Route Development & Rumours

[User0001]

Re: Potential Routes

since none of us, even World_Rep's informant actually know what might happen in the future

That is true, absolutly no-one on this planet can predict the future, but, I also know EK have no intention whatsoever to operate LBA-DXB at the moment, and I doubt they will for the next 5-6 years at least. Maybe if MAN goes 6-7 daily, then EK may consider it, but, dont hold your breath for an EK route,

 

[White Heather]

Re: Potential Routes

Hi World_Rep

I certainly hope that statement isn't true as I would consider that there is plenty of time for which EK might change their mind and operate from LBA - either because they want to, or because they are losing passengers to another airline who has decided to do what they won't.

I am sure those of us are pro LBA will continue to hope that our directors can find a way to get a service to Dubai, and if it isn't Emirates, then anyone else will do. As per my previous post, we have heard all this before from PIA.

 

[User0001]

Re: Potential Routes

I certainly hope that statement isn't true as I would consider that there is plenty of time between in which EK might change their mind and operate from LBA

No, 5-6 years is what we call the 'realistic window of change', so thats generally how far the bulk planning goes. Whats the point of in depth forecasts for 10 years time, anything could happen in that time and you would have to change all your plans again if they did. Yes, there is a bit of foreward planning past that stage, but not down to the 'nitty gritty' details.

or because they are losing passengers to another airline who has decided to do what they won't

Have you read any of the press releases regarding the MAN 3rd daily service? I think you will find the exact reverse is happening and EK are struggling to keep up with demand ex-MAN, so, loosing passengers to other airlines, hmmm, dont think so.

As per my previous post, we have heard all this before from PIA

You cannot compare what PIA have done to what EK may do. They are completely different airlines, with completely different business models and completely different management styles. Thats like biting into a banana and expecting it to taste like an orange, its just a ludicrus statement.
Even down to MAN ops, PIA/EK are so so different. PIA go for O&D, EK go for transfer, EK have invested in F class and lounges, PIA havent. So, just because PIA have gone and opened an LBA operation, dont expect EK to follow.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Potential Routes

In the interest of keeping the peace can people avoid the use of words that are provocative. It might also be a good idea if people read the forum guidelines with particular reference to paragraph 2.1

 

[lbaspotter]

Re: Potential Routes

Hi

If I’m right in thinking don't ryanair currently serve Marrakesh in Morocco from some of there UK bases?

Surely this might also be a good additional to LBA's route destinations along with Cape Verdy Islands as you mentioned Aviador as a furture charter destination..

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Potential Routes

If I’m right in thinking don't ryanair currently serve Marrakesh in Morocco from some of there UK bases?

Yes, from Bristol, East Midlands, Edinburgh, Luton and Stansted.

 

[White Heather]

Re: Flybe

This is exactly what happened some years ago when BA Citiflyer Express pulled the route. That was also 'doing well' but not well enough to save it, and now the same again. I would imagine that the fact that Flybe don't properly base their Dash 8 at LBA will also increase their costs operating the route, and make it less viable. Then there are the fuel charges, and the general malaise in the aviation industry.

In my view, LBA should turn their attention to getting an airline to operate to LCY from LBA to serve London itself, using nothing bigger than a 50 seat turbo prop. OK that route failed before when BMi played with it for a while, but the times were poor and at that time we had LHR too. Now we have nothing at all, and if anyone operates LBA to LCY with good frequencies and sensible fares that compete with the railways, they at least have a chance of making it work. As previously stated though, the only route that is likely to really work in terms of significant passenger numbers would be a BA shuttle type operation providing ongoing intercontinental links, although even that could have a negative affect on other LBA interlining services through AMS (KLM) and Brussels (BMi).

I wonder if this announcement came as a shock to LBA management? Only two weeks ago at the Consultative committee meeting, there wasn't the slightest hint that the route was to be pulled - in fact there were things said that suggested that all was well with it. They must have known that the landing fees were going up at LGW and I do wonder if this is a very sudden decision by Flybe. After all, they put the route on sale and took bookings. It would be interesting to know when LGW announced its new landing charges. Personally I expect it is a combination of factors - increased landing charges, + increased fuel charges, + not quite enough passengers to make it sustainable.

I hope they find another airline to operate it, but I doubt it, unless they can somehow persuade Easyjet into LBA on a bigger scale and to include LGW, but if it didn't pay on a Dash 8, what chance of it paying on an A319?

 

[LBAYORKIE]

Re: Flybe

Why would anyone want to fly to LCY?

There are no long haul connections, there are some short haul ones but these can be reached more cheaply from Leeds via AMS.

If you want to go to the financial district you would take the train, there is no need to turn up an hour before- you can just hop on. Leed's financial businesses are all in the centre of town so its simple to get to the station- far easier than getting to LBA. It is often cheaper too!

