tried and tested before by jet2
Bulgaria
Varna = Hopefully another Tour Operator could be picked for this route
Croatia
Split = A route to be taken by the tour operators. Use to do well from LBA years ago. And nearby Dubrovnik already served by Jet2.
Tunisia
Monastir/Endfidha = Most likely will be reinstated by both Jet2 and Thomas Cook next year
Turkey
Dalaman = surely enough room for another operator on this route. Pegasus, Sun Express and Easyjet come to mind
Izmir = Not currently served. Another for the Tour Operators as its been served before
Egypt
Sharm el Sheikh = Most likely be reinstated by Jet2. I think a tour operator would be good as well on this route
Gambia
Banjul = I wonder if this route will ever make a come back?
Pakistan
Lahore = would be good adaptation for PIA to add if they went back to a 3 weekly A310 route. Won’t happen if a 777 turns up.
United Arab Emirates
Dubai = Don't think Emirates Airlines would be intrested in LBA. Seen that there so big over the hill at Manchester with 3x daily flights and also daily out of Newcastle.
Canada
Toronto = would love to see Canada Affair using Air Transat A310. But Jet2 is an option using B757 as well hopefully.
United States of America
Orlando = this would be a good route for Jet2 if they ever get B767. But I would rather have Thomas Cook or Thomson’s
New York = Just don't see this happening anytime soon on a full scheduled basis.
Carribbean
Bridgetown-Barbados = Maybe get reinstated by P&O if the ADP was dropped or it was reduced in costs.
Mexico
Acapulco = Maybe get reinstated by P&O if the ADP was dropped or it was reduced in costs.


What dose everyone else think?

 

[tleeds]

A very interesting list, and all I more-or-less agree with!

Ryanair do operate into Marseille, but current routes into the UK with FR go to; London Stansted and Edinburgh, so would be nice to have the three routes; Scotland, Northern England and Southern England! They don't have a base at Marseille, so would have to be operated on a 'W' leg from another base or on a LBA based aircraft.

Giron-Costa Brava is not served by anyone excessively, just Ryanair. Thomson do operate three routes into here; Manchester, Birmingham and London Gatwick. Nearly all routes with; Thomson, Thomas Cook were moved to Reus airport, of which Ryanair do have a substantial base and Jet2 operate this route as well from MAN. Unfortunately for Reus though, every single route operating from the airport is Seasonal.

On the Newquay topic, it would be very interesting to see whether this will be re-instated into the LBA network. Flybe have already taken over the previous BmiBaby MAN-Newquay route, and Jet2 did once serve it from LBA so would be very interesting to see whether they take it on again after Air-SouthWest and Eastern stopped it.

Whatever happened to Aer Arann? I always thought that they were a 'happy' airline at LBA! Does anyone know the reasoning behind why they left LBA? My grandparents used them once to travel to Ireland and said they were very pleased, so would be good to see them back...

I do hope that LBA pull off another London route. BA and BMI, as it hurts me to say it, aren't interested and are now after the 'bigger' routes! easyJet to London Gatwick, in my opinion would work a lot better than what FlyBe did, and of course I think a lot of people will use easyJet for a few of their connections from London Gatwick.

 

[a300boy]

lbaspotter
An excellent article and pretty accurate I suspect !
What the hell are you thinking about at 2330 in the evening ? you need to get out to the airport more.
I would love Easyjet to do Lba-Lgw but I fear that to make it work summer and winter the aircraft would need to be Cat 3 capable at any weight and Lba based as a preference as our winters of wind, fog and snow would make it difficult otherwise. Just cast your mind back to last winter when Flybe had so many problems at both ends due weather.

 

[ravmanlba]

Interesting Posts, i'll throw my hat into the ring with my ideal yet (semi) realistic plan for LBA route development in next 2-5 years.

Bmi - to be fully absorbed into the Lufthansa group and be called something like Lufthansa UK (simillar as what happened with Lufthansa Italia). Once new runway at Frankfurt opens, daily flights using regional aircraft timed for conenctions to *A connections. BRU, EDI and GLA dropped.

