Route Development & Rumours

[Sherburnflyer92]

I'm either wrong or stupid.
But i believe the RHO, LCA, PFO flights on a wenesday all left within 50 minutes off each other on a wenesday? THis mean they had 4 757 at LBA last year, or did all spain etc flights turn to 737 ops for that day?

 

[tleeds]

As far as I am aware, the RHO route does not commence until 23rd May as does the LCA route. Only one 757 was used yesterday on the PFO route and all other flights were used by a 737 anyway, but I could be wrong. Please correct me if I'm wrong..

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

Sorry i didn't make it clear. Last summer season.

 

[tleeds]

ooh sorry Nicholas1992.
Your right saying that RHO, LCA and PFO were all operated by 757's and within the space of 50mins, but we didn't have 4 based 757's. Like you also said, all the other routes that day were operated by 733's.

 

[stewief1]

Link on LBA website today regarding Tony Hallwood at the routes conference. Some interesting points and plans that he makes
http://www.routesonline.com/routes-tv/3 ... rope-2011/

 

[White Heather]

Thanks for that post stewief1 - a very interesting interview, and lets just hope that he does his stuff and we get some of the routes he is obviously looking for.

 

[LeedsPilot]

Interesting interview, but no mention of any U.S. routes. I definitely think there would be demand for a weekly charter service using a B763/A330-200 to Orlando/Florida and as the airport have previousely mentioned they are seeking a daily B757 service to New York. I believe these are the next, most realistic, possibilities as regard to long haul flights.

I think what is said about Scandinavia and Germany is very true (I can't believe we have a Dusseldorf service but not a Frankfurt one).

 

[tleeds]

I think that the U.S isn't the main priority for them at the moment. The airport has traditionally attracted many people on short/medium-haul package deals as well as those who just choose flights only. In turn, I think the airport are wanting to attract the 'safer' options first, he mentions more Mediterranean routes in the interview that the airport want to attract.

Scandinavia and Germany are the currently 'untapped' market and because it will be a new venture for them, this may come second, in their priority listings, and is a lot more suited for business over lesuire travellers.

New York and Florida will the final instalment, personally. Yes it would be fantastic to secure such routes, but the reality is that because, again, no-one has ever tried them and as we all believe they will work, the airport are just being safe really...

I don't know wether this has been mentioned but what about a British Lo-co operating routes to Germany. It's just a thought but, Scandanavia would most likely be Scandanavian Airlines, but why not LS on a few more routes and possibly GermanWings on some of the routes as well?

 

[Aviador]

Hi tomleeds

I agree with you on the U.S flights. Leeds Bradford airport, like most regional airports, needs to make money and with regional airports this can only realistically be done through increasing passenger volumes. It's looking increasingly likely that the much awaited and needed terminal internal works are going to start this winter. Once Bridgepoint has finally passed the plans the airport management will instantly have extra capacity to offer airlines as soon as next summer. With this in mind, airlines such as Ryanair and Jet2 will be more willing to offer additional flights knowing that their flights will depart without any unnecessary delays caused by a restrictive terminal. Reading between the lines, things look optimistic and I will be surprised if we don't see either a new airline or a good number of new routes for next summer.

 

[lbaspotter]

I agree also that US/Trans Atlantic routes won’t be happening for a while. Well not while the economic situation is like it is at the moment along with the sky high price of fuel. Even though we are not in a recession anymore, I’d like to point that is according to the Government and the Bank of England.

I do get a feeling though that once the terminal works start to commence hopefully this will help with the airport attracting both new and existing airlines and operators to LBA to introduce new route.

Like avaidor says i think LBA will see some new routes announced this winter for next summer as the Yorkshire region is crying out for better links to Scandinavia, Germany and the rest of Europe, including more to the Med.

 

[Bigman]

Can't we have something more close to home to star with such as Guernsey or Inverness. I would like to see Ryanair do Prestwick personally.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

A US flight would be good as it would not directly compete with any other services ex LBA, but apart from a flight to a holiday destination in Florida, it would not really add much.