Leeds is better connected by rail to London than anywhere else in the country so why even think of starting a service to LCY? It's the last place you would choose.

As stated previously, it's got to be BA to LHR and as this is not going to happen it' the end of the line for a Leeds-London link.

ps. I have flown to LCY on every service that has ever operated to there from LBA- all were short lived.

LbaYorkie

 

[whoshotjimmi]

Re: Flybe

With regards to LCY, BA Cityflyer have new aircraft due for delivery in the next few months - E190SR, though they do operate E170. Could a 170 work LBA - LCY? I'm not sure. A 50 seat would put it firmly in the CityJet Fokker 50 range but do they have spare aircraft to send to LBA at reasonable times and frequencies? Again, probably not. It is interesting to note, however, that less passengers passed through LCY than LBA in 2010 - surely a bargaining tool regarding any landing fees etc given the recent decline of LCY. The transport links at the London end are now also much better than when it was last operated.

With regards to BA on the GLA-LBA-LHR, it makes a little more sense but would that mean the end of BMI on the GLA?

I would think the only way EasyJet would send in a LGW is to connect to other Gatwick services. But then it would have to pay its way and it would effectively mean no further Easyjet activity in Leeds.

To my mind, FlyBe were the only carrier who could make a non-Heathrow London service work. They couldn't, so, unless BA can find a way of sending in a LHR, it is probably game over.

 

[lbaspotter]

Re: Flybe

What LBA really needs is a British Airways type shuttle service into London Heathrow so to offer passengers worldwide connections though terminal 5. This way you got a good chance to fill an A319, 2 to 3 times daily with interlining passengers and the rest with your point to point punters.

A direct point to point only London route will not stand on its own ground. The East coast mainline trains between Leeds interchange and King Cross Station are getting faster all the time and now it only take about 2 hours, This is hard for me to say but I tend to agree that it now makes more sense to travel by train if you want to go to central London.
Yes flybe have said they were happy with there passenger figures carrying 50,000 last year. But with both Heathrow and Gatwick now both increasing landing fees that is not helping LBA fight at the moment. It’s not worth airlines flying half empty Dash 8’s or other types of regional airliners on short domestic runs at cheap fares.
Same can be said for either Jet2 or Easyjet trying Gatwick, Ryanair into Stansted or BA cityflyer into the ever expensive and restricted London City Airport. I think they would just have problem trying to fill a 2 to 3 daily E195, B737 or A319 type aircraft with just point to point passengers..

So my own gut feeling says that it’s BA or nothing. But that is going to take some doing to get a deal. It may have to even involve some kind of subsidy or discounted Landing and handling fees by Bridgepoint.

 

[pug]

Re: Flybe

With BMI having just dropped its GLA operation it could be the unfortunate end of region to London flights ignoring Manchester and Newcastle. With slots at LHR already at a premium so putting the prices onto the passenger, and now having the government introducing more taxes squeezing out domestic airtravel, I find a LBA-London route very unlikely. Perhaps something can be worked out with SEN at best? Problem still stands though, and perhaps aircraft are simply needed on more profitable higher yielding routes.

It would however be nice to see BA return to LBA, at a push would BA perhaps consider routing a couple of the ABZ flights via LBA? I suspect it would put an unwanted added cost and time burden on them so unlikely, but i thought I would put it out there.

 

[eastcoaster]

Re: Potential Routes

London city flights are a non starter. An early flight down may carry a decent load, but the first flight northbound carries nothing. Simply, no one lives in the vicinity of London city, or what I should say, not enough people who could sustain a service to Leeds live locally to LCY. Neither are there any interlining flights that bring people into LCY that people would use. When BMI last did the the LCY, they carried reasonable loads down on a morning, but returned with less than 10 usually. Same applies in the evening. Last flight north carries reasonable loads, last flight south, no one. If you have a late afternoon and then an evening flight too, all this does is dilute the reasonable load that went down in the morning from one plane into two on the northbounds. The train just makes more sense everytime.
The only thing that may work is as has been said, a BA only route into Heathrow. But, can they afford to pay the B747 landing fee for an A320, when all the passengers on board have got free add on fares for their One World flight long haul out of Heathrow? I fear the internal UK flights to London are over, unless you live 4 or 500 miles north in Scotland.