Air Annan - Bought by Air Lingus and flights to ORK and DUB, again timed for conenctions, especially at DUB with and aggresive marketing camapaign for flights to the US (with customs pre-clearance)

Air Southwest - limited change, if anything, flights/rotations dropped.

FlyBe - Slow but steady growth at LBA - taken over the dropped Bmi routes to BRU, EDI and GLA with the addition of Paris (codeshare and conenctions with AF) but most interesting is the potential for 'FlyBe Nordic' with Finnair/Finncomm- some possible un-served routes availabe there (Helsinki, Oslo, Stockholm, Copenhagen, Tampere, Bergen etc...). Maybe even a tie-in with Oneworld codeshares, what with the historical links with BA and future ones with Finnair. And as a regular user of HEL (quality IATA name!) i can say the connections to Asia are quick and easy. Anyway, i digress.....

Jet2 - Once terminal work goes ahead (fingers crossed) i expect to see growth but probably not what we were hoping for in terms of capacity. No longer the Norths 'low cost' carrier, expanding at other bases but with some skillfully acuired older 762/3 airframes, some new routes. 1 x 762 based at LBA to operate Orlando and soe Carribean routes while 763's to be based at MAN doing longer routes. Off season, 767's to operate high density spanish routes or even leased out.

KLM - Same old, same old. Maybe an upgrade to mainline but doubtfull.

Manx2 - Same.

Ryanair - ???? Depends on what mood MOL is in. Could not try to predict!

PIA - A310's enjoy an indian summer, for a while. 3 x weekly with 3rd flight to Dubai (which PIA have a mini-hub, with almost 8 flights). Once the A310's give up the ghost, 772 to come in in a reduced frequency. PIA to serve the route long-term, the HUGE Pakistani/south asian population in West Yorkshire and Bradford suggests this is a goer for them (again, hopefully)

Thomas Cook - upped based aircraft to 3 in summer. 2 x weekly Toronto service with Canadian Affair, A330.

Thomson - Skeleton flights in season.

Vueling - new operator to Madrid and Valencia. Seem to be expanding at the moment, who saw the base at Toulouse coming?

I too, get bored and think about the ifs and buts, pie-sky thinking, but fun. I have, of course, grand ideas for LBA which included various unrealistic dreams about but the above is my semi-realstic hopes using my limited airline industry knowledge.

Hope to hear what you all think.....don't be too harsh

Ravmanlba

 

[pilot_737]

Fairly realistic aims I'd say ravmanlba, I hope the LBA board are thinking along the same lines!

Not sure a 762 would make it to Florida or the Carribean though! (unless they could find some 762ERs about!)

 

[LeedsPilot]

Fairly realistic aims I'd say ravmanlba, I hope the LBA board are thinking along the same lines!

Not sure a 762 would make it to Florida or the Carribean though! (unless they could find some 762ERs about!)

If they could find some B767-200ER's this would be the ideal aircraft for Orlando/US and Carribean as even at MTOW it's takeoff length is only 5600ft, and it can fly up to 7000nm! I definitely think LBA has the capacity for 2X Weekly B762 to Orlando in the Summer. B767's are very unlikely though with Jet2's current business plan.

 

[XEROX]

With the increasing likelihood of a double dip recession, I think most airlines will try and consolidate, or even scale back ops. I don’t think we will see major router development next year – I hope im wrong…

 

[a300boy]

MAS737
I dont know if you are in the industry, but if not I would like to point out that the take off distance required has lot of corrections to be made to it. airfield altitude, temperature and obstacles have to be factored, so the numbers out of the book are only the starting point for your take off calculations and due to Lbia being 680 ft Amsl and having the chevin as an obstacle on ruway 32 our performance charts for an A300 show significant take off weight reductions. Then of course we have to deduct for high teperatures as well. Runway 14 would be much better as no obstructions to worry about however airfield altitude and temperature still have to be factored.
All take off calculations assume an engine failure after V1 (decision speed)
Apologies if you have knowledge of the subject but it would seem to me a B767 going transatlantic would be restricted unless runway 14 was in use.