The problem I always find is if KLM dont have a reasonable fare, I have to go to MAN. What we really need is another major airline, what used to be called a 'flag carrier' such as LH/Swiss/Brussels Airlines or even, ideally BA!

 

[tleeds]

Xboy999 I never thought of Norwegian Airlines as a possible candidate. Scandanavian do operate into MAN so maybe I was wrong to immediatley think of them and on such a specialist route that has a small, but growing market, diluting their passenegers from MAN would be a problem (..not wanting to get into a PIA debate here..)

I recall Norwegian also having quite a large order of Boeing 738's as well so a shortage of aircraft isn't a problem. In addition to what you said with LBA being in the middle of their current London Gatwick and Edinburgh destinations, it seems like logic for the LBA team to try and hoist them onto the LBA boat.

 

[lbaspotter]

Talking about Norwegian Airlines have'nt they tried operating out of East Midlands not so long ago and failed out off there on several Scandanavian routes. Even tough it would be really nice to see them here at LBA with maybe the likes of Germanwings..

I think the best bet would be for ryanair to maybe have a crack at route to Oslo as they already operate routes to Oslo from most of there other UK airport bases.

I myself would like to see bmi regional back onto the LBA - Copenhagen service as its a tried and tested route by them not so long ago. They have the right sized aircraft in the Embrear 135 to restart the service with. They could again offer a codeshare with SAS without effecting there own MAN ops. I guess it would all depend on Lufthansa though..

 

[brtitania020]

Air Berlin the Low cost Airline could be good for German services from LBA any thoughts on this..

 

[jason1-11]

Talking about Norwegian Airlines haven't they tried operating out of East Midlands not so long ago and failed out off there on several Scandanavian routes. Even tough it would be really nice to see them here at LBA with maybe the likes of Germanwings..

The route was operated by Stirling, not Norwegian.

 

[whoshotjimmi]

Thought I would offer an opinion on development in Germany and Scandinavia.

I do not believe Germanwings would be interested in an LBA operation based on their current and previous operations into the UK. They have very much gone for the nailed on routes in Britain (STN, EDI, MAN) and have already dropped Birmingham and Gatwick. Their fleet size is comparitively small so risk is more of a factor and their operating bases are, in the whole, not what LBA would be looking for imo (Berlin being the exception). I can't see connections to the Germanwings bases at Stuttgart, Dortmund or Cologne/Bonn as I do not think the demand is there, although the latter would be the most likely.

Air Berlin only have a small presence in the UK, again on the nailed on routes to London and Manchester. Their base at Munich is the most interesting from my point of view but I do not think anything larger than a Q400 would be necessary. Unfortunately, the Q400's in the fleet are operated in conjunction with their wholly owned partner airline LGW and are used mainly to connect into the Air Berlin Hubs making an LBA operation impracticle. The higher price of Air Berlin is also a stumbling block I think. A higher cost operation from LBA is more suited to Business and connections IMO and, with Air Berlin and Oneworld, that would not fill a Q400. The alliance of choice in Germany is Star Alliance and I do not think Oneworld would be of benefit to LBA in Germany.

I have mentioned previously in another thread where I believe development to Germany lies. In the more immediate future, tapping into the Easyjet base at Berlin is preferable but probably requires a bit more groundwork at LBA first (such as another successful winter on Geneva). The other departure points in Germany that LBA should look at/aim for are Hamburg, Frankfurt and Munich.

The obvious operation into Franfurt is a Lufthansa partner to offer connections to the Star Alliance - however, I have stated previously that I do not believe Lufthansa/BMI are wholly commited to LBA. It would be possible to better utilise the based BMI ERJ to offer such a service but it would have to be a compromise (one of Frankfurt/Brussels would not have a well timed morning/evening flight) which would be an issue. I do not think other carriers would be interested in that particular operation.

Hamburg (through Lubeck) has been explored before through Jet2 and was not a success. Ryanair currently operate a small and concentrated operation into Lubeck and, clearly, they would not fancy adding LBA. However, a Q400 type operation into Hamburg Fuhlsbuttel would have more chance of success. Again, Air Berlin have an operating base there, but I would not be confident of attracting them to LBA. Lufthansa do not have a large operation to the UK through any of their partners/subsidiaries and so that would appear to be a dead end also. In any case, increased Lufthansa operation to LBA would depend entirely on the success of a hypothetical link to Frankfurt. I think there are very few options into Hamburg and it would take a significantly risky move for anyone to add it at this time. Certainly, some medium to long term planning would be advantageous.

Munich is a tough proposition. I do not think Lufthansa is a viable option (not enough connectivity at Munich) nor do I think Air Berlin are interested. The low cost option would be the way to go but, so far, Easyjet are the only UK carrier to dip their toe in. Unless Jet2 or Ryanair decide to test the water, I do not see a route into Munich. I think the way in is in the medium to long term. Form a good relationship with Easyjet, perhaps one or 2 W routes may be on the cards ie Berlin-LBA-Munich-LBA-Berlin. I am clutching at straws a little but that is the most obvious way in.

With regards to Scandinavia, the door is possibly a little more open than with Germany. Tony Hallwood mentioned Oslo, Stockholm etc and these are destinations that are already well tested with the likes of Ryanair. It would therefore be beneficial to everyone if Ryanair were the ones who gave it the shot. I would be happier with that situation than if other airlines were brought in as I believe they would be able to keep costs lower and therefore have more chance of success. SAS are well embedded at Manchester and I can't see them having much interest in LBA.

Norwegian are the trump card. They are indeed expanding and have bases at Bergen, Oslo, Stockholm and Copenghagen (the airports I see as the possible candidates). However, the aircraft they operate are unsuitable for the Bergen and Copenhagen route so I would rule them out completely on these routes. The hub and spoke operation has been mentioned and, certainly, Norwegian to Oslo would open up Scandinavia completely and would appear to be the most valuable option. The hurdles are the current low penetration into the UK market and for a hub and spoke operation to work properly, there has to be at least a daily operation. I'm not entirely sure demand is there for a daily rotation.

I think Bergen is something that Eastern Airlines would be most likely to attempt and make possible, possibly as a sector arrangement with the likes of Bristol?

Copenhagen is a problem. The demand is proabably high enough for a daily rotation with a small aircraft. The problem is there are few operators with suitable aircraft. A Q400 is probably too large, especially now Easyjet fly Copenhagen from Manchester and the likes of FlyBe are obviously not interested in LBA expansion. It could be another Eastern project on a Saab 2000, again possibly in some form of sector arrangement.

In terms of further development, I think the most likely additions will come from Jet2 and Ryanair as and when the market stabilises. Other than that, I would like to see LBA try and tap into the Easyjet network a little more - the base at Madrid being uppermost in my mind. I believe that there is reasonable demand for a FlyBE Q400 type operation from LBA with a number of routes in mind (Cork, Shannon, Hamburg, Brussels) if indeed FlyBE were to look at a spot of expansion possibly with sectoring in mind (I see sectoring short haul marginal routes as the key to their future success). A lot has been said about PIA and an increase in capacity to a 777 will be welcomed and it may indeed give (rapidly expanding) Emirates a little more scope to put a Dubai into LBA. As I have said, many times however, the short term plan HAS to be about consolidation - keep what we have - and expansion has to be tentative rather than large scale. The market is currently not stable or fallible enough for large expansion at smaller airports though the LBA catchment area is large and diverse enough to capture markets that are currently not served.

 

[tleeds]

A very large explanation and overview of the development needed whoshotjimmi.

GermanWings, through many reports I have seen, have questioned their ability to work effectively at MAN. Continual duplication of their current routes is said to have affected load figures and I wouldn’t be surprised if GermanWings operated at-least one route from LBA, possibly Berlin. I do agree that their fleet size is a worry and with their current moderate sized fleet, I think that they would definitely more inclined to operate a route from LBA to Berlin instead of MAN to Berlin, if one was more profitable.

I do agree, on your analysis of Air Berlin. The fact that they are a very pricey airline and the fact that they operate to 'Larger' airports within the UK such as London, Manchester etc. would drown any possibility of them at LBA as it just wouldn't work.

easyJet and their continual promotion of being a 'Business Travellers' Airline is something that should not be discounted. They have a fairly well sized presence in Germany and the fact that they are continuing to expand is something that should be taken into consideration. Although, their current size at LBA, discounts any possibility that we are going to see a flood of new routes and large expansion from them, I think that future expansion is possible. More W routes would be needed to convince easyJet that LBA is an airport that has a very large catchment area and subsequenlty, a very large demand for routes into Germany. I think that an A319 one, maybe two or even three routes a week to a large airport such as Berlin and Frankfurt would work for them and the airport. Like you said whoshotjimmi, another successful winter on the Geneva, could be enough to suffice them.

Again, as you said as well, Hamburg Lubeck has been tried from Jet2 and discontinued. I'm not entirely sure why they discontinued the route to Hamburg, but if the demand is there, then the only reason they may have pulled it from their network was that they found a more profitable route elsewhere.
Ryanair do have a small concentrated network into Hamburg Lubeck, but I think its one that they may expand in the future and so, in turn, they may consider it from LBA.

Lufthansa on any route to Germany is a long shot for LBA as, like Air Berlin, they do only focus on the larger airports like London Gatwick/Heathrow and Manchester. They do have some problems at the moment at MAN as they either are short on aircraft to operate routes or they find the need to use a BMI Airbus on routes from MAN a lot more profitable than using their own.

Scandinavian have the aircraft but are again, at MAN. The biggest problem for LBA seems that MAN have the airlines and routes that LBA are currently in search for. They seem pretty happy at MAN and like you said, whoshotjimmi, I can't see them moving.
Norwegian is the trump card!! As I have said previously, I think, on this forum they are the 'low-cost' option to SAS. They seem to be rapidly expanding and their 40 or so Boeing 738's on order could be perfect for an important route to Oslo or Copenhagen, once or twice a week. They seem to be the 'up-and-coming' airline in Scandinavia and I think they would be perfect for LBA.

On the topic of easyJet and their Copenhagen route from MAN, I still think that there is adequate room for a route from LBA, once or twice a week. easyJet currently use an A320 on the rotations, on certain days and they wouldn't do that if they couldn’t fill it. The fact that the only free aircraft maybe the A320 at that time when the Copenhagen route seems viable, is a difficult one. Again if they couldn't fill the A320, I don’t think they would use it.

 

[White Heather]

One thing that we can be certain of is that LBA (specifically Tony Hallwood) will do their/his homework on which routes are viable before even approaching an airline officially with a business case. They have made it clear that tempting an airline into LBA and on to a new and unproven route, only for it to fail, is a recipe for disaster and when that happens, particularly in the current economic climate and with such high oil prices, there is every risk that it will be a very long time before any airlines tries the route again.

There is no doubt that the demand is there for a number of the routes mentioned above, but airlines are so reluctant to take a chance at the moment, so I think Tony will have his work cut out to get too much in the near future unless it is through Ryanair. I don't think any of the routes mentioned currently fit in to Jet2's business plan, although I do think that Easyjet could be one to watch in the future, particularly in view of their previous links with both Tony Hallwood and John Parkin via Bristol and Newcastle.

 

[whoshotjimmi]

I also forgot to mention in my previous post that numbers from Doncaster to Poland have been reasonably decent and are certainly worth looking at. There is a good polish community across Yorkshire and demand is there. I believe the likes of Katowice, Poznan and Warsaw would be good additions. Luring Wizz Air away from Donny would be nice as they clearly have the Polish market in their pocket already and would bring their demand and knowledge of the routes with them. If not, a Ryanair rotation would be practical utilising the based a/c and a bit of rejigging of non based. I think the routes would be a hit from LBA and give a little more inbound traffic. This in turn would help connecting bus activity etc which, apparently, is still under utilised.