 

[rmac]

Re: Potential Routes

I have to agree with Eastcoaster that flights in England to the capital are on there way out even from Newcastle and Manchester unless something can be done to reverse the high landing charges at LHR or LGW. The third runway at Heathrow would have been a big help, but that is no more.
To make it worthwhile for an airline to operate to the capital you need volume, that is 1000's of passengers. Take EDI to Gatwick EasyJet have 3 flights a day and everytime I have used it they are nearly always full. But the price, often about £40 is usually better than the train. Also easyjet are up against BA to LGW and LHR, BMi to LHR and then there is London City. And against all this competition EasyJet still offer 3 or 4 flights a day to STN and LTN !
So could EasyJet offer LBA to Gatwick 3 times a day? and make it profitable? A tall order indeed.
What about BA to LHR terminal 5. Good advantage for connecting passengers but how long could they carry the losses until such time as it became profitable. Is Newcastle profitable even now after all these years, so what hope for Leeds!
I think there is a fundamental problem in the UK with flights to the capital. If you live in Germany, Spain, France and other similar size countries most regional cities/airports have flights into their capital or main/ intercontinental hub.. something which is disappearing here in the UK including Scotland. (that includes Prestwick, Glasgow and Aberdeen all seeing reductions, Edinburgh being the notable exception)
I would love to see a LBA - LHR start up but I have my doubts despite LBA's comments about a possible Heathrow link!

 

[Aviador]

Re: Potential Routes

I have a perfect solution, what about Southend?

Not an obvious place to fly to but the airport has recently undergone expansion with new terminal and apron facilities. There's a railway station right in front of the terminal building linking it with central London. It is rumoured that Easyjet is thought to be about to announce plans to operate from there so I don't see why they (or Flybe) couldn't look at flying to Southend from Leeds Bradford? The on site train station and lower landing fees makes Southend airport a genuine alternative to the other London airports.

Visit the Forums4airports Southend Forum

 

[lbaspotter]

Re: Potential Routes

The problem with Southend is that you have no connecting flights fo interlining passengers to connect onto Long Haul routes and as has been mentioned any airline will struggle to fill a point to point Leeds/Bradford to London only route with anything bigger than a 50 seater aircraft.

At the moment there only 3 routes from Southend Airport. Galway & Waterford in Ireland by Aer Arann and a summer only service to Jersey by flybe. Who in there right mind would be will to take the risk??

Plus passengers will still have a 30 minute train ride to get into Central London. So the East Coast mainline Trains will still be a quicker option from Leeds to Kings Cross.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

Re: Potential Routes

Still does not answer the question, why would anyone want to fly to LCY, when rail service is so good.

The only way to generate sufficient passengers is if there are lots of connecting flights.

LbaYorkie

 

[michael]

Re: Potential Routes

Ok, so it appears we have 3 separate issues with their own solutions required.
1. For those wanting to go into central London use the train.
2. For those wanting long haul who are not going to hoike their cases across London town to either LGW or LHR use either AMS or Paris CDG.
3. For those heading across the pond a hub is needed so either Jet2 757 to EWR or IAD, or, Continental/American 757 to either EWR or IAD. Considering American use a 757 on Manchester - Chicago I'm assuming LBA to IAD wouldn't be a problem?

There, everyone happy, job sorted!!

If only..................lol

 

[Bigman]

Re: Potential Routes

LCY is a good option. Look at how many corporate HO's are based around Canada Water and Canary Wharf. Also ideal for the olympics next year. An Eastern J41 would be ideal.

How can anyone say we have a 'good' rail service from Leeds. It's crap!!! One fast train a dayand only 2 an hour.

I am sick and tired of people using the rail argument as an excuse to knock down any links to London. Manchester is closer to London...has 3 faster trains and hour, but still has BA and BMI to LHR, so rail travel cannot be the overriding factor.

Anyway, why not give Luton a bash? Great rail connections to the South and South East from there as well as central and south London

 

[lbaspotter]

Re: Potential Routes

Eastern Would never go back to London City. They tried it out off Newacstle a couple off years ago and it also failed.

Both bmi and Jersey European have also tried London City from LBA in the past and both struggled. As has been said already the early morning southbound flights do well but you've also got to figure out how to sell the service for people coming north on the first northbound service to LBA.
You then have the same problem in the evening. The Southbound will go half empty but the Nortbounds will quite good. How can anyone afford to run a service like that especailly with the fees that London City charge nowa days Bigman?

Getting peaktime slots into City airport is going to be really hard to get as well. And if even if either Eastern or Cityjet did try it out i can tell you right now that flight prices wont be cheap. No way near as cheap as flybe were offering to Gatwick. So you wont fill the aircraft with just point to point passengers.

Also do London City allow Jetstream 41 operations in??

 

[pug]

Re: Potential Routes

As I said in an earlier post, dont you think SEN is the only real possibility now? It will have fast links into central London (quicker than LHR Im lead to believe) and will not be subject to slot restrictions etc.

Unlike some people on here, I do not believe passenger numbers are the problem, the government are putting a squeeze on the regional to London market, and with LGW and LHR raising fees these airlines like FlyBE will be looking for more profitable routes to use their aircraft